*****Official RPI and Seed Watch Thread*****

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HoustonAg2106
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In reply to HartAg15 • 9:19p, 5/13/26
AG
HartAg15 said:
Do we need a sweep this week to get a top 8 seed, or will a series win do it?


Personally I think just winning the series should do it because our 18-11 will have us finish ahead of the 18-12 teams

Wouldn't hurt to win a game or two in Hoover though for good measure
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CapCityAg89
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 9:26p, 5/13/26
AG
Detective Jake Peralta said:
OP is updated as we head into the final week of the regular season!

I ended up moving A&M up a spot to number seven. I'm biased, of course, but I think it's hard to argue anyone below the Ags as more deserving right now. That could, of course, change after this weekend.

SUMMARY: Despite losing the weekend series for the second consecutive week, A&M controls its own destiny when it comes to the national seed race. In fact, I even moved A&M up a spot to the number 7 national seed this week.

For a team to lose their spot, there has to be someone that rises up to take it. I just don't think that has happened yet. Kansas (swept by West Virginia at home) and Coastal Carolina (lost 2/3 to a bad Old Dominion team) were the big losers this week, opening the door for A&M to stay in top 8 position. A&M and Florida State were close for me, but ultimately I kept the Ags ahead due to the fact that they have two series wins better than the 'Noles' best one.

The goal is very simple for the Ags: win 2/3 vs Mississippi State this weekend and you earn the right to host postseason baseball at Olsen through the Super Regional round.

Texas A&M Snapshot:
37-12 (16-9, 2nd in SEC)
RPI: 10 (-2 from last week)
ELO: 8 (+1)
KPI: 9 (-1)
DSR: 7 (-2)
PEAR NET: 7 (-3)
SoS: 26 (-2)

Q1: 12-11
Q2: 2-0
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 17-0

Updated Seed List:


Potential A&M Path to Omaha:


Just win, baby!

Are the pod matchups here correct? I thought the 29-32 pod matched with NS 1-4. No?
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to CapCityAg89 • 9:32p, 5/13/26
AG
That's what the color-coding is. Yellow 1's matched with yellow 2's, gray with gray, etc.
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CapCityAg89
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9:37p, 5/13/26
AG
Ahh. Makes sense. But why not just put the boxes next to each other. I'm an idiot I guess.
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HartAg15
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In reply to HoustonAg2106 • 11:32p, 5/13/26
AG
Sounds like a plan!
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Detective Jake Peralta
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11:34a, 5/14/26
AG
Added a rooting guide for the weekend to the OP:

A&M Rooting Guide for This Weekend:
SEC:
  • Obviously root for the Ags to win at least 2/3
  • Missouri at Texas - even just one win from the Tigers would be huge for the SEC standings
  • Ole Miss at Alabama - we want the Tide to stay under 18 SEC wins
  • Georgia at Auburn - I'm torn here but staying ahead of Auburn in the SEC standings helps the cause
  • Florida at LSU - We need LSU to win at least one to have a shot at staying Q1
Elsewhere:
  • Miami at Florida State - Canes winning 2/3 in Tallahassee would sink FSU's Top 8 hopes
  • USC at Oregon - We've dismissed USC because of the lack of Q1 wins, but they have a top 8 RPI and I don't want the committee getting any ideas if they take the series in Eugene
  • Georgia Southern at Southern Miss - even one loss for USM would be detrimental. Would drop them to around 14th in the RPI in a vacuum
  • TCU at West Virginia - The Mountaineers could be a surprise Top 8 pick if they win the Big 12 and are sitting in the 12-16 range of the RPI
  • Kansas at BYU - I think the Jayhawks' top 8 hopes are dead but let's just make sure
  • Coastal at Louisiana - see: Kansas
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W
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12:02p, 5/14/26
AG
speaking of West Virginia...

the Mountaineers are one of the few teams that do not have an SoS advantage over A&M

WVU overall SoS is #67

non-conference SoS is 204

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W
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12:22a, 5/15/26
AG
Ags slide down to RPI #15 after Thursday's action

need a win Friday
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Detective Jake Peralta
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11:08a, 5/15/26
AG
Yeah, not a lot went our way last night.

Still have everything to play for over the next two days, but we MUST get at least one to ensure we're hosting a regional.
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W
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1:55p, 5/15/26
AG
Florida State has improved its resume quite a bit in the last 2 weeks

the top 8 seeds are easy for the committee right now

#1 thru #7 in the RPI + Georgia
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W
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2:02p, 5/15/26
AG
and in the 9 thru 16 range...

Florida, Nebraska, Southern Miss, and West Virginia have all but locked in their spot

plus the A&M-State series winner

which leaves 3 hosts among:

Oregon State
Kansas
A&M-State series loser
Wake Forest -- bad Q1 record
Ole Miss -- (if they win series vs. Bama)
Oregon -- (if they win series vs. USC)
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to W • 2:10p, 5/15/26
AG
Ehh, respectfully I wouldn't say any of those four are "locks" or "all but locked up".

If the season ended after last night, sure. But teams 9-18ish in the RPI are going to do a lot of shuffling between now and Saturday night. Just one loss by Southern Miss, for example, to a bad Georgia Southern team would put them around 16 (currently 9th).
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threeanout
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4:08p, 5/15/26
AG
Miss St. may have already locked in a host spot with their win last night. They are at # 10 in RPI and even if they lose the next two, they won't fall much past # 11 or #12 at worst.
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W
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8:33p, 5/15/26
AG
Florida State (38-15) making a push for the top 8

19-10 in the ACC now with 3 series wins over regional teams: Wake, Virginia, and Miami

strong RPI and SoS numbers

will need mercy for the bad sweep at Stanford
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W
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9:20p, 5/15/26
AG
Nebraska, Southern Miss, and Florida take care of business and win their series

Wake Forest and Ole Miss also win to stay in the mix for final host spots
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gmail@ChuckNorris
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10:18p, 5/15/26
How do we win against miss st and not move and them not go down? And tu beats mizzou and moves up. Crazy.
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W
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12:07a, 5/16/26
AG
this is interesting in the RPI:

17. Oregon
18. Oregon State
19. Kansas
20. West Virginia

the Jayhawks officially won the BDF regular season title tonight, but West Virginia swept KU last weekend

Oregon cancelled 2 midweek games against 204 GCU ten days ago -- will the Ducks be penalized

there should be room for 1 or 2 of the four to host
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RED AG 98
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In reply to gmail@ChuckNorris • 12:28a, 5/16/26
AG
Probably rhetorical but what happened is fairly explainable. It's because someone above tu lost... and the RPI point total of ranks 2-5 are really tight. Same with 9-15 as well.


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Sq 17
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In reply to RED AG 98 • 4:52a, 5/16/26
Good reminder there is numeric value to the RPI then ranked get ranked in order
the delta between teams is not uniform
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Detective Jake Peralta
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7:54a, 5/16/26
AG
Quick Saturday Morning (5/16) Update:

MASSIVE win for the Aggies last night that I think locks (98%+) us into hosting at least a regional. I think we all would've signed up for that back in February!

The RPI bump was not as drastic, but as others have mentioned, our win did not happen in a vacuum. Everyone is bunched very tightly together from about 7-16, so there could still be some big movement in the RPI with today's results and next week's conference tournaments.

I also want to once again remind everyone, the RPI is not the end-all-be-all this year as the committee will also have KPI and DSR rankings. Something interesting to note is the softball committee relied on the DSR heavily as 15 of the top 16 in that ranking hosted a regional, and for the most part, were grouped neatly into pods of four based on that ranking (teams 1-4 in the DSR were somewhere in the top 4 national seeds, 5-8 the same, etc.).

Just something to keep in mind! These are different sports and different committees, and the baseball one could decide to just go straight RPI, but I think it means something.

For reference, the Ags were 7th in the DSR before yesterday's win. It has not updated this morning, but we could be as high as 6th, and maybe even push for 5th with another win today.
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GarryowenAg
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 8:23a, 5/16/26
AG
Great analysis! Let's hope we can squeeze out one last win to close the regulars season.
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Fairview20
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 8:33a, 5/16/26
AG
DSR is a much better metric IMO. I hope they go like softball and primarily rely on it.
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McInnis
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 8:58a, 5/16/26
AG
There's really a big difference in UGA's rankings in DSR (no. 4) and RPI (no. 15) this morning. We can be pretty sure which of those will be the most accurate predictor of their national seeding.
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RED AG 98
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In reply to McInnis • 10:46a, 5/16/26
AG
Georgia has won the SEC regular season going away. They will 100% be a top 4 overall seed, which aligns with DSR.

I may be remembering wrong, but I want to say there was a similar delta for our RPI during our run 2 years ago. Or if it wasn't us there were some that were much lower in RPI than historically, again pointing to DSR and other metrics. Add in the softball stuff this year, and there is a bit of precedent that maybe RPI value is reduced in the current climate.

I'm sure KP being involved in DSR doesn't hurt
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Fairview20
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In reply to RED AG 98 • 11:10a, 5/16/26
AG
I think in 2022 our RPI was really low relative to our SEC record.
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W
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12:18p, 5/16/26
AG
one note...

while DSR likes A&M (#7)...it also likes Florida State (#8) -- one of the Ags' top competitors for the final top 8 seeds

DSR does not like Alabama (#16)
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Mr.Ackar07
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3:15p, 5/16/26
Temporary jump to #10. Just single digits ahead of Florida, Nebraska, and Mississippi State. We are less than a point behind Southern Miss which will drop even with a win today, so that will bump us to #9. Florida might stay just barely behind us with a win because of prior opponents games; a Kentucky loss (they are losing by a lot right now) cuts into their score. I think Nebraska will jump us if they hang on to win. Ole Miss might as well with a win. So the Ags should be either 10 or 11 at the end of today.

USC and Alabama are ahead still, but I think they would be the odd ones out in the Top 8 seeding.
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src94
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3:15p, 5/16/26
AG
Back up to 10 in RPI (Warren Nolen)
src94
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RED AG 98
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In reply to src94 • 3:24p, 5/16/26
AG
Nice. We were up to 11 in the first minutes after the game finished. I guess a few more results have come in.
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W
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3:34p, 5/16/26
AG
looking more at Florida State...

the Seminoles went 0-3 vs. Florida in the midweek. Also lost to Auburn in a tournament

so 0-4 vs. the SEC this season

I don't think FSU will beat out an SEC team for the #8 seed. And probably should not be seeded ahead of the Gators.

feels like the #9 or #10 for the 'noles
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Sean98
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 3:45p, 5/16/26
AG
Hell yeah we would have signed up for that. We were picked, what, 13th in the conference? And instead we're going to be well within 13th in the country.

There's still a ton of flaws here (in the dugout and on the mound), and I'll personally be shocked if we make Omaha, but with the way these guys can hit, and if we get Partida back, and Kellner and Hacopian closer to healthy that'll help.
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threeanout
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3:47p, 5/16/26
AG
Miami knocking off Fla St at home can't hurt.
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gmail@ChuckNorris
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3:49p, 5/16/26
Up to 9
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SHSU-AG
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In reply to Sean98 • 3:50p, 5/16/26
Sean98 said:
Hell yeah we would have signed up for that. We were picked, what, 13th in the conference? And instead we're going to be well within 13th in the country.

There's still a ton of flaws here (in the dugout and on the mound), and I'll personally be shocked if we make Omaha, but with the way these guys can hit, and if we get Partida back, and Kellner and Hacopian closer to healthy that'll help.

Flaws on the mound are obvious, but what are the ones in the dugout? Unless you're an Earley hater?
Hustle, hit, never quit!
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to W • 3:50p, 5/16/26
AG
FSU's lack of a true top-end series win will likely limit their ceiling
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