COVID exponential growth in full swing

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will25u
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2:17p, 3/22/20
The cases are skyrocketing, BUT the death rate is plummeting.

38,757 cases
396 deaths
1.02% death rate.

March 20th - 1.3%
March 21st - 1.19%
March 22nd - 1.02%
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Philip J Fry
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2:18p, 3/22/20
AG
I've been through this before. I'm not laying bets on human lives and it disgusts me that you think that's acceptable.

Feel free to donate to whatever charity you want. My wife has MS. Horrible disease with the only treatment options that are lifelong to extent the onset. Kind of like the social distancing.
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the last of the bohemians
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2:20p, 3/22/20
as Winston Churchill said, the US will always follow the correct path after trying every other one.
We're not reaching several hundred thousand deaths, not with this much attention on the problem. I understand it's easy to doubt something that hasn't appeared yet. But the country will get it's hands around this thing, probably through some combo of medications. I don't know, but I wouldn't bet against our creativity.
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Wyoming Aggie
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In reply to Infection_Ag11 • 2:20p, 3/22/20
AG
Infection_Ag11 said:
policywonk98 said:
New cases or cases that have been identified by testing?

There is a big difference.


The number of actual US cases is almost certainly over 100k already.


Which is great news since that makes the mortality rate well below 1%.

It'll be interesting to see the percentage of Americans whose lives are ruined because of this disgusting overreaction though.
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The_Fox
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In reply to Nitro Power • 2:20p, 3/22/20
Social Distanced said:
In the United States? 1,000 dollars to the winners choice of charity? Make it a nice round number, say 250,000. I'll take the under and you can make the check payable to the National MS Society.
If the US death toll is under 250k, this will go down as the biggest economic boondoggle in American history.
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Nitro Power
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In reply to The_Fox • 2:21p, 3/22/20
AG
Prepare yourself then.
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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Wife of Chas Satterfield
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In reply to Tom Hagen • 2:22p, 3/22/20
Tom Hagen said:
Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.
Even if they do can anybody, looking at you actuaries, tell us what the total deaths will be in the US? Will it be only normal flu season numbers or 2x normal flu season or 6x normal flu season?
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Wife of Chas Satterfield
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In reply to will25u • 2:23p, 3/22/20
will25u said:
The cases are skyrocketing, BUT the death rate is plummeting.

38,757 cases
396 deaths
1.02% death rate.

March 20th - 1.3%
March 21st - 1.19%
March 22nd - 1.02%
Testing is not the issue. Testing should be used for quarantine purposes.

What is the cost for a test?
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Nitro Power
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In reply to Wife of Chas Satterfield • 2:24p, 3/22/20
AG
Freeeeee
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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Zobel
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In reply to will25u • 2:24p, 3/22/20
AG
If we were getting all critical cases before, and now we're adding mild ones, then it will drop. But if we were getting mostly the same mix of cases as before, only more as testing increases, it won't drop much. Especially if testing is following similar screening. And as testing expands, if you see more early cases, you are also going to shift your severity window in time (same cases, just seeing sooner).

All of that is mixed up. Super hard to parse the info without a LOT more understanding of what numbers mean - what screening is being used and where.
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kyledr04
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2:25p, 3/22/20
AG
I dont think the rest of the US (except some other major cities) will be as bad as NY especially as fast. The NYC lifestyle is perfect for infections. Too many people, public transportation, generally filthy streets, and everyone pours in and out of Manhattan daily.
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pfo
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2:25p, 3/22/20
AG
After reading Texags and seeing all the spring breakers on the beach, I expect the number infected will explode. Even posters I greatly respect and a few friends I know are smart, aren't taking this seriously and aren't following the common sense rules that infectious disease doctors are recommending.
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Nitro Power
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In reply to Zobel • 2:25p, 3/22/20
AG
I expected that you would be here shortly to tell us all how dumb we are.
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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The_Fox
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In reply to Wife of Chas Satterfield • 2:26p, 3/22/20
Wife of Chas Satterfield said:
will25u said:
The cases are skyrocketing, BUT the death rate is plummeting.

38,757 cases
396 deaths
1.02% death rate.

March 20th - 1.3%
March 21st - 1.19%
March 22nd - 1.02%
Testing is not the issue. Testing should be used for quarantine purposes.

What is the cost for a test?
What is the daily economic cost of this lockdown? Testing costs would not even be a blip on the radar.
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Wife of Chas Satterfield
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In reply to Infection_Ag11 • 2:27p, 3/22/20
Infection_Ag11 said:
Tom Hagen said:
Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases.


That's just about the most incorrect statement ever posted.

The number of cases directly impacts mortality, both from this disease and as a whole, due to healthcare burden.

Everyone who has ANY life threatening health problem right now is at higher risk of death.
How does testing them or anybody else prevent death of those with comorbitity?
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AggielandPoultry
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2:27p, 3/22/20
AG
Very very few people here meet the criteria to be tested. So I think the death % to infected will be much lower. But I am not qualified to even attempt the math.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to will25u • 2:27p, 3/22/20
AG
will25u said:
The cases are skyrocketing, BUT the death rate is plummeting.

38,757 cases
396 deaths
1.02% death rate.

March 20th - 1.3%
March 21st - 1.19%
March 22nd - 1.02%


Useless stats. How many serious condition patients survived because they had a hospital bed an ventilator?
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Nitro Power
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 2:28p, 3/22/20
AG
Is it useless because it doesn't fit the narrative?
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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Wife of Chas Satterfield
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In reply to The_Fox • 2:28p, 3/22/20
The_Fox said:
Wife of Chas Satterfield said:
will25u said:
The cases are skyrocketing, BUT the death rate is plummeting.

38,757 cases
396 deaths
1.02% death rate.

March 20th - 1.3%
March 21st - 1.19%
March 22nd - 1.02%
Testing is not the issue. Testing should be used for quarantine purposes.

What is the cost for a test?
What is the daily economic cost of this lockdown? Testing costs would not even be a blip on the radar.
Unless as some people suggest that everybody should be tested. That plan would be idiotic and costly.

$200 per test for each American would add up. A waste of perfectly good money.

Expected 2.5 million with new unemployment claims this coming Friday is scary. Where will we be in the following weeks?
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Zobel
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In reply to Nitro Power • 2:29p, 3/22/20
AG
Said nothing of the kind, friend. I have not a single doubt in my mind that the vast majority of posters on here are smart, good people.

Best of luck to you and yours.
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Nitro Power
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In reply to Wife of Chas Satterfield • 2:29p, 3/22/20
AG
Yes but they have already done significantly more damage than that to the economy.
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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$3 Sack of Groceries
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In reply to Infection_Ag11 • 2:29p, 3/22/20
AG
Infection_Ag11 said:
Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.


I'm so tired of the few of you on this site that appear to be just reveling in this crap.
Can't post about the issue without some sort of self congratulatory pat on the back. So disgusting.
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TwelveA
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In reply to Infection_Ag11 • 2:29p, 3/22/20
Great Britain and Northern Ireland are going to skyrocket with CV cases during the next 20 days.

Until just a couple of days ago, their elected leaders had allowed the pubs to remain open, huge gatherings to continue, and mass transit was still crowded.
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Pasquale Liucci
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In reply to Infection_Ag11 • 2:30p, 3/22/20
AG
500k cases by tomorrow and a million by Wednesday? What are you smoking buddy?
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Zobel
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In reply to Pasquale Liucci • 2:30p, 3/22/20
AG
OP is infectious disease physician.
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Wife of Chas Satterfield
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In reply to Stat Monitor Repairman • 2:31p, 3/22/20
Stat Monitor Repairman said:
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The_Fox
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In reply to Wife of Chas Satterfield • 2:31p, 3/22/20
Wife of Chas Satterfield said:
The_Fox said:
Wife of Chas Satterfield said:
will25u said:
The cases are skyrocketing, BUT the death rate is plummeting.

38,757 cases
396 deaths
1.02% death rate.

March 20th - 1.3%
March 21st - 1.19%
March 22nd - 1.02%
Testing is not the issue. Testing should be used for quarantine purposes.

What is the cost for a test?
What is the daily economic cost of this lockdown? Testing costs would not even be a blip on the radar.
Unless as some people suggest that everybody should be tested. That plan would be idiotic and costly.

$200 per test for each American would add up. A waste of perfectly good money.
Not as much as $1200 per adult and $500 per child every two weeks for the duration of this ******edness.

Test! Let us see what the real numbers say about the mortality rate. Anything under 0.5 and this lockdown is a freaking joke.
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Wife of Chas Satterfield
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In reply to Zobel • 2:32p, 3/22/20
k2aggie07 said:
OP is infectious disease physician.
And he's causing me to crap my pants.
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Pasquale Liucci
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In reply to Zobel • 2:32p, 3/22/20
AG
Yes I know that, that's why I'm asking what he's smoking because there's no way he thinks there will be a global 160k case count increase in 12 hours. Or that cases will triple by Wednesday.
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Nitro Power
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In reply to Zobel • 2:33p, 3/22/20
AG
That's fine and good, but without the proper boundary conditions, it is not possible to reach a definitive solution. So no matter what he does, it is irresponsible to throw those obscene numbers out there.

Saying 100,000's are going to to die in the US is one that I am referencing specifically.
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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Bunk Moreland
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In reply to $3 Sack of Groceries • 2:33p, 3/22/20
Yelnick McWawa said:
Infection_Ag11 said:
Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.


I'm so tired of the few of you on this site that appear to be just reveling in this crap.
Can't post about the issue without some sort of self congratulatory pat on the back. So disgusting.


Nobody is reviling in this. It's the opposite. We're shocked, saddened and scared that so many can't even come close to grasping what's going on.
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Rattler12
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 2:33p, 3/22/20
Philip J Fry said:
Jesus ****ing Christ. Wake up. We will be LUCKY if it's only a few hundred thousand dead. LUCKY.
Spazz out much ?
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Pasquale Liucci • 2:34p, 3/22/20
AG
Lester Freamon said:
500k cases by tomorrow and a million by Wednesday? What are you smoking buddy?


We will be at a million infected in America in the first week of April.
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Zobel
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In reply to Nitro Power • 2:35p, 3/22/20
AG
I suppose we're going to find out if guys like him who do this for a living are better at predictions than the general population here shortly. It's not like a long time frame.

My dad told me this nice example, I keep repeating it to myself.

If you have a lily pond with one lily in it, and they reproduce double every day, and it takes 50 days to cover the pond, when is half covered? On day 49.

I know it's true, but it still makes me head hurt.
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Wife of Chas Satterfield
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In reply to Nitro Power • 2:35p, 3/22/20
Social Distanced said:
Saying hundreds of thousands are going to die in the US is sensationalism.
It's possible but the death estimate is trending down.

That's good news.
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