Bubble Watch

130,245 Views | 1067 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by SABUILDERAG
TjgtAg08
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10:50a, 2/15/23
AG
Getting to 13 wins would guarantee us at least 5 Q1 wins and a NET of somewhere in the 27-32 range, which would be more than good enough to make the dance.

Winning tonight could move the discussion from "3 wins to make the dance" to "can we get off the 8/9 seed line?" Win tonight and it sets us up to potentially finish 4-2, and I think that would put us in real consideration for a 7 seed, unless we really s*** the bed in the SEC tournament.
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bobinator
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In reply to AgLA06 • 10:52a, 2/15/23
AG
A marquee win is only needed to help us shift up the seed lines significantly or maybe get in if we only have 11 or 12 wins.

If we get to 13, no matter how we get there, we'll be in easily.
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HossAg
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 10:53a, 2/15/23
AG
Yep. Even now, we need 3 more wins, and we've got potentially 4 games we'll be underdogs in. So we already have to win one that's a toss up at best. That's not even counting tonight's game.
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bobinator
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11:01a, 2/15/23
AG
FWIW, now that we've cleared LSU I'm even more confident that we're in at 12 without much issue but that's not going to be something we need to worry about. We're gonna win 3-4 more.
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Fairview20
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11:04a, 2/15/23
AG
If we win tonight I feel pretty confident about us being in.

We should beat ole miss and that would get us to the 12, and I really don't think we go 0-4 vs Mizzou, Tennessee, MSU, and Bama.
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agswin1988
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11:07a, 2/15/23
AG
our defense is good enough that we should be in every game from here on out. Trust the defense guys.
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agswin1988
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11:08a, 2/15/23
AG
when we have fresh legs I will put our defense up against almost any team in the country
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Method Man
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11:10a, 2/15/23
It's all about if people can hit 3s or not
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bobinator
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In reply to agswin1988 • 11:11a, 2/15/23
AG
Our offense is better than our defense.
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t - cam
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In reply to bobinator • 11:43a, 2/15/23
AG
bobinator said:
Our offense is better than our defense.


Turns out we are pretty damn good all around. We are pretty easily the 2nd best offense in the conference since league play began which is pretty amazing considering our tendency to rely on defense most of the last 20 years.
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bobinator
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In reply to t - cam • 11:46a, 2/15/23
AG
If you look at Torvik's rankings since 1/1, we're ninth in offensive efficiency and 16th defensively, it really is pretty wild, especially because we go about it in a pretty weird way on offense.

We're actually third overall since January 1st, which is also crazy. Since non-con ended, we're one of the best teams in the country.
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Topher17
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In reply to bobinator • 12:19p, 2/15/23
AG
Yeah, it is a pretty common misconception that our D is elite level and the offense is an issue. They've played well at times after Christmas, but we are still 70th on Kenpom, compared to 20th on offense. That defensive number gets heavily dragged down by those early season performances, but our offense has actually been pretty consistently better.

Like you said, we are elite of elite on Torvik after Christmas. I'm not totally sure I understand what he factors in that KP doesn't, but even for the full season his model loves us a lot more than any others out there.
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bobinator
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In reply to Topher17 • 12:31p, 2/15/23
AG
I do think you could maybe argue that our style of defense has a sort of cumulative effect on the game that isn't in the numbers. It's chaotic, and it makes teams play chaotically, and a lot of times that gets them gassed a bit which probably leads to them fouling more and not being fundamentally sound on their rebounding. We also force quite a few turnovers which lead to offense.
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Topher17
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In reply to bobinator • 12:36p, 2/15/23
AG
That's a good point. We are heavily reliant on making other teams play at our pace.
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HossAg
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12:45p, 2/15/23
AG
It's a common theme for opposing fans to rant about how they're playing their worst game of the season against us that night. I think we definitely force a chaotic style that makes teams get away from what they're comfortable with.
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Adam87inSA
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In reply to Method Man • 12:51p, 2/15/23
AG
Method Man said:
It's all about if people can hit 3s or not
Bingo.

A team that gets hot from trey has a great chance of beating us.
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Onionman
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12:57p, 2/15/23
Bubble watch???

I thought I accidently clicked on the Baseball thread.

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bobinator
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In reply to Adam87inSA • 1:00p, 2/15/23
AG
Adam87inSA said:
Bingo.

A team that gets hot from trey has a great chance of beating us.
This is true of basically everyone though and I think it's the wrong way to look at it.

Where we have trouble defensively is teams that can space the floor and move the ball quickly. If they don't panic, and they can move us around with quick passes, then they're going to get open threes, and thus they're more likely to be "hot from three." So it's a symptom, not a cause. The cause is the floor spacing.

Most teams just aren't that good at it these days, and even ones that are it's hard to stay mentally sharp for 40 minutes. The same way that the old Syracuse 2-3 matchup zone used to mentally wear on people, I think our defense does the same.
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Topher17
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In reply to bobinator • 1:04p, 2/15/23
AG
I do wish we were more multiple at times with our defenses though. When we run into a team that does space the floor and pass quickly, we haven't really shown much ability to adjust and play a different style. I think we have the guys to be able to do a lot of different things too.

Throwing different looks at a team that they maybe haven't fully prepared for is just another way to get a team out of their rhythm. It then may take them a second to adjust if you do go back to our traditional no-middle style.
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Adam87inSA
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In reply to bobinator • 1:49p, 2/15/23
AG
Yeah but we've have games (especially in Reed) where the opponent spaces the floor, makes those crisp passes to the wide open shooter spotted up for trey, and they STILL clang them.

Sometimes the Ags' defensive ability to create chaos causes rushed threes.

Sometimes we're just lucky.
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agswin1988
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In reply to bobinator • 1:57p, 2/15/23
AG
bobinator said:
I do think you could maybe argue that our style of defense has a sort of cumulative effect on the game that isn't in the numbers. It's chaotic, and it makes teams play chaotically, and a lot of times that gets them gassed a bit which probably leads to them fouling more and not being fundamentally sound on their rebounding. We also force quite a few turnovers which lead to offense.
this is my point said better in detail
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agswin1988
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1:59p, 2/15/23
AG
also why I believe that if I were a gambling man, i would take the 25,000 -1 odds or whatever one of the posters stated a week or so ago to win the whole thing. Yes it is a long shot, but I believe our style of play with our depth now, gives us as good a chance as any at hitting the "long ball" here if you will
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BQ_90
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In reply to Method Man • 2:00p, 2/15/23
AG
Method Man said:
They prob pay him like $30K a year like we do Will Johnson.
waste of money on both accounts
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HossAg
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In reply to Adam87inSA • 2:05p, 2/15/23
AG
Also harder to hit 3s consistently when you're gassed.
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NyAggie
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In reply to AgLA06 • 2:15p, 2/15/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
I think just winning 3 remaining easiest games makes this a worry free selection Sunday.

Beat Arky, Mizzou, and Miss St. and anything else is purely a seeding bonus.


Don't forget about ole miss; can't lose that one
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NyAggie
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In reply to bobinator • 2:18p, 2/15/23
AG
bobinator said:
If you look at Torvik's rankings since 1/1, we're ninth in offensive efficiency and 16th defensively, it really is pretty wild, especially because we go about it in a pretty weird way on offense.

We're actually third overall since January 1st, which is also crazy. Since non-con ended, we're one of the best teams in the country.


Yep

Which is why no 2 or 3 seeds will be happy to see us in thei bracket as a 6, 7, 10 or 11

And no 1's want us as an 8/9
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AgEng06
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In reply to NyAggie • 2:21p, 2/15/23
AG
Give us a 10 with Texas as a 2. I'd like to see that matchup.

Edit: I see ESPN actually has that right now. Neat... https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2023-march-madness-men-field-predictions
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AgLA06
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In reply to NyAggie • 2:22p, 2/15/23
AG
NyAggie said:
AgLA06 said:
I think just winning 3 remaining easiest games makes this a worry free selection Sunday.

Beat Arky, Mizzou, and Miss St. and anything else is purely a seeding bonus.


Don't forget about ole miss; can't lose that one
I'm probably wrong, but I believe the three quad 1 games above are more important.
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NyAggie
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In reply to AgLA06 • 2:23p, 2/15/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
NyAggie said:
AgLA06 said:
I think just winning 3 remaining easiest games makes this a worry free selection Sunday.

Beat Arky, Mizzou, and Miss St. and anything else is purely a seeding bonus.


Don't forget about ole miss; can't lose that one
I'm probably wrong, but I believe the three quad 1 games above are more important.


They are if we win them, but if we don't win all 3 then we'll need to avoid the loss at ole miss
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AgLA06
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2:25p, 2/15/23
AG
7 seed or 10 seed would be good.

11 seed would be perfect.
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t - cam
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In reply to NyAggie • 2:26p, 2/15/23
AG
NyAggie said:
AgLA06 said:
NyAggie said:
AgLA06 said:
I think just winning 3 remaining easiest games makes this a worry free selection Sunday.

Beat Arky, Mizzou, and Miss St. and anything else is purely a seeding bonus.


Don't forget about ole miss; can't lose that one
I'm probably wrong, but I believe the three quad 1 games above are more important.


They are if we win them, but if we don't win all 3 then we'll need to avoid the loss at ole miss


Ole miss is the 1 game we absolutely know we need to and should win. That said I think we need them all and with the hardest games at home I'd give us a punchers chance.
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Fairview20
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In reply to AgLA06 • 2:29p, 2/15/23
AG
Depends on if we escape the play in game. I would hate to play an additional game just to get into the first round.
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NyAggie
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In reply to t - cam • 2:30p, 2/15/23
AG
t - cam said:
NyAggie said:
AgLA06 said:
NyAggie said:
AgLA06 said:
I think just winning 3 remaining easiest games makes this a worry free selection Sunday.

Beat Arky, Mizzou, and Miss St. and anything else is purely a seeding bonus.


Don't forget about ole miss; can't lose that one
I'm probably wrong, but I believe the three quad 1 games above are more important.


They are if we win them, but if we don't win all 3 then we'll need to avoid the loss at ole miss


Ole miss is the 1 game we absolutely know we need to and should win. That said I think we need them all and with the hardest games at home I'd give us a punchers chance.


I line our chances at home against ark and tenn, and I give us a realistic though lower probability at home against bama

Road games anyways make me nervous , but we should handle ole miss.

I think At mizzou and at state are going to be very tough games





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zooguy96
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In reply to AgEng06 • 3:09p, 2/15/23
AgEng06 said:
Give us a 10 with Texas as a 2. I'd like to see that matchup.

Edit: I see ESPN actually has that right now. Neat... https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2023-march-madness-men-field-predictions


Yeah, but texas would just lose in the first round, so we wouldn't see them in the 2nd.
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Know Your Enemy
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3:34p, 2/15/23
AG
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