I think Duncan on the COVID board has a similar insight but from the other perspective. Not to put words in his mouth but he thinks we may have gotten through the first wave too easy only to unleash quicker moving second wave of infections when things open back up. If true, a deeper and longer economic downturn is totally possible as people become even more fearful and more robust restrictions are implemented.Quote:
Now I fear the "other worst". We were so effective that it will take much, much longer to achieve herd immunity and when we finally open-up we will have done so much damage to the economy that we won't. Jobs lost will take years to come back, not months.
COVID exponential growth in full swing
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Last: 3 yr ago by texagbeliever
Yup, open up and watch what happens in two weeks.
barnyard1996 said:
Yup, open up and watch what happens in two weeks.
Stay Home.
Bruce Almighty
Joined:
Mar 25, 2011
Posts:
37,001
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Death merchants gonna death merchant.
Pelayo, I always appreciate your posts but there ARE people who are cheering on higher and higher numbers so they can justify their position on all of this.
Truth is, it's nowhere near as bad as they projected (thank God), but they always come back and say "two more weeks. The **** is really going to hit the fan soon. Just you see."
We cannot continue to destroy our economy at this rate. There is a point where the cure really is worse than the disease itself.
There are plenty of people who are cheering for this economy to tank because they have serious issues with Trump and they have proven they will not let anything stand in the way of that hatred nor their goal of getting rid of him. Anyone who denies that is truly in denial.
And I believe we can walk and chew gum at the same time. The examples have been provided time and time again but the media and death merchants apparently love this free trial version of Socialism and what it is doing to the country.
It's time to get back to work, and now.
Pelayo, I always appreciate your posts but there ARE people who are cheering on higher and higher numbers so they can justify their position on all of this.
Truth is, it's nowhere near as bad as they projected (thank God), but they always come back and say "two more weeks. The **** is really going to hit the fan soon. Just you see."
We cannot continue to destroy our economy at this rate. There is a point where the cure really is worse than the disease itself.
There are plenty of people who are cheering for this economy to tank because they have serious issues with Trump and they have proven they will not let anything stand in the way of that hatred nor their goal of getting rid of him. Anyone who denies that is truly in denial.
And I believe we can walk and chew gum at the same time. The examples have been provided time and time again but the media and death merchants apparently love this free trial version of Socialism and what it is doing to the country.
It's time to get back to work, and now.
You stay homebarnyard1996 said:
Stay Home.
The rest of he world needs to get moving
treston58 said:
Death merchants gonna death merchant.
Pelayo, I always appreciate your posts but there ARE people who are cheering on higher and higher numbers so they can justify their position on all of this.
Truth is, it's nowhere near as bad as they projected (thank God), but they always come back and say "two more weeks. The **** is really going to hit the fan soon. Just you see."
We cannot continue to destroy our economy at this rate. There is a point where the cure really is worse than the disease itself.
There are plenty of people who are cheering for this economy to tank because they have serious issues with Trump and they have proven they will not let anything stand in the way of that hatred nor their goal of getting rid of him. Anyone who denies that is truly in denial.
And I believe we can walk and chew gum at the same time. The examples have been provided time and time again but the media and death merchants apparently love this free trial version of Socialism and what it is doing to the country.
It's time to get back to work, and now.
They can keep saying "two more weeks" until the daily totals of cases and deaths actually start going down. Until then they are right, wait two more weeks and things will look worse than today.
You as well.k2aggie07 said:
I've appreciated your input throughout this. Thanks for your insight.
This one is different. It's all fun and games when we are talking about Schiff embarrassing himself or Trump's embellishments. There's a great editorial in Science today about the failure in the integration of science and economics in our response.
Aegrescit medendo
tysker said:I think Duncan on the COVID board has a similar insight but from the other perspective. Not to put words in his mouth but he thinks we may have gotten through the first wave too easy only to unleash quicker moving second wave of infections when things open back up. If true, a deeper and longer economic downturn is totally possible as people become even more fearful and more robust restrictions are implemented.Quote:
Now I fear the "other worst". We were so effective that it will take much, much longer to achieve herd immunity and when we finally open-up we will have done so much damage to the economy that we won't. Jobs lost will take years to come back, not months.
Yes. There is an inverse relationship between the height of the first peak and the second in some of the more pessimistic models. Could definitely be the case.
Aegrescit medendo
Look at this graph of texas deaths/day.Toptierag2018 said:treston58 said:
Death merchants gonna death merchant.
Pelayo, I always appreciate your posts but there ARE people who are cheering on higher and higher numbers so they can justify their position on all of this.
Truth is, it's nowhere near as bad as they projected (thank God), but they always come back and say "two more weeks. The **** is really going to hit the fan soon. Just you see."
We cannot continue to destroy our economy at this rate. There is a point where the cure really is worse than the disease itself.
There are plenty of people who are cheering for this economy to tank because they have serious issues with Trump and they have proven they will not let anything stand in the way of that hatred nor their goal of getting rid of him. Anyone who denies that is truly in denial.
And I believe we can walk and chew gum at the same time. The examples have been provided time and time again but the media and death merchants apparently love this free trial version of Socialism and what it is doing to the country.
It's time to get back to work, and now.
They can keep saying "two more weeks" until the daily totals of cases and deaths actually start going down. Until then they are right, wait two more weeks and things will look worse than today.
The numbers are going down....but the projection for the very next day is estimating that it will explode tomorrow...always the next day as they try to force fit the ridiculous numbers into an ever declining problem.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas
Counting on doing something different in the interim period to prevent the second wave. No idea how feasible that is, with massive testing etc..
I was being sarcastic Captain.Captain Pablo said:You stay homebarnyard1996 said:
Stay Home.
The rest of he world needs to get moving
Oh you cannot prevent the second wave, the second wave of fear will be loosed upon us.k2aggie07 said:
Counting on doing something different in the interim period to prevent the second wave. No idea how feasible that is, with massive testing etc..
It came upon us
Wave on wave.....
Wave on wave.....
Half of us are getting this at a minimum. Period. Let's get it on.k2aggie07 said:
Counting on doing something different in the interim period to prevent the second wave. No idea how feasible that is, with massive testing etc..
I dont disagree that it's a possibility, but there is a happy medium that can be found between life before COVID19 and a Shelter in Place order.tysker said:I think Duncan on the COVID board has a similar insight but from the other perspective. Not to put words in his mouth but he thinks we may have gotten through the first wave too easy only to unleash quicker moving second wave of infections when things open back up. If true, a deeper and longer economic downturn is totally possible as people become even more fearful and more robust restrictions are implemented.Quote:
Now I fear the "other worst". We were so effective that it will take much, much longer to achieve herd immunity and when we finally open-up we will have done so much damage to the economy that we won't. Jobs lost will take years to come back, not months.
A large number, perhaps a majority, will still probably wear masks in public, be more careful about washing their hands, try their best to distance themselves from others, try not to touch their faces, and be mindful about who they are gathering with (in limited social circles) for the most part.
Only the most vulnerable and high risk should continue sheltering in place while the rest of us bring the economic engine back online.
I'm not convinced of that yet. Americans can get stuff done.
From your lips to God's ears.k2aggie07 said:
I'm not convinced of that yet. Americans can get stuff done.
WestAustinAg said:Look at this graph of texas deaths/day.Toptierag2018 said:treston58 said:
Death merchants gonna death merchant.
Pelayo, I always appreciate your posts but there ARE people who are cheering on higher and higher numbers so they can justify their position on all of this.
Truth is, it's nowhere near as bad as they projected (thank God), but they always come back and say "two more weeks. The **** is really going to hit the fan soon. Just you see."
We cannot continue to destroy our economy at this rate. There is a point where the cure really is worse than the disease itself
There are plenty of people who are cheering for this economy to tank because they have serious issues with Trump and they have proven they will not let anything stand in the way of that hatred nor their goal of getting rid of him. Anyone who denies that is truly in denial.
And I believe we can walk and chew gum at the same time. The examples have been provided time and time again but the media and death merchants apparently love this free trial version of Socialism and what it is doing to the country.
It's time to get back to work, and now.
The numbers are going down....but the projection for the very next day is estimating that it will explode tomorrow...always the next day as they try to force fit the ridiculous numbers into an ever declining problem.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas
I'm actually half way in your camp that we need to transition back to work very soon with some conditions and quarantine the vulnerable for some time longer. And yes there are some on the left who are happy this will hurt Trump's re-election chances, but I'm just not perceiving anyone as cheerleading covid deaths. Just differing opinions and perspectives on a discussion forum.Quote:
Pelayo, I always appreciate your posts but there ARE people who are cheering on higher and higher numbers so they can justify their position on all of this.
Truth is, it's nowhere near as bad as they projected (thank God), but they always come back and say "two more weeks. The **** is really going to hit the fan soon. Just you see."
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
That really is pitiful.
barnyard1996 said:I was being sarcastic Captain.Captain Pablo said:You stay homebarnyard1996 said:
Stay Home.
The rest of he world needs to get moving
I know. I caught that after I read your previous post. LOL
It seems like the model is working backwards from an outcome for Texas as opposed to inputs driving the outcome. Can someone explain the below?
From the University of Washington model on Sunday night (4/5):
- peak of April 20
- peak day = 72 deaths
- total deaths = 2,025
After 4 days in Texas of not moving up the curve, everything is just just pushed back in the model today (4/9):
- peak has moved back 4 days to April 24
- peak day = 66 deaths
- total deaths = 2,042
From the University of Washington model on Sunday night (4/5):
- peak of April 20
- peak day = 72 deaths
- total deaths = 2,025
After 4 days in Texas of not moving up the curve, everything is just just pushed back in the model today (4/9):
- peak has moved back 4 days to April 24
- peak day = 66 deaths
- total deaths = 2,042
Probably was too much. It reminded me of that poster but I think I'll remove it.barnyard1996 said:
That really is pitiful.
No No! I meant the graph was model was pitiful.Gap said:Probably was too much. It reminded me of that poster but I think I'll remove it.barnyard1996 said:
That really is pitiful.
I like the poster.
There's ALWAYS free beer tomorrow!!!! You just have to wait!WestAustinAg said:Look at this graph of texas deaths/day.Toptierag2018 said:treston58 said:
Death merchants gonna death merchant.
Pelayo, I always appreciate your posts but there ARE people who are cheering on higher and higher numbers so they can justify their position on all of this.
Truth is, it's nowhere near as bad as they projected (thank God), but they always come back and say "two more weeks. The **** is really going to hit the fan soon. Just you see."
We cannot continue to destroy our economy at this rate. There is a point where the cure really is worse than the disease itself.
There are plenty of people who are cheering for this economy to tank because they have serious issues with Trump and they have proven they will not let anything stand in the way of that hatred nor their goal of getting rid of him. Anyone who denies that is truly in denial.
And I believe we can walk and chew gum at the same time. The examples have been provided time and time again but the media and death merchants apparently love this free trial version of Socialism and what it is doing to the country.
It's time to get back to work, and now.
They can keep saying "two more weeks" until the daily totals of cases and deaths actually start going down. Until then they are right, wait two more weeks and things will look worse than today.
The numbers are going down....but the projection for the very next day is estimating that it will explode tomorrow...always the next day as they try to force fit the ridiculous numbers into an ever declining problem.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas
Chuck Gay said:
It seems like the model is working backwards from an outcome for Texas as opposed to inputs driving the outcome. Can someone explain the below?
From the University of Washington model on Sunday night (4/5):
- peak of April 20
- peak day = 72 deaths
- total deaths = 2,025
After 4 days in Texas of not moving up the curve, everything is just just pushed back in the model today (4/9):
- peak has moved back 4 days to April 24
- peak day = 66 deaths
- total deaths = 2,042
Just kick the can down the road
No.barnyard1996 said:My point is, can we go back to our lives now?wbt5845 said:barnyard1996 said:
202 deaths in Texas.
And about 200 in auto accidents. So what?
Because:
Too bad Harris County didn't order us to wear masks on 3/22. We could have prevented the 200 billion cases that resulted from the 500,000 cases we had on 3/23.
I am part of the problem and you're the victim...
I am part of the problem and you're the victim...
10 million worldwide cases, are we there yet?
I am part of the problem and you're the victim...
I am part of the problem and you're the victim...
Have we hit 10M worldwide cases yet? Or another couple of weeks?Infection_Ag11 said:
Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).
Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.
A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
Well...we are May 4, and Texas has...889 deaths...models were close...Chuck Gay said:
It seems like the model is working backwards from an outcome for Texas as opposed to inputs driving the outcome. Can someone explain the below?
From the University of Washington model on Sunday night (4/5):
- peak of April 20
- peak day = 72 deaths
- total deaths = 2,025
After 4 days in Texas of not moving up the curve, everything is just just pushed back in the model today (4/9):
- peak has moved back 4 days to April 24
- peak day = 66 deaths
- total deaths = 2,042
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
How many days does it take for the pond to be full of lily pads?
I am part of the problem and you're the victim...
I am part of the problem and you're the victim...
dBoy99 said:
How many days does it take for the pond to be full of lily pads?
14 days,or 2 weeks.
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