well you get a one minute assessment.

I can chime in on the telemedicine from industry side. I'm in the outpatient side of healthcare and while it has been helpful during the shut downs , the problem is a lot of specialities require diagnostic tests before making their diagnosis (at least in the fields I work in) .

There is a small population where the telemedicine is helpful to know if someone should come in but industry is not lobbying for wide spread adoption. Physicians and health systems will fight it and I don't see the telemedicine providers companies having near the lobbying powers to get mandatory adoption.

The payers (insurers) ive talked to haven't really gotten too excited over it because eventually the patient ends up in an office later down the road so they're essentially reimbursing for multiple visits .

Maybe in general medicine it's more useful but the surgical side has used it only as a stop gap from the shut downs . Some offices will keep it up for their rural patient bases

My input from experience for what it's worth.

$TDOC looks poised for a move to $250. Am I wrong?

Very much so. That looks like a classic accumulation to the recent lows. Lots of buying in that dip. At least 235 but maybe even break 250 to ath's

Nice spot.

bmks270 said:

---

Great insight, that's why this thread exists.

---

+1. Interesting conversation, guys.

Roku is down about 5% over the last week, and they are apparently in final negotiations with acquiring Quibi. Seems like a good opportunity to get in some more.

Champ Bailey said:

---

Rocky is down about 5% over the last week, and they are apparently in final negotiations with acquiring Quibi. Seems like a good opportunity to get in some more.

---

Champ - be very careful about your entry price here. I don't know the specifics of this potential merger, but empirical evidence shows that the acquirer's stock suffers in the short term, while the target's price increases (as there's usually a premium paid over pre-announcement target stock price). The two exceptions I can think of are if the deal is immediately accretive to the acquirer's EPS, or if there is widespread enthusiasm about synergies resulting from the combination. Both of these situations are RARE!

Do a bit of research on the impact of acquisitions on share prices - history would tell you to wait for an inevitable near-term pullback in the shares of the acquirer before accumulating.

Of course, your mileage may vary - happy investing!

bmks270 said:

---

third coast.. said:

---

Telemedicine is how all these quack hairloss and ed places you see commercials for make all their money.

---

Is it? Is your thesis they don't have lasting power? How should we take that into consideration?

---

Doesn't seem like a good outcome considering the value proposition. Will stay away from those places in the future.

I bleed maroon said:

---

Champ Bailey said:

---

Rocky is down about 5% over the last week, and they are apparently in final negotiations with acquiring Quibi. Seems like a good opportunity to get in some more.

---

Champ - be very careful about your entry price here. I don't know the specifics of this potential merger, but empirical evidence shows that the acquirer's stock suffers in the short term, while the target's price increases (as there's usually a premium paid over pre-announcement target stock price). The two exceptions I can think of are if the deal is immediately accretive to the acquirer's EPS, or if there is widespread enthusiasm about synergies resulting from the combination. Both of these situations are RARE!

Do a bit of research on the impact of acquisitions on share prices - history would tell you to wait for an inevitable near-term pullback in the shares of the acquirer before accumulating.

Of course, your mileage may vary - happy investing!

---

Good to know, thanks for the tip.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

---

$TDOC looks poised for a move to $250. Am I wrong?

---

I dig it, just picked up jan15 230/250 spreads for .7 each

Michael Berry tweets he is short TSLA

ROKU up 15% the past two days on news year over year streaming hours rose 55%.
Subscribers now over 50 million.

With shift away from movie theaters from COVID, it's good for ROKU.

NIO news including partnership with NVDA:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/01/09/2155851/0/en/NIO-Partners-with-NVIDIA-to-Develop-a-New-Generation-of-Automated-Driving-Electric-Vehicles.html

https://wccftech.com/nio-day-2020-goes-live-et7-sedan-150-kwh-solid-state-battery-nio-autonomous-driving-and-new-battery-swap-stations-revealed/

I think Electric Vehicles are in a bubble. I'd be cautious and manage exposure to the EV stocks. The EV only stocks are way over valued, up 1,000% and 2,000% with market caps larger than auto makers who have an order of magnitude more sales volume. There was like 400 new Electric Vehicle startups the last two years.

Just look at this page of 64 EV startups. If you combine their market caps it's just absurd. There just aren't enough vehicle sales or demand for all of them to grow into their valuations even if all new car sales were EVs.

https://www.energystartups.org/top/electric-cars/

Explosion in new startups is a sign of a bubble.


And GM, Volkswagen, and other big players are shifting to EVs, they will absorb the EV demand that these EV start ups are hoping to capture.

GM with new battery tech and self driving features and also looking to license it to other companies.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/business/gm-electric-car-battery-400-miles-of-range/index.html

There is a framing effect in behavioral science/ persuasion that is evident in the EV startup frenzy. It's that a specific description causes people to overestimate likelihood. People are more likely to feel the need for terrorism insurance than general catastrophe insurance even if general catastrophe includes terrorism.

Selling the promise of and "Electric Vehicle" company is more appealing than "Automaker", even though automaker includes EVs. I think that's what's driving the EV valuations.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2020/11/24/ev-share-frenzy-continues-but-only-for-new-makers-not-legacy-brands/?sh=606916d72bbe

Just warning that there is evidence of a big EV bubble right now. The likelihood of EV companies growing into their current valuations relative to long established manufactures is low. The stock prices might never collapse, they may go up another 1,000%, but I think an EV bubble burst or maybe a slow deflation is coming in the next decade.

If you feel confident in the fundamentals of an investment, by all means invest. I just want investors to vigilant for for signs of slowing or reversing momentum and don't be over exposed as there are a lot of red flags appearing in the EV sector.

Some good points in there that I concur with. This is a buy and hold recommendations thread, so the commentary may be better on an EV thread, but in any case, some thoughts:

1) I too believe the EV market overall is overheated, and there are some absolute losers in the mix. I like to place contrarian bets at times, and even if this isn't a pure bubble, IMHO there is room for a significant shakeout or correction.

2) My problem with betting against EVs is separating the winners from the losers. So, if I were betting against the sector, I'd probably buy puts on an EV ETF, as I have much less than perfect knowledge about the individual companies. However, there don't appear to be any pure-play EV ETFs. I have found DRIV, HAIL, and IDRV, but DRIV, for example, has less than 3% of its' value in TSLA. It's top two holdings are AAPL, and NVDA, hardly known for over-reliance on EVs.

3) I think TSLA has such a great head start that it would be tough to bet against the company, even if you bet against the stock. I "think" Rivian will be a survivor, and I can't bring myself to bet against NIO, as the China factor clouds their true condition and potential.

4) A few months ago, I bought puts on NKLA and WKHS. Both were "right idea, wrong time" bets. The principal challenge is that the options implied volatility gooses premium so high that it's tough to buy longer expirations like I usually prefer.

5) I am generally risk-averse enough that I won't place a pure short sell on a stock (unlimited downside doesn't agree with me), so I'm stuck with options.

If anyone knows of a pure play ETF I can short, let me know.

59, last month you mentioned Amazon as the one you were looking at to make a similar style move as the previous trades you had done. I feel Elon passing Bezos and the stock being stagnant for months has probably annoyed him enough to finally split the stock.

This is starting to seem like one of those no brainers from earlier this year and if you still feel the technicals are lining up for a move.

You mind describing exactly what the move is?

Since premiums are high and timing is really unknown, I've avoided buying calls for AMZN but did recently buy shares. Weekly credit spreads or butterflies might also be good options if you want to go that route. I will say the recent political stance AMZN has taken adds more downside risk than I would have thought a week ago.

Champ Bailey said:

---

You mind describing exactly what the move is?

---

Number go up a lot

Disagree. Amazon's biggest threat is antitrust and now that they've demonstrated to be a weapon for the dems I don't think they will go after them.

TxAG#2011 said:

---

Champ Bailey said:

---

You mind describing exactly what the move is?

---

Number go up a lot

---

My bad, thought you meant the word move as a specific strategy to buy it, not just the price going up.

TxAG#2011 said:

---

Disagree. Amazon's biggest threat is antitrust and now that they've demonstrated to be a weapon for the dems I don't think they will go after them.

---

As far as antitrust, I don't even see that being a big risk. AMZN is the 800 lb. gorilla in two spaces, at least (AWS and eCommerce), and even if the drastic step of a breakup occurs, I think shareholder value would still be preserved (it might even be more valuable as separate companies?).

It's an ongoing part of my portfolio, no doubt.

Agreed. I also agree with those saying it's likely most conservatives will continue valuing returns over politics. That said, if they do start having a downturn it will be easier for folks to root against them than a week ago. A little risk of big medium term downside now is bigger than the almost no risk of big medium term downside I thought a week ago.

bmks270 said:

---

Two stocks mentioned on Jan. 2 above with big moves:

ROKU up about 18% since Wednesday on new streaming and user numbers.

Eli Lilly (LLY) popped 11% today on trials of Alzheimer's treatment.



https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/eli-lilly-says-its-alzheimers-drug-slows-clinical-decline-in-mid-stage-trial.html

---

Thanks for the news! Good news - I have positions in both of these! Bad news - my ROKU position is long put options.

Any long term ETFs for clean energy given the new progressive administration?

ICLN

bmks270 said:

---

Other attractive market leaders with stable revenue and growth models are ROKU, NFLX, and ADBE.

As always, do your own research on the income and business models of these companies, but I think all of them are likely to have very stable revenue growth going forward.

---

Netflix up 13% this morning on some Q4 numbers. No more need for debt, and plans to begin share buy backs.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netflix-results-idUSKBN29O2KB

Also, 45 new movies and shows coming in February, so expect good Q1 numbers.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/netflix-is-releasing-45-new-original-movies-and-series-in-february-e2-80-93-here-e2-80-99s-the-full-list/ar-BB1cVHUL

Still going with a strategy in my growth account of holding TQQQ long. I expect less top end growth with a Biden administration, but I also see more global stability. Within a 3x daily nasdaq etf that should lead to more sizable gains just due to

tarletontexan said:

---

Still going with a strategy in my growth account of holding TQQQ long. I expect less top end growth with a Biden administration, but I also see more global stability. Within a 3x daily nasdaq etf that should lead to more sizable gains just due to

---

I'm personally not a fan of holding leveraged ETFs long term due to the decay that eventually occurs.

The decay really becomes a factor if the underlying index is range bound for a prolonged period. In a bull market the thing rips and decay is not an issue since the 3X gains will still far outpace the underlying index even if you factor in decay. Gotta respect that leverage though...it will be a killer in a bear market.

Of course. Things turn bear then pull out. Cash is a position.

If you had to pick four stocks to invest 100% of your equity holdings in, with the following caveats, what do you pick?

A) No OTC stocks
B) No mutual funds, index funds, or etfs
C) You cannot sell for two years

My 4 picks would be Roku, Netflix, Microsoft, Adobe.