Thanks. Forgot that Whitney would also be excluded with the idol. I don't understand Ozzie's tribe being so content with the draw rocks aspect as they felt they had the numbers. 3 against 4 are not great numbers. I guess they felt there was no chance of turning someone from the other side so drawing rocks was their only chance.

*** Yeah, my math skills are lacking. 2 vs 5. Thanks. ***

[This message has been edited by CobraKaiNeverDie (edited 11/3/2011 1:27p).]

It was 5-2.

Cochran
Jim

Coach
Albert
Sophie
LilHanz
Edna

unless i'm mistaken it'd have been 2 vs 5, not 3 vs 4.



edit: yeah, what he said ^

[This message has been edited by hbc07 (edited 11/3/2011 1:26p).]

And the 5-2 is after you already have a 1 in 3 chance of playing the idol on the right player (Jim, Keith, Whit...assuming they are hoping tor a Coch flip) and nullifying all of the other tribe's votes if Coch doen't tell them who it's being played on. Effective use of the idol as far as timing. With no players safe, the other tribe only had a 1 in 6 chance in getting it right with their own idol. So the odds were pretty stacked in their favor.

It may yet prove to have been a stupid move, but Cochran's move was definitely not cowardly. The coward's move would have been to bow to the pressure from Ozzy, Jim and Keith.

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Another reason I could never do that show...as there would be a tribal throwdown if he said that to me.

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He wouldn't of said it to anyone that would do something about it.

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Another reason I could never do that show...as there would be a tribal throwdown if he said that to me.

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He wouldn't of said it to anyone that would do something about it.

If you hit another cast member, you are immediately kicked off. So he may very well have said it to someone who would have done something about it. I'd take a hit to up my odds. This is a favorite tactic amongst the casts of the Real World Road Rules Challenges.

finally watched last night

on one hand, i understand his move..

on the other hand, cochran went from the 6th wheel to the 7th wheel

next episode is going to be really interesting...

it will also be interesting to see what happens when coach has to start voting off members of his alliance



and personally, i really hope brandon gets voted out at some point...not because i dont like him, but because the meltdown is going to be epic...

also, did whitney actually played the idol? i think i accidentally fast forwarded (i usually ff through the voting) too far

Ozzy gave it to Jeff on her behalf.

I thought Ozzy played it for her.

well that was a bonehead move

wtf is it with ozzie and the idols..lol

[This message has been edited by gambochaman (edited 11/4/2011 10:31a).]

disagree that it was boneheaded for him to play it for her. it was his team's best guess as to who the other tribe was most likely to vote for.

and keep in mind, cochran told them that they were using it on whitney. so any chance of the other side voting for her went out the window, and they just decided to play it on the big dumb guy.

had cochran not told her, it might very well have been a good decision, but we'll never know.

The only boneheaded thing about it was telling Cochran they were going to use it, and on who, so he could tell the other guys. I assume they only told him to convince him how great the odds were and so he would hold strong. He apparently can't help running his mouth.

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on the other hand, cochran went from the 6th wheel to the 7th wheel

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right, but 7th wheel in a winning alliance is better than 6th wheel in a losing alliance.

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it will also be interesting to see what happens when coach has to start voting off members of his alliance

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I see them largely pagonging the other tribe. they seem loyal to each other; not as much as Rob's tribe, but pretty close...there was no budging from them in the last episode and that tells me they're willing to stay together for now.

Cochran makes it a bit more interesting because at some point, they will have to start eating their own, plus cochran is not an immunity threat. but in the meantime, I'm guessing they'll pick off the other tribe one by one until there's 1 or 2 left. only way that doesn't happen is if one of the other people starts deciding to make deals. Edna's close to coach, so she won't do it. Brandon's a wild card, but is close to Coach, so he won't do it...plus, he seems like he's willing to just be loyal now. Albert and Sophie could make a move, but they're pretty well set as the power sub-alliance with Coach, so it really doesn't make sense to mess that up. and rick's a nobody.

unfortunately, I think we're headed for a Pagonging.

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right, but 7th wheel in a winning alliance is better than 6th wheel in a losing alliance.

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I'll take 6th wheel in a losing alliance with plenty of game left to play over 7th wheel in a winning alliance with what's sure to be 5 of 9 jury members hating my guts too much to vote for me.

Question: is it possible to think both Ozzy's move last week and Cochran's move this week are smart? I think they are both dumb, but does anyone who rationalized Ozzy's move as a big balls play for $1M from the jury also respect Coch's move when it has the exact opposite effect?

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I'll take 6th wheel in a losing alliance with plenty of game left to play over 7th wheel in a winning alliance with what's sure to be 5 of 9 jury members hating my guts too much to vote for me.

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I don't disagree (my original post said as much). just pointing out that it's not as simple as numbers. 7th in a 7-person alliance might mean you're the swing vote when it gets to 7, plus it gives you cover for longer. but I do agree that he still would have been better off not making more enemies than he did.

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Question: is it possible to think both Ozzy's move last week and Cochran's move this week are smart? I think they are both dumb, but does anyone who rationalized Ozzy's move as a big balls play for $1M from the jury also respect Coch's move when it has the exact opposite effect?

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I think we're always too quick to label any big move as the dumbest move ever. in my mind, the dumbest move ever is every time a player is in the 4th or 5th position in their alliance and doesn't do anything to improve that, and inevitably goes out sometime before the finals. We tend to think a lot in terms of odds, but in the end, you have one chance to play the game (not 100 times, where the odds of making a safer move will win more times than not). it's not like poker where you have many many hands, and if you play the odds, you'll come out on top more often than not. Sometimes, you have to make a big move...it may blow up in your face, or it may drastically increase your chances of winning.

Neither Ozzy's or Cochran's moves were anywhere close to the "dumbest moves ever". Even JT's move last year was at least arguably smart (though certainly naive), because had russell been anyone other than russell, it might have gotten JT much further in the game.

What are the odds that Cochran realized that he had no chance of winning regardless of which group he aligned with, and being such a fan of the game, he just really wanted to make a move that people would remember? A few seasons from now, I won't remember the runner up, and maybe not even the winner, but I'll remember Cochran.

the other thing is that both ozzy and cochran were in positions where their position was not nearly as strong. better to make a big move when you still have a chance to change your position than waiting for yourself to get voted out by overwhelming numbers.

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If you have seen Survivor and you don’t know who Dawn is, she's the one who looks like Gollum from Lord of The Rings. Dawn cried this week (5 points) because she didn’t know why the rest of her tribe treated Cochran, the Harvard Law School Survivor Super Fan, so poorly. I'll tell you why, Dawn: Because he is a Harvard Law School Survivor Super Fan.

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The plan looked great on paper: Ozzy goes to Redemption Island, pretends he was blindsided by Cochran playing the idol, wins the challenge, the tribes merge, then they send Cochran to infiltrate the other team. Cochran thought this was a great plan and that he was "in control of the game" (5 points). What he didn’t consider was that the plan's mastermind was so much of a stoner that you could probably get high from smoking his toenails. Mind you, this man was also was the star of a weird porny Playboy Channel reality show. If you were going to rob a bank and you asked your fellow masked criminals, “Guys, hold on a sec — who came up with this plan again?” and they responded, “Jenna Jameson!” Would you carry it out? No, you wouldn’t.

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If anyone ever hires Cochran as a lawyer, it's because they've either never seen Survivor or they just want to tell whomever's suing them, “Oh yeah? Well my lawyer is Johnny Cochran! NOW WHAT?”

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is that from the grantland reality scorecard? those have been fun reads (and much less shameful than actually watching basketball wives, real world, etc).

Yep. Jacoby has actually made me consider starting to watch Basketball Wives. Disappointed I didn't put together the Johnny Cochran thing until he did.

[This message has been edited by 20ag07 (edited 11/4/2011 12:39p).]

Gollum=Dawn

Ozzy's vote read Coc(blur....) He clearly voted for Coc sucker.

[This message has been edited by 20ag07 (edited 11/9/2011 7:52p).]

I told my wife the same thing 07....very funny

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EW: you told me when filming began that there would be no group duels this season, yet by my math we have three dudes hanging out on Redemption Island. What gives?

Prost: Yes, I did say that and I was trying to find a simple way to say that generally speaking duels will only be one on one. I think there are two times where we have double eliminations and have to have a 3 person duel. But only the winner stays. The two losers are out.

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I really don't like redemption Island. I prefer reward challenges over RI.

yeah, i don't mind redemption island pre-merge, but post-merge, once you're out, you should be out.

glad they decided to show two eliminations. nothing significant is going to happen, votes-wise until we at least get to 8. Cochran better be making inroads with someone right now. If I were him, I'd be working my way in with Sophie and Albert. If they can show they're solidly together, then they can hopefully get coach to side with them. At this point though, Coach would probably be better of siding with Edna, Brandon and Rick, as they wouldn't have a chance beating him in a final 3.

Me too. Especially the reward challenges where the reward provides a significant advantage to the winning team (HII clues don't count) or where Jeff makes the winner choose who will join in the reward. Those situations require careful social maneuvering strategy.

Hidden Immunity Idol needs to be completely revamped. It is far too easy to find

Unedited Ozzy vote not nearly as entertaining as I'd assumed.

http://www.realityblurred.com/realitytv/archives/survivor_south_pacific/2011_Nov_10_ozzy-cochran-vote

i figured it'd be cockhead.

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Me too. Especially the reward challenges where the reward provides a significant advantage to the winning team (HII clues don't count) or where Jeff makes the winner choose who will join in the reward. Those situations require careful social maneuvering strategy.

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meant to say this too. I really think that this is a vital part of the game, because it reveals, to some degree where sub-allegiances are, and even if you take someone not in your sub-alliance, does your ally know that they can still trust you?

RI is just Jeff's way of bringing back his favorite big strapping guy so he can verbally fellate said big strapping guy for as long as possible.