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Stock Markets - Swing and Longer Term Trades

162,411 Views | 930 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Bob Knights Paper Hands
59 South
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AG
Long overdue and finally here by popular demand, let's use this as a slower paced complementary thread to the iconic Stock Markets thread that is more focused on shorter term trading and intraday moves. Kudos to the legendary oldarmy1 for that thread.

I'll start with my best guess at some general ground rules, and we'll see where this goes:

  • Post swing trades, medium, and long term holds in equities, ETFs and even options (try to limit options talk to longer term holds a few weeks+ out or leaps).
  • Post your watch list for above type trades and solicit feedback.
  • Post when you enter or exit something and ideally why you are doing what you're doing. Charts are encouraged.
  • Limit the back and forth chat type discussions and things that are effecting the hour to hour or even day to day fluctuations.

I'll start by posting a couple of cheat sheets that I always keep in mind and then post my current holds and watchlist.





59 South
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AG
Here's my current longs and what I'm eyeing. Please note these are mostly multi-month or even multi-year holds:

Current holds:
  • AMZN - if you own it, just hold it. It's going to 3000+. I finally gave in a couple of years ago and loaded up under 1600. It has broken the consolidation phase and is off. I'm not fighting it and could very well hold for another decade+.
  • JD - I'm still eyeing 65 soon for a likely fully out exit or at least half+. Needs to get back over 60 and not have a close under 57. If it does, I'd probably take that and run. It could keep going, but I'd then look to buy back under 50. Needs to cool off but could also keep this parabolic trend going for longer. I'm too exposed to China so need an excuse to lower exposure and 90% gains is good enough to smile and walk away.
  • SQ - I had planned to sell around 90-100, but I've decided to just let it run. With a macro tail wind, this thing could go to 200+. This breakout over 100 after the 18+ month consolidation is mega bullish. Look at 2017-2018 to see what it is capable of. It just needs to hold over 100 although a back test of it is almost certain. I won't be surprised to see it run to 120 or so and then pull back to test 100 before taking off. Who knows though... I'm not too concerned at watching it day to day UNLESS it gets and stays back below 100.
  • ROKU - well known here about the potential. Holding for 250-300 to sell all and then look for 120-150 pullback to buy it back. Crazy huh? But it just loves to triple and then halve. The big boys have caught onto this and are manipulating it so I'm just going to go with that until it stops repeating.
  • NIO - What a ride. I think 8.75-9.50 may be a good area to start limiting some exposure likely with some 'net free' selling combined with covered calls out a few weeks or so. It could go way higher though. Potential to 25-30 in the next year or two. High risk so proceed accordingly.
Watchlist:
  • AMD - I'm probably going to buy this today or later this week in the mid 50s. Not looking for a perfect entry. Nice cup and handle with handle box clear as day between lower and upper 50s. Any close 60+, and it's off with potential leg up to 100. 50 is the line in the sand though. Could go sideways longer so I'm avoiding options on it.
  • WKHS - Small cap so being cautious. It's been on a tear lately. I'd be more active trading it. Pullback to 3.75-4.25 range at the moment would be an entry worth considering. From there it could easily get to 10-12 before slowing down.
Swollen Thumb
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AG
I'm in. Thanks for getting this thread started.
WGann3
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AG
I lurk on the famous Stock Markets thread quite a bit, but this is going to be way more my pace so I really appreciate you making this. Fascinated by what goes on in the main thread and I'll continue to monitor it but I'll be very much looking forward to what develops here.
wmitchell
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AG
Agreed. I just steal ideas - I am relatively new to this so I don't know what I don't know (which is alot).

The things I am in right now:
VLO
RVLV
NIO

VLO is a personal play and likely longer term (although I may sell some off when it hits $70+ again).

RVLV and NIO came from suggestions on here. Riding NIO to 8.50+ then likely hopping off. I was late to the game on NIO but still see good profits coming!

All this is outside of my 401k and long term investments for retirement.
MAS444
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AG
Thanks for starting this!
Tumble Weed
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*Software Developer, not a financial expert*

Right now 10% cash in the account. Usually keep 0.

In order of market value in my account.
AAPL 25% of my account
FB 10%
INTC 9%
BABA
JPM
AMTD
BAC
CFG
HSBC
SYF
C

Leveraged index funds that I own that I would not buy again. I will sell these when they go positive.
TQQQ
UPRO
UDOW

My watchlist is much longer and based on my custom algorithm so I wont post that right now.

If my formula works over this next year then I will share it.
WGann3
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AG
Haha, I'm right there with you. I'm fairly new to this but I've learned a ton just from reading here. Single income household with a 2.5 year old and a 1 month old so the play money is scarce right now. I'm allocating IRA money at this point. I'm mainly taking the ETF route so I'm only invested in VOO at this point and plan on keeping that at least half my portfolio, but am looking at adding some positions.

ETFs I'm Interested In
QQQ
WCLD
SKYY
BETZ
BOTZ

Stocks I'm Eyeing
NKE
AMD (Edit, Added 6/23)
DIS


IPO I'm Keeping an Eye On
Snowflake
TheBiggerEvent
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AG
In to follow
Whitehouse Road
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AG
I've learned a lot from the other thread. This should be a great addition.

I am pretty heavy on passively managed ETFs in my Roth, about 50% is in VOO.

I have a small cash account I am using to learn with. I was able to scoop up HD and MSFT one week from the bottom in March, which has been amazing.

I also bought some Roku each of the last two weeks and I am looking hard at AMD.
Bulldog73
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AG
Following. I have a Robinhood account that only has a little bit of cash in right now, but it's fun to see the ups and downs.
KT 90
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AG
If you have a smaller account, VOO may be expensive ($289). SPYG has many of the same holdings (Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google) and a lower cost entry point ($45).



AgOutsideAustin
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AG
Current long term holds - VTI
Watchlist - VTI

Just keeping it simple
PA24
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AG
Thank you for starting this thread...mucho needed.

Amazon is a good long buy. I consider the best out there, someone please counter?


Every few days I go onto my Ameritrade stock and look at the recommended buys for each sector.
Consumer stable, energy, financials, etc.

Steady growth, not exciting but not depressing is what I am seeing.

I also like REIT as a hedge against inflation.





Swollen Thumb
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AG
I have been buying mainly tech growth stocks, looking at the Cloud/Edge, WFH trends like a lot of folks. Current holdings in that space (entry price -rounded):

ZM(114), ROKU(109), NET(30), FSLY(50)

Watching: TDOC, WDAY, DOCU


Others that I'm holding from recs on the Stock Market thread:

AYX(146), FEAC(10), RUBI(5), MOMO(19), RVLV(16), TSN(64)


Currently up overall a touch over 20% over the past 2 months or so.

Looking at most of these as longer term holds, but interested to hear any thoughts on exits, particularly for those that have made runs recently (ZM, FSLY)
Carlo4
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AG
DRIP - been in this since the low 4s. I believe oil closed that massive gap this morning that it opened up on the way down to negative territory. Seen quite a few Elliot Wave guys talk about oil having their next move down to the teens. Figure it's worth parking 100 shares in for now and wait.

CCL - seems to have support in this area, so i've bought in to go long here. I'll put in a 3% stop loss from here, though.

SLV - hedge against what's coming. Bought back in late March around 13.50 a share. Owned physical silver back in 2008-2011 and got super lucky selling it on the bubble breaking weekend back in the 40s price range. Will plan on duplicating that in the coming years.



Swollen Thumb
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AG
You mention REITs. I've been holding off on those to see what happens. Similar to airlines, hospitality, (travel)etc. I think there is a lot of value in those areas, just a little more uncertainty. So mainly watching to find a good time to enter.

I like LUV and LVS at some point as long-term holds, but unsure if the pain is over for those so have held off for now.
PA24
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AG
Wkhs is on a tear op
PA24
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AG
Swollen Thumb said:

You mention REITs. I've been holding off on those to see what happens. Similar to airlines, hospitality, (travel)etc. I think there is a lot of value in those areas, just a little more uncertainty. So mainly watching to find a good time to enter.

I like LUV and LVS at some point as long-term holds, but unsure if the pain is over for those so have held off for now.
STAG is down today and Ameritrade is recommending a buy...something to look at (REIT)

LUV is my airline of choice

Bought some AMD today and more Amazon.

Amazon now over 60% of my account....
TxAG#2011
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I've seen a lot people posting the market cycle chart with respect to Tesla but I am just not seeing it. They're a long term hold of mine and they are just getting started.
Whitehouse Road
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AG
I pulled the trigger on some AMD as well. Tried to post the chart with the cup and handle 59 mentions, but I'm still a rookie.
Talon2DSO
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AG
My long term ETF holds are:

PSR
ESGE
EFG
EFV
SPAB
BIL
SPBO
SPMD
SPSM
LGLV
VOO

I'm sitting on a little cash ($3,000) waiting on the next pull back before jumping in. Sold JD, NIO a couple weeks ago.
59 South
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AG
Ubitag said:

Wkhs is on a tear op
No kidding. I hope I didn't miss it. These small caps are harder to read on the technicals. That said, I like it when it cools off and gives us a 50% retracement (OA's Model T). If today was a blowoff top, that's about $5 (halfway between 2.50 ish and 7.50 ish). So anything under $5 may be a good entry especially if it goes down and touches the 21 day EMA.

Mister Cooper
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AG
Current Long Term ETF's:
QQQ- bought in early April and has been on a tear ever since. Definitely one to monitor over time
BETZ- once sports come back, this should be a keeper for everyone

Current Long Term Stocks:
MSFT- slowly keep buying more, has been a whale for my account
XOM- bought when the stock went below $35, definitely a bet on oil but still a good position IMO
LUV- like someone mentioned earlier, might not be out of the woods yet but still a solid position to have
DKNG- bought on their IPO, has been a rocket this year even with little sports action

Potential Stocks/ETFs:
Amazon, just don't have the $$$ to pull the trigger yet
VTI
JNJ/PG- potential baby boom come early 2021??
59 South
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AG
I bought AMD earlier today too. I didn't nail it but got darn close. That was an easy technical - I'll post some charts when I have some 'free' time.

I had an alert set for going under $54. I ended up getting market fills shortly after in 2 different accounts at 54.06 and 54.21. Nothing like fumbling around on the Fidelity app trying to buy in different accounts when you think something is about to take off or dump.

I may very well double up if/when it clears and holds 56.50.
Swollen Thumb
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AG
What is driving the interest in AMD? Is it purely technical as far as presenting a good entry point?
WGann3
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AG
All this AMD love here and buys today... FOMO hitting hard, I've been eyeing it for a while. Not really sure what's holding me back since it would be in my medium-long plans...
59 South
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AG
I'm getting close to my limit of big positions in individual stocks now. I have loads in S&P index funds or ETFs and don't really pay attention to those. I'm at the point in life (late 30s) where I'm old enough to have a nice nest egg going but also have 15-20 years to retirement. So these trades are spread across 401K brokerage link, Roth IRA and taxable brokerage accounts. I use Fidelity for all now after dabbling with Robinhood and Interactive Brokers.

I figure I should post my entries (rounded) from up above just for context so nobody goes off and enters them now. Most are on a tear and aren't really there anymore for entry. Longest hold is a little over 2 years (AMZN).

Please don't take this as a hindsight humble brag. Most were OA recs, and entries were not nailed. I've also had some losers that I've sold out of for losses over the past couple of years (notably RRTS and DBX).

AMZN - 1600
JD - 34
SQ - 63
ROKU - 45
NIO - 4.66 (80%) & 7.75 (20%) split between 2 accounts. I can sell covered calls on the 20%.
AMD - 54 (and there she blows as I type this...)
59 South
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AG
Swollen Thumb said:

What is driving the interest in AMD? Is it purely technical as far as presenting a good entry point?
Mostly technical plus it's a clear chip leader with great tech, and an awesome trader I follow has recently loaded up in it in the past week. Follow Scott Redler on Twitter if you don't already. Dude is money; simple and down to earth.
Bulldog73
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AG
I do know both major gaming systems coming out later this year will feature AMD parts in addition to other actual factors.
Bulldog73
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AG
I'm extremely novice at all of this, but one feature I've found with Robinhood is that I can now buy partial shares. I don't know that I'll ever have the cash to put forth to buy full shares of Amazon, but I can throw $50 towards it.
Whitehouse Road
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AG
Bulldog73 said:

I'm extremely novice at all of this, but one feature I've found with Robinhood is that I can now buy partial shares. I don't know that I'll ever have the cash to put forth to buy full shares of Amazon, but I can throw $50 towards it.
Fidelity will let you buy partial shares on the mobile app now and when I spoke to them they told me they hope to have it up and going on their website by the end of the year.
Swollen Thumb
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AG
Thanks. I'm looking at it.

So speaking of good twitter follows, etc,, I'd be interested to know if anyone subscribes to a particular service that they have found helpful as far as the type of trading discussed here. Seeking Alpha, Motely Fool etc all have premium subscriptions and I'm sure there are other lower profile services that might be great too. I generally peruse the free content from various sites, but would like to find one or two to subscribe to assuming the premium content has added value in the way of analysis and recs for mid/long-term opportunities. Any recommendations or feedback along these lines would be appreciated.

Would be great to use this thread to compare/contrast some of the ideas/analysis different posters are seeing from various services.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Just wanted to get in on page 1 on this one.
Cartographer
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Same as above. Following.
 
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