Hate to see Elise go.



But at least things are shaken up now.

I think Jim was the one behind all that not Cochran. If Keith was smart (and I don’t think he is) he would go to Ozzy and say listen man, it was the right move but I know how we can take control back. Only I know you have the idol so in the next vote you play the idol and one of them goes home and we have the numbers again.

I love that move by everyone and I was shocked to see them do it.

That challenge was one of the best ones they have ever done and it was so close at the end. Good job by the producers. I also loved the elimination challenge.

Good season so far even with terrible Brandon and Coach.

Ozzy has never seemed to be strategically aware of what is going on around him. Given that he has the hii, if he figures out when to play it, and the fact that he will most likely dominate redemption challenges I'm sure he will make it deep into the game.

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I think Jim was the one behind all that not Cochran.

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This. Cochran might be smart, but a big part of being smart in this game is reading people. Cochran's inability to fit in with other people is a clear sign that he can't read them or sway them. And that's going to be a problem. The last similar player I can remember was Stephen "The Wizard" from JT's season. But he could actually interact with people. So far, Cochran cannot. So I can't see what his brains are going to help him strategically.

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I think Jim was the one behind all that not Cochran.

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Absolutely agreed. This last move was 100% Jim, but I saw something in Cochran that makes me think he will be a huge player if he makes it past the merge.

Despite all his fanaticism over studying the show, Cochran understands the game in theory but not in practice. Since he's been put in a corner he's been forced to radically evolve how he acts, and he's shown that he's a real quick study. Overnight, he's gone from someone afraid to get in the water to the hardest worker in the tribe. A light clicked and he got it. I think the same thing will happen with his social skills. If he hangs with Jim a bit longer, I believe he will understand the not just the theory behind strategic maneuvering but how to actually do it. Combine that with his knowledge of the game and his booksmarts, and he could become a very powerful player in the second half of the game. Especially if he's still viewed as a weakling who isn't a threat in challenges.

Basically, with most survivors what you see is what you get. They aren't able or willing to adapt their gameplan/strategy so their is little progress from beginning of the game to the end of game. The players who are strong at the finale were strong at the beginning of the show. Cochran breaks that mold. He's shown a complete willingness and ability to evolve. Darwinianism at it's finest: evolve or die. I think that he can and will continue to evolve and his social game will catch up with everyone else and exceed the players who refuse to evolve (Ozzy).

But now that I've typed all that, Cochran will likely get voted off next week.

One of my twin sons (13 years old) asked his twin brother if he wants to ride the "Coch Train" after he saw Ozzy's vote.

Wife and I laughed and tried not to let him see us.

These guys are falling into really clear "complete idiot" and "smarter than I probably would have expected", with nobody really hanging out in the middle. Every time I think LilHantz can't say or do something dumber, he does. Ozzy completely lost it. Coach is playing the Rob game, but it won't work out for him the way it worked out for Rob.

Really just pulling for Sophie and Albert and Jim at this point.

Jim is coming across as a lot of fun...and a gamer.

Jim was freakin' legit on that slingshot. On the game-winner, he even pulled the "Oh, am I a bad-ass?" celebration maneuver. I think he's just a little too slick and not subtle enough for his own good, and even though he'll probably know when they're coming for him, he won't be able to save himself - hope I'm wrong.

I continue to like the game Coach is playing, it's nice to see someone actually improve on their game when given the chance to come back (basically the opposite of what both Russell and Ozzie did/are doing). His comment about playing some of your cards but not all of them at TC might come back to haunt him though if the others aren't too dense to read into it.

I also like the way Coach has changed his game from past seasons and wouldn't mind seeing him win it.

I'm enjoying how the teams appear to be evenly matched. Should be good fun when the merge happens.

If the tribes are even at the merge, and the player returns from Redemption Island at that time, just think how much power he/she will have for that first post-merge tribal council.

Lots of questions on how, or even if, the immunity idols would be played at that vote. I guess it all depends on who the returnee is.

I had to laugh at the split screen of Brandon and Russell walking.

I have a unique walk, and people have said my 7 year old son walks exactly like me.

Well, I walk exactly like my brothers.

So, my son walks exactly like his uncles.

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If the tribes are even at the merge, and the player returns from Redemption Island at that time, just think how much power he/she will have for that first post-merge tribal council.

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I'd think she'd just go with Ozzie's tribe since she can't stand Coach's.

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I'd think she'd just go with Ozzie's tribe since she can't stand Coach's.

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that's assuming it's whatever her name is that's won 4 challenges. if she makes it, then yes, she'll definitely go to ozzy's tribe. if not, I do agree that that person could end up being a crucial swing vote.

as for the rest of the episode, great episode. I really didn't have a good sense of who was going. I'd predicted from the 1st or 2nd episode that sophie will win and this definitely was a big blow to her and albert. I think they're just going to have to be loyal soldiers for a little while and not put the targets on their backs (go to coach and say "sorry we had to go against you guys, it was the best decision in our minds for the tribe and while we disagreed on that matter, we're moving forward with you". doesn't seem irreparable (certainly no more so than the schism in the other tribe, and they seem to be ok).

while i can't stand brandan, I must say, he's great for the game. The best people to have on the show are unpredictable people (you don't want everyone to be unpredictable, but it's good to have a few wild cards). he makes idiotic decisions, is all over the place, and it constantly forces everyone to be on their toes. I'd hate to play with him, but I love what it does to the rest of the tribe.

Jim is definitely shaping up to be a major power player. He has a good read on how he wants to position himself (using ozzy for team challenges, then later as a shield). I do question, like others, his ability to socially get himself in those positions, but props to him for engineering getting out elyse and keeping ozzy on his side. as long as he can keep the heat off of him, he should go far.

great to see some people really playing the game. great season so far.

The odds are that Christine finally will meet her demise vs. Mikayla at Redemption Island. She's won 4 in a row, but against who? Semhar, Papa Bear, and Elyse were just not very competitive. Stacey probably should have beaten her but i believe she was already checked out by the team she got to Redemption Island. Mikayla is a good competitor and has a decisive advantage. I think she is a strong candidate to be the RI returnee if RI doesnt last much longer.

Jim got Elyse out and there hasnt been one peep about him being responsible. Credit to him. All the heat came down on Keith.

I am rooting for Jim because he isnt afraid to make a move and go after those on top. It was dump to keep whats her head over Mikayla, I hope it come back to bite them.

Im very late to these episodes....but Cochran had the line of the century IMHO


Ozzy.....is just acting like...... A STUPID BICH.

i died laughing when he said this. I think it was so funny because I was expecting something nerdy and intellectual to come out of his mouth.....and stupid bich perfectly described the way he was acting.

Coach's evangelism gives me diarrhea.

I thought that Upolu was gonna get DQ'd in that challenge for not untying the last bag and instead ripping it off. You can clearly see fabric hanging on the loop, it reminded me of the time the tribe forgot to put the lock and chain in the boat in one of the earlier seasons.

Comedic gold:

-LilHantz is Lenny from Mice and Men.

-Coach leading prayers for God to help find an idol that he already has. Then leading thankful prayers for victory.

-Probst making ridiculous stretches trying to tie the worst looking movie of all time into the game. Coach then talking about the lessons the movie taught.

-Cochran continues to suck at everything.

-Ozzy doesn't know the difference between big moves and freaking stupid ones. This may trump JT giving Russell on the other tribe and immunity idol as one of the dumber moves ever.

Is Ozzy the dumbest contestant ever?

Well, if it works, it's genius. But I don't know why once they have the final 5 if they don't get rid of him as soon as he doesn't have the immunity.

Luck is not genius. If it works, he got lucky. EIther way, it was just dumb. Especially when the challenges are stupid stuff like shuffleboard. I guess you could consider it big risk-big reward, but the payout is pretty slim considering the odds.

To me, the dumbest thing about this is that they have seen Christine flip her old tribe off (during a RI challenge a few weeks ago). So why do they suddenly feel that she's some major threat to them by rejoining Coach's group? This just took a major turn for the dumb.

It's a bold idea, and a refreshing change to the game, but what was said above is right - Christine would completely flip to their side if she won RI against Cochran. Now Ozzie has put the HI in the hands of the guy who professes to be a student of the game and has watched every single episode. I'm not sure he's ever getting that HI back.

I'm still deciding whether I think it's a risky but smart move, or just dumb. ozzy's very obviously playing this game emotionally, so I don't fully trust his decision making, but here's why I think it makes some sense.

you have to assume the merge is coming up. from a production standpoint, merging at 12 is much better than 10. if the teams are even (6-6), then someone has to switch (or let it go to a tie, which someone usually doesn't want to happen), which is good for the game. if the sides are uneven 7-5 or worse, then the more people the larger tribe has, the higher the chance that a small minority will realize their place in the pecking order and be willing to switch when the time is good. with a 10 person merge, 5 or 6 can more easily stick together longer.

so that said, it's a pretty safe assumption that they're going to merge. so knowing that, ozzy has to win 1 competition against christine. she's done very well and certainly they could have a competition where his athletic skills are mitigated, but I'd be willing to bet it's some type of endurance competition. anything outside of one that benefits being smaller (like some of the ones where you have to standing on smaller pieces of wood that benefit smaller footed people), he should have a distinct advantage.

so based on those two assumptions, he's got, let's say a 50% chance of coming back in the game immediately (and an additional percentage of getting back in the game if he has to win a few redemption island challenges). so assuming he comes back in the game, they'd have 6, and then with christine wanting nothing to do with her old tribe, they'd legitimately have 7 members and could obliterate the other tribe (if they wanted, I could see Jim and Cochran making deals down the road if it benefited them).

if they vote cochran out to redemption island, let's just say he has a much smaller chance of returning. so at best, you'd have at best, 6 on 6 with no guarantee that someone wouldn't switch over.

so essentially, they're taking a chance to regain control of the game, which I think is VERY unlikely if they just sent in cochran. Again, it relies on the fact that the merge is coming up next, but as i mentioned, I think that's a safe assumption. and if it's not until 10, then it really doesn't matter, because they'll probably still end up with a numbers disadvantage, but with less members and based on how solid the other tribe looks right now, they might be dumb enough to actually stick together like rob's tribe last year (in fact, that's probably another thing they have to figure into things...if coach's tribe is as solid as they seem right now, then you have to figure your chances of bringing someone over from their tribe are even lower).

also, the whole thing works because ozzy is volunteering, as opposed to it being put on him. that presumably guarantees that he comes back and has no problem rejoining the tribe. if cochran gets voted out and comes back, I don't think he's so happy about joining back up with them.

lots of different scenarios can play out, and it very well could end up not working for them. but it does give them a better chance at regaining the numbers. the question is, whether that's better for some of the members of their tribe or if they might not be better off going in with a numbers disadvantage and trying to find some holes in coach's alliance. but to me, that's an even poorer bet.

[This message has been edited by Doug Christie (edited 10/27/2011 7:59a).]

what are the odds that production hinted they'd go his way in the challeneges on RI? To make this leaps seems incredibly stupid especially giving up the idol.

If the challenge is a swimming event, you know the fix is in to keep Ozzy.

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so assuming he comes back in the game, they'd have 6, and then with christine wanting nothing to do with her old tribe, they'd legitimately have 7 members and could obliterate the other tribe

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Am I missing something? If Ozzy comes back, there is no Christine.

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Am I missing something? If Ozzy comes back, there is no Christine.

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duh, sorry. you're right...the main advantage then is just that ozzy is more reliable than christine as an ally.

nevermind, this plan doesn't make as much sense.

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If the challenge is a swimming event, you know the fix is in to keep Ozzy.

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They showed part of the challenge in the preview for next week. It doesn't appear to be swimming.

It's that one they did last season where you have to tie the sticks together to create one really long stick and grab the key that's really far away and unlock your cage door.

I just can't see it any other way then you are sending someone away with no greater than a 50% chance of coming back. Meanwhile, you now have a greater than 50% chance of losing the next immunity challenge because you've dumped your best player in that regard. The odds don't at all stack up.

yeah, you're right...I was running the numbers wrong.

oh well, I'm fine with ozzy leaving. hopefully it ends up at 6-6 and we get some deal making.

If I remember correctly Christine has made it pretty clear during the early challenges that she is not happy with the Coach alliance. I think Ozzy may have even been at that challenge where she flipped the bird at the cowboy, so they should know that getting her on their side at the merge has better odds than this play. Ozzy is horrible at strategic thinking and is throwing a desperation hail mary pass, but the game is still in the third quarter.

At this point in the game... both tribes seem pretty unified... there doesn't seem to be that wildcard that is ready to flip... so this type of move... while risky and based on all kinds of assumptions... allows ozzy's tribe to enter the potential merge with the best possible group of 6... if it works out as they think.

If they sent Cochran, and he loses to Christine... and then she comes back at the merge... she may join them... but she may not. They think she may hate her old tribe, but they don't know that for sure.