Fizban said:
I think this thread will have some historical value in another couple years.
Maybe as soon as next earnings.
Fizban said:
I think this thread will have some historical value in another couple years.
Agsrback12 said:Fizban said:
I think this thread will have some historical value in another couple years.
Maybe as soon as next earnings.
TennAg said:
U.S. revenues down 39% YOY in Q3.
That's beyond bad.
Fizban said:TennAg said:
U.S. revenues down 39% YOY in Q3.
That's beyond bad.
They sold more cars overseas. The quarter was still a record for production and deliveries. It is just that they sent a larger percentage of their cars outside the US.
They have been increasing the lag time for new orders indicating their backlog is growing.
https://electrek.co/2019/10/18/tesla-pushes-model-3-delivery-time-in-us-as-demand-surges-in-other-markets/
bmks270 said:Fizban said:TennAg said:
U.S. revenues down 39% YOY in Q3.
That's beyond bad.
They sold more cars overseas. The quarter was still a record for production and deliveries. It is just that they sent a larger percentage of their cars outside the US.
They have been increasing the lag time for new orders indicating their backlog is growing.
https://electrek.co/2019/10/18/tesla-pushes-model-3-delivery-time-in-us-as-demand-surges-in-other-markets/
It doesn't matter how many they sell when they are selling them at a loss. I'm not convinced they can be profitable year over year.
bmks270 said:Fizban said:TennAg said:
U.S. revenues down 39% YOY in Q3.
That's beyond bad.
They sold more cars overseas. The quarter was still a record for production and deliveries. It is just that they sent a larger percentage of their cars outside the US.
They have been increasing the lag time for new orders indicating their backlog is growing.
https://electrek.co/2019/10/18/tesla-pushes-model-3-delivery-time-in-us-as-demand-surges-in-other-markets/
It doesn't matter how many they sell when they are selling them at a loss. I'm not convinced they can be profitable year over year.
Quote:
Tesla is back on track after a rocky start to the year.
The electric-car maker posted a surprise profit and record deliveries during the third quarter, sending shares surging on Thursday. The gains had Tesla's stock on track for its biggest one-day advance since May 9, 2013, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
"Last night, Tesla delivered a potentially 'game-changing' third quarter with surprise profitability and strong cash flow signaling what could be a new era for Musk," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a note to clients.
"While strong Model 3 deliveries were known and appear to be showing strength into the fourth quarter on the heels of healthy Europe and U.S. demand, the white-knuckle unknown variable from the street was around the bottom line, as Tesla prior to last night had struggled to get out of the red ink."
Tesla earned $143 million, or 78 cents a share, in the third quarter as revenue fell 8 percent from a year ago to $6.3 billion. On an adjusted basis, Tesla earned $1.91 a share, easily beating the 42-cent loss that Wall Street expected. The company lost $2 billion last year, and lost money in both the first and second quarter of this year.
The automaker delivered a record 97,000 vehicles during the quarter and said that it's "highly confident" it'll exceed its target of 360,000 for the year.
ABATTBQ11 said:
Nowhere did that address margins or explain them...
Quote:
Despite reductions in the average selling price (ASP) of Model 3 as global mix stabilizes, our gross margins have strengthened. Additionally, operating expenses are at the lowest level since Model 3 production started. As a result, we returned to GAAP profitability in Q3 while generating positive free cash flow.This was possible by removing substantial cost from our business.
Gordo14 said:
TSLA has made a single quarter profit many times in the past, and the fanboys always extrapolate them to infinite profitability. With all of the EV credits the government gives, it's really easy for TSLA to horde them all and sell them all in a single quarter. In addition, they changed the way they depreciate capex. Also, you always have to be careful to see if they sold excess inventory in a single quarter. And finally, it's hard to tell if they decided to recognize Autopilot revenue all in one quarter because the car can self "drive" around a parking lot. This has happened many times before, and TSLA has never needed to access capital markets again multiple times, right.
Endo Ag said:
Bless you if you can find anyone neutral on Tesla. There are some very vocal Tesla detractors, and as an outsider they seem to have a significant echo chamber going on, and make many negative predictions that don't ever seem to come to reality.
I do know that the cars are fantastic, that I get far more positive reactions and compliments than I ever did in a BMW M3. The majority of the people who have driven my car tell me a Tesla will be their next car, including my wife. The company was cash flow positive by a billion dollars over the past four quarters and has 10x their worst ever quarter results in cash.
I'm still confused by TSLA's report.khkman22 said:
I saw an article a day or so after earnings that had a couple of items that were somewhat questionable when considered together. I think it was basically that their cap ex was cut from previous projections, they dropped the price of some models, part of the profit was a result of reworking a contract with Panasonic, the tax credit goes away for them and not others next year, and maybe one other one-time accounting entry that may have helped them this quarter, but I can't remember for sure.
They say their Gigafactory is ahead of schedule and ready for production, but at the same time cap ex was cut. Seems like cap ex would have been higher if the factory was ahead of schedule. There were no details with the cap ex numbers, so I guess that could have been the decision to not build more dealerships here, but that's just a guess.
Will their demand hit their estimates? Are they truly taking into effect losing the tax credit and how that may further affect their margins and reducing prices even further to try and gain customers? Will the California wildfires have an impact on demand if people think they won't be able to reliably drive their cars if there are continual power outages in the future due to fires?
Maybe they are turning things around, but I wouldn't ever trust Musk. This quarter was so out of nowhere for everyone that I think you have to wait another couple of quarters, at a minimum, to say they really are on track and are going to make it.
ABATTBQ11 said:
Also, "those who have driven your car," is a great example of selection bias and a poor reflection of consumer demand. Tesla has seen a large decrease in yoy US sales, and their current revenues are driven by international sales.
I agree that the US is running out of early adopters (those that will put up with an incomplete product because its novel). So that means Tesla needs to start introducing the features that will push the rest of the market into buying. There is a big segment of people going, 'For 35k I can buy a car with a really nice interior.' So Tesla needs to work on:500,000ags said:ABATTBQ11 said:
Also, "those who have driven your car," is a great example of selection bias and a poor reflection of consumer demand. Tesla has seen a large decrease in yoy US sales, and their current revenues are driven by international sales.
How exactly is that selection bias? That's similar to saying a negative movie review means nothing because of selection bias - they went and saw the movie. In reality, good reviews boost perception and drive incremental sales and negative reviews do the opposite.
I'd buy it more that the decline in US sales is due to the market of "early adopters" declining. There is less low hanging fruit for Tesla to capitalize on.
500,000ags said:ABATTBQ11 said:
Also, "those who have driven your car," is a great example of selection bias and a poor reflection of consumer demand. Tesla has seen a large decrease in yoy US sales, and their current revenues are driven by international sales.
How exactly is that selection bias? That's similar to saying a negative movie review means nothing because of selection bias - they went and saw the movie. In reality, good reviews boost perception and drive incremental sales and negative reviews do the opposite.
I'd buy it more that the decline in US sales is due to the market of "early adopters" declining. There is less low hanging fruit for Tesla to capitalize on.
ABATTBQ11 said:
Their issues with quality control would say otherwise, and the jury is still out on the long term reliability of a Tesla (200k+ miles) not just for the drive train, but the entire vehicle. Suspension, brakes, wheel bearings, electronics, interior finishes, paint, lights, etc. I know my Tacoma or a Camry or Accord will last that long and probably longer. Hell, there are multiple Tundras that have hit the million mile mark and still look pretty new inside and out. There are a lot of brands with proven longevity of every aspect of the vehicle.
Does Tesla? Many of them suffered infotainment screen issues, and continue to, because musk decided that automotive grade screens were overkill and he wanted something really big, which simply wasn't made. They went with the next best thing that meet his size demands and it didn't hold up long. It's those kind of decisions, that will not be apparent for a long time, that would keep me from buying one and raise the question,"Do they make good cars, or do they make good batteries, motors, and software?"
Quote:
Notwithstanding its initial flaws, Tesla owners raved about their cars. This is something of a paradox found repeatedly in the Bloomberg surveymany of those owners who dealt with defects in their new Model 3 gave the electric sedan high overall marks for satisfaction. They gave their highest ratings to its design, performance, and some of the unusual software features that help define Tesla's brand. A nearly unanimous 99.6% of respondents said the Model 3 is a pleasure to drive, the kind of consensus rarely reached by any consumer product.
500,000ags said:
That's selection bias.
you do realize, teslas can use any charger, it's the other cars that cant use the Tesla chargers. Tesla provides you an adaptor when you buy the car that lets you use the other charger types.one MEEN Ag said:I agree that the US is running out of early adopters (those that will put up with an incomplete product because its novel). So that means Tesla needs to start introducing the features that will push the rest of the market into buying. There is a big segment of people going, 'For 35k I can buy a car with a really nice interior.' So Tesla needs to work on:500,000ags said:ABATTBQ11 said:
Also, "those who have driven your car," is a great example of selection bias and a poor reflection of consumer demand. Tesla has seen a large decrease in yoy US sales, and their current revenues are driven by international sales.
How exactly is that selection bias? That's similar to saying a negative movie review means nothing because of selection bias - they went and saw the movie. In reality, good reviews boost perception and drive incremental sales and negative reviews do the opposite.
I'd buy it more that the decline in US sales is due to the market of "early adopters" declining. There is less low hanging fruit for Tesla to capitalize on.
-Better interior finishes
-Better warranty support and customer support
-Better charging station access (including agreeing to a non proprietary standard)
All while dealing with the end of a tax credit and the first rounds of other companies coming out with their electric cars.
At the end of the day the big question is, can Tesla master everything supporting car manufacturing before the other car manufacturers master building an electric car.
I did not know that. I stand corrected on that.Foamcows said:you do realize, teslas can use any charger, it's the other cars that cant use the Tesla chargers. Tesla provides you an adaptor when you buy the car that lets you use the other charger types.one MEEN Ag said:I agree that the US is running out of early adopters (those that will put up with an incomplete product because its novel). So that means Tesla needs to start introducing the features that will push the rest of the market into buying. There is a big segment of people going, 'For 35k I can buy a car with a really nice interior.' So Tesla needs to work on:500,000ags said:ABATTBQ11 said:
Also, "those who have driven your car," is a great example of selection bias and a poor reflection of consumer demand. Tesla has seen a large decrease in yoy US sales, and their current revenues are driven by international sales.
How exactly is that selection bias? That's similar to saying a negative movie review means nothing because of selection bias - they went and saw the movie. In reality, good reviews boost perception and drive incremental sales and negative reviews do the opposite.
I'd buy it more that the decline in US sales is due to the market of "early adopters" declining. There is less low hanging fruit for Tesla to capitalize on.
-Better interior finishes
-Better warranty support and customer support
-Better charging station access (including agreeing to a non proprietary standard)
All while dealing with the end of a tax credit and the first rounds of other companies coming out with their electric cars.
At the end of the day the big question is, can Tesla master everything supporting car manufacturing before the other car manufacturers master building an electric car.
Fizban said:ABATTBQ11 said:
Their issues with quality control would say otherwise, and the jury is still out on the long term reliability of a Tesla (200k+ miles) not just for the drive train, but the entire vehicle. Suspension, brakes, wheel bearings, electronics, interior finishes, paint, lights, etc. I know my Tacoma or a Camry or Accord will last that long and probably longer. Hell, there are multiple Tundras that have hit the million mile mark and still look pretty new inside and out. There are a lot of brands with proven longevity of every aspect of the vehicle.
Does Tesla? Many of them suffered infotainment screen issues, and continue to, because musk decided that automotive grade screens were overkill and he wanted something really big, which simply wasn't made. They went with the next best thing that meet his size demands and it didn't hold up long. It's those kind of decisions, that will not be apparent for a long time, that would keep me from buying one and raise the question,"Do they make good cars, or do they make good batteries, motors, and software?"
This is standard FUD. Tesla is not that new a company at this point. You can find plenty of examples of Teslas with hundreds of thousands of miles on them and most have performed extremely well from a maintenance/reliability standpoint.
Meanwhile Tesla owners almost without exception love their cars.
I remember the first time I picked up an iPhone. I distinctly remember thinking that every other phone I had held up to that point seemed old fashioned in comparison. Driving a Tesla is a similar experience.
On the surface it does the same thing as any other car, just as the iPhone's critics contended when comparing it to Blackberry, but the Tesla is just a better experience.
Take a look at this survey Bloomberg conducted: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/?srnd=graphics-v2
No doubt you will focus on the (mostly minor) defect rate, but scroll down to what the owners actually think.
Essentially every single owner surveyed stated they were "very satisfied" with the Model 3 from a "driving enjoyment" standpoint.Quote:
Notwithstanding its initial flaws, Tesla owners raved about their cars. This is something of a paradox found repeatedly in the Bloomberg surveymany of those owners who dealt with defects in their new Model 3 gave the electric sedan high overall marks for satisfaction. They gave their highest ratings to its design, performance, and some of the unusual software features that help define Tesla's brand. A nearly unanimous 99.6% of respondents said the Model 3 is a pleasure to drive, the kind of consensus rarely reached by any consumer product.
Consider the implications of that. That is a level of satisfaction that BMW would kill to achieve. The exact same owners that reported all those defects love their cars. If you don't have experience driving a Tesla I don't think you can get it.
As one survey respondent put it:
"The car feels like the future, I can never go back."