One of the major constraints for ramping up ancillary generation is the availability to purchase and move large amounts of natural gas. There is usually a constraint of pipeline capacity during these heavy use times with very little available gas on the spot market free to move.

Yes. A friend of mine is a natural gas trader and his comments were:

Quote:

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production generally lower than pre-COVID, LNG exports higher, more people are home so heating load higher, production freeze-offs exacerbated in Texas and surrounding areas because we're not prepared for such low temps...the market has been generally lulled to sleep because so many warm winters in a row.

And, Texas has been retiring coal and installing gas so higher reliance on gas for power, plus higher reliance for gas for heat equals blowout NG prices.

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We need to all hope Murphy stays the hell away and we don't have some kind of compressor failure exacerbating all of this.

XXXVII said:

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gonemaroon said:

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There's over 10,000MW of real-time thermal outages in ERCOT right now. There has been about that amount all month. Lake Hubbard, Midlothian, Forney, part of Graham all on outage - compliments of Vistra energy and ERCOT to allow massive outages in the middle of winter.

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Are those all natural gas or coal generators?

Are you saying ERCOT let them take long term outages for maintenance or something during the winter?

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ERCOT doesn't really "let". But the system does seem to penalize risky decisions occasionally . Can't blame them for planning outages throughout the year with normal winter prices as low as they are. But it sucks to miss out on a day like today when you have to go buy replacement power for your consumers at 100x normal.

I won't comment much but I'll say that those plants mentioned above don't take planned outages in January typically.

Let's just say that the spring followed by fall are the best times to actually perform planned maint outages.

Aggie_2463 said:

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I won't comment much but I'll say that those plants mentioned above don't take planned outages in January typically.

Let's just say that the spring followed by fall are the best times to actually perform planned maint outages.

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Fun fact, I actually got a tour inside the containment facility during refueling operations at the South Texas Nuclear Project one spring. Yeah, they had a litany of other upgrades and maintenance operations underway while that reactor was offline.

richardag said:

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Thank you President Jimmy Carter.

For those not old enough to remember this idiot made sure to ban construction of new homes with natural gas. So now there are tens of thousands of all electric homes throughout Texas needlessly. It was later revealed the US had 27 trillion cubic feet if known reserves of natural gas.

Another liberal who was incredibly wrong.

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I bought a new house in a new subdivision near Memphis in 2005 with natural gas.

No ban in place then, roughly 30 years after Carter.

Your data point doesn't align with that. Why?

Our power just got cut in 78732

Kenneth_2003 said:

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Aggie_2463 said:

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I won't comment much but I'll say that those plants mentioned above don't take planned outages in January typically.

Let's just say that the spring followed by fall are the best times to actually perform planned maint outages.

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Fun fact, I actually got a tour inside the containment facility during refueling operations at the South Texas Nuclear Project one spring. Yeah, they had a litany of other upgrades and maintenance operations underway while that reactor was offline.

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Yeah as the coal burners start to go so do the 2 month outages with 1,000 people on site hitting and getting it. Years ago people could make a living just chasing the spring / fall outages and get some time off in the summer. Those days are a thing of the past now

combustion artist said:

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Our power just got cut in 78732

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Do they announce it and give a time frame? One thing that can minimize harm of such is to know its duration and when, so already switched over to backups or other measures taken. (Naturally outages due to collapsing wires and poles are not an example)

I dont think it would be ERCOT cutting power yet. It is probably a normal weather related outage. I am in the industry and have been getting emails about outages all over but usually get put back in service rather quickly

correct, the big generators took outages in the middle of winter and ERCOT was fine and dandy with it.

MemphisAg1 said:

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richardag said:

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Thank you President Jimmy Carter.

For those not old enough to remember this idiot made sure to ban construction of new homes with natural gas. So now there are tens of thousands of all electric homes throughout Texas needlessly. It was later revealed the US had 27 trillion cubic feet if known reserves of natural gas.

Another liberal who was incredibly wrong.

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I bought a new house in a new subdivision near Memphis in 2005 with natural gas.

No ban in place then, roughly 30 years after Carter.

Your data point doesn't align with that. Why?

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That sounds like something Carter might do, but Carter hasn't been President in 40 years.

I've done some work at a couple of coal burning power plants over the last few months. Over the last 1.5 years actually. Both are NRG plants here in Texas. One was completely down last fall (unexpected outage), but both units are back up and running. The other plant has coal burning and natural gas units and all are operational as far as I know, but there are some maintenance projects that are currently underway.

what was wrong with Parish back in Aug-Sept of 2019?

It looks like mainly gas is out on the grid and was in outage all month but the be fair / the power prices were in the ****ter and the weathermen were all calling an end to winter early.

combustion artist said:

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Our power just got cut in 78732

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Did they give you notice?

aginlakeway said:

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combustion artist said:

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Our power just got cut in 78732

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Did they give you notice?

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Yeah, they flash the lights.

gonemaroon said:

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what was wrong with Parish back in Aug-Sept of 2019?

It looks like mainly gas is out on the grid and was in outage all month but the be fair / the power prices were in the ****ter and the weathermen were all calling an end to winter early.

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Well, the weathermen said back in September that we would have a warm winter due to a strong La Nina in place

These arctic blasts are supposed to be cut off from the lower 48, except for the far upper Midwest

This one broke through

Ah well

Squadron7 said:

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aginlakeway said:

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combustion artist said:

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Our power just got cut in 78732

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Did they give you notice?

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Yeah, they flash the lights.

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And then they turn off!

I wonder if the on-demand power generators will help with this event. My company installed a huge emergency diesel generator which can be turned on for these kind of events to push power back to the grid. The company gets paid a pretty penny for it too.

gonemaroon said:

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correct, the big generators took outages in the middle of winter and ERCOT was fine and dandy with it.

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The way I understand ERCOT's spot pricing is that there is no staggering the spot price based on volume. If one buyer buys one watt at the most expensive price, that's the spot price for the whole market on that 5 minute interval. It incentivizes major players to collude to sandbag capacity, drive up the spot price, and then they all make a killing. ERCOTs official statement is they are okay with it because there isn't any margin or insurance built into the price of electricity. The producers need to be able to pay for maintenance and upgrades while the market doesn't really allow for that on the negotiated contract side. So there is willingness to push for peaks from the producer.

Is that correct?

PearlJammin said:

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I wonder if the on-demand power generators will help with this event. My company installed a huge emergency diesel generator which can be turned on for these kind of events to push power back to the grid. The company gets paid a pretty penny for it too.

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I've seen these outfits at buccees and HEBs. Pretty slick business proposition.

Back in 1978 the coal piles at coal burning plants in the midwest froze up and shut coal plants down. The grid frequency east of the Rockies dipped below 60 cycles/second, and If any other big generating plant went down the whole grid might have collapsed.

I do t think it was a rolling blackout. I think just an outage. Power back on after two hours

According to the NRC website all 4 nuclear units in Texas were at full power Friday morning.

mullokmotx said:

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According to the NRC website all 4 nuclear units in Texas were at full power Friday morning.

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They better damn well be, and if several of them trip offline we are really screwed.

one MEEN Ag said:

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PearlJammin said:

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I wonder if the on-demand power generators will help with this event. My company installed a huge emergency diesel generator which can be turned on for these kind of events to push power back to the grid. The company gets paid a pretty penny for it too.

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I've seen these outfits at buccees and HEBs. Pretty slick business proposition.

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Trane has an industrial division dedicated to this. We save hundreds of thousands by simply having it, and then get paid on top of that should we be requested to use it. Doesn't count against our environmental permit as an emergency generator either. Certainly a win/win.

Correct and you can buy futures on the exchange and manipulate your generation for profits.

PUCT hasn't investigated anyone in my life time so far.

one MEEN Ag said:

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gonemaroon said:

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correct, the big generators took outages in the middle of winter and ERCOT was fine and dandy with it.

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The way I understand ERCOT's spot pricing is that there is no staggering the spot price based on volume. If one buyer buys one watt at the most expensive price, that's the spot price for the whole market on that 5 minute interval. It incentivizes major players to collude to sandbag capacity, drive up the spot price, and then they all make a killing. ERCOTs official statement is they are okay with it because there isn't any margin or insurance built into the price of electricity. The producers need to be able to pay for maintenance and upgrades while the market doesn't really allow for that on the negotiated contract side. So there is willingness to push for peaks from the producer.

Is that correct?

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I believe it is a 15 minute interval.

PearlJammin said:

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one MEEN Ag said:

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PearlJammin said:

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I wonder if the on-demand power generators will help with this event. My company installed a huge emergency diesel generator which can be turned on for these kind of events to push power back to the grid. The company gets paid a pretty penny for it too.

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I've seen these outfits at buccees and HEBs. Pretty slick business proposition.

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Trane has an industrial division dedicated to this. We save hundreds of thousands by simply having it, and then get paid on top of that should we be requested to use it. Doesn't count against our environmental permit as an emergency generator either. Certainly a win/win.

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Another bonus is they have to run them to burn the fuel up and test them. Getting paid to do what you would anyways is a pretty big bonus.

richardag said:

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Fenrir said:

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Heat pumps can move somewhere between 1.5 to 3 times the amount of thermal energy as they consume. Electric resistance heaters are ~100% efficient so they produce the same amount of thermal energy that they consume. Heat pumps are far more efficient at moving heat, problem is they are all going to be frozen in this weather so heating will rely on gas or electric resistance heaters.

Something like 60-70% of homes in Texas are electric heat. Those homes are about to be running their electric heaters non-stop because the temperature difference would be like having 120-130 degree summers and they're combatting it with less efficient equipment.

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Thanks for the reply. I was just assuming homes heated with natural gas would use less electricity in extreme winter conditions than that same home would use in extreme heat in the summer.

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Heat pumps in freezing weather run all the time and then as a bonus, your electric elements come on as well. No thanks.

Friend of mine works on the retail side and told me yesterday that yes, it is a 15 minute interval.

IIRC she's told me that your smart meter collects 5 min data but it currently isn't all transmitted to the utility. Her company is trying to get more to report the 5 minute data so they can create better inputs into the market and ultimately develop profiles allowing consumers to get better pricing based on their exact usage.

Your paragraph has some true statements in it but in a vacuum isn't particularly good or accurate at describing the entire situation. In Calif back prior to 2001 it would be more true. The CA laws said that the last spot bid price had to be taken if it was needed to balance supply and demand BEFORE any demand side operations could take place. Most of your larger traders aren't buying much in the spot market AS LONG AS THEIR ASSETS PERFORM and CONTRACTS HOLD. There are possibilities to make a lot in the spot if you have some uncontracted excess capacity and the price spikes because of unplanned outages or worst case gaming of outages AND you can actually deliver it through an uncongested transmission path. Remember, high spot prices in the market are supposed to signal a supply/demand imbalance and if those high prices last enough hours during a year that is supposed to signal the need for new generation assets if they can come in and get permits to build. (CA didn't like it when people told them their market price was signaling they needed new generation. THAT is NOT the answer we will allow in CA!. Well why did you go to a market pricing structure if you weren't going to listen to the market pricing signals?)

As CA and then FERC found out you aren't gaming the system;

-If you shut a unit down even if it could run and has existing generation capacity but no transmission capacity due to congestion to send it anywhere.

-You are an interruptible customer of the nat gas transmission system and the nat gas folks decide to interrupt generating plants to keep the pressure up in the nat gas system to move the gas to heat homes and keep voters warm.

-If you've already reached and exceeded your yearly SOx and NOx emission levels for your unit and you decide you don't want to buy credits because the bad publicity for "ignoring environmental rules and hemoraging cash is a no brainer.

Now boiler tube leaks and mechanical problems that don't cause a unit to trip but are significant operating concerns somewhere along the line are more tricky. How many and how large of boiler tube leaks are enough to impact unit efficiency enough where it really isn't worth running it from an economical standpoint until it is fixed or doing more damage to my boiler asset than helping the grid? What if your scheduled planned maintenance period is next week? Shut down early if the ISO will let you? Keep running and risk more damage to the asset. These are real world ME questions sitting back there behind the EE's trying to keep the lights on.

Well, one can hope that this type of event will help connect the dots for the dense-headed people that think we can casually toss fossil fuel generation to the wayside.

Little Rock Ag said:

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Well, one can hope that this type of event will help connect the dots for the dense-headed people that think we can casually toss fossil fuel generation to the wayside.

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It won't. The economics in a deregulated market don't support building for a once every ~100 year event.