Gordo14 said:

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khkman22 said:

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What is the reason for the latest run up? I would like to short it in various ways, but it behaves too irrational to be able to. Kind of like "don't fight the Fed" during QE manipulation, but with TSLA, I'm not sure what I'm not supposed to try to fight.

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It mostly has gone up the last week for 3 reasons. Elon Musks comments at a shareholder meeting that still somehow are taken at face value given how inaccurate his comments have been, Elon musk tweeting about the SpaceX option on the roadster and all that hype . And then today some analyst upped his target for model 3 production for the month so that fans all giddy. It actually dropped quite a bit when the layoffs were announced. I don't know about you, but I don't think it's a good sign when my high growth company lays off almost 10% of its workforce. Still doesn't change the fact Tesla has $-2.3B in working capital (and counting).

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What growth is the stock priced for?



The company has negative cash flow and is shrinking. Annual layoffs? If they were growing they wouldn't be having annual layoffs.

khkman22 said:

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What is the reason for the latest run up? I would like to short it in various ways, but it behaves too irrational to be able to. Kind of like "don't fight the Fed" during QE manipulation, but with TSLA, I'm not sure what I'm not supposed to try to fight.

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There's more run up coming. Tesla will take the hit this quarter for the layoffs pulling even one more lever (in addition to this week's bull**** fsd announcement) to engineer a faux profitable Q3. They will do everything possible to create a crescendo of momentum and if they're lucky they'll parlay that into some funding which they desperately need.

Alas, the party is then over as they'll have trouble from every direction in the next 12-18 months including but not limited to:

-real competition...finally
-lawsuits
-m3 margins (lol) crashing as they find the bulk of reservations are in the lower trim and battery levels
-fed tax credit phase out for them and only them
-rising cobalt and nickel prices
-other autonomous tech making it to the streets solidly illustrating to the sycophants just how behind tesla is
-inability to lease the m3 while the overwhelming majority of evs are
-waning demand for higher margin s and x
-interest rates increasing
-inability to service such a rapidly growing fleet
-finally, the realization that m3 demand is quite limited and will quickly slow to a trickle AND the awakening to the fact that volume doesn't actually matter because the company will still lose money on every vehicle sold

So...the smart shorts will probably wait for momentum to peak and the current shorts to tap out. Probably around the end of the year assuming the overall market holds. Just a guess.

Musk saying software was sabotaged and stolen.

So, is that the root cause why Tesla has had all of the production misses?

bmks270 said:

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Musk saying software was sabotaged and stolen.

So, is that the root cause why Tesla has had all of the production misses?

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I'd sure hope a company that always knows my location and controls my braking, acceleration, and "autopilot" could find a saboteur before he could wreck a 50 billion dollar outfit.

Musk floats the idea of taking the company private... Where the hell would he get the money to do it???

People on SA saying it would take like 80 billion. Also there are obviously some sec regulations he is probably crossing by posting information like that.

Doubt the validity that Musk sent that tweet.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Musk floats the idea of taking the company private... Where the hell would he get the money to do it???

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I didn't see this. I would think a "group deal" with Softbank leading the deal could get this done.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/musk-considering-taking-tesla-private

In the history of management buyouts, I wonder if there has ever been one where someone tweeted about it ahead of time.

Also, I can imagine the litigation he would go through if the price is lower than $420 / share.

Shares just halted trading on the nasdaq

I am sure TSLA has good counsel. There must be a deal in the making... Not sure how far it is going to get, but I like the public disclosure.

Elon is an interesting guy.

Received the alert. No news? My 1st shorts filled but want $400.

Is the tweet legal from a business perspective? Insider trading, anti-competition, or other SEC ruling?

drewbie08 said:

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Is the tweet legal from a business perspective? Insider trading, anti-competition, or other SEC ruling?

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If anything, he violated SEC disclosure requirements. I don't see where the other would apply.

Yeah, when I typed that I couldn't understand exactly what law he might have broken, if any.

Possibly Reg FD kinda like Reed Hastings did a few years. The disclosure rules on social media are still a little fuzzy but I'm sure general counsel and investor relations dept were in full red alert mode for an hour or two.

Does Einhorn still have any tsla shorted?

If so, I bet the tweet was payback for Einhorns recent comments.

He's an idiot to take them private. The business has shown zero ability to generate cash on it's own, and without access to equity or equity-linked capital markets he'll be out of cash in a year.

jh0400 said:

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He's an idiot to take them private. The business has shown zero ability to generate cash on it's own, and without access to equity or equity-linked capital markets he'll be out of cash in a year.

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His reasons to take them private have some merit in my opinion.

Einhorn is definitely still short and I was about to make a comment that that dude has to be near suicide watch. He's a value investor who may be right about Tesla and his other shorts but the market isn't always rational. He's got his ass kicked this year so far.

They sound like good ideas, but it doesn't change the fact that TSLA has not shown the ability (nor do I believe that it has the ability) to generate enough cash to fund the business before it exhausts its current runway. It needs the cheap money it has been able to raise in the convertible debt market, and without a publicly traded equity that market is now off limits. On top of that, he's got $8B of notional value debt outstanding with make whole (real takeout value is probably north of $10B) that will need to be accelerated because it's equity-linked.

The shorts got their faces ripped off this morning on the massive Saudi sovereign fund investment. Musks tweet actually helped to pull the stock back from pre-halt highs. A CEO coming out and saying the company is open to going private is nothing new.

tysker said:

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The shorts got their faces ripped off this morning on the massive Saudi sovereign fund investment. Musks tweet actually helped to pull the stock back from pre-halt highs. A CEO coming out and saying the company is open to going private is nothing new.

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That's not what happened at all. The stock was up like 5% on the Saudi news. Then, conveniently near the all time high he says he's secured funding to take Tesla private at $420 a share (taking a $71B company private in itself is pretty hard to imagine honestly). That's not saying "we want to go private" that's an effort to push the stock through a bunch of margin calls. If he wanted to take Tesla private, just ****ing do it the normal way. The same thing happens to short sellers and shareholders.

Just randomly tweeting a share price is about forcing a short squeeze... there's no reason to do this if he actually already has the funding secured.

Your misrepresenting the stock action today. And he says the company has secured funding? Besides being highly doubtful, I dont recall that information being disclosed. The market certainly doesn't believe it as there's still 10% arb value from his tweeted takeout price.

The article I linked has in quotations "Funding secured"

Yep missed him mentioning it was secured. This is great for shareholders, the company and especially the bondholders.

If announcing such information via a tweet versus a press release is a problem for you maybe investing shouldnt be your thing.

I don't necessarily see an issue with the method of the announcement in his particular case because TSLA has made it known in previous SEC filings that significant announcements do come from his twitter (and he has a bajillion followers). But if it contains bull****, that is a problem.

tysker said:

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Yep missed him mentioning it was secured. This is great for shareholders, the company and especially the bondholders.

If announcing such information via a tweet versus a press release is a problem for you maybe investing shouldnt be your thing.

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That wasn't releasing anything. It's market manipulation. He never said the company is going private. He picked the top and tried to margin call shorts. Notice the stock didn't move anywhere near $420 - clearly the market thinks this isn't going to happen either.