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bmks270
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In reply to exp • 12:52a, 4/3/18
AG
exp said:
bmks270 said:
Tesla's valuation is silly and absurd considering other individual automakers are taking international and US market share from Tesla, do it at a profit, and do it along with the rest of their car lineup that sells an order of magnitude more than Tesla does.



It's not apples to apples.

Other car manufacturers are just that... Car manufacturers. Tesla has the POTENTIAL to become a dominant, fully vertically integrated green energy company whose brand power permeates as much as GE did in the 90s. The potential scope of business for Tesla in 20 years if they can make it puts *car* companies to shame.

I believe in them. Am worried about short term, but less so the long term.


Delusion. The stated mission is to sell electric cars. Not become a green energy company that rivals GE.

Quote:
The Mission of Tesla. Our goal when we created Tesla a decade ago was the same as it is today: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.
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sts7049
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In reply to TennAg • 4:14a, 4/3/18
AG
TennAg said:
exp said:
Everybody's looking to get offended a be a victim. Lighten up. It's a joke.


He also tweeted "everything's better with fire" just after (same day?) his company admitted their autopilot software got one of their customers burnt to a crisp.
not exactly. they admitted it was active, yes.
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TennAg
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In reply to sts7049 • 6:23a, 4/3/18
...active and drove into the concrete exit divider it didn't recognize.

The software is supposed to recognize vehicles and objects and apply the brakes to prevent collisions. In this case it looks like it not only didn't do that but actually likely steered into it due to lane confusion at the split.
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MemorialTXAg
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In reply to exp • 8:03a, 4/3/18
exp said:
bmks270 said:
Tesla's valuation is silly and absurd considering other individual automakers are taking international and US market share from Tesla, do it at a profit, and do it along with the rest of their car lineup that sells an order of magnitude more than Tesla does.



It's not apples to apples.

Other car manufacturers are just that... Car manufacturers. Tesla has the POTENTIAL to become a dominant, fully vertically integrated green energy company whose brand power permeates as much as GE did in the 90s. The potential scope of business for Tesla in 20 years if they can make it puts *car* companies to shame.

I believe in them. Am worried about short term, but less so the long term.


Yeah, mining lithium, cobalt and other commodities with a much more devastating environmental and social footprint then say natural gas is really green.
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FriscoKid
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8:12a, 4/3/18
AG
Hope nobody went short pre-earnings.
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TennAg
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In reply to FriscoKid • 8:36a, 4/3/18
FriscoKid said:
Hope nobody went short pre-earnings.
This was production/sales not earnings. Close review will show significant softening of demand for the S/X yoy. While Tesla loses money on every car, they lose way less on those models so that's not a good sign long term.

The price will continue to spike and drop within any long term trend, as per usual for this stock.
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Gordo14
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In reply to TennAg • 9:32a, 4/3/18
TennAg said:
FriscoKid said:
Hope nobody went short pre-earnings.
This was production/sales not earnings. Close review will show significant softening of demand for the S/X yoy. While Tesla loses money on every car, they lose way less on those models so that's not a good sign long term.

The price will continue to spike and drop within any long term trend, as per usual for this stock.


Seriously, it's a terrible report. 22k Model S and Model X combined (more than a 10% drop). Model 3 still was 20% off target despite making the entire factory work on Model 3. Model 3 production for the quarter was terrible too. And it's green... At the end of the day, the cash position and their accounts payable this quarter matter much more than their production anyways (as bad as the production report was.
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exp
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12:52p, 4/10/18
AG
Already back to 305.
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to exp • 12:54p, 4/10/18
AG
exp said:
Already back to 305.
To me It's a waiting game on when to start my short...
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1876er
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In reply to bmks270 • 10:26a, 4/11/18
AG
bmks270 said:
exp said:
bmks270 said:
Tesla's valuation is silly and absurd considering other individual automakers are taking international and US market share from Tesla, do it at a profit, and do it along with the rest of their car lineup that sells an order of magnitude more than Tesla does.



It's not apples to apples.

Other car manufacturers are just that... Car manufacturers. Tesla has the POTENTIAL to become a dominant, fully vertically integrated green energy company whose brand power permeates as much as GE did in the 90s. The potential scope of business for Tesla in 20 years if they can make it puts *car* companies to shame.

I believe in them. Am worried about short term, but less so the long term.


Delusion. The stated mission is to sell electric cars. Not become a green energy company that rivals GE.

Quote:
The Mission of Tesla. Our goal when we created Tesla a decade ago was the same as it is today: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.


Right. And Apple was just a company that made MP3 players.
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Diggity
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In reply to 1876er • 10:45a, 4/11/18
AG
computers would have been a better argument.
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Ulrich
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1:08p, 4/11/18
Apple's original mission statement: "To make a contribution to the world by making tools for the mind that advance humankind."

Tesla is clearly trying to do a lot more than cars, but it's not like Apple claimed to be a quiet little manufacturer.
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TennAg
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3:29p, 4/11/18
The difference between apple and tesla is that tesla is running full sprint into commoditizing markets. Not only that, they buy those commodities from competitors and then underbid same in order to win contracts (buying retail and selling wholesale). They have no technology advantages despite their futuristic packaging and they are selling at huge losses to grab share.

Even worse their cash for r&d is drying up while their much larger and profitable competitors can spend at will.
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Dddfff
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2:14p, 4/12/18
AG
Interesting that Tesla just overtook Apple as the most shorted US stock. I'm guessing those that are short Apple are hedging with a long peer. Either way, just be wary that the short field is crowded which can exacerbate upside swings...
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to Dddfff • 2:27p, 4/12/18
AG
Beat the Hell said:
Interesting that Tesla just overtook Apple as the most shorted US stock. I'm guessing those that are short Apple are hedging with a long peer. Either way, just be wary that the short field is crowded which can exacerbate upside swings...
I was reviewing shorts on TSLA and there is no way in hell I am buying any puts right now!! Premiums are way too high with the flooded interest. They've also had a hell of a bounce since their credit downgrade and dipped into the low 220s. I'll look at the puts again in a few months.
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Dddfff
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2:39p, 4/12/18
AG
Good news for Tesla shorts... CNBC quoted an analyst who said the stock will go to $84 by the end of next year. The bad news is it's a dude you've never heard of and ranked #2375 of 4767 on tipranks.com.
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to Dddfff • 2:46p, 4/12/18
AG
Beat the Hell said:
Good news for Tesla shorts... CNBC quoted an analyst who said the stock will go to $84 by the end of next year. The bad news is it's a dude you've never heard of and ranked #2375 of 4767 on tipranks.com.
I think there are going to be a lot of shorts squeezed in the near term and the time to begin to take the shorts will be around Oct. when the Model 3 **** ups come more to light.
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Ulrich
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4:33p, 4/12/18
I'm also planning to do a deep dive around October this year. If the price is right and research confirms my suspicions, I'll put a lot of money on Tesla dropping under 150-175 by the end of 2019.
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MemorialTXAg
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In reply to Dddfff • 6:43p, 4/12/18
Beat the Hell said:
Good news for Tesla shorts... CNBC quoted an analyst who said the stock will go to $84 by the end of next year. The bad news is it's a dude you've never heard of and ranked #2375 of 4767 on tipranks.com.


When you suck so bad, you might as well go all out and say they will go bankrupt. Probably a safer call than saying it will stay where it's at anyway.
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Dddfff
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9:25a, 4/13/18
AG
Musk tweeted out Tesla will be profitable and cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4... stock up a bit. Seems like a reach.
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Burdizzo
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In reply to Dddfff • 9:27a, 4/13/18
AG
Beat the Hell said:
Musk tweeted out Tesla will be profitable and cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4... stock up a bit. Seems like a reach.


What is TSLA's revenue stream when they don't sell cars?
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to Dddfff • 9:58a, 4/13/18
AG
Beat the Hell said:
Musk tweeted out Tesla will be profitable and cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4... stock up a bit. Seems like a reach.
LOL

He's full of ****
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Ulrich
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10:06a, 4/13/18
Are they planning to divest the automotive division and play some revrec games?
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TennAg
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11:07a, 4/13/18
Just a warning, he could be right on this but it will be smoke and mirrors and only last for a while.

-Tesla hoards their credits and sells them at one time when they need a boost
-They could open model y deposits
-They could further stiff their suppliers and add a few more days outstanding to payables
-When tax credits look like they're winding down (should be later this year) there will be a large demand spike

If all or most these things line up, they may achieve a profitable q or two. But after that it will be a bloodbath.
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Bassmaster
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In reply to Dddfff • 1:29p, 4/13/18
AG
Beat the Hell said:
Musk tweeted out Tesla will be profitable and cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4... stock up a bit. Seems like a reach.
I would say so. The guy is a con artist.
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Burdizzo
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8:03p, 4/15/18
AG
Car and Driver has a reveal article this month on Jaguar's I-Pace, mid-sized, 5 passenger, electic sedan, that looks like a direct competitor to the Tesla Model 3.

Unlike TSLA, Jag has decades of experience mass producing cars. They are smart enough to buy the batteries from people that know about manufacturing batteries (Panasonic). They are also in the business of knowing the car business well enough to know where the margins are made. Assuming this car doesn't have Lucas electrical, it will be yet another competitor to a car TSLA is struggling to get to market.
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Ranger222
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8:14a, 4/16/18
AG
The Musk tweet is really interesting to me. Is this not a forward looking statement provided by a company CEO without a disclaimer? Me thinks this would not play well with the SEC and he only continues to open a can of worms for himself and the company.
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Rice and Fries
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In reply to Ranger222 • 8:57a, 4/16/18
Ranger222 said:
The Musk tweet is really interesting to me. Is this not a forward looking statement provided by a company CEO without a disclaimer? Me thinks this would not play well with the SEC and he only continues to open a can of worms for himself and the company.
It'll have about as much merit as Musk april fools joke about Tesla going BK.
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Gordo14
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In reply to Ranger222 • 9:17a, 4/16/18
Ranger222 said:
The Musk tweet is really interesting to me. Is this not a forward looking statement provided by a company CEO without a disclaimer? Me thinks this would not play well with the SEC and he only continues to open a can of worms for himself and the company.


As if Musk has ever taken forward looking statements seriously and not exaggerated at best.... Or more likely lied the whole way. If he was anybody else, people would be asking for his head due to a lack of corporate governance at Tesla. There was a recent law suit filed that stated that as long ago as may 2016, Elon was told that it would be physically impossible to ramp the model 3 in 2017 because of lead times for manufacturing equipment. That didn't stop Elon from, in 2017, suggesting Tesla would make 100,000-200,000 in 2017 in a tweet.
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TennAg
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In reply to Burdizzo • 11:45a, 4/16/18
It's a sweet car, google already placed an order for 20k units.
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Deputy Travis Junior
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2:20p, 4/17/18
Tesla halted their Model 3 production line today to fix a bunch of automation bugs.

Tesla is on borrowed time. As soon as another car company makes a decent competitor (and Porsche, Audi, and BMW are all designing cars to address the same market segments), Tesla is going to crater.
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jamaggie06
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6:29p, 4/17/18
AG
Whatever! The totally not inentionally leaked memo from Elon today says theyre gonna make 6,000 mode 3's a week by June!

Can you say capital raise?
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TennAg
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7:37p, 4/17/18
For anyone who missed Friday's tweet, Elon admitted that they over-automated the line for the model 3. Never mind that extreme automation is primary premise of tlsa's valuation. Never mind that he's been ridiculing the legacy manufacturers as slow, incompetent and archaic for years.

The dude's absolutely full of **** and will be a joke within a couple years.

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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to TennAg • 7:44p, 4/17/18
AG
Jan. 17, 2020 puts...
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TennAg
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 7:52p, 4/17/18
Agreed but I fear Elon's ego and control of the board. To most, chapter 11 would make business sense but I could see him selling some spacex to keep tesla alive a couple more years just for his reputation's sake. I'm not sure he grasps reality. His tesla shares are borrowed against so that another consideration.

All the spacex fans should take some notes here, it's likely that's a house of cards too, financially.
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