FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Quote:

---

We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

---

Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

---

Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

---

What would you expect "experts" to say? They have no skin in the game.

Are they responsible for the results of their views? No. Hell, even the politicians aren't when you boil it down.

---

You have zero credibility. Your argument is "WAHHHHHHHHHH, life has changed! NOT FAIR!"

---

Thanks for bringing your tactful insight to the discussion.

---

I have tried tact... Look at my any number of responses. It's not good enough for you. You just stick your head further into the sand.

---

You sure are convinced it's not your head in the sand.

Where have you and I traded discussion?

---

This whole thread. The difference is, you are going based off of your gut and against the math and professionals.

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Ok, sure. If this was one professional in an isolated part of the internet. There are literally hundreds if not thousands of professionals telling you otherwise.

You are choosing ignorance.

---

You're choosing to ride the high horse and not even conceive you just might be wrong. I bet you're that way with most things in life. Am I right?

---

Don't play the victim card when you have a choice to inform yourself. I thought this was stupid too until I read about the risks not only for people who are infected but the strain on our systems - healthcare and financial. I chose to take a different opinion than when this started because I decided that education and facts were more important than what I was feeling.

I am not choosing to ride the high horse, as you say, but I am choosing to follow the numbers and what thousands of Doctors have said. People who do this for a living. They prepare for terrible scenarios.

I will give you an example because I think you like to learn and teach in stories.

If you were a new recruit into the military and you were getting shot at for the first time and several more veteran guys and officers told you to do something that might save your life, would you yield to them because you realize that your gut and experience has zero clue how to actually react or would stay stubborn because one time someone of authority did you wrong?

---

Ask yourself this question. If 1000's of Doctors do this for a living and prepare for terrible scenarios, why are we in this terrible scenario?

As to your military scenario if I was a new recruit and the veteran guys got me into a shoot out first thing I'd wonder how the veterans guys ever got to be veteran guys.

Rattler12 said:

---

k2aggie07 said:

---

Quote:

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Right, becoming an MD / PhD is *totally comparable* to an auto mechanic.

This forum gets better every day.

---

So you're saying an MD/PHD can never be wrong ? Then why is there even such a thing as malpractice insurance? If they can never be wrong why would they need it? Why does a MD/PHD take their vehicle to a lowly auto mechanic when it needs fixing?

---

I'm not even making absolute statements, I'm using VERY OPTIMISTIC projections to make these points. That's what some of you don't get, I'm giving you some glass half full stuff here.

If when the dust settles this thing only has a 0.5% mortality that will be GREAT. FANTASTIC. I would be just as justified using a mortality of up to 1%, but again I'm trying to illustrate that even an optimistic projection looks bad if we don't take significant measures to limit the spread.

I just heard 9 out of 10 are testing NEGATIVE!

Great news!

And at the end of the day it was still just an O ring.

Philip J Fry said:

---

I'm living in reality. You're the one relating a 50 cent pump O-Ring to a pandemic that's effecting 144 countries.

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

We really have hit the point that we don't trust people who study this for a living over our gut because, "they've been wrong before".

---

TexAgs is smarter than experts in everything.

Quote:

---

Ask yourself this question. If 1000's of Doctors do this for a living and prepare for terrible scenarios, why are we in this terrible scenario?

---

This has to be a bit, right?

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

---

Have you factored in the increased amount of testing in your calculations? Yes, we get it, the numbers of people "testing positive" are increasing, but how the actual number of "infected people" is calculated depends on how many people are tested, the increase in testing and on whether the patient is symptomatic or asymptomatic.

In the press briefing just now, the recommendation was to target healthcare and first responders, rightfully so, but this type of targeted testing will further mask what is taking place in the general population.

So I believe at this time we do not know how long we have been in exponential infections nor do we know what effect the current shut down of whole segments of our society has had on the rates of infections.

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Quote:

---

We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

---

Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

---

Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

---

What would you expect "experts" to say? They have no skin in the game.

Are they responsible for the results of their views? No. Hell, even the politicians aren't when you boil it down.

---

You have zero credibility. Your argument is "WAHHHHHHHHHH, life has changed! NOT FAIR!"

---

Thanks for bringing your tactful insight to the discussion.

---

I have tried tact... Look at my any number of responses. It's not good enough for you. You just stick your head further into the sand.

---

You sure are convinced it's not your head in the sand.

Where have you and I traded discussion?

---

This whole thread. The difference is, you are going based off of your gut and against the math and professionals.

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Ok, sure. If this was one professional in an isolated part of the internet. There are literally hundreds if not thousands of professionals telling you otherwise.

You are choosing ignorance.

---

You're choosing to ride the high horse and not even conceive you just might be wrong. I bet you're that way with most things in life. Am I right?

---

Don't play the victim card when you have a choice to inform yourself. I thought this was stupid too until I read about the risks not only for people who are infected but the strain on our systems - healthcare and financial. I chose to take a different opinion than when this started because I decided that education and facts were more important than what I was feeling.

I am not choosing to ride the high horse, as you say, but I am choosing to follow the numbers and what thousands of Doctors have said. People who do this for a living. They prepare for terrible scenarios.

I will give you an example because I think you like to learn and teach in stories.

If you were a new recruit into the military and you were getting shot at for the first time and several more veteran guys and officers told you to do something that might save your life, would you yield to them because you realize that your gut and experience has zero clue how to actually react or would stay stubborn because one time someone of authority did you wrong?

---

Ask yourself this question. If 1000's of Doctors do this for a living and prepare for terrible scenarios, why are we in this terrible scenario?

As to your military scenario if I was a new recruit and the veteran guys got me into a shoot out first thing I'd wonder how the veterans guys ever got to be veteran guys.

---

Flagged for trolling

Got it. Hope total deaths continue to be less than the guesstimate oops model.

Rattler12 said:

---

oldarmy1 said:

---

With every 10k cases reported the corresponding mortality rate is dropping. Where are the deaths?

---

You're not a numbers guy so you can't possibly know.

---

Maybe place a $ in front of it, so I can understand?

is your baseline assumption that he's wholly incompetent or only mostly?

drevans956 said:

---

I just heard 9 out of 10 are testing NEGATIVE!

Great news!

---

This is good news.

k2aggie07 said:

---

is your baseline assumption that he's wholly incompetent or only mostly?

---

My model is roughly 62.6% incompetent. Can I get a peer review here?

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Threadbare said:

---

policywonk98 said:

---

New cases or cases that have been identified by testing?

There is a big difference.

---

Cleary this number is profoundly impacted by the increased testing availability.

A simply stunning omission from the OP...

---

It's not like all of these people had this for months and we're simply seeing the result of them just now being tested. You're seeing higher numbers because more people are showing symptoms and seeking tests.

Deaths are multiplying exponentially too. How does increased testing as an explanation for increased cases explain that? It doesn't.

The spread is exponential. End of story

---

I didn't say the spread is not exponential.

The spread being exponential does not preclude the numbers being clouded from an increase in available testing, and, people need to know that when considering numbers.

Also, note that the OP cited 14k new cases today (that was the number I was using as well). It looks like that was inflated, and I don't see that number anymore. If it would have been that high, that would have represented a 60% higher increase in the number of cases than what is actually being reported now, suggestive that something besides just an in increase in cases is going on (testing). Using those numbers, the fatality rate would have also shown a marked drop. (See the "yesterday" vs. "today" comparison for the US at the link below - it now shows just under 8400 cases since yesterday.)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

At any rate, you don't know how many people are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, and how many of these are going to be able to get tested compared to before.

To overlook that is just irresponsible.

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Quote:

---

We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

---

Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

---

Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

---

What would you expect "experts" to say? They have no skin in the game.

Are they responsible for the results of their views? No. Hell, even the politicians aren't when you boil it down.

---

You have zero credibility. Your argument is "WAHHHHHHHHHH, life has changed! NOT FAIR!"

---

Thanks for bringing your tactful insight to the discussion.

---

I have tried tact... Look at my any number of responses. It's not good enough for you. You just stick your head further into the sand.

---

You sure are convinced it's not your head in the sand.

Where have you and I traded discussion?

---

This whole thread. The difference is, you are going based off of your gut and against the math and professionals.

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Ok, sure. If this was one professional in an isolated part of the internet. There are literally hundreds if not thousands of professionals telling you otherwise.

You are choosing ignorance.

---

You're choosing to ride the high horse and not even conceive you just might be wrong. I bet you're that way with most things in life. Am I right?

---

Don't play the victim card when you have a choice to inform yourself. I thought this was stupid too until I read about the risks not only for people who are infected but the strain on our systems - healthcare and financial. I chose to take a different opinion than when this started because I decided that education and facts were more important than what I was feeling.

I am not choosing to ride the high horse, as you say, but I am choosing to follow the numbers and what thousands of Doctors have said. People who do this for a living. They prepare for terrible scenarios.

I will give you an example because I think you like to learn and teach in stories.

If you were a new recruit into the military and you were getting shot at for the first time and several more veteran guys and officers told you to do something that might save your life, would you yield to them because you realize that your gut and experience has zero clue how to actually react or would stay stubborn because one time someone of authority did you wrong?

---

Ask yourself this question. If 1000's of Doctors do this for a living and prepare for terrible scenarios, why are we in this terrible scenario?

As to your military scenario if I was a new recruit and the veteran guys got me into a shoot out first thing I'd wonder how the veterans guys ever got to be veteran guys.

---

Flagged for trolling

---

So if someone challenges your positions they are trolling?

richardag said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

---

Have you factored in the increased amount of testing in your calculations? Yes, we get it, the numbers of people "testing positive" are increasing, but how the actual number of "infected people" is calculated depends on how many people are tested, the increase in testing and on whether the patient is symptomatic or asymptomatic.

In the press briefing just now, the recommendation was to target healthcare and first responders, rightfully so, but this type of targeted testing will further mask what is taking place in the general population.

So I believe at this time we do not know how long we have been in exponential infections nor do we know what effect the current shut down of whole segments of our society has had on the rates of infections.

---

In my non expert opinion, you want to track the rate of hospitalization and death. That's all we really care about ultimately and it removes the uncertainty of CFR.

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Quote:

---

We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

---

Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

---

Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

---

What would you expect "experts" to say? They have no skin in the game.

Are they responsible for the results of their views? No. Hell, even the politicians aren't when you boil it down.

---

You have zero credibility. Your argument is "WAHHHHHHHHHH, life has changed! NOT FAIR!"

---

Thanks for bringing your tactful insight to the discussion.

---

I have tried tact... Look at my any number of responses. It's not good enough for you. You just stick your head further into the sand.

---

You sure are convinced it's not your head in the sand.

Where have you and I traded discussion?

---

This whole thread. The difference is, you are going based off of your gut and against the math and professionals.

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Ok, sure. If this was one professional in an isolated part of the internet. There are literally hundreds if not thousands of professionals telling you otherwise.

You are choosing ignorance.

---

You're choosing to ride the high horse and not even conceive you just might be wrong. I bet you're that way with most things in life. Am I right?

---

Don't play the victim card when you have a choice to inform yourself. I thought this was stupid too until I read about the risks not only for people who are infected but the strain on our systems - healthcare and financial. I chose to take a different opinion than when this started because I decided that education and facts were more important than what I was feeling.

I am not choosing to ride the high horse, as you say, but I am choosing to follow the numbers and what thousands of Doctors have said. People who do this for a living. They prepare for terrible scenarios.

I will give you an example because I think you like to learn and teach in stories.

If you were a new recruit into the military and you were getting shot at for the first time and several more veteran guys and officers told you to do something that might save your life, would you yield to them because you realize that your gut and experience has zero clue how to actually react or would stay stubborn because one time someone of authority did you wrong?

---

Ask yourself this question. If 1000's of Doctors do this for a living and prepare for terrible scenarios, why are we in this terrible scenario?

As to your military scenario if I was a new recruit and the veteran guys got me into a shoot out first thing I'd wonder how the veterans guys ever got to be veteran guys.

---

Flagged for trolling

---

So if someone challenges your positions they are trolling?

---

When they've been consistently as wrong as you on this subject, yes.

When you make the case that 144 countries are overreacting because a mechanic tried to sell you a pump instead of an oring, yes.

Social Distanced said:

---

Did you change position? I thought you were one of the doom and gloomers...

---

I'm pretty doomed, but not 100 million stateside infected by May doomer

I don't see how that's possible given paranoia and our overall density

My doom comes from us flattening the curve effectively until May but then what

I don't see the infrastructure in place needed to manage future outbreaks

Quote:

---

At any rate, you don't know how many people are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, and how many of these are going to be able to get tested compared to before.

---

Epidemiologists everywhere

k2aggie07 said:

---

Quote:

---

It's only by allowing limited and at least slightly tainted data into the equations that your statement can be made with certainty. If you look at trending, it's very possible that they will be statistically similar when it's over.

---

Show your work.

---

Learn deductive reasoning.

Troutslime said:

---

k2aggie07 said:

---

Quote:

---

It's only by allowing limited and at least slightly tainted data into the equations that your statement can be made with certainty. If you look at trending, it's very possible that they will be statistically similar when it's over.

---

Show your work.

---

Learn deductive reasoning.

---

Wait, you have to use deductive reasoning to get to k2 using limited and slightly tainted data to make a point? That doesn't make sense

Deductive reasoning isn't impossible to show your work.

What general principles are you deriving your conclusions from? I really do want to know.

408 post, 12 pages, and 0 minds changed in 5 hrs...

You never know man. More people read than post, and by God, I have faith in the average TexAgs lurker to sift through this.

Philip J Fry said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

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Troutslime said:

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FriendlyAg said:

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Troutslime said:

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FriendlyAg said:

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Troutslime said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Troutslime said:

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We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

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Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

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Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

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What would you expect "experts" to say? They have no skin in the game.

Are they responsible for the results of their views? No. Hell, even the politicians aren't when you boil it down.

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You have zero credibility. Your argument is "WAHHHHHHHHHH, life has changed! NOT FAIR!"

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Thanks for bringing your tactful insight to the discussion.

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I have tried tact... Look at my any number of responses. It's not good enough for you. You just stick your head further into the sand.

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You sure are convinced it's not your head in the sand.

Where have you and I traded discussion?

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This whole thread. The difference is, you are going based off of your gut and against the math and professionals.

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I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

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Ok, sure. If this was one professional in an isolated part of the internet. There are literally hundreds if not thousands of professionals telling you otherwise.

You are choosing ignorance.

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You're choosing to ride the high horse and not even conceive you just might be wrong. I bet you're that way with most things in life. Am I right?

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Don't play the victim card when you have a choice to inform yourself. I thought this was stupid too until I read about the risks not only for people who are infected but the strain on our systems - healthcare and financial. I chose to take a different opinion than when this started because I decided that education and facts were more important than what I was feeling.

I am not choosing to ride the high horse, as you say, but I am choosing to follow the numbers and what thousands of Doctors have said. People who do this for a living. They prepare for terrible scenarios.

I will give you an example because I think you like to learn and teach in stories.

If you were a new recruit into the military and you were getting shot at for the first time and several more veteran guys and officers told you to do something that might save your life, would you yield to them because you realize that your gut and experience has zero clue how to actually react or would stay stubborn because one time someone of authority did you wrong?

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Ask yourself this question. If 1000's of Doctors do this for a living and prepare for terrible scenarios, why are we in this terrible scenario?

As to your military scenario if I was a new recruit and the veteran guys got me into a shoot out first thing I'd wonder how the veterans guys ever got to be veteran guys.

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Flagged for trolling

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So if someone challenges your positions they are trolling?

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When they've been consistently as wrong as you on this subject, yes.

When you make the case that 144 countries are overreacting because a mechanic tried to sell you a pump instead of an oring, yes.

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Consistently wrong is all the death predictions.

is it even possible that this thing is as infectious as describe without a mountain of mild/low symptom cases?

people will freak out on you if you're coughing, like even once

or do we assume that every case regardless of eventual severity is spreading like crazy before symptoms show up, so it's not really an asymptomatic iceberg, it's a hyper infectious incubation period?

which would mean the only thing we can plausibly do long term in mitigation is random testing, aggressive contact tracing and isolation, temperature checks everywhere, and everyone wearing masks.

Troutslime said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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It's only by allowing limited and at least slightly tainted data into the equations that your statement can be made with certainty. If you look at trending, it's very possible that they will be statistically similar when it's over.

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Show your work.

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Learn deductive reasoning.

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I've seen zero deductive reasoning by the "my feels" group.

What variable would you like me to change before it aligns with your feels?

What if TA is responsible for the virus to increase their traffic? Think about it, once the traffic increases they can charge more for advertising. Total scam job.

I know. Mine are constantly lower than the actual of late.

what's a plausible number of infected stateside by May 1?

Nope, more and more looking like the same cohorts who have a mild illness are also spreading it undetected. From the studies published the iceberg looks like mild cases.

And yes, I think they're trying to buy time to get ventilators, PPE, and surge capacity in place. After that, only way forward may well be straight through it.

I don't think we want to do the privacy / civil liberties infringement S Korea and China are doing to control their outbreaks.

cone said:

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what's a plausible number of infected stateside by May 1?

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We'll have a better feel once the lockdown numbers start rolling in, but I would not be surprised if over 100million have had it by then.

this diagnosis of how it's spread seems to whiplash every other day

WHO says no asymptomatic

Italy says tons of asymptomatic, same for the cruise ship

then there's a bunch of false positives with the WHO test

how is the Italy case load so old without a ton of unrepresented younger cases?

but the American case load seems much younger as of right now

none of this makes sense