cone said:

---

you're right

I'm nowhere near as alarmed as I was in late February

the NYC serology study and the hospitalization rates during their outbreak was a massive game changer and has barely been reported as such

1% IFR is still really grim, but it's not hospitalizing young people at the +10% rates that seemed so potentially cataclysmic

now the problem has reduced to one of slowing the overall spread via low cost approach and diverting all resources to protecting the vulnerable (since we can effectively risk rank now). of course, we don't have the will to do that - but the overall problem has been greatly simplified whether we like it or not

see below from Spain data

---

Any idea why that shows just over 17,000 deaths while the worldometer site shows over 27,000 for Spain?

chimpanzee said:

---

dBoy99 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

dBoy99 said:

---

Wow, I skimmed over most of Ms. Specht's twitter thread. Sounds a lot like the math experts here on F16. Some of whom have essentially disappeared...

---

Because saying anything on this board is useless when you're met with nothing but strawmen and repeatedly debunked crap. Most of the posters here are the pigeons kicking checkers around and acting like they won something.

---

Oh you mean saying things like there will be exponential growth and then when questioned, just insulting people that they don't understand math? That is useless?

Debunked crap like "Is it really worth destroying our economy?"

Too many experts and smart guys berated and insulted people who questioned the lock downs and the virulence/infectiousness of the virus. Well, wtf happened to them?

---

Yes.

The internet being what it is, there will always be crap information. To the extent people find it compelling, it's usually fairly easily refuted.

When you have information, or compelling questions that are not crap, and all you get in response is an appeal to authority followed by an appeal to emotion to end the discussion, it's going to leave a bad taste in a lot of mouths. A lot of credentialed smart people went as far as they could to scare as many people into compliance as possible. After granting their wishes and subsequently having their approach invalidated, they change the subject, move the goal posts and start the straw manning themselves.

The whole thing looks like political opportunism from top to bottom, executed by people that have no talent or experience to speak of apart from cashing in on crap under the table and shifting blame away from themselves. Trump's response was supposedly racist when he started out, then he was a buffoon for asking people to consider the costs. The virus was no big deal and everyone should go to parades and Chinatown until it wasn't then "the alternative is death" until Georgia, Florida and others didn't play into their hands, and now, some deaths just become unavoidable and while specific .gov actions made the real problems worse while their wet dream police state lockdowns didn't help.

---

Brilliant post

And it wasn't just politicians

"Medical experts" have been a disgrace throughout this ordeal

no idea

but that makes the IFR 1%, which is a good assumption

Captain Pablo said:

---

dBoy99 said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

---

Read this OP again, slowly and think that it was posted 1 week into Trump's "15 days to slow the spread".

OP acted like the zombie apocalypse was imminent. Where's my very disturbing math lesson?

What about a very disturbing lesson in humility?

---

OP has been wetting his pants since February

Just a terrible display from someone who you should be able to take seriously, and trust in

---

OPs job is likely to take data and model it while highlighting assumptions. Not to make decisions.

These are usually two different people. Unfortunately for this go around our decision makers put too much trust in the modelers.

cone said:

---

no idea

but that makes the IFR 1%, which is a good assumption

---

Not for people under 60, or really even under 70.

of course

this thing has a really really fat tail, which is its own set of societal and political problems

we know where it kills like the plague but we're paralyzed to do anything about that

Love it when average Joe's and Jane's give me medical advice.

Hell, I don't trust some of the medical community so why they think I'd listen to a non-medical professional anonymous poster on social media is beyond my understanding.

but 1% is meaningful

it might not mean much to you, but it is meaningful

cone said:

---

but 1% is meaningful

it might not mean much to you, but it is meaningful

---

Is the CoronAids bored down or something?

cone said:

---

but 1% is meaningful

it might not mean much to you, but it is meaningful

---

It's not really meaningful because we don't know the denominator and never will.

Is it 1% or .7%, because that's a pretty big difference when dealing with millions of people. If 50 million people got this, that would be the difference of a 150,000 deaths.

cone said:

---

but 1% is meaningful

it might not mean much to you, but it is meaningful

---

No, it's not. What would be meaningful at all is knowing the increased death rate. Especially since the majority seem to be very old people.

I'm not happy to see anyone die.
But no one gets out of life alive.

Cassius said:

---

cone said:

---

but 1% is meaningful

it might not mean much to you, but it is meaningful

---

It's not really meaningful because we don't know the denominator and never will.

---

And isn't that for like the sickest of the Olds?

Everyone else is pretty much 100% good.

Bruce Almighty said:

---

Is it 1% or .7%, because that's a pretty big difference when dealing with millions of people. If 50 million people got this, that would be the difference of a 150,000 deaths.

---

From the Spain info he posted, under 70 is 0.12% and under 60 is 0.052%

Seems just a little disingenuous to say 1%.

but we do now

we've had the time to do serology studies across the globe

how about 1% dead with the median age in their 70s

Bruce Almighty said:

---

Is it 1% or .7%, because that's a pretty big difference when dealing with millions of people. If 50 million people got this, that would be the difference of a 150,000 deaths.

---

Lots of stuff pointing closer to 0.7%, but it's a big unknown right now. But again, that's much, much lower for most under 65.

A lot don't want to hear it, but this is likely eliminating the last 1-3 years of life for more many folks who weren't lasting longer than that, while doing virtually nothing to 99.95% of everyone else long term.

Here's the number to chew on: 2.8mm die per year. Over 5 years, that's 14 million Americans. Right now, this is predicted to kill 143k by August 4th. Lets even quadruple that to be safe and cover deaths over the next few years beyond the current estimate. Lets say close to 600k.

What percentage of that 600k would have died in the next 5 years? Meaning elderly, people with comorbidities that might not have had much time that this is attacking mostly? My guess? At least half. So instead of 14 million Americans dying the next 5 years. We are looking at 14.3 million, if that.

When you really break it down, even though it sounds heartless, this isn't even a blip on the radar. It will be non registerable in terms of total deaths within 3, 4, or at most 5 years. No, this doesn't mean it's "okay". This doesn't mean I'm fine with 600k dying from it. It sucks all the way around. But perspective is nice when talking about 329 million people completely changing their lifestyles over something,

cone said:

---

how about 1% dead with the median age in their 70s

---

What's the offset from those who'd die anyway?
Cause that's a normal year in the USA

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Quote:

---

Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population
Life expectancy: 78.6 years

---

I mean if you're hot then you're hot. Hazmat gear sucks so I get it. She knew it was see through though.

ugh bum hotlink

So did we hit ten million cases three weeks ago? I'm not good at math but I heard it was inevitable. #science

GAC06 said:

---

So did we hit ten million cases three weeks ago? I'm not good at math but I heard it was inevitable. #science

---

Just ran a simple math formula on my excel. Says two more weeks.

coastsrs said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

So did we hit ten million cases three weeks ago? I'm not good at math but I heard it was inevitable. #science

---

Just ran a simple math formula on my excel. Says two more weeks.

---

Your "model" is incorrect. We are currently at roughly 5M cases in roughly 5 months. Logic says we will be at 10M in 10M. However, you have to account for the exponentential growth calculated as follows (for those slow at math, please try to keep up): sqrt((e^(PI()) * {Number of Cases} / [Number of Deaths])/{Number of Projected Deaths})

I do not have a calculator available, but doing this math in my head yields roughly 13.9836 days. I think looking at this it is easy to say the original models were spot on.

Assumptions:

1) The math is exponential
2) The number of deaths < number of cases
3) Quarantine for everyone over the age of 2
4) Mitigation stays into effect for the remainder of the summer
5) 13.9836 can be rounded up to 14 days (or 2 weeks).

GAC06 said:

---

So did we hit ten million cases three weeks ago? I'm not good at math but I heard it was inevitable. #science

---

That prediction was made 8 weeks ago. So we should have hit 10 million cases 7 weeks ago...

Lol can't tell if serious or not.

If serious, wow.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

---

I mean if you're hot then you're hot. Hazmat gear sucks so I get it. She knew it was see through though.

---

Well that is completely sexist. If she wants to wear a bikini under her work clothes; why does that matter to anyone. I plan to wear my leather thong exclusively under my PPE in solidarity! ....The struggle is real!!!

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

---

But how many recoveries worldwide? That number is top secret!

any how many mild cases?
what is the percentage that are mild?

it is around 98-99% using Worldometers

Nuclear Scramjet said:

---

I mean if you're hot then you're hot. Hazmat gear sucks so I get it. She knew it was see through though.

---

Zero deaths in her ward but oddly no complete recoveries either as her patients seem to take a turn for the worst immediately before discharge.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

---

I mean if you're hot then you're hot. Hazmat gear sucks so I get it. She knew it was see through though.

---

Haha. Find the hands on the old guy in the background, and note his eyeline.