Ervin Burrell said:

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Lunardi's latest update from this morning has us as a 6 seed (but I know he's an Aggie-hating antichrist so take it with a grain of salt).

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Fastest rise ever from "needs to win 13 conference games to be sure to make it in" to a 6 seed.

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Texas A&M is a 100% lock into the tournament. Even if we were to lose the next 3 games in noncompetitive fashion and wash out in the SEC Tournament, it is not even a discussion on Selection Sunday.

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Disagree. Aggies will 100% get a bid assuming they win the remaining games in which they are favored. But if they collapse over the next 3 games and bow out early in the SEC tournament (although I don't this happening by any means), they could easily be snubbed again.

I mean…. He wasn't neccisarily wrong that we needed 13 to be sure we were in. And he isn't neccisarily wrong that we as of now are like a 6/7 seed.

If we had 10 wins right now we would be on the outside looking in. That's what's "fun" about the bubble, there really isn't that much difference between a 6 seed and an NIT team, just a couple wins going your way or not.

We could lose our next 4 and still be in. Even at Ole Miss is not a bad loss and there are enough good wins that we are safe. Losing the next 4 we would still have a NET in the mid to high 30s. Look at a resume like ours compared to UNC, Tech, Utah State. There simply are not enough games for them to pass us.

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We could lose our next 4 and still be in.

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We'll have to agree to disagree. But I hope we won't have to find out if you're right.

We should create a bubble/bracket FAQs list that we can post every year around this time

AggieUSMC said:

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We could lose our next 4 and still be in.

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We'll have to agree to disagree. But I hope we won't have to find out if you're right.

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It really is wild to see the range of opinions that if we win out we are definitely a 2, to if we lose out we are out of the tournament.

These games are important but come on…. It doesn't swing THAT wildly. Mississippi State is prob going to sneak in at 8-10 I'm conference. 13-5 with wins over Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri (x2) and auburn (x2) is good enough just chill.

At this point there are probably at least 5 teams behind us that are also locks and could lose out…

2/25 Update

I'm not a college basketball expert but I can't imagine a world where losing to Ole Miss is "not a bad loss". I guess it depends on which vacuum we are living in. Maybe it wouldn't knock us out of the tournament but the optics would be really bad, imo.

Like you can't lose eight in a row in conference and make the tourney unless you're in the Big 12?

It's a Q2 road game against a team that will likely be celebrating senior night. No shame in losing that game, although it's by far our easiest remaking game

This A&M is playing so well…'losing out' is a remote possibility. After two great months this team is unlikely to suddenly just swerve off the road and face plant like that.

Ole Miss is on the road for example…but hasn't won a game at home since Dec. 17th. That game alone…I would give 90+% chance Ags win.

I'm a little worried about the "interim coach bump" playing a factor vs Ole Miss + senior night, but hopefully the atmosphere will be so dead it won't matter anyway.

Fairview20 said:

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I'm a little worried about the "interim coach bump" playing a factor vs Ole Miss + senior night, but hopefully the atmosphere will be so dead it won't matter anyway.

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They play at home vs a terrible LSU team today and we'll see what life is still there.

Pumpkinhead said:

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Fairview20 said:

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I'm a little worried about the "interim coach bump" playing a factor vs Ole Miss + senior night, but hopefully the atmosphere will be so dead it won't matter anyway.

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They play at home vs a terrible LSU team today and we'll see what life is still there.

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I switched over to watch their game vs State last weekend(Baylor going off against KU was killing me). The atmosphere was pathetic even for the rivalry.

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This A&M is playing so well…'losing out' is a remote possibility. After two great months this team is unlikely to suddenly just swerve off the road and face plant like that.

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You must be new to Aggie sports.

Pokes are in trouble.

Arizona State throws in a 60 footer to beat Arizona in Tucson. They should be in good shape and Arizona is slipping down the seed line.

Hoping the Bubble Watch is published any minute now, its been done for a while.

I have us as #48 which is the last 7 seed.

48. $Texas A&M (26, 21-8, 13-3) The winning streak had to end sometime, I guess. This one ends on the road to a quad 1 opponent playing for their tournament lives and ultimately doesn't hurt much, other than missing a chance to continue to climb up the seed lines and of course, potentially costing the chance at an SEC Championship. In terms of the bubble though? These things happen, we will momentarily slide back a couple of spots, but hang on as the last 7 seed. With just 2 games left, A&M maintains a very firm lock status. @Ole Miss is still a game we absolutely should win against a reeling team, but should Ole Miss win, they will move back into a Quad 2 status, and of course Alabama to end the year, is as of right now projected to be the #1 overall seed. If we lost to Ole Miss we absolutely will fall back a couple of seed lines. A loss to Alabama doesn't hurt. There just aren't enough games left to be in any real danger. On the plus side a win against Ole Miss doesn't really do much, expect to stay a 7 seed. A win over Alabama on the other hand and you can expect a bump up of at least a full seed line. This is why I say in the intro to this article, the realistic seeding possibilities are anywhere from a 6 to a 10 seed. And yes, the conference tournament would potentially afford an opportunity to move up another entire seed line also so MAYBE a 5 seed is still in play by winning the next 5 games but we now need a bit of help to get there. (2/28 @Ole Miss)

A couple of Sunday early afternoon notes:
-Maryland takes care of Northwestern. I have both now as 6 seeds, both catchable by A&M if we can finish strong.

-Illinois loses a bad one to Ohio State and slides down to a 7 seed, i have them 1 spot ahead of A&M still but its close.

-Providence blows out Georgetown to reach lock status. I still have them as an 8 seed, behind A&M but they are close.



Next up:
-Memphis in a close must win gave vs. Cincinnati

-Wisconsin/Michigan feels like close to a must win for both teams (it isn't quite as long as either finishes strong). Wisconsin last 4 in, Michigan Next 4 out. I don't see either as realistically capable of passing A&M but should be a great bubble game. To me it is more likely both teams finish out than both teams finish in so i will be pulling for Michigan to bring that closer to reality. This will actually only be a quad 3 win for Michigan given Wisconsin's NET and with it being in Ann Arbor.

-Later UCLA/Colorado may be a good game but doesn't really have any effect for us. Colorado is out, UCLA is uncatchable. Would be cool to see Colorado pick up a big W and make our loss look not quite so bad.

-Bradley/Drake should be a great game. The winner will enter conference tournament week as a very fringe bubble candidate if the rest of the bubble collapses.

-Rutgers/Penn State - Penn State is in the first 4 out and needs to win 2 out of their last 3 to be in contention. They can't catch A&M. Rutgers is a 9 seed and behind A&M for now so we need to worry more about them.

I can't believe there aren't better mid majors to take this year instead of Wisconsin and Michigan. These teams suck.

Ole Miss is now a must game.

If we lose to Ole Miss, then Bama then our first game of the SECT, we're no lock.

We have to be mentally ready. We clearly weren't in StarkVegas.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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Hoping the Bubble Watch is published any minute now, its been done for a while.

I have us as #48 which is the last 7 seed.

48. $Texas A&M (26, 21-8, 13-3) The winning streak had to end sometime, I guess. This one ends on the road to a quad 1 opponent playing for their tournament lives and ultimately doesn't hurt much, other than missing a chance to continue to climb up the seed lines and of course, potentially costing the chance at an SEC Championship. In terms of the bubble though? These things happen, we will momentarily slide back a couple of spots, but hang on as the last 7 seed. With just 2 games left, A&M maintains a very firm lock status. @Ole Miss is still a game we absolutely should win against a reeling team, but should Ole Miss win, they will move back into a Quad 2 status, and of course Alabama to end the year, is as of right now projected to be the #1 overall seed. If we lost to Ole Miss we absolutely will fall back a couple of seed lines. A loss to Alabama doesn't hurt. There just aren't enough games left to be in any real danger. On the plus side a win against Ole Miss doesn't really do much, expect to stay a 7 seed. A win over Alabama on the other hand and you can expect a bump up of at least a full seed line. This is why I say in the intro to this article, the realistic seeding possibilities are anywhere from a 6 to a 10 seed. And yes, the conference tournament would potentially afford an opportunity to move up another entire seed line also so MAYBE a 5 seed is still in play by winning the next 5 games but we now need a bit of help to get there. (2/28 @Ole Miss)

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Do you mean 28 or 48? #28 is the last 7 seed (7 x 4 = 28)

#48 on Net could be OUT, depending on automatic bids. For example, #49 on KP last year (Miss St) was out.

DukeMu said:

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Ole Miss is now a must game.

If we lose to Ole Miss, then Bama then our first game of the SECT, we're no lock.

We have to be mentally ready. We clearly weren't in StarkVegas.

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I mean we had a pretty good lead in the 2nd half. Think we were fine just had a horrible stretch. It happens

AggieUSMC said:

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This A&M is playing so well…'losing out' is a remote possibility. After two great months this team is unlikely to suddenly just swerve off the road and face plant like that.

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You must be new to Aggie sports.

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DukeMu said:

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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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Hoping the Bubble Watch is published any minute now, its been done for a while.

I have us as #48 which is the last 7 seed.

48. $Texas A&M (26, 21-8, 13-3)

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Do you mean 28 or 48? #28 is the last 7 seed (7 x 4 = 28)

#48 on Net could be OUT, depending on automatic bids. For example, #49 on KP last year (Miss St) was out.

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In his methodology, the 17 1-bid leagues and other potential 1-bid leagues are slotted in first, then the remaining teams are ranked in order, with the last bubble teams being #64-68

DukeMu said:

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Ole Miss is now a must game.

If we lose to Ole Miss, then Bama then our first game of the SECT, we're no lock.

We have to be mentally ready. We clearly weren't in StarkVegas.

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I think we're a lock. Those game's likely drop you to a 10 or 11. I don't think there's a scenario where you are out of the field.

The fact anyone proposes we expand the tournament is asinine when the bubble is comprised of teams like Michigan/Wisconsin. These aren't good basketball teams.

I'd much rather reward a team like Charleston who has at least won damn near 30 games, even if the metrics don't like them as much.

After yesterday's game, I say we probably drop to a 7 or 8 seed in the next bracket. And yes, I agree Ole Miss is a must win game and probably the easiest one remaining this season. Speaking about SEC tourney, I say we need to at least make it to the semis (win at least 1 game) to not be sweating on Sunday. Even if it means losing to UK again, we will still be fine. Although, I would like it better if we took care of business the first game, then somehow sneak past UK to get to play for a conference championship in back to back years. Some teams I want to possibly avoid are Arky, UT, and Bama of course, but the odds of neither of those 3 teams making it all the way are very dim.

Edit: I would say winning these last two basically puts us as a lock in the tourney despite what transpires in the conference tourney.

Topher17 said:

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The fact anyone proposes we expand the tournament is asinine when the bubble is comprised of teams like Michigan/Wisconsin. These aren't good basketball teams.

I'd much rather reward a team like Charleston who has at least won damn near 30 games, even if the metrics don't like them as much.

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It's all about greed from the athletic departments and TV execs that want bigger slices of a bigger pie of money. No one is seriously arguing that expanding to 96 (or 128) is because of an overabundance of good teams.

Just to be clear… you think winning the next 2 makes us basically a lock but not quite 100% certainty? (Wrote this before you edited your post)

Y'all need to chill. Realize that a team like Mississippi state is in the tournament right now. They are 7-9 in the sec.

Unless a team like North Carolina passes us we can't fall out of the tournament. Given UNC just got their first decent win yesterday and only has 1 hard game left… they can't match our resume. We realistically can fall to like a 10….crazy the extremes of some of the dialog here. Yesterday morning I still heard some of y'all saying we are def a 3 seed if we win out.

We are a 6 to a 10 seed. Relax.

Click the links if you are confused. We are the 48th spot in the tournament after accounting for the auto bids. By counting this way it helps those that are not as familiar realize that a last 4 in team is in danger by being #67 instead of being #45 and not understanding why that team is all of a sudden moved to #69 by taking a loss. The last 4 in are teams ~42-46 if you start at #1 and so that's why i count it the way I do. After the auto bids become known those teams all of a sudden are more safe than even a Purdue or Kansas so they are counted as such.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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Click the links if you are confused. We are the 48th spot in the tournament after accounting for the auto bids. By counting this way it helps those that are not as familiar realize that a last 4 in team is in danger by being #67 instead of being #45 and not understanding why that team is all of a sudden moved to #69 by taking a loss. The last 4 in are teams ~42-46 if you start at #1 and so that's why i count it the way I do. After the auto bids become known those teams all of a sudden are more safe than even a Purdue or Kansas so they are counted as such.

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That's not the same as being #48 in ranking.

I'm not confused. I just disagree.

The way we're playing tonight, we're headed toward #48.

The way you're posting tonight, you need to head towards a Walgreens and grab some Vagisil.