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Stock Markets - Swing and Longer Term Trades

162,239 Views | 930 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Bob Knights Paper Hands
Esteban du Plantier
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ClutchCityAg said:

Friend in financial sector turned me on to AIV as long term buy and hold. Was trading at $40/share before getting crushed on Q4 earnings in 2020. Now at $6-7/share with positive momentum.


I think you're seeing price difference due to split on Dec 15. Current chart does not show them ever at $40
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ClutchCityAg
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Esteban du Plantier said:

ClutchCityAg said:

Friend in financial sector turned me on to AIV as long term buy and hold. Was trading at $40/share before getting crushed on Q4 earnings in 2020. Now at $6-7/share with positive momentum.


I think you're seeing price difference due to split on Dec 15. Current chart does not show them ever at $40
Ah yes, you are correct. That part was my added analysis not my friend (oops), I think he still likes it regardless, as do I
Let it ride
flyingaggie12
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Was hoping to get some input/advice on my brokerage holdings below.

For the most part I'm more of a buy-and-hold investor, but I occasionally like to throw in to a penny/meme/crypto stock just for s&g's. (Never more than 2% of my portfolio.)

Am I too heavy on tech? Suggestions?

SWPPX (S&P 500 mutual fund): 54%
QQQ: 10%
GOOGL: 8%
AAPL: 7%
UAL: 6%
LUV: 6%
ROKU: 5%
DIS: 4%
ETHE (Ethereum Trust): 0.6%
Johnny Danger
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Maybe throw in SCHD for some balance. Google it, I love this etf
Diggity
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Was hoping to get some input/advice on my brokerage holdings below.

For the most part I'm more of a buy-and-hold investor, but I occasionally like to throw in to a penny/meme/crypto stock just for s&g's. (Never more than 2% of my portfolio.)

Am I too heavy on tech? Suggestions?

SWPPX (S&P 500 mutual fund): 54%
QQQ: 10%
GOOGL: 8%
AAPL: 7%
UAL: 6%
LUV: 6%
ROKU: 5%
DIS: 4%
ETHE (Ethereum Trust): 0.6%
you're getting a lot of AAPL & GOOGL exposure in those first two picks, so you might not need to have quite so much in the individual stocks.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Counterpoint to the B&I board's favorite small cap - WWR. I thought it most appropriate to post in this thread.

Wes****er has posted plans to process 7,500 tons of graphite annually and then eventually double that https://wes****erresources.net/news-releases/2021/06/22/wes****er-bringing-innovative-graphite-processing-plant-jobs-to-alabama/

They have also discussed prices of refined graphite at $8-$11k per ton https://wes****erresources.net/minerals-portfolio/graphite-market/

Doing the math that's gross revenue of $165,000,000 annually. I doubt mining and processing are at the high end of the margin spectrum, so a good portion of that is costs. Doesn't that limit the high end valuation of the company? With current shares plus the additional shares that have been approved to sell that can make sense near current pricing. However to get to $15 or $45 the p/e ratio looks illogical. Unless I'm missing something or there are other revenue streams?
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AGSmith
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Does anyone have any input on this thread?
TxAG#2011
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59, you big on Fubo? Saw your post in the other thread.
Sully Dog
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FAT SEXY said:

Any of you guys long on $SNDL?
not by choice
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
Sully Dog
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Let's talk $SOFI

SOFI next earnings announcement should be coming next week. Something to look for is how much of their student loans are in deferment. They are a student loan heavy lender and roughly half of the student loans nation wide are currently in deferment.

Quote:

In fact, only a little more than half of federally managed student loans are currently in repayment, according to data from the U.S. Department of Education (DOE).
https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/research/student-loan-debt-and-repayment/


That policy is set to end in Feb. I would expect to see SOFI have a significant increase in revenue coming out of the Q1 2022. Despite the recent run up I think now is still a good time to load up.
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
bmks270
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bmks270 said:

Here are some more ideas for long term holds:

GOOG.... looking at the revenue growth and PE I think GOOG may be undervalued relative to MSFT and AAPL. Just seems like the stock price has lagged tech sector growth. Maybe there is some reason investors are avoiding it (fear of being broken up?). But the revenue growth looks stable.

LLY.... Eli Lily... my friend in the healthcare industry turned me on to this one. They make diabetes testers and insulin. Well, diabetes isn't going away. I think this has potential to continue to be a consistent growth stock. It's performed well over the past few years and in 2020.


TDOC... Teladoc. An obvious choice. The tele-medicine is here to stay. Revenue growth has been huge for Teledoc. I think the trend will continue. The one pitfall is this company still hasn't turned a profit, but it's business has been exploding. The shift to tele-medicine is permanent. Another consideration is a few competitors have entered the space, so there is risk Teledoc gets pushed aside by ZOOM or even the insurances companies rolling out their own tele-medicine platforms.

Other attractive market leaders with stable revenue and growth models are ROKU, NFLX, and ADBE.

As always, do your own research on the income and business models of these companies, but I think all of them are likely to have very stable revenue growth going forward.


Coming back to see how these turned out. Here are the 2021 results from Jan 3 to Dec 28, so basically for the year:

Gains since Jan 4 close:
GOOG +69.5%
LLY +69.6%
TDOC -54.6%

Equally weighted gain if purchased all +28.1%

S&P500 ETF, SPY YTD: 26.7%
S&P500 growth ETF, SPYG YTD: 33.1%

Beating the market isn't easy. I don't own any of these stocks, and haven't ever. Although I do wish I bought google, I felt pretty good about it, opted for MSFT (+54% YTD) and ADBE (+13% YTD) instead.
MRB10
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Posted this on the wrong thread but what are current thoughts on Novavax(NVAX)?

Seeing some positive news re: EUA filings.
Sully Dog
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Sully Dog said:

Let's talk $SOFI

SOFI next earnings announcement should be coming next week. Something to look for is how much of their student loans are in deferment. They are a student loan heavy lender and roughly half of the student loans nation wide are currently in deferment.

Quote:

In fact, only a little more than half of federally managed student loans are currently in repayment, according to data from the U.S. Department of Education (DOE).
https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/research/student-loan-debt-and-repayment/


That policy is set to end in Feb. I would expect to see SOFI have a significant increase in revenue coming out of the Q1 2022. Despite the recent run up I think now is still a good time to load up.
As long as we are calling out our hits and misses. Biden pushed back the repayment date on student loans and so who knows if or when this pays off.

Down 30% since my recommendation. FJB

Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
bmks270
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My other two beginning of the year picks were NFLX (+12.9% YTD) and ROKU (-30.3% YTD).

I'm so heavy in ROKU my combined YTD return is like 1% in my active account. Ouch. But I guess that happens when the price triples. My cost basis is $129, I'll keep holding this stock.
Papa Joe
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S & P 500 biggest losers: (could be big gainers next year?)

PENN -42.5% YTD as of 12/30/21
GPN -37.4
LVS -37
ATVI -27.5%
MKTX -27.5
VTRS -26.8
CTXS -25.2
WYNN -23.9
FIS -22.4
IPGP -22.3
TWTR -19.7
LW -19.6
PYPL -19.2
Papa Joe
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Nasdaq 100 biggest losers:

PTON -75.9% YTD as of 12/30/21
PDD -68.3
ZM -45.4
BIDU -34.4
SPLK -31.3
DOCU -30.7
TCOM -28.7
ATVI -27.7
JD -22.4
MELI -20.5
Bonfire1996
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My biggest bets for next year are:

GS
MS
PYPL
GOOGL
ABBV
FDX
TGT

Just incredible value to be had in these stocks IMO
bmks270
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Papa Joe said:

Nasdaq 100 biggest losers:

PTON -75.9% YTD as of 12/30/21
PDD -68.3
ZM -45.4
BIDU -34.4
SPLK -31.3
DOCU -30.7
TCOM -28.7
ATVI -27.7
JD -22.4
MELI -20.5



ATVI is almost looking like a discount value stock in my opinion.
MRB10
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What are y'all planning on buying if BaylorSpines bloody Feb or March comes to fruition? I'd be interested in getting a running list going here for folks who aren't comfortable playing the short game.

Roku
Nvda
Msft
Luv

These are my strongest convictions right now.
Brian Earl Spilner
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I recently sold my LUV and NVDA, so expect those to rocket now.
CaptnCarl
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There has been quite a bit of market movement lately. I purchased plenty of VFIAX Thursday.

Hoping to have a few days to interpret the big picture, but today is ripe with red. Are any of you doing some bargain shopping this week?
bmks270
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Adobe (ADBE) and Atlassian (TEAM) both green today. Im invested in both of these. Like Microsoft, they don't really have any competition.

Keep an eye on Figma though, it's a rising competitor to some of Adobe's product lineup.
LMCane
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Bonfire1996 said:

My biggest bets for next year are:

GS
MS
PYPL
GOOGL
ABBV
FDX
TGT

Just incredible value to be had in these stocks IMO

have most of those and have been adding the last few weeks
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Let's crowdsource the board's opinion of "end of covid" stocks, particularly ones that might hold up in the current inflationary and rising rates environment. The theoretical assumption here being that general consensus on both sides of the political spectrum would have decided covid protocols should end and we need to get back to normal. Sometimes it's a balance between beaten down stocks and ones with lower debt ratios. For instance airlines seem obvious to me and UAL has the most upside to pre-covid pricing, but it also has more debt issues than many of it's competitors. Hotels, casinos, restaurants, and cruise companies might also be off the cuff targets.

In 2020 most of my best investments were swing trades targeting multiple high upside companies in industries that were beaten down but at least somewhat recovered quickly.
Sully Dog
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IMO the banks are some of the bigger winners in higher rate environments. Though best window there has already passed.

I started purchasing WFC and RF months ago and I'm up 125% on both. Wells Fargo may have room to run because I think the CEO wants to get the dividend back to the $2-3 range

I'm in SOFI too but it hasn't had the same effect.

On the tech side I think the area of cheap startup money is over. It's going to be harder to pick the small cap tech companies so I'm leaning toward megacap blue chip techs GOOG, APPL, AMZN, MSFT etc.


That's my thesis at least we will see if it plays out or not.
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
insulator_king
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I'm long pretty much everything.

So my biggest loser in my HSA account is
$RELY Remitly. Bought at $31, now about $10. Uggh. -$941 so far.
$TDOC killing me as well.

Gainers
$MGK
$VOO

Bottom fishing
$CLOV
$CWH
$TWO
$WWR 27 shares, massive $1.42 profit so far.

I I don't do any day trades, but take a look at some of the stocks they mention in the day trade stocks thread.
JCRiley09
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BS. No one has profit in WWR
insulator_king
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JCRiley09 said:

BS. No one has profit in WWR
You're just jealous!
I've got $1.80 total profit on my 10 shares $CLOV too.

More than makes up for this one, right. [In my IRA]

TDOC
TELADOC HEALTH INC
(FIFO)
Lot details
12.0000

cost-$2,037.03
value-$848.88
-$1,188.15

loss= -$1,188.15
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Is this from selling covered calls, selling all or a portion when the prices go up and buying shares back when they drop, or was your entry just lower price?
mazag08
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I've got a new trade I'm looking to initiate this coming week.

DEO (Diego Spirits)

Sitting at $202 right now. I've got the next move going to $245 range. And since it's a little rich for me, I'm eyeing the July $230 calls which closed out Friday at $2.25. I expect a small retrace early in the week and for these to drop below $2.00. If so, I'll be grabbing 5-10. Goal is to sell 60% of them once the value gets me to net free. Then let the rest ride for max gain which should be in the $10-$15 range per contract. My timeline is based on the trajectory of previous moves it's made within this same cycle. As always, I could be VERY wrong in timing. That's why it's important to go net free. The more contracts you buy up front, the quicker and more frequently you can sell chunks off to get yourself net free.

Charismatic Megafauna
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Nice goalposts there on 11/10 and 2/15...

October 240/280 spreads are 2.2ish
insulator_king
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Is this from selling covered calls, selling all or a portion when the prices go up and buying shares back when they drop, or was your entry just lower price?
I'm unclear on what you are asking about $CLOV or $TDOC.

On TDOC I've LOST ~70%, but I will hold on since it is in a tax deferred account. Just trying to grin and bear it.

I don't do any options at all, much too small account.

On CLOV & WWR, I bought at really low prices.
 
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