Again, I'm not saying Musk is the greatest ever. But even Ford misses timelines...

https://electrek.co/2020/06/10/ford-delays-f150-electric-pickup-truck-2022/amp/

It's hard to predict the future for everybody. Does Tesla miss deadlines? Yes, but that doesn't mean they're going bankrupt

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I think you're wrong, but neither of us knows for sure. You have, in this thread, stated that you believe they could operate their auto business profitably and I believe that's pretty evident. Within 2 1/2 years (Model Y ramp, new battery technology, Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, we'll have a very very clear picture of what this company is going to be, and I think you're going to ultimately admit you were wrong.

I have a financial investment in Tesla, but it's not something I can't easily afford to lose. More than anything I think that electric vehicles, and the vision for the energy grid they propose is far better for people in the future than what we currently have. It's more efficient and ultimately will make electricity and transportation cheaper for everyone. That's without considering environmental aspects of it.

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Yes, I think they could operate profitably, but in doing so, it would acknowledge that contrary to fanboy stock price forecasters, Tesla will not become 150% of the total global automotive market. Thus, if Tesla chose to actually execute their business in a profitable manner, the stock price is coming down. In order to justify the stock price, they have to continually sell an insane growth narrative. This allows people to ignore the reality of what has been baked into the current price (i.e. Tesla literally ruling the world). As little as five years ago, stock price targets for TODAY were about half of what the current price is, and those same targets were based on forward looking statements (back then) that FAR EXCEED what Tesla is currently doing. And I'm sure, today's analyst stock price targets for 2025 are based on absurd, unrealistic, not gonna happen sales, revenue, margins, etc. that won't be hit by then (or ever) either, and the stock price will still probably be $20,000.

Also, can you elaborate on this? Tesla is going to make electricity cheaper? Maybe, if there's some real breakthrough in battery technology (we've only been hearing about these better batteries since the 1990's), electric vehicles will ultimately be more efficient and cheaper, but I still fail to see how Tesla is going to make electricity cheaper for everyone.

The valuation is nuts - market cap today is just shy of $184b. GM and F combine for under $66b.

It's unreal how volatile the stock price is.

I do think they're going to have different revenue streams than traditional auto companies did, and GM and F will follow suit. I'm sure they'll make autopilot have a significant monthly fee or something. Owning/licensing charging stations can't hurt.

The Powerwall seems to have a niche, though I don't know how big it will be.

will try to short tomorrow if conditions allow for it.

https://electrek.co/2020/06/16/tesla-model-y-quality-issues/

Yes, all manufacturer's occasionally have quality issues. But this has been persistent with Tesal and its b/c they're not focused on making a quality product (they know the fanboys will excuse anything), but, again, this is a fifteen plus year old manufacturing company. Ford, GM, et al, may have the occasional recall, but they don't experience the crap like you see in the article above (which, happened with the Model X, the Model 3, ...). And again, it's not b/c they couldn't get it right or don't know what they're doing. It's delivery stuffing to make numbers so they can show they're taking over the automotive world, so the stock price can stay afloat on hope, and Elon can collect billions upon billions, all while the company itself makes no money.

I have said, and I maintain, this philosophy/strategy would work with the Model S and Model X. Despite the price, the people buying those vehicles in 2014, 2015, etc. were fanboys. The name meant more than any quality issues. However, the model 3, and now the model Y too, was supposed to be the "everyman" car and sell in the millions. Well, the "everyman" by default, isn't a a fanboy and isn't going to accept or overlook the quality issues Telsa has just so it can make its quarterly delivery numbers dump; especially when paying $40,000+ for a car.

There's actually a viable business here with strong brand loyalty. But it's all the other issues with how this company operates that keeps me away.

I suspect they have quality issues because any employee who would flag them and delay getting the car out the door would be fired, and that mentality comes from the CEO.

bmks270 said:

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I suspect they have quality issues because any employee who would flag them and delay getting the car out the door would be fired, and that mentality comes from the CEO.

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True. And it comes from the brand loyalty of the fan boys. Its why I said they could be a profitable company, but it would destroy the company's market cap; focus on quality, charge appropriate pricing (they'll buy them anyway) and live with the smaller marketshare. Instead, they exploit their fanboy love and rush out products knowing they'll excuse any flaws bc they have to maintain this image of unlimited growth. Even now, they're priced like the own the entire automotive market. How much more will Tesla be "worth" when they literally are pushing out a million cars? "Worth" more than Amazon? But eventually, they'll run out of folks who are fanboys. I assume the hope is that they'll have mastered self driving by then and potentially offer a real value proposition to the average buyer.

You need to do some research and open your eyes.

Biggest thing for me in Tesla's are the aluminum double wishbone suspensions. Weight savings at the expense of fatigue life. Whole wheel assemblies are torn off at speed and driven right into the car's wheel well.

I don't know how Tesla has pulled off it not being bigger news, but its definitely a reoccurring problem.

In case you needed a reason to hate a similar company:

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-06-17/nikola-s-founder-exaggerated-the-capability-of-his-debut-truck

one MEEN Ag said:

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Biggest thing for me in Tesla's are the aluminum double wishbone suspensions. Weight savings at the expense of fatigue life. Whole wheel assemblies are torn off at speed and driven right into the car's wheel well.

I don't know how Tesla has pulled off it not being bigger news, but its definitely a reoccurring problem.

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Elon very much seems to have a "done is better than perfect" mentality. You see some similar type of outcomes at both Tesla and SpaceX. Tesla letting some questionable quality vehicles hit the road. And recently with SpaceX the number of serious hardware failures they've had during testing. It has been an efficient philosophy for Musk.

fig96 said:

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Is it actually a problem though? A quick search doesn't reveal anyone talking about it, and Model S's that are 8+ years old seem to still be on the road.

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Yeah it's a major problem if you look at the rate of occurrence relative to any other make and model vehicle, what other vehicle has had as many suspension failures?

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=tesla+whompy+wheels&FORM=HDRSC2&PC=APPL

fig96 said:

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Is it actually a problem though? A quick search doesn't reveal anyone talking about it, and Model S's that are 8+ years old seem to still be on the road.

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I'll need to find the old articles and NHTSA reports about it as there's a compilation floating out on the internet.

There is something wrong with the dynamic loading of the car that isn't either A) Being modeled in such a way that reflects reality B) Defects in the aluminum parts that aren't getting caught during Tesla's initial inspection. (Tesla might not even have an initial inspection team for these parts, they could be so six-sigma lean that they don't even inspect incoming parts like how toyota doesn't.)

My uneducated guess is the incredible accelerations of the electric motor are exacerbating fatigue failure on marginally defective parts.

Tesla should be able to pull all this data together, but car companies have been caught in a trap before. If you improve just whats wrong, then you're admitting to a fault and now you're a target for lawsuits. (GM Ignition switch comes to mind, also the safer cigarette).

Why focus on suspension failures, as opposed to total failures?

If you're going to pick on them, do it for general reliability (which I don't know much about). Who cares if Tesla's weak link is weaker than the strong link of other brands IF their overall reliability is better?

Again, I'm not arguing Teslas are more reliable, but I'm sure you can find a weak link in any mass produced car.

bmks270 said:

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fig96 said:

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Is it actually a problem though? A quick search doesn't reveal anyone talking about it, and Model S's that are 8+ years old seem to still be on the road.

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Yeah it's a major problem if you look at the rate of occurrence relative to any other make and model vehicle, what other vehicle has had as many suspension failures?

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=tesla+whompy+wheels&FORM=HDRSC2&PC=APPL

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I don't know, that's why I asked. Although I'm not sure a pic of a Tesla wrapped around a tree with a broken axle is compelling evidence here

gvine07 said:

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Why focus on suspension failures, as opposed to total failures?

If you're going to pick on them, do it for general reliability (which I don't know much about). Who cares if Tesla's weak link is weaker than the strong link of other brands IF their overall reliability is better?

Again, I'm not arguing Teslas are more reliable, but I'm sure you can find a weak link in any mass produced car.

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Because most "reliability" issues are minor stuff that don't pose a safety risk. This particular failure poses a major safety risk. Teslas do seem to be generally mechanically reliable. I haven't seen the data for tesla vs other brands but have seen enough of the suspension failures to know that it is an issue. I'm not aware of any similar safety risk type of failure for other makes currently in production.

I think if Toyota or Honda or Ford had repeated suspension failures or other type of catastrophic failure that disabled the vehicle we would have heard about it.

Tesla just ranked very last in JD power initial quality survey.

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The California-based automaker scored worst out of all 32 brands covered by the J.D. Power Initial Quality Study, which measures the problems motorists face during the first 90 days of ownership.

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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1232055

Yeah, that's not good.

Lol color me shocked. Tesla has tried for years to keep their production quality under wraps.

Tesla stock price was 185 on may 31, 2019. Just over a year later and it's at 960.
Who thinks it may be a little overvalued?

Mas89 said:

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Tesla stock price was 185 on may 31, 2019. Just over a year later and it's at 960.
Who thinks it may be a little overvalued?

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Musk

Mas89 said:

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Tesla stock price was 185 on may 31, 2019. Just over a year later and it's at 960.
Who thinks it may be a little overvalued?

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Beat by 25% on vehicle deliveries. Up quarter over quarter from Q1 despite the virus and factory shutdowns.

I haven't done quite that well, at 100% in the last 4 months. I bought a leap at their peak just before the crash, cratered 80% in value and held on through to now. Don't think 5-10x return is out of the question by the time it expires on my birthday next year. I'll probably be out of it by then.

hph6203 said:

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I haven't done quite that well, at 100% in the last 4 months. I bought a leap at their peak just before the crash, cratered 80% in value and held on through to now. Don't think 5-10x return is out of the question by the time it expires on my birthday next year. I'll probably be out of it by then.

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Debating when the appropriate time to exit is, my gut says Q3 earnings, but I'm not sure if the price will rise enough to justify the hold. Between potential profit in Q2, S&P 500 inclusion, battery/drivetrain announcements, new factory announcement and a potentially record breaking Q3 it might still have a lot of room to grow.

I'm up over 8x on a very modest initial investment.

I both wish I'd put in more yet know that it would've been heart attack inducing along the way.

$10k into $72k. I'll let my kids worry about selling it after I die, or I'll donate it for the deduction.

So help me understand this. Tesla is up ~$40B in marketcap today. Ford's marketcap is ~$25B. GM is ~$35B. Does that make sense to anyone else?

Those other companies are just car companies. Tesla is/is trying to be more than just a car company.

Have a situation where stockholders know/believe that institutional investors will have to be purchasing stock in the near term, so sell side is suppressed and buy side has increased substantially since delivery numbers were announced a week and a half ago with the expectation that Tesla will announce a profit for Q2 on 7/22. A profit means S&P eligibility and a lot of the sell side has been individuals forced by brokerages to sell their stocks held on margin. That belief is bolstered by Elon tweeting that Tesla will be selling limited edition short shorts.

Saw a chart where Fidelity/Etrade sent an e-mail to stock holders on margin increasing their equity rate to 70% from 55%, right after the e-mail the stock jumped substantially.

I don't believe it's done yet, and I'm holding a 1540 strike Sept 2021 call until at least after earnings/S&P announcement. Up 480+% since purchase and expect it'll approach 7-800% before all is said and done (representing a stock price of ~2000). Not sure I can stomach holding through Q3 earnings and I may end up leaving 10's of thousands on the table if there isn't a big sell off. YHOO in 1999 got added to the S&P 500 and spiked 64% in the 5 days between the announcement of inclusion and the actual inclusion. That happened ~1 month after earnings. Not sure how long TSLA will have to wait.


As far as WHY Tesla is valued higher than those car companies.

-Leader in EV and Elon just announced their low priced Model Y will have a range in excess of 300 miles
-Prices of vehicles continue to fall despite strong demand relative to other automakers even through this pandemic.
-Tesla is expected to announce improved battery technology that could make the cost of the EV price comparable to a standard combustion engine on sticker price alone, total cost of ownership will be substantially less than a comparable combustion vehicle.
-Full self driving re-write for increased functionality/perceptions of the vehicle/training is expected to launch in the next couple of months that stitches sensor data into an all encompassing view in real-time rather than individually assessed sensor data.
-Biggest thing from a technology standpoint is that Tesla is expected to announce that they will become an energy supplier, so I expect you're going to see price reductions in solar installations (if paired with battery backup/powerwalls) and vehicle prices so that they can gain the ongoing revenues from storing/distributing electricity back to the grid from peak production to peak consumption. Given the current work environment where large numbers of people are actually working from home it works out better for Tesla than any other auto manufacturer as even though people are driving less, Tesla will still gain revenue from stagnant vehicles. The value proposition of owning an EV is about to get much better.

john32f said:

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So help me understand this. Tesla is up ~$40B in marketcap today. Ford's marketcap is ~$25B. GM is ~$35B. Does that make sense to anyone else?

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It makes no sense. TSLA is insanely overvalued, but that's the perk of being King Meme Stock. It's like Kim Kardashian, rich and famous for being rich and famous. A self propelling vehicle of momentum completely detached from it's underlying production (or lackthereof).