Where is the inflection point where we can say that we've turned the corner and this has slowed down? I mean, you can run exponents to infinity. But realistically, that not how this works in a population of people. At some point, the line ends. Where is that?

We are still under 500k worldwide.

Correct me if I'm wrong. There is no way, other than testing every person in the US, to find out who how many have it. Many of those maybe already Have had it and and should no longer be counted.

The only true way to know if we have it under control is the death rate. If the death rate slows or doesn't accelerate, the more under control it is?

jefe95 said:

---

Where is the inflection point where we can say that we've turned the corner and this has slowed down? I mean, you can run exponents to infinity. But realistically, that not how this works in a population of people. At some point, the line ends. Where is that?

---

To me that is not the question. All that matters is number of people hospitalized and the number of deaths. We can't take these measures just to keep people from getting sick for a few days.

Yep...guess Infection was just a bit off on his exponential math

You mean.. simple math can't predict outcomes based on incomplete input data?

Who woulda thought?

mazag08 said:

---

You mean.. simple math can't predict outcomes based on incomplete input data?

Who woulda thought?

---

19-Mar 168
20-Mar 207
21-Mar 255
22-Mar 315
23-Mar 389
24-Mar 480
25-Mar 592<---We are here. Actual count is 909 and counting
26-Mar 731
27-Mar 901
28-Mar 1,112
29-Mar 1,372
30-Mar 1,693
31-Mar 2,089


Yeah, the simple math is way off.

But we are 2 weeks since the NBA shut down. 3 weeks since many of us at least halted travel.

Those that go in the hospital will also leave the hospital. So the numbers will not always go up.

We just stay closed forever until no one is sick?

We have to hit an equilibrium where we say ok...we've managed the risk as best we can, we've slowed down the speed of the growth, we can cautiously resume life.

gougler08 said:

---

Yep...guess Infection was just a bit off on his exponential math

---

Worldometer #s which closes the day at around 7pm central (GMT midnight)

Yeah we didn't double from 24k to 48k in the United States in one day so I imagine that is throwing his #s way off as he extrapolated.

jefe95 said:

---

But we are 2 weeks since the NBA shut down. 3 weeks since many of us at least halted travel.

Those that go in the hospital will also leave the hospital. So the numbers will not always go up.

We just stay closed forever until no one is sick?

We have to hit an equilibrium where we say ok...we've managed the risk as best we can, we've slowed down the speed of the growth, we can cautiously resume life.

---

We are about a month from peak hospitalizations in New York. It's hard to say what's going to happen in New Jersey, New Orleans and now Michigan but we can hope New York is a special one off due to their population density and public transport.

It's worth noting that testing is going to be on an entirely different level in 2 or 3 weeks as well. Right now most people can't get tested at all and the ones who are see a 5-10 day turn around time on results.

4,568 new cases in the USA so far today.

jefe95 said:

---

But we are 2 weeks since the NBA shut down. 3 weeks since many of us at least halted travel.

Those that go in the hospital will also leave the hospital. So the numbers will not always go up.

We just stay closed forever until no one is sick?

We have to hit an equilibrium where we say ok...we've managed the risk as best we can, we've slowed down the speed of the growth, we can cautiously resume life.

---

.

Agree 100%

$30,000 Millionaire said:

---

4,568 new cases in the USA so far today.

---

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

9,909

Captain Pablo said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Captain Pablo said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Why the personal attack?

---

Because I'm sick if you're incessant doom And gloom whining

Go whine somewhere else

You're the worst poster on TexAgs

---

You sound really angry and upset right now. I suggest taking a break from the internet and taking 10-15 minutes to meditate and clear your mind. This is a stressful time for everyone, so I understand why you feel the way you do.

---

Upset? not in the least

Sick of your incessant doom And gloom ?

Of course

---

I understand why you feel that way. This stuff sucks, and it's not fun to hear how ****ty things are. It's not fun pointing this stuff out, and I'm aware that the truth pisses lots of people off, but there are lots of people who post here that are still in denial over all this. We've increased by 50k new cases in the US in the past week alone. I'm not here to tell everyone they are going to die, but I am saying we must take this seriously and stop rolling our eyes like this is all some big nothingburger.

PJYoung said:

---

gougler08 said:

---

Yep...guess Infection was just a bit off on his exponential math

---

Worldometer #s which closes the day at around 7pm central (GMT midnight)

Yeah we didn't double from 24k to 48k in the United States in one day so I imagine that is throwing his #s way off as he extrapolated.

---

If today's numbers hold to around 10-12k I don't see how we could have another explosion like from 3/21-3/22. Unless there is another epicenter somewhere that nobody knows about or NYC is holding back some numbers.

Since everyone has been shut down for at least a week now I have a hard time believing we'll see a numbers explosion again.

rgag12 said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

gougler08 said:

---

Yep...guess Infection was just a bit off on his exponential math

---

Worldometer #s which closes the day at around 7pm central (GMT midnight)

Yeah we didn't double from 24k to 48k in the United States in one day so I imagine that is throwing his #s way off as he extrapolated.

---

If today's numbers hold to around 10-12k I don't see how we could have another explosion like from 3/21-3/22. Unless there is another epicenter somewhere that nobody knows about or NYC is holding back some numbers.

Since everyone has been shut down for at least a week now I have a hard time believing we'll see a numbers explosion again.

---

I think with increased testing and New York seeding a lot of the country we certainly could.

Hope not.

EDIT: and yeah, today's numbers shouldn't break 12k only 7 or 8 states were left to report.

P.C. Principal said:

---

Captain Pablo said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Captain Pablo said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Why the personal attack?

---

Because I'm sick if you're incessant doom And gloom whining

Go whine somewhere else

You're the worst poster on TexAgs

---

You sound really angry and upset right now. I suggest taking a break from the internet and taking 10-15 minutes to meditate and clear your mind. This is a stressful time for everyone, so I understand why you feel the way you do.

---

Upset? not in the least

Sick of your incessant doom And gloom ?

Of course

---

I understand why you feel that way. This stuff sucks, and it's not fun to hear how ****ty things are. It's not fun pointing this stuff out, and I'm aware that the truth pisses lots of people off, but there are lots of people who post here that are still in denial over all this. We've increased by 50k new cases in the US in the past week alone. I'm not here to tell everyone they are going to die, but I am saying we must take this seriously and stop rolling our eyes like this is all some big nothingburger.

---

What more can we do?

Troutslime said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Captain Pablo said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Captain Pablo said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Why the personal attack?

---

Because I'm sick if you're incessant doom And gloom whining

Go whine somewhere else

You're the worst poster on TexAgs

---

You sound really angry and upset right now. I suggest taking a break from the internet and taking 10-15 minutes to meditate and clear your mind. This is a stressful time for everyone, so I understand why you feel the way you do.

---

Upset? not in the least

Sick of your incessant doom And gloom ?

Of course

---

I understand why you feel that way. This stuff sucks, and it's not fun to hear how ****ty things are. It's not fun pointing this stuff out, and I'm aware that the truth pisses lots of people off, but there are lots of people who post here that are still in denial over all this. We've increased by 50k new cases in the US in the past week alone. I'm not here to tell everyone they are going to die, but I am saying we must take this seriously and stop rolling our eyes like this is all some big nothingburger.

---

What more can we do?

---

Follow the authorities on this subject. Stay home, avoid contact with others. If you own a non-essential business, shut down for now and allow employees to WFH (if possible). I'm sure lots of posters here are already doing all that, but I'm simply sharing this stuff to help explain WHY such crazy measures are being put into place. I still see talk all over social media about how this is all an overreaction and not necessary.

Were I live (Dallas), cases are exploding. I'm happy to comply, and I've been working from home all week. I do my morning runs in non-crowded areas.

I really want this to be over with. Never thought I'd say this, but I'm actually missing having to commute every now and then.

P.C. Principal said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Captain Pablo said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Captain Pablo said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Why the personal attack?

---

Because I'm sick if you're incessant doom And gloom whining

Go whine somewhere else

You're the worst poster on TexAgs

---

You sound really angry and upset right now. I suggest taking a break from the internet and taking 10-15 minutes to meditate and clear your mind. This is a stressful time for everyone, so I understand why you feel the way you do.

---

Upset? not in the least

Sick of your incessant doom And gloom ?

Of course

---

I understand why you feel that way. This stuff sucks, and it's not fun to hear how ****ty things are. It's not fun pointing this stuff out, and I'm aware that the truth pisses lots of people off, but there are lots of people who post here that are still in denial over all this. We've increased by 50k new cases in the US in the past week alone. I'm not here to tell everyone they are going to die, but I am saying we must take this seriously and stop rolling our eyes like this is all some big nothingburger.

---

What more can we do?

---

Follow the authorities on this subject. Stay home, avoid contact with others. If you own a non-essential business, shut down for now and allow employees to WFH (if possible). I'm sure lots of posters here are already doing all that, but I'm simply sharing this stuff to help explain WHY such crazy measures are being put into place. I still see talk all over social media about how this is all an overreaction and not necessary.

Were I live (Dallas), cases are exploding. I'm happy to comply, and I've been working from home all week. I do my morning runs in non-crowded areas.

---

247 total cases in a county of 2.6 million is "exploding"?

I have yet to see anything that convinces me that this is more than a nothingburger. If Trump wasn't president and the media had no reason to want to destroy the economy, this would have just gone by like Swine Flu.

I take this all very seriously. I don't believe its all doom and gloom, I do believe a lot of people are going to die. Not as many as will die from other **** no one ever gives a crap about like heart disease, more than some things people do care about like gender issue.

I do believe we are going to get back to work on or about April 9th, much longer than that and we will lose a ton of businesses. Go two months and there will be few small businesses who survive at all.

Then you'll start to see the true costs of severe economic problems. I am a super positive person, I work on my mindset constantly. I find myself unable to do some of the normal mindset things I normally do. I have never felt the depression that I have been since last Wednesday when my gym was shut down. It comes and goes, it affects my "day job" as a self employed real estate inspector. I still have work this week, probably will next week but my quarterly goals are going to take a back seat to belt tightening until we know what is happening. Its such a surreal world right now.

I find myself guilty about the meals we are eating, still hitting our macros. Its a TON of food for my wife and I to consume. We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year.

waitwhat? said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Captain Pablo said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Captain Pablo said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

Why the personal attack?

---

Because I'm sick if you're incessant doom And gloom whining

Go whine somewhere else

You're the worst poster on TexAgs

---

You sound really angry and upset right now. I suggest taking a break from the internet and taking 10-15 minutes to meditate and clear your mind. This is a stressful time for everyone, so I understand why you feel the way you do.

---

Upset? not in the least

Sick of your incessant doom And gloom ?

Of course

---

I understand why you feel that way. This stuff sucks, and it's not fun to hear how ****ty things are. It's not fun pointing this stuff out, and I'm aware that the truth pisses lots of people off, but there are lots of people who post here that are still in denial over all this. We've increased by 50k new cases in the US in the past week alone. I'm not here to tell everyone they are going to die, but I am saying we must take this seriously and stop rolling our eyes like this is all some big nothingburger.

---

What more can we do?

---

Follow the authorities on this subject. Stay home, avoid contact with others. If you own a non-essential business, shut down for now and allow employees to WFH (if possible). I'm sure lots of posters here are already doing all that, but I'm simply sharing this stuff to help explain WHY such crazy measures are being put into place. I still see talk all over social media about how this is all an overreaction and not necessary.

Were I live (Dallas), cases are exploding. I'm happy to comply, and I've been working from home all week. I do my morning runs in non-crowded areas.

---

247 total cases in a county of 2.6 million is "exploding"?

I have yet to see anything that convinces me that this is more than a nothingburger. If Trump wasn't president and the media had no reason to want to destroy the economy, this would have just gone by like Swine Flu.

---

You may have a point normally, if this were a US-only problem. But this is a worldwide problem and other countries are reacting the same way we are.

PJYoung said:

---

gougler08 said:

---

Yep...guess Infection was just a bit off on his exponential math

---

Worldometer #s which closes the day at around 7pm central (GMT midnight)

Yeah we didn't double from 24k to 48k in the United States in one day so I imagine that is throwing his #s way off as he extrapolated.

---

Oh there's no doubt we're growing and probably will continue to do so for another couple weeks...I just get sick of the doom and gloom that we're going to be at 10MM cases worldwide in a week. As with most things, it's never as bad as people think or as good as people think, it's normally somewhere in between

Ag with kids said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

This data is updated periodically throughout the day. As of this post, we're at 62k cases in the United States. One week ago, we were at 13.7k. Two weeks ago, we were at 1.7k.

**** is getting real. This is why we're going ape**** trying to contain and slow down this spread.

---

Imagine police don't patrol a road for speeders for a week. That week, there are no cases reported of speeders.

The, next week they put 10 cops on the road and pull over 50 people each day for 350 cases reported of speeders.

Why did so many people suddenly decide to speed that week vs the previous week when NOBODY was speeding?

---

ding ding ding

Ag with kids said:

---

P.C. Principal said:

---

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

This data is updated periodically throughout the day. As of this post, we're at 62k cases in the United States. One week ago, we were at 13.7k. Two weeks ago, we were at 1.7k.

**** is getting real. This is why we're going ape**** trying to contain and slow down this spread.

---

Imagine police don't patrol a road for speeders for a week. That week, there are no cases reported of speeders.

The, next week they put 10 cops on the road and pull over 50 people each day for 350 cases reported of speeders.

Why did so many people suddenly decide to speed that week vs the previous week when NOBODY was speeding?

---

You mean testing MAY impact the numbers? Shocking ...

What if you're sick and don't want to bother with testing?

Are you still sick?

For a disease of this infectiousness, without the intervention, north of 40% of the population before it rolls over.

Quote:

---

I find myself guilty about the meals we are eating, still hitting our macros. Its a TON of food for my wife and I to consume. We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year.

---

Does testing make people die at an exponential rate too?

k2aggie07 said:

---

Quote:

---

I find myself guilty about the meals we are eating, still hitting our macros. Its a TON of food for my wife and I to consume. We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year.

---

---

I mean if mass starvation isn't doom and gloom then they may be the most optimistic person I've ever heard of.

mwp02ag said:

---

I take this all very seriously. I don't believe its all doom and gloom, I do believe a lot of people are going to die. Not as many as will die from other **** no one ever gives a crap about like heart disease, more than some things people do care about like gender issue.

I do believe we are going to get back to work on or about April 9th, much longer than that and we will lose a ton of businesses. Go two months and there will be few small businesses who survive at all.

Then you'll start to see the true costs of severe economic problems. I am a super positive person, I work on my mindset constantly. I find myself unable to do some of the normal mindset things I normally do. I have never felt the depression that I have been since last Wednesday when my gym was shut down. It comes and goes, it affects my "day job" as a self employed real estate inspector. I still have work this week, probably will next week but my quarterly goals are going to take a back seat to belt tightening until we know what is happening. Its such a surreal world right now.

I find myself guilty about the meals we are eating, still hitting our macros. Its a TON of food for my wife and I to consume. We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year.

---

Incredible.

2nd sentence: "I don't believe its all doom and gloom"

last sentence: "We all may be facing mass starvation in the next year."

Your should donate your mind to science after this is all over.