*****Official RPI and Seed Watch Thread*****

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Detective Jake Peralta
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7:41a, 5/25/26
AG
Happy selection day, everyone!

Apologies again for abandoning the thread I started at a crucial time. I'm back to stable WiFi now just in time for the selection show. I wasn't able to follow most of the scores as they happened, but another poster on this board can confirm that I blind picked 15/16 hosts in a text to them last night.

Now for today: Ags check in at 14 in the RPI, 9 in the KPI, and 7 in the DSR. I think another win over Auburn would have locked in our spot in the top 8, but we sit squarely on the bubble for that all important cutoff.

The big question is what metric will matter most. Let's see if there are any clues in the host selections. Of the top 16 in each ranking:
- 14/16 in the rpi are hosting
- 14/16 in the KPI
- 13/16 in the DSR

Rough look for people like myself (and the D1 guys) that thought DSR would be important. But I still think it could come into play for seeding. I think the message might actually be that the conference tournaments don't matter…which is great news for A&M. (Using Arkansas as the test case here).

All that being said, here is my final prediction:
1. UCLA
2. Georgia Tech
3. Georgia
4. North Carolina
5. Texas
6. Auburn
7. Alabama
8. Texas A&M
9. Florida
10. Florida State
11. Nebraska
12. Miss State
13. West Virginia
14. Southern Miss
15. Kansas
16. Oregon

Call it blind optimism, a hunch, whatever…I think we see our name called in the top 8. If we were ahead of Florida last week, I think they needed to really make a statement (like make the SECT final at least) to take the top 8. The D1 guys loved Coastal last year with better metrics, and the committee did not reward them. I see a similar situation with Southern Miss this year.

Would NOT shock me if we were anywhere between 7-10. But would love to see everyone's predictions!
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Sean98
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7:43a, 5/25/26
AG
I guess we'll know at 11am. We did not play well the last 4 weekends, in large part because position player injuries put far too much pressure on a really poor pitching staff. We deserve to host. We do not deserve a national seed but the 8-10 bubble is pretty flawed overall.

I'll go ahead and say we end up at 10 with Florida and FSU in front of us. UF is paying better down the stretch. FSU has as good or better metrics than us. I think there's enough excuses between the ratings, recent play and injuries to justify the drop.
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5Amp
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7:50a, 5/25/26
We won our last series against a team that is hosting a regional, we beat Florida heads up.

If the tournament means that much then it should be stated and promoted as such. Look at the horns, they lost bigly.

In 2024, we got swept out of the tournament and ended up in the finals of the CWS.

In 2023, remember how we got screwed after making it to the SEC championship and still didn't host a regional?

Yes, I remember.

We deserve the super regional by our body of work, expect nothing else.
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ensign_beedrill
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In reply to nereus • 7:52a, 5/25/26
AG
nereus said:
Sq 17 said:
The committee has several jobs among them minimize cost and create excitement


The committee is explicitly NOT supposed to do that for the top 16 trams. That is NOT part of their job. They are supposed to give a true 1-16 ranking.

They are supposed to. But they will 100% do things like this when it is within the bounds of reasonable. A ranking that puts College Station and Austin against each other can certainly be justified as reasonable this year.
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LB12MEEN
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7:55a, 5/25/26
AG
I hope we are aligned with the sips. It was clear POS did not want to play us in the SEC tourney.
Gig ‘Em Baby!
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1stGenAg01
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7:56a, 5/25/26
AG
I think head-to-head and geography could play a bigger role in selection criteria this year. I'll take A&M over Florida.
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threeanout
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8:17a, 5/25/26
AG
We ended up being #14 in RPI. The committee obviously uses this as one of their metrics as 14 of the top 16 host sites are in the top 16 in RPI ranking. The one team with a good RPI who got left out was # 9 USC, but they only had one Quad 1 win. The committee awarded host sites to Big 12 champ Kansas #19 and Big 12 runner-up West Virginia who was #17. Ole Miss at #16 was left out.

The top 7 in RPI will all get top 8 seeds.....UCLA, Georgia Tech, Georgia, North Carolina, Auburn, Texas, and Alabama. The 8th spot is up for grabs.

For the overall # 8 seed I am taking a long shot with Big 10 runner up Nebraska (#10 in RPI) and they will be paired with us as the 9 seed.
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Sean98
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8:18a, 5/25/26
AG
I had not remembered that the USM AD was on the committee this year. Definitely possible we could fall to #11 but I'll stick at 10 for now.

I like 3&out going out on a limb but I think Nebraska is closer to the 15 than they are to 8. I think maybe 13-14ish.
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92Ag95
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8:18a, 5/25/26
AG
We'll get left out of the top 8 so they can pair the CS regional with Austin regional.
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Sean98
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In reply to LB12MEEN • 8:22a, 5/25/26
AG
LB12MEEN said:
I hope we are aligned with the sips. It was clear POS did not want to play us in the SEC tourney.
out he's just been around long enough to know that post season conference tourneys are worthless. He said coming into the week that health was their priority and that they were basically punting.
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ensign_beedrill
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In reply to Sean98 • 8:33a, 5/25/26
AG
USM, Florida, and Florida State ADs are all on the committee. There's going to be a fight in that room today.
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ensign_beedrill
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In reply to Sean98 • 8:35a, 5/25/26
AG
Sean98 said:
LB12MEEN said:
I hope we are aligned with the sips. It was clear POS did not want to play us in the SEC tourney.
out he's just been around long enough to know that post season conference tourneys are worthless. He said coming into the week that health was their priority and that they were basically punting.

He said many times when he was with us that the tournament is not important. He never used those exact words, but he implied it.
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Fairview20
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In reply to LB12MEEN • 8:40a, 5/25/26
AG
Now that the NCAA ranks the 2 seeds, its unlikely there will ever be a 2 seed path easier than a host.

Arkansas was on the host bubble, which means if they would've hosted they'd have had one of the best two seeds in their regional. They just flipped with whoever you thought would be the 2 seed in their regional, except now they're on the road.
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Fairview20
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In reply to hogfan14 • 8:42a, 5/25/26
AG
That's why the committee is de-emphasizing RPI. DSR will be the main metric going forward.
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Sean98
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In reply to Fairview20 • 8:46a, 5/25/26
AG
Fairview20 said:
Now that the NCAA ranks the 2 seeds, its unlikely there will ever be a 2 seed path easier than a host.

Arkansas was on the host bubble, which means if they would've hosted they'd have had one of the best two seeds in their regional. They just flipped with whoever you thought would be the 2 seed in their regional, except now they're on the road.
ehhh, sort of. Because of the prohibition on having conference mates paired in Supers it's still VERY likely a fringe host SEC team will get dropped into a subpar regional host.
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tjack16
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In reply to ensign_beedrill • 8:57a, 5/25/26
AG
ensign_beedrill said:
USM, Florida, and Florida State ADs are all on the committee. There's going to be a fight in that room today.


How do we get Trev on this committee in the future? We need some redemption from 2015 and Hyman
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Frok
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9:07a, 5/25/26
AG
Why are ADs from the schools involved? Can they not find neutral sources?
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agsalaska
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9:12a, 5/25/26
AG
9 paired with Florida.

Thats my guess.
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Sgt. Schultz
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9:14a, 5/25/26
AG
Gonna be paired with Auburn
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Bunk Moreland
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9:15a, 5/25/26
Going to be interesting to see how influential DSR will be.
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LB12MEEN
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In reply to Sean98 • 9:23a, 5/25/26
AG
Sean98 said:
LB12MEEN said:
I hope we are aligned with the sips. It was clear POS did not want to play us in the SEC tourney.
out he's just been around long enough to know that post season conference tourneys are worthless. He said coming into the week that health was their priority and that they were basically punting.


He says lots of things but he made it very obvious he did not want to play us again this season by how he managed that game.

He's not always managed it like that. Believe their actions, not their words.

He's already 0-2 this year against us. He did not want to chance 0-3.
Gig ‘Em Baby!
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Sean98
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In reply to LB12MEEN • 9:29a, 5/25/26
AG
I don't understand how texas centric some of you are. He had significant injuries, a guaranteed national seed and nothing to play for. Plenty of folks on this board saying we should have done the same (myself included). Rest the injured, get some PT for guys you may need to call on in an extended regional and get out healthy.

This would have been vs A&M in a mostly empty dead atmosphere Hoover, not a rabid Olsen.
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tjack16
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9:34a, 5/25/26
AG
Where we should be? 8 paired with 9 seed southern Miss

Where will will be? 10 seed paired with Alabama at 7
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Sean98
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In reply to Frok • 9:36a, 5/25/26
AG
Frok said:
Why are ADs from the schools involved? Can they not find neutral sources?
There is no such thing as neutral. Even the 3-4 computer metrics have built in biases. Who would you see as neutral? D1 who is a for profit entity who people would complain benefit the SEC/ACC? 11.7 who would have 45 non power 4 teams in? News media who doesn't even know college baseball exists?

And part of the consideration is facilities, travel costs, accommodations, etc. I.e., budget stuff that is right in the ADs wheelhouse.

I don't love the impact we've clearly seen from ADs on the committee but I'm not sure who you'd pick. ...maybe a mix of ADs and media so that at least the back room deals have a light shining on them?
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Farmer1906
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9:43a, 5/25/26
AG
Looking at A&M vs UF this morning… I think it's going to come down to what's more important big wins or bad losses. Florida has plenty of both. They went on the road and beat Georgia, Oklahoma, Miami, and Arkansas, but lost a series to HIGH POINT. We, on the other hand, had some great wins (fewer than UF) but zero bad losses serious losses, and avoided ever being swept.
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HJack20
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9:45a, 5/25/26
AG
MSU hosting over Arky gives me two clues in how the committee is operating this year.
1. They're using RPI more than some predicted. This ultimately is a bad deal for us, as we'd be in the 9-16 host range.
2. The conference tournaments aren't being weighed heavily. This is good, as Florida's run and our 1&BBQ may not have as much weight.

Personally, I think we are closer to a Top 8 National Seed than it may seem. Prior to the conference tournament, there seemed to be a consensus that we were likely a Top 8 host ahead of Florida. Arkansas not hosting proved that the conference tournament didn't hold as much weight as we thought. Add that to the H2H we own over Florida, and I think it's reasonable to assume we are still ahead of them. Being #8 would not surprise me at all.
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Faustus
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In reply to 92Ag95 • 10:18a, 5/25/26
92Ag95 said:
We'll get left out of the top 8 so they can pair the CS regional with Austin regional.


Texas isn't falling below the 6 seed (if Auburn moves up to 5), so A&M would have to drop to the 11 seed for that pairing, and the 12 seed if Texas stays at the 5 seed.

I don't see A&M falling below 10 and even that seems too low based on the relevant numbers.
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threeanout
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In reply to HJack20 • 10:20a, 5/25/26
AG
The are also factoring in conference standings. Kansas (1st place in Big 12) at RPI # 19 and West Virginia (2nd place in Big 12) with a # 17 RPI are hosting over schools like USC with RPI # 9. Which makes you wonder how much consideration they will give to the SEC team who finished third and a half game behind the team they went 2-0 against.
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SchizoAg
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In reply to Sean98 • 10:21a, 5/25/26
AG
Sean98 said:
Fairview20 said:
Now that the NCAA ranks the 2 seeds, its unlikely there will ever be a 2 seed path easier than a host.

Arkansas was on the host bubble, which means if they would've hosted they'd have had one of the best two seeds in their regional. They just flipped with whoever you thought would be the 2 seed in their regional, except now they're on the road.
ehhh, sort of. Because of the prohibition on having conference mates paired in Supers it's still VERY likely a fringe host SEC team will get dropped into a subpar regional host.
Huh? There obviously is no such prohibition, since it happens every single year. Nor does that seem relevant.
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TAMU1990
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In reply to Faustus • 10:25a, 5/25/26
AG
Faustus said:
92Ag95 said:
We'll get left out of the top 8 so they can pair the CS regional with Austin regional.


Texas isn't falling below the 6 seed (if Auburn moves up to 5), so A&M would have to drop to the 11 seed for that pairing, and the 12 seed if Texas stays at the 5 seed.

I don't see A&M falling below 10 and even that seems too low based on the relevant numbers.

I hope that's correct. I didn't like Brauny's discussion this morning. Be prepared in case we drop lower than that - maybe 14.
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Faustus
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In reply to threeanout • 10:29a, 5/25/26
threeanout said:
The are also factoring in conference standings. Kansas (1st place in Big 12) at RPI # 19 and West Virginia (2nd place in Big 12) with a # 17 RPI are hosting over schools like USC with RPI # 9. Which makes you wonder how much consideration they will give to the SEC team who finished third and a half game behind the team they went 2-0 against.


Kansas and WVU also both had ISR, DSR, and ELO rankings all comfortably in the Top 16 (4 of the 6 scores in the Top 10) looking at RED AG 98's helpful post on the prior page.

USC was ranked Nos. 25, 23, and 12 in ELO, DSR, and ISR respectively.
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LB12MEEN
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In reply to Sean98 • 10:35a, 5/25/26
AG
LOL "Texas centric"

That does not help your argument at all and just a means to deflect when you have nothing to back up your stance. As another poster noted, he can't lose to us if he does not play us.

Those are the facts of his actions. When people show who they are believe them.
Gig ‘Em Baby!
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Farmer1906
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In reply to ensign_beedrill • 10:38a, 5/25/26
AG
ensign_beedrill said:
USM, Florida, and Florida State ADs are all on the committee. There's going to be a fight in that room today.


They're all 3 going to fight to be ahead of A&M. Hello 11 seed vs tu.
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RED AG 98
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In reply to RED AG 98 • 10:39a, 5/25/26
AG
RED AG 98 said:
Someone tell USC that RPI is king. I'm guessing they were close enough with Oregon that the Ducks' h2h series win came into play.

Finally listened to the Nerdcast this morning. Didn't realize USC was only 1-11 in Q1 games. That'll do it.
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HeyAbbott
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:41a, 5/25/26
AG
Brauny was confident that we would not be paired with tu
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