CBS promo confirmed the merge was this week (which I'm pretty sure the preview after the ep ignored), so one of the wild cards in the plan is out.

Here we go...

Does Ozzy even get to play on his "big move" later now that it's been completely nullified?

Not sure why he didn't think Keith would be on the top of the list to get voted off by the Upolos...

They screwed up, but the reason why people don't flip like that is exactly what's gong to happen to Cochran. The other tribe doesn't need him to keep the numbers. It'll still be 6-4 if they get rid of Cochran.

But, I did like whagt Brandon said.

We'll see how smart Cochran really is if he starts playing up his JesusFreak next week.

In some ways I like Cochran...in other ways I can't stand him. You're such a "student of the game" and you go this route, that's fine. But don't sit there and immediately start begging for forgiveness and "I'll explain guys...I had to". Stand there like a man...make your move...shut up...don't look back...and move one.

What a little s***.

The worst part of it for him is that he just cost himself at least 5 jury votes. Regardless of how he saw his own position, every member of his tribe that now goes to the jury is going to place the blame solely on him and he'll never be able to win back their vote.

The only way he gets to the jury is if someone brings him along so he wn't get any votes.

Has there ever been a 40+ female cast member that was worth anything? I hate Dawn. Hate her. "I'm thinking about flipping. I don't care if I go home. I just want to prove a point that I don't like the way things have been going around here." Wins immunity. "I tried to tell Cochran that flipping is just not right. It just isn't right." STFU and stop crying.

if ozzy had kept his mouth shut and just glared at his tribe instead of being hte worst actor ever, his move could have potentially worked.

nah. his acting didnt help, but the move was transparent regardless.

Agree he should have kept his mouth shut. That monologue was AWFUL!

Should just have had Ozzy say nothing, and Cochran sitting by himself during redemption challenge.

BTW, did Keith go to Redemption Island? I thought they weren't bringing that back after the merge.

quote:

---

BTW, did Keith go to Redemption Island?

---

That's what it looked like. Seriously...how many times does someone have to get voted off of this game before they're gone. Dumb

quote:

---

EW:Would you ever in a million years change your vote to avoid it? And is it indeed an act of cowardice to do so?

Probst:I think Cochran changed his vote for a few reasons and the number one reason is that he felt bullied by his tribe. So given the chance to go to the other tribe was appealing because he might improve his position from bottom of the totem pole and if nothing else, “pay back is a *****, Ozzy.” Would I draw rocks? Depends. Jim’s logic made no sense to me because he kept saying that his “tribe” had the better odds, because they had two people with immunity, but Jim still had the same odds as everyone else. This is an individual game. At that point in the game I am not going to draw rocks. This is a zero sum game which means there is only one winner. I’m not drawing a f—ing rock this early in the game. Too many moves left to make. I like Cochran’s move. He’s a long shot to win so he went for broke.

---

Disagree with Probst. It is still a team game for at least another 3-6 days after the merge.

I think Probst is a little off on that, but the f-bomb made it worth it anyway.

I think it was a good move for Cochran, he doesn't have a chance of winning with his old tribe so why not roll the dice. It's better than the weak player who never does anything but go along with the plan until it's their turn to go home. Agree with Stive though, he should have just kept his mouth shut after the vote.

If Cochran can survive this week, he has a good shot to get to the jury. He has to play, "no one will vote for me. "

Cochran had already lost the game long before now. I don't think it really mattered what he did, although this move probably keeps him in longer because now he gets to play the role of the no-vote-getting leper that people like to carry to the end. This may help him win some 3rd place prize money or something.

[This message has been edited by Danny Duberstein (edited 11/3/2011 9:10a).]

Had Ozzy's team kept come out of the rock situation one member up, I think Cochran would have lasted a long time. When those guys have to start turning on each other, he wouldn't have been an early target. He's been useless to that team, and they've been dragging him along the whole time. I see no reason they wouldn't have continued to do so and eliminated bigger threats. In that situation, he could have put together a better jury speech to what probably would have been a more friendly jury.

His new alliance is less likely to drag him along as far, and even if they do, he will face a hostile jury.

quote:

---

Has there ever been a 40+ female cast member that was worth anything? I hate Dawn. Hate her. "I'm thinking about flipping. I don't care if I go home. I just want to prove a point that I don't like the way things have been going around here." Wins immunity. "I tried to tell Cochran that flipping is just not right. It just isn't right." STFU and stop crying.

---

In Dawn's defense, the odds of losing one of their tribe members changed considerably after they won both immunities. I could do without the crying, but I don't have any problem with her changing her mind about speaking up/flipping.

Cochran was in a tight spot whatever he did. He has a better chance of going further re-shuffling the cards than he does hanging with his old tribe where he is clearly the 6th wheel.

I'm with 20ag. I think his best bet was stick with his original tribe...eliminate Coach's group completely if possible...and play the "I'm not beating anyone in an individual challenge so keep me around" role. Now, he's hated by his original tribe, still on the outside of Coach''s 6 , and is cannon fodder if somehow he gets close to the final 3. He's an outcast on both sides.

To do that kind of move, he needed at least Dawn to go with him. If there are two outsiders going that route I think you can pull it off because the threat of floating back and forth between the tribes is more powerful. Now he's expendable either way.

quote:

---

Not sure why he didn't think Keith would be on the top of the list to get voted off by the Upolos...

---

From what I understand/have heard, the rules are if the result of the first two votes is ultimately a tie, then the people who were voted for are not eligible for the rock drawing. So if you are trying to get rid of strong player from another team it would make sense that you wouldn’t vote for him the first time if you are relatively certain the ultimate vote would be a tie, thus rendering him ineligible to be “voted” off via rocks.

So, if that rule is indeed true, it was reasonable for Ozzy and Company to assume that Upolo wouldn’t vote for Keith or Jim who were the strongest remaining members of the tribe without immunity. That left Whitney and Cochran as options. They made the assumption that Upolo wouldn’t vote off Cochran based on his “double agent” activities, which left Whitney.

Having said all of that, I don't remember the not eligible for rock drawing because you've already been voted for rule having been explicitly stated on screen, I’ve just seen it written about among other viewers. It would explain the thinking behind giving Whitney the idol.




[This message has been edited by AgDC (edited 11/3/2011 10:06a).]

^Makes sense- I missed this part go down:

quote:

---

The next step is to decide what to do with the idol. Jim says Upolu would never think Whitney has it so that decide to give it to her to play. And Jim’s right. They never would think Whitney has it…unless someone tells them! After informing us that he’s scared of an even 1 out of 30 chance of going home on rocks, John goes and spills the beans to Sophie on the entire Savaii plan: That they plan to vote for Rick and are giving Whitney the idol. In exchange for said info, all he asks for in return from Coach are priority sleeping arrangements.

---

I haven't liked almost anything Brandon has said or done this season, but he hit the nail on the head with his comment. Jim & the rest of Upolo needs to realize they can't command someone to follow orders if they treat him like crap.

Regardless of how this season plays out, Cochran needs to learn to stand up for himself. He was doing what was in his best interest and he shouldn't have to apologize for that. Besides, he took out one of the bigger individual immunity threats and everyone should be grateful for that.

The last few seasons have been people playing an individual game way before the merge. This time it has swung the opposite way and people playing a tribe game after the merge.

I missed what Brandon said that you guys are referring to. Was it after the switch vote, when Brandon said something to Jim/Ozzy? What exactly did he say?

http://www.realityblurred.com/realitytv/archives/survivor_south_pacific/2011_Nov_03_cochran-deleted-sceneThis is interesting...

Stive, Jim called Cochran a coward. Brandon said something like, "Don't call him that. This is why he did it. You can't treat people like that. ". Then he told Cochran to stay close to him.

Hantz ain't the biggest, but he's crazy and looks like he's spent time in prison. That's who I want at my back.

20ag07's deleted scene link is interesting... Cochran was somewhat promised a final 4 spot with coach, albert and sophie... not sure its a legit promise... but it makes sense that if they get ride of ozzy's bunch... and then are left with coach's crew + cochran... then already having cochran with them is a pretty genius move.

I can't blame cochran for flipping... (even before seeing that deleted scene)... his tribe has clearly told him from day 1 that they didn't want him... but now that they need his vote... he must follow with them or he is a coward... and that is exactly what a bully does to the weak nerd

I don't think cochran has much of a chance either way... but why should be be bullied to remain loyal to the tribe that didn't want him? their discussions where commical... 'everyone is OK with drawing rocks... right... right... right cochran?'

and i gained a new level of respect for brandon last night... the way he quickly took up for cochran... he may be crazy... but that was a classy move

I don't have a huge problem with Cochran's move, because as most have mentioned, he's screwed either way. and with that deleted scene, he certainly would have more reason to at least hope that he can get further (however much of a longshot it is). at some point, coach's tribe will have to start eating their own and the numbers could work in his favor to get further.

but all that said, I think his better move would have been to stick with his original tribe. Had he stuck with his team, and ended up with the numbers advantage (because someone from coach's tribe lost on rocks) then they have a numbers advantage, he's not a target, stayed true to his alliance, while still giving him some room to work to make side alliances to get him further in the game.

if their tribe lost someone, then he could say "you know what guys, I stuck by you but now I've just gotta play for myself". that would leave him in a position where I don't think he'd have lost votes from them were he to make it to the jury vote (however unlikely that might be). basically, he wouldn't have alienated 5 other people, many of whom he'll still be playing with and possibly asking to vote for him. he essentially is a free agent with no blood on his hands.

of course, there's the possibility that he would draw the rock, and that's the obvious risk. but to me, that's a risk you can take, if you're weighing all your options.

so now, he's the 7th in a 7 person alliance (even if he's getting assurances of being the 4th of a smaller alliance, you can't believe that on face). he has 4 other people (5, if keith comes back) that are aiming to take him out (dawn might be an exception), not to mention the general uncomfortableness he's going to experience from them for however long they're in the game. he's basically made himself an even bigger target, while not gaining much.

I can understand wanting to make a big move and make his own decision about who he aligns with, and it certainly seems like the other tribe will be better to him. but ultimately, it's an emotional decision that wasn't a better game move for him, IMO. I feel bad for the guy, cuz he's probably having his childhood replayed here, but that shows how different understanding the game is vs. actually playing it and using your social skills to play the other people.

I don't know if he made himself a bigger target, at least from a vote perspective. Since he's cemented his leper status & he's not much of an immunity challenge threat, it seems like it would be a waste to vote for him. If I were one of his tribe bullies, I'd probably enjoy keeping him around so I could make his life miserable around camp for longer. Absolutely agree with the bully comments though. You treat him like **** but just expect him to melt and play along, while offering him no incentive for it? Talk about reaping what you sowed.

[This message has been edited by Danny Duberstein (edited 11/3/2011 12:43p).]

Has no one else noticed how eerily similar Jim looks and sounds to Chief Tyrol from Battlestar Galactica? Insert Final Five puns here.

I'm of a split mind on Cochran's decision. Part of the problem with thinking yourself a master strategist is the itch to do SOMETHING, even when doing nothing might be the superior move. Plenty of do-nothing players have gotten very far in the game, and a few have even won it, by doing absolutely nothing for 99% of the time.

I like Jim, but I don't like the "coward" comment. Was what Cochran did any worse than what he helped do to Ozzie's little GF a few tribals ago? That was doing what you think is best to get ahead in the game; Cochran is entitled to his own opinion, and if he doesn't like a 1-in-10 chance of getting eliminated by rock, hey, he's a grown man.

I think he could make waves in the Coach-tribe because at some point those people have to start asking themselves - how far do we let Coach - who has the idol and the most experience - get? Are we going to let him waltz to $1m ala Boston Rob?

In hindsight, his best play might have been to refuse to give Ozzie the idol back and spoken up in front of the entire tribe and said - hey, the 3 of you on either tribe who know you're the weak part of your 6, c'mon over to Tribe Cochran and we'll take out Ozzie, Coach, Sam Elliott and every other physical threat and turn this into a battle of wits.

quote:

---

In hindsight, his best play might have been to refuse to give Ozzie the idol back and spoken up in front of the entire tribe and said - hey, the 3 of you on either tribe who know you're the weak part of your 6, c'mon over to Tribe Cochran and we'll take out Ozzie, Coach, Sam Elliott and every other physical threat and turn this into a battle of wits.

---

no way that would have worked. coach's tribe is very strong now. nobody's jumping ship at this point, even if it might make sense to do so. in survivor, people do not jump unless they feel insecure with their position. even the weakest in coach's tribe (brandon and edna) feel like their best bet is sticking with coach.

I can't stand Brandon but I gained some respect for him taking up for Cochran. I also like how he pointed at his face as he told him not to talk to him like that. He's got a bit of honeybadger in him.

Calling another man a coward isn't a minor thing. It goes to show what little thoughts/respect they have of Cochran and that ultimately it was the right move for him.

Another reason I could never do that show...as there would be a tribal throwdown if he said that to me.

[This message has been edited by Lobster Twins (edited 11/3/2011 1:01p).]

In terms of the drawing rocks, would it have been 8 or 10 people drawing?

Obviously the two winners of the challenge wouldn't have to draw: Ozzie and Dawn. But wasn't it stated that the two (or more) people that were still tied, would not have to draw? That was the whole logic of why Ozzie and crew thought that Whitney would get the votes and not Keith.

If that is the case, I would hate the odds of 1 in 8 of going home. 1 in 10 isn't much better but its better.

7 people drawing. Ozzy, Dawn, Keith, Rick, and Whit with the idol all exempt.