Bubble Watch

130,244 Views | 1067 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by SABUILDERAG
aggiebones
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Does home / away matter?
Know Your Enemy
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aggiebones said:

Does home / away matter?
Yes

What Are Quadrant 1, Quadrant 2 wins?

Quote:

Quadrant one wins are those home games vs. teams RPI ranked 1-30, neutral games vs. 1-50, and away games vs. 1-75.

A Quadrant 2 win are those at Home against the RPI 31-75, neutral 51-100, and away victories over the RPI 76-135.
Fairview20
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Yes.

Quad 1:
Home game- team must have a NET of 1-30
Neutral- 1-50
Away- 1-75
TexAg1822
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rsf0626 said:

This team has some really bad losses and some incredible wins. This team is the committees worst nightmare
I agree but I think as long as we can continue to win the ones were supposed to in conference, and take another 2 quad 1 wins to get to 12-6,13-5, my hope is that the committee sees the growth of this team and those embarrassing losses came early and this is a different team (although, you never know with the committee)

Obviously, just keep winning and it'll take care of itself
miller0926
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1/27 NET Resume





Ervin Burrell
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Will a win against Vandy drop our NET simply due to how bad they are?
billydean05
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Not necessarily especially if we trounce them. A close win will not move much one way or another.
Ervin Burrell
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billydean05 said:

Not necessarily especially if we trounce them. A close win will not move much one way or another.
IIRC, under the RPI system margin of victory didn't matter. Does NET take MOV into account?

Also, can somebody tell me why I'm seeing Florida as a bubble team in everybody's analyses? Just looked through their schedule and have no clue why they are being discussed as a possible tourney team at the moment (not complaining though, we have beaten them twice).
HossAg
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Up to 10 points
Fairview20
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The metrics love them and they have a really high SOS. This four game stretch coming up for them will determine if they are legit or not.
miller0926
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Ervin Burrell said:

Will a win against Vandy drop our NET simply due to how bad they are?
Our movement this year, NET ranking the day after each game:

started at 97
Florida W: 92
LSU W: 82
Mizzou W: 74
South Carolina W: 57
Florida W #2: 55
Kentucky L: 53
Auburn W: 43

You make pretty big leaps after blowouts or quality wins. If it's a close game, it may drop a spot or 2.


Ervin Burrell
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HossAg said:

Up to 10 points

Interesting. Thanks.
bobinator
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The NET doesn't directly take MOV into account, but the score is obviously a factor in your offensive and defensive efficiency. It actually did originally take MOV into account, but they removed it in 2020. I believe because with efficiency already part of the formula it was basically accounting for the score twice.
Fanatic15...Drs2B!
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I just looked back at what our NET ranking was prior to playing Tennessee last year in the SECT Championship game - which I believe was our highest NET ranking of the season - and it was 42.

At 43 now, we we have essentially already matched it.

If we continue to play like we have been playing for the past 9 games AND win most of our games (especially if those wins include more Quad 1 opponents) - I think we can expect our NET ranking to easily reach the 20's - putting us in the running for a 6 seed - maybe higher - even before the SECT.

Again - I contend we will not only reach the SECT Finals again but win it all this year - so we will get the autobid anyway - and maybe earn a 4 seed - setting us up for at least a Sweet 16 run!

But, of course, let's just take it one game at a time and BTHO Vanderbilt this Saturday!!!
AgLA06
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Assuming no bad losses, this season appears to come down to 5 game's.

Both Arky games, Auburn, Miss State, and Missouri.
Fanatic15...Drs2B!
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So i take it you are assuming we beat Vanderbilt and Georgia at home and Ol Miss and LSU on the road while we lose to both Tennessee and Alabama at home?

With regard to those 5 games you listed - are you saying that, assuming the results outlined above in our "least challenging and most challenging" of the games we have left (meaning we go 4-2 in those games) that the results of your five critical games will determine whether we finish anywhere from 10-8 (losing all 5) to 15-3 (winning all 5)?

That is certainly one way to look at it.

I prefer to think (and obviously hope) that ALL of the remaining games are winnable - and all will be critical to getting us in position to win the regular season title and assure us a high seed in the NCAAT just in case we fail to reach the finals (like we did last year with a lesser team) and win the SECT for the autobid.
Adam87inSA
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In light of how well the Ags have played in January, the Wofford loss is all the more infuriating. No way that this roster and this coaching staff should ever lose THAT game without a combination of coaches and players mailing it in.

We've been fantastic in SEC play, and that's awesome to see. Just dug ourselves a totally unnecessary hole with that Wofford loss regarding our NET rating.
AgLA06
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Nope. Those are the winnable Q1 games left.

We steel one from Tenn or Bama, great. We win 4 of those 5 and we can essentially stop worrying about if we make the dance and start discussing which seed we'll get.
AgLA06
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Or we can stop talking about it and focus on more important games coming up.
greg.w.h
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Adam87inSA said:

In light of how well the Ags have played in January, the Wofford loss is all the more infuriating. No way that this roster and this coaching staff should ever lose THAT game without a combination of coaches and players mailing it in.

We've been fantastic in SEC play, and that's awesome to see. Just dug ourselves a totally unnecessary hole with that Wofford loss regarding our NET rating.
Stop being angry about things you are unable to control.

Or virtue signaling that you're angry.
miller0926
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West Virginia favored by 4 vs Auburn.
Method Man
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Yikes.
Fairview20
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The lines for tomorrow are interesting.

Per ESPN:
UK -3 vs Kansas
Bama -6 @ OU
TCU -2 @ MSU
Tennessee -8 vs Texas
ColleyvilleAg06
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My bold prediction is that Auburn completely melts down the rest of the way and is at the very least nervous on selection Sunday/will be lucky to get in. This is not last years Auburn team. No matter what it's still a great win for us but I do think it will lose a bit of luster when they finish with 12 losses and somewhere near 9-9 /10-8 in conference .
bobinator
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I don't think they'll do quite that bad. Maybe end up a 7/8 seed.

I do like Kentucky to beat Kansas today.
ColleyvilleAg06
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Such a huge day of basketball ahead for us. Gotta take care of our own business but hopefully the sec can hold their own against the best conference in basketball.

Days like today, if aub can beat WV, if LSU can beat tech, if Miss St can beat TCU, Kentucky can beat Kansas, Mizzou/Iowa state those things matter when a heads up comes into play comparing our resume to an Oklahoma.

I'm somewhat pessimistic the SEC can have a winning record in the games I listed (all lines within 3 pts).
ColleyvilleAg06
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By the way, the bubble watch will be posted and ready to go fairly early tomorrow morning and then weekly on Sunday mornings the next couple of weeks.
bobinator
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Oklahoma is going to beat Alabama today, might as well mentally prepare for it
Fanatic15...Drs2B!
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Thanks! Looking forward to the next and all subsequent renditions.

I'm guessing you might have our Aggies moving up above the cut line and in the field tomorrow should we beat Vanderbilt - depending on what happens to other bubble teams of course...
Method Man
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I too am pessimistic.
ProudAggie98
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Basically every bubble team has a game today

txag72
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Quote:

Per ESPM:
UK -3 vs Kansas
Bama -6 @ OU
TCU -2 @ MSU
Tennessee -8 vs Texas
Someone isn't as pessimistic as this board generally is about the strength of the SEC. The SEC had several top 25 teams until we sarted playing each other.
miller0926
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Fully updated bracket matrix this morning got us in 12 brackets
Proposition Joe
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ProudAggie98 said:

Basically every bubble team has a game today



I know it's written from the standpoint of "next week's bracketology", but saying things like "solidify a #1 seed" in late January is rather silly.

"Solidify a #1 seed for the Vols".... for the next bracketology... "No worse than a #2 seed for the Longhorns"... for the next bracketology.

Tennessee could win today and end up missing the tournament altogether.

ColleyvilleAg06
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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

My bold prediction is that Auburn completely melts down the rest of the way and is at the very least nervous on selection Sunday/will be lucky to get in. This is not last years Auburn team. No matter what it's still a great win for us but I do think it will lose a bit of luster when they finish with 12 losses and somewhere near 9-9 /10-8 in conference .
 
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