Twitter discovered that this is the first time Tesla has used the word "entity" instead of customer for a/r. May mean nothing may mean a lot. You never know with them.
TSLA
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Last: 3 yr ago by bmks270
Lots of reports of 1-3 month registration delays. Owners driving with expired temp tags. This is what often happens when dealers are on their last legs, delaying tax submittals and using assets for financing that aren't theirs. We'll see.
Lots of stories all over twitter about issues.
Today, I saw for the first time what appeared to be one of the well known issues in action. I drove by a tsla in downtown on the way home from work that had a tarp over the drivers side window presumably due to the window rolling down issue.
The stock is so strong. Above 360 they can convert debt notes to shares, which has been Musk's goal since the 420 escapade. My gues is that this will all come crashing down one day. But it will be such a catastrophic move that I won't get to play any part of it.
Today, I saw for the first time what appeared to be one of the well known issues in action. I drove by a tsla in downtown on the way home from work that had a tarp over the drivers side window presumably due to the window rolling down issue.
The stock is so strong. Above 360 they can convert debt notes to shares, which has been Musk's goal since the 420 escapade. My gues is that this will all come crashing down one day. But it will be such a catastrophic move that I won't get to play any part of it.
Sure you can have a part in the crash. Just buy all the put options you want to. Looks like June 19, 2019 360 sp puts are about $57. Or get 2020 puts. Ante up!!!
$57? You do realize that means one contract is $5700? Lol. I'm not betting that big. The stock looks incredibly strong right now.
What will 2019 look like?
" SpaceX (SPACE) will lay off about 10% of its 6,000-employee workforce, the Los Angeles Times reports.
The company acknowledged it was making cutbacks, and an employee email sent by President Gwynne Shotwell says the company is offering at least eight weeks' pay and other benefits, according to the report.
Earlier this month the company said it had sold $227M in shares and raised $273M total in equity and other securities, part of a $500M funding round."
Not necessarily Tesla, but as I've said before, you can't trust anything Musk says, or especially, that is "leaked". SpaceX isn't making money. Just like all his companies, it requires continued injections of capital. The question is, for how long can he keep the con up?
I mean, I think it all would have gone up back when SC was going under if he hadn't bailed out his solar company at the expense of the niave Tesla equity holders.
The company acknowledged it was making cutbacks, and an employee email sent by President Gwynne Shotwell says the company is offering at least eight weeks' pay and other benefits, according to the report.
Earlier this month the company said it had sold $227M in shares and raised $273M total in equity and other securities, part of a $500M funding round."
Not necessarily Tesla, but as I've said before, you can't trust anything Musk says, or especially, that is "leaked". SpaceX isn't making money. Just like all his companies, it requires continued injections of capital. The question is, for how long can he keep the con up?
I mean, I think it all would have gone up back when SC was going under if he hadn't bailed out his solar company at the expense of the niave Tesla equity holders.
There is some speculation that it was Musk himself who funded that 227 million. Someone just prior sold the equivalent in Tesla shares. Normally there'd be paperwork but there's a Musk family trust that has been gifted shares and thereby able to delay disclosure.
And yes, everything is Tesla related when it comes to him.
edit: the above should refer to a family non-profit foundation, not a trust, as i wrote.
And yes, everything is Tesla related when it comes to him.
edit: the above should refer to a family non-profit foundation, not a trust, as i wrote.
I'm not even going to bring up the boring company reveal disaster or the fake rocket he just made... I'll keep my focus on the absolute crashing of model 3 demand.
You are lucky TennAg. For just $56 per share you can buy Aug 16, 2019 350 sp puts. Surely your predictions will come true within 7 months. Ante up.
I wouldn't touch anything inside of 2020 myself. Any thoughts on the fundamentals?
7% workforce reduction announced.
The opposite of growth.
The opposite of growth.
TennAg said:
I'm not even going to bring up the boring company reveal disaster or the fake rocket he just made... I'll keep my focus on the absolute crashing of model 3 demand.
It's been my prediction for 2 years now, when the pre-orders are all delivered, demand and shipments will tank. They won't be able to grow demand, and the competition will have fully developed and ready to go electric cars at all price points.
bmks270 said:TennAg said:
I'm not even going to bring up the boring company reveal disaster or the fake rocket he just made... I'll keep my focus on the absolute crashing of model 3 demand.
It's been my prediction for 2 years now, when the pre-orders are all delivered, demand will and shipments will tank. They won't be able to grow demand, and the competition will have fully developed and ready to go electric cars at all price points.
It's already started. There are dozens of locations across the country where (combined)thousands of brand new model 3's are being stashed. Abnormal because Tesla will claim Q1 is down because all inventory is headed overseas and two, because they've always used a "you order, we'll make it" model. Reports are they're meaningfully scaling back production the last 3-4 weeks.
For the fourth quarter, Tesla announced that it made $7.2 billion in revenue and earnings of $1.98 per share (non-GAAP).
They delivered GAAP net income of $139 million during the last 3 months of 2018.
They delivered GAAP net income of $139 million during the last 3 months of 2018.
MoparAg said:
For the fourth quarter, Tesla announced that it made $7.2 billion in revenue and earnings of $1.98 per share (non-GAAP).
They delivered GAAP net income of $139 million during the last 3 months of 2018.
Margins already showing signs of collapsing in 2018 before the loss of regulatory credit and the huge drop in demand for the $60k Model 3 variants. Not a good thing. I expect Tesla to go back to operational cash flow negative in Q1 maybe neutral in Q2 with overpriced Europe sales, and then downhill after that. Theyll lose a ton of cash in convertible bonds over the course of the year ($1.5B in cash will be due in 2019). And somehow they will build a new factory as well as 3 product lines (Remember the Semi is due to built THIS year... somewhere). Capital raise is the only way that's remotely possible.
The margins remained extremely healthy in Q4, better than 20% on the Model 3. (same as Q3)
The only real concern for Q1 is that they will have a bunch of vehicles in transit to Europe and China.
""While the number of Model 3 vehicles produced should increase sequentially in Q1, deliveries in North America during Q1 will be lower than the prior quarter as we start delivering cars in Europe and China for the first time. As a result of the start of Model 3 expansion into Europe and China, deliveries will be lower than production by about 10,000 units due to vehicle transit times to these markets"
The only real concern for Q1 is that they will have a bunch of vehicles in transit to Europe and China.
""While the number of Model 3 vehicles produced should increase sequentially in Q1, deliveries in North America during Q1 will be lower than the prior quarter as we start delivering cars in Europe and China for the first time. As a result of the start of Model 3 expansion into Europe and China, deliveries will be lower than production by about 10,000 units due to vehicle transit times to these markets"
Fizban said:
The margins remained extremely healthy in Q4, better than 20% on the Model 3. (same as Q3)
The only real concern for Q1 is that they will have a bunch of vehicles in transit to Europe and China.
""While the number of Model 3 vehicles produced should increase sequentially in Q1, deliveries in North America during Q1 will be lower than the prior quarter as we start delivering cars in Europe and China for the first time. As a result of the start of Model 3 expansion into Europe and China, deliveries will be lower than production by about 10,000 units due to vehicle transit times to these markets"
1. Those margins aren't real, they are made up. For instance, they expense many repairs as goodwill instead of warranty items. This allows them to then calculate and assign a fraction of warranty reserve for each vehicle which inflates the margin.
2. They have a thousands of concerns for Q1, and they are all parked in dozens of parking lots all over america, not being sold. North American demand is dead, showrooms are empty.
3. Why would delivery of vehicles overseas affect North American deliveries? Separate infrastructure and there is no shortage of 3s already made. They've been cutting production and shifts at Fremont.
Tesla has also been tampering with payables. They are requiring vendors to resubmit invoices to new locations or in new formats which then pushes it out even further while keeping their aging numbers lower. They are pulling every trick in the book, I really think they are about to collapse or at least restructure.
1. Their margins aren't real? Tell their auditor, seriously.
2. They disclose their production and delivery numbers. Their inventory is minuscule compared to traditional automakers. Yes, their US demand has dropped in Q1, as was expected with the partial phaseout of the tax credit. They are compensating by beginning overseas deliveries.
3. Because they can only make Model 3s so quickly. They are not cutting Model 3 production shifts. Tesla is still working to increase Model 3 production.
Fizban said:
1. Their margins aren't real? Tell their auditor, seriously.
2. They disclose their production and delivery numbers. Their inventory is minuscule compared to traditional automakers. Yes, their US demand has dropped in Q1, as was expected with the partial phaseout of the tax credit. They are compensating by beginning overseas deliveries.
3. Because they can only make Model 3s so quickly. They are not cutting Model 3 production shifts. Tesla is still working to increase Model 3 production.
1. No they're not. They play all kinds of games with them including putting credit sales in cogs which can account for a huge percentage of margin. Plus they don't add in r&d, or any sales or service costs.
2. Looks like they took around a 75% haircut in m3 demand this month. Probably fine.
3. They are only shifting overseas because there is no demand here and their channel can't handle anymore cars. Keep in mind this is a company who's always preached against the inventory/dealer model. There are less than a month or two's worth of non-US reservations or orders.
Our 350 puts are in the money and look like they may pay big time soon. Thanks for helping convince me.
It's not too late to buy in. Still a long way to 0.
It's not too late to buy in. Still a long way to 0.
Good luck! I think it's a good opportunity with the right timing. More than that though, I, and I think other posters just don't want anybody to get damaged by what I believe has morphed into a fraudulent company. We'll see how it all shakes out.
Is that Tesla's way of boosting customers resale? Reset the miles? It's fraud for an owner to do and must be some regulatory non-compliance for the OEM to not have an accurate odometer.
This thread is gold!
LCE said:
This thread is gold!
This thread is becoming a pretty decent microcosm of how (later obvious) frauds can happen and how they are allowed to perpetuate. Without people like LCE they would never happen. Thank you for adding that element to make this thread complete.
Read this from the beginning. You have zero clue about investing. I hope you don't do this for a living.
Feel free to give your thesis and what you would do with this stock. So far you haven't added much other than insult those with an alternate viewpoint from yours.
And I don't claim to be any sort of expert, just shooting the bull here on texags. But I do know the word "investing" has nothing to do with this stock either way.
And I don't claim to be any sort of expert, just shooting the bull here on texags. But I do know the word "investing" has nothing to do with this stock either way.
Bought at 30 years ago and sold at 75. In again at 250. Just know you have zero clue about this company. Nothing personal. Just hope others don't think you're an expert on this. Still think it going BK this year as you first stated? Happy investing.
Well spill it. What do I not know? I'm pretty familiar with both side of this trade but I love the discussion. (Not that it's just me on this thread with the same beliefs.)
And yes, I do still believe they will go bankrupt this year. Maybe they'll find a way to push it out if they can raise a few billion but it will be temporary, they are on fumes right now and are technically already insolvent.
Something to keep in mind:
03/2018 - Thread started
11/2018 - "We were single digit weeks away from death earlier this year." Elon Musk
And yes, I do still believe they will go bankrupt this year. Maybe they'll find a way to push it out if they can raise a few billion but it will be temporary, they are on fumes right now and are technically already insolvent.
Something to keep in mind:
03/2018 - Thread started
11/2018 - "We were single digit weeks away from death earlier this year." Elon Musk
It's funny how much Tennag is rooting against Tesla. He must work for VW or GM.
I do have a brother in law who's pretty high up in Ford. But he thinks Tesla is awesome. Go figure.
I'm rooting against Tesla because I think Elon Musk is a fraud. I don't work in the auto industry.1876er said:
It's funny how much Tennag is rooting against Tesla. He must work for VW or GM.
1876er said:
It's funny how much Tennag is rooting against Tesla. He must work for VW or GM.
I mean that's the only reason anybody could want to root against Tesla right. Has nothing to do with the fact the CEO is a narcissist who sells ****ing magic to his fanboys who are willing to believe anything he says is the future and excuse his fraudulent behavior. It definitely couldn't be that at all.
Seriously, all of Elon's half baked ideas that will never come to pass are just embraced without critical thought by his cult following, and that's what's disgusting. He gets all the credit, as a visionary, for things he doesn't achieve. Let's ignore for a minute the #$420 funding secured bull****, the pedo bull****, cyborg dragon bull****, building car carriers bull****, verbal government approval in the northeast to build a hyperloop bull****, fully autonomous cars by 2019 bull****, humans on Mars bu 2019 bull****, electric airplane design bull****, and the 5,000 Model 3s by December 2017 in the Alien dreadnaught bull**** (despite a lot of evidence he was told by his team over a year earlier that was impossible). The hyperloop will never be a thing. Not only did he pull the economic justification completely out of his ass, anybody that knows anything about pressure, thermal expansion, and energy would tell you it's a much dumber, less safe (by orders of magnitude), and still wildly impractical and expensive meglev train at best. His boring company is garbage too. Let's build a subway, but less efficient to further praise my genius! It's so poorly thought out from an actual execution/development perspective beyond the fact it's a ****ty subway simply because the entrance and exits to the system will always be massive bottlenecks. People need to grow up and realize Elon didn't invent the damn tunnel. And if you actually looked into it, you'd realize, everyone else who has built a tunnel has been way smarter about it (multilane tunnels, subways - you know, more efficient tunnels). SpaceX, while still impressive to be fair is overhyped still. They did not invent VTOL. In fact, it was largely discarded as uneconomic, which the jury is still out on, to be fair. But he uses SpaceX as a platform to worship himself by promoting things like Suborbital earth flights which is a ****ing joke. Not only are launches regularly canceled, delayed by days, need mild weather conditions etc... not only do they make way too much noise to enter have in population centers, but it's widely accepted that rocket flight will ever be more than 95%-97% safe. In what world is that ever going to be good enough to compete with airplanes. And don't worry he's got a way to make his rockets carbon neutral through a well known chemical process that isn't economically viable! Throw in whatever date that Elon has promised a Mars base that is completely detached from reality. All of his companies are designed to get people to worship HIM using false promises as his tool. He only has to give you just enough and suddenly literally everything is possible if you believe in Elon Christ.
Then there's the corporate incest between his companies that's never been more apparent than when he bailed out Solar City at the expense of Tesla shareholders ("take my money you visionary"). Autopilot is irresponsible at best - marketing materials suggesting everything is hands free and it's "autopilot". And then a Tesla runs into the back of a firetruck on autopilot and it's "well they should have been more aware". The child submarine was simply a pr grab - if he really thought it was for the kids he really didn't need to tweet about his genius/video from inside the caves/etc. 10 times a day. Solar roof tiles have been great. Only supposed to be mass produced and installed in commercial quantities since 2017. Throw in the Tesla Semi, which is supposed to go into mass production this year - they just deliberately pretend this definitely possible vehicle won't be economically unviable using an energy source 1/10th the energy density of diesel to compete in an industry limited by weight capacity and shipping time (maybe that's why management seems to have forgotten it exists).
Recharging those batteries would be an absolute ****show - especially in cold weather. But it's about to compete with trains and ***** But it did have a lot of hype though, and that's what matters.
Other dumb things:
Pravduh.com - because mob mentality is the solution to things that hurt Elon's poor ego.
This from an article on Doug Fields leaving Tesla.
"spokesperson for Tesla reached out to note that Doug Field was Tesla's chief of vehicle engineering. Elon Musk is the company's chief engineer, followed by Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel. Field was the company's third-most senior engineer"... a bit of a narcissist I'd say.
His "SpaceX Cold propulsion Rocket Thrusterz". If you believe this is anything more than bull****, then you need to look at 1) how much energy it would take to compress the air to a level that it would actually create a force that would be relevant for a car, 2) the thermal effects of decompressing gas, 3) the safety risk of having relevant (high enough pressure) compressed air canisters, 4) the noise created by releasing compressed air, 5) the actual pressure and volume needed simply to accelerate the vehicle let alone over an extended period of time. But maybe this will even allow Tesla's to fly!?!?!?! (Ignore any safety concerns related to that as well).
His naming conventions for anything just reaks of neckbeard cult - falcon anything, bioweapon defense mode, starship, BFR, starship, starman, infinity warranty, alien dreadnaught, etc. Etc.
Anyways, I always hope he loses. He sells hype to the lazy who simply want somebody to worship. I refuse to ignore how much of a narcissist he is. Using sciencey verbage is his shield for bull***** The guy isn't that smart, and clearly doesn't think things through. If that's viewed as admirable, then it really says more about our social media driven culture than anything else.
I have no position in Tesla stock. Despite the fact that they look insolvent still (although who knows how many capital raises the markets will donate to the cause) - it's a crowded position for a reason... which makes it an expensive position.
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