k2aggie07 said:

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You do realize that if we haven't caught up to the existing cases that it's actually moving faster than what is being reported, right?

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Lowering the mortality rate.

And even then, it went from 1.3 yesterday to 1.5 today

Ag with kids said:

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P.C. Principal said:

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https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

This data is updated periodically throughout the day. As of this post, we're at 62k cases in the United States. One week ago, we were at 13.7k. Two weeks ago, we were at 1.7k.

**** is getting real. This is why we're going ape**** trying to contain and slow down this spread.

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Imagine police don't patrol a road for speeders for a week. That week, there are no cases reported of speeders.

The, next week they put 10 cops on the road and pull over 50 people each day for 350 cases reported of speeders.

Why did so many people suddenly decide to speed that week vs the previous week when NOBODY was speeding?

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Conversely:

Imagine police don't patrol a road for a week. That week, there are no cases reported of speeders.

The next week, homeowners on that road complain and say people are speeding down this road and it's dangerous for people who live/play there.

Imagine half the country saying, "no one was caught speeding on that road. There's zero problem there and we shouldn't do anything."

waitwhat? said:

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mwp02ag said:

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I take this all very seriously. I don't believe its all doom and gloom, I do believe a lot of people are going to die. Not as many as will die from other **** no one ever gives a crap about like heart disease, more than some things people do care about like gender issue.

I do believe we are going to get back to work on or about April 9th, much longer than that and we will lose a ton of businesses. Go two months and there will be few small businesses who survive at all.

Then you'll start to see the true costs of severe economic problems. I am a super positive person, I work on my mindset constantly. I find myself unable to do some of the normal mindset things I normally do. I have never felt the depression that I have been since last Wednesday when my gym was shut down. It comes and goes, it affects my "day job" as a self employed real estate inspector. I still have work this week, probably will next week but my quarterly goals are going to take a back seat to belt tightening until we know what is happening. Its such a surreal world right now.

I find myself guilty about the meals we are eating, still hitting our macros. Its a TON of food for my wife and I to consume. We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year.

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Incredible.

2nd sentence: "I don't believe its all doom and gloom"

last sentence: "We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year."

Your should donate your mind to science after this is all over.

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Hey those are worst case scenarios. If your side gets to throw them out then why don't I?

I also clearly stated that I am depressed and can't seem to find my normal mindset, but go ahead and make fun of that.

P.C. Principal said:

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https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

This data is updated periodically throughout the day. As of this post, we're at 62k cases in the United States. One week ago, we were at 13.7k. Two weeks ago, we were at 1.7k.

**** is getting real. This is why we're going ape**** trying to contain and slow down this spread.

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k2aggie07 said:

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Quote:

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I find myself guilty about the meals we are eating, still hitting our macros. Its a TON of food for my wife and I to consume. We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year.

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What happens when 10% unemployment hits? 20%? 40% as some have predicted? I posted late last week that we are expecting unemployment to hit 2.5 million this week, I saw today that has exploded to 3.4 million. Where will we be after 4 weeks of this shut down?

Not starving to death, for one.

P.C. Principal said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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P.C. Principal said:

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Why the personal attack?

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Because I'm sick if you're incessant doom And gloom whining

Go whine somewhere else

You're the worst poster on TexAgs

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You sound really angry and upset right now. I suggest taking a break from the internet and taking 10-15 minutes to meditate and clear your mind. This is a stressful time for everyone, so I understand why you feel the way you do.

Also, my post wasn't whining. It was stating numbers and verifiable facts. The number of cases is increasing quickly. There are lots of posts on this board asking why the world is reacting with such panic, and I'm simply coming here to state "this is why."

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We can't ignore your panicky alarmist sentence. It was whiny and evocative.

Quote:

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**** is getting real. This is why we're going ape**** trying to contain and slow down this spread.

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Depends. The mythological mass early outbreak theory requires a bunch of undiagnosed flu-like illnesses to have been COVID19. If that's true for cases, it's true for deaths too. If we are making up hypothetical scenarios without any evidence, you could say our "unusually bad flu season" was really just undiagnosed COVID19.

(Note I don't think this is true).

Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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P.C. Principal said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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P.C. Principal said:

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Why the personal attack?

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Because I'm sick if you're incessant doom And gloom whining

Go whine somewhere else

You're the worst poster on TexAgs

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You sound really angry and upset right now. I suggest taking a break from the internet and taking 10-15 minutes to meditate and clear your mind. This is a stressful time for everyone, so I understand why you feel the way you do.

Also, my post wasn't whining. It was stating numbers and verifiable facts. The number of cases is increasing quickly. There are lots of posts on this board asking why the world is reacting with such panic, and I'm simply coming here to state "this is why."

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We can't ignore your panicky alarmist sentence. It was whiny and evocative.

Quote:

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**** is getting real. This is why we're going ape**** trying to contain and slow down this spread.

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Wow. Did he really post that? Glad I have him blocked.

waitwhat? said:

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P.C. Principal said:

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Troutslime said:

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P.C. Principal said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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P.C. Principal said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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P.C. Principal said:

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Why the personal attack?

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Because I'm sick if you're incessant doom And gloom whining

Go whine somewhere else

You're the worst poster on TexAgs

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You sound really angry and upset right now. I suggest taking a break from the internet and taking 10-15 minutes to meditate and clear your mind. This is a stressful time for everyone, so I understand why you feel the way you do.

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Upset? not in the least

Sick of your incessant doom And gloom ?

Of course

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I understand why you feel that way. This stuff sucks, and it's not fun to hear how ****ty things are. It's not fun pointing this stuff out, and I'm aware that the truth pisses lots of people off, but there are lots of people who post here that are still in denial over all this. We've increased by 50k new cases in the US in the past week alone. I'm not here to tell everyone they are going to die, but I am saying we must take this seriously and stop rolling our eyes like this is all some big nothingburger.

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What more can we do?

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Follow the authorities on this subject. Stay home, avoid contact with others. If you own a non-essential business, shut down for now and allow employees to WFH (if possible). I'm sure lots of posters here are already doing all that, but I'm simply sharing this stuff to help explain WHY such crazy measures are being put into place. I still see talk all over social media about how this is all an overreaction and not necessary.

Were I live (Dallas), cases are exploding. I'm happy to comply, and I've been working from home all week. I do my morning runs in non-crowded areas.

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247 total cases in a county of 2.6 million is "exploding"?

I have yet to see anything that convinces me that this is more than a nothingburger. If Trump wasn't president and the media had no reason to want to destroy the economy, this would have just gone by like Swine Flu.

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It's a hair on fire attorney melting down.

Yes.

Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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Yes.

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Wow. He needs to step away from the keyboard.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

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How many cases today?

450p CST 3/25/20

World:
466,626 cases
21,145 dead
113,802 recovered.

Late Wednesday prognostication was to be 1,000,000 cases.

Has the world finally transitioned from exponential to logistical?

Will check in Monday and look at the 10,000,000 cases.

This is damned good news.

aginlakeway said:

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Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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P.C. Principal said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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P.C. Principal said:

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Why the personal attack?

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Because I'm sick if you're incessant doom And gloom whining

Go whine somewhere else

You're the worst poster on TexAgs

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You sound really angry and upset right now. I suggest taking a break from the internet and taking 10-15 minutes to meditate and clear your mind. This is a stressful time for everyone, so I understand why you feel the way you do.

Also, my post wasn't whining. It was stating numbers and verifiable facts. The number of cases is increasing quickly. There are lots of posts on this board asking why the world is reacting with such panic, and I'm simply coming here to state "this is why."

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We can't ignore your panicky alarmist sentence. It was whiny and evocative.

Quote:

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**** is getting real. This is why we're going ape**** trying to contain and slow down this spread.

---

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Wow. Did he really post that? Glad I have him blocked.

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He's been wetting his pants since day one

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

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https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

As of 4:30 pm central time
460250 cases
20856 deaths
113220 recovered
note: I am assuming this is somewhat accurate the WHO is reporting 416,686 as of 3/25/20 15:34 GMT-5

If I am reading this right, you are citing known cases confirmed with testing. If not my questions below become somewhat meaningless.

Have you made any adjustments to your model to account for the difference between 1 million predicted and 460,250 actual? How would this effect your prediction we hit 10 million cases worldwide?

Also, if in the US testing is ramping up exponentially, if I heard that correctly in last night's Administration Coronavirus update and worldwide testing is accelerating how does that factor into the number of cases you project we see by the start of next week.

P.C.Principal, Proposition Joe and Old RV Ag need to get a room.

Dallas only gets 250 test per day. Lol what a joke.

Buf***47 said:

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Dallas only gets 250 test per day. Lol what a joke.

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Dallas should buy more tests.

mwp02ag said:

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I find myself guilty about the meals we are eating, still hitting our macros. Its a TON of food for my wife and I to consume. We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year.

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WTF?

Buf***47 said:

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Dallas only gets 250 test per day. Lol what a joke.

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The country is doing 15K or 20K tests a day. What's wrong with Dallas?

Quote:

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What's wrong with Dallas?

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Trick question?

mwp02ag said:

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I take this all very seriously. I don't believe its all doom and gloom, I do believe a lot of people are going to die. Not as many as will die from other **** no one ever gives a crap about like heart disease, more than some things people do care about like gender issue.

I do believe we are going to get back to work on or about April 9th, much longer than that and we will lose a ton of businesses. Go two months and there will be few small businesses who survive at all.

Then you'll start to see the true costs of severe economic problems. I am a super positive person, I work on my mindset constantly. I find myself unable to do some of the normal mindset things I normally do. I have never felt the depression that I have been since last Wednesday when my gym was shut down. It comes and goes, it affects my "day job" as a self employed real estate inspector. I still have work this week, probably will next week but my quarterly goals are going to take a back seat to belt tightening until we know what is happening. Its such a surreal world right now.

I find myself guilty about the meals we are eating, still hitting our macros. Its a TON of food for my wife and I to consume. We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year.

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Huh?

mwp02ag said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Quote:

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I find myself guilty about the meals we are eating, still hitting our macros. Its a TON of food for my wife and I to consume. We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year.

---

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What happens when 10% unemployment hits? 20%? 40% as some have predicted? I posted late last week that we are expecting unemployment to hit 2.5 million this week, I saw today that has exploded to 3.4 million. Where will we be after 4 weeks of this shut down?

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Wait...is that exponential math?

Stolen from Trump presser thread ...

Birx just busted a lot of bubbles with her numbers indicating some modelers are just plain fear mongering.

k2aggie07 said:

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Depends. The mythological mass early outbreak theory requires a bunch of undiagnosed flu-like illnesses to have been COVID19. If that's true for cases, it's true for deaths too. If we are making up hypothetical scenarios without any evidence, you could say our "unusually bad flu season" was really just undiagnosed COVID19.

(Note I don't think this is true).

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Or it depends on how contagious this virus is. What are the numbers again, 8% positive for most of the country and 28% (???) positive in the New York metropolitan area. It also depends on who the tests are targeting.

And it was said again in today's briefing that numbers of tests are increasing exponentially.

Maybe the models should weight deaths due to coronavirus more heavily..... or maybe they due.

Something that some people care a lot about that will certainly kill less people than CV. Same people dont blink at 1mm deaths due to heart disease.

Close to 1 million people die ever damn year from heart disease and were putting fried chicken on a waffle.

Its all backwards.

I think the simplest test is... as we test more, do we get a wildly divergent view of the spread of the disease? Same for genome testing or antibody testing or any other. The more information you get, the clearer it becomes. But conjecture without evidence is mostly just wishing.

Until increased testing shows a huge disparity or changes what we're seeing, we have to go with what is available.

Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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P.C.Principal, Proposition Joe and Old RV Ag need to get a room.

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as long as the room gets wiped down with a disinfectant wipe first.

k2aggie07 said:

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I think the simplest test is... as we test more, do we get a wildly divergent view of the spread of the disease? Same for genome testing or antibody testing or any other. The more information you get, the clearer it becomes. But conjecture without evidence is mostly just wishing.

Until increased testing shows a huge disparity or changes what we're seeing, we have to go with what is available.

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GAP posted a link to a Wall Street article about a study that has evidence the dire predictions maybe off by orders of magnitude.

They make some assumptions that should be questioned, like basing information on people returned from the Wuhan area. These people are a small representative sample and may have a life style slowing infection. But nonetheless these are scientists and should be considered.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3102429/replies/56247433

No, Gap posted an OP ED written but a bunch of public policy wonks saying it might be off by an order of magnitude.

There was no study behind the op ed.

If there was, instead of being in WSJ they'd be in Nature or Science and being the equivalent of the QB who scored the touchdown in the state championship and went home with the prom queen.

P.C. Principal said:

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Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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P.C.Principal, Proposition Joe and Old RV Ag need to get a room.

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as long as the room gets wiped down with a disinfectant wipe first.

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Who from the government will come do it for you?

Philip J Fry said:

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Tom Hagen said:

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Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.

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You can't view this graph? Are you blind or just unwilling to open your eyes?

Quote:

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crowman2010 said:

And 12k of the 14k are in NY...

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Texas is a whole 5 days away from where New York is right now. At the end of the week, we will be where NY is right now.

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Projected. And by WHOM?

k, ignore the trend line and look at the dots then. Those are real numbers from the CDC.

k2aggie07 said:

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k, ignore the trend line and look at the dots then. Those are real numbers from the CDC.

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.

What figures were used in the projections?