TennAg said:

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Believe me that all analysts who heard the call had their ears perk up when he wouldn't answer basic questions on cash burn and reservations. He made a huge mistake, everyone, including the biggest pumper of all analysts, is calling his behavior "bizarre."

Now people might actually start digging into facts and discounting some of the hype.

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What hype? While there are some bulls out there the bull case is incremental at best, a longer term view and a equal weighting or market performance rating. Most analysts are bears and have lower PTs.

Even if one believes Elon isn't being evasive to hide damaging info, shareholders have to be concerned that he just cost them billions in market cap because he was too "bored" to act professional for an hour once a quarter.

With that disregard for share price performance, I'd be worried about how flippant he'd be about a shareholder wipe-out in bankruptcy. He's already borrowed against millions (13-14?) of his shares so he's somewhat cashed out.

TennAg said:

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tysker said:

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TennAg said:

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Believe me that all analysts who heard the call had their ears perk up when he wouldn't answer basic questions on cash burn and reservations. He made a huge mistake, everyone, including the biggest pumper of all analysts, is calling his behavior "bizarre."

Now people might actually start digging into facts and discounting some of the hype.

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What hype? While there are some bulls out there the bull case is incremental at best, a longer term view and a equal weighting or market performance rating. Most analysts are bears and have lower PTs.

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Are you serious? Tesla has about .5% of the consumer vehicle market in the US (actually less) yet has had valuations above Ford and GM. The stock's entire narrative is based on hypotheticals.

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Yes I'm serious. But I'm referring to the stock price, not the automobile. Most of the analysts have lower price targets and its a highly shorted stock. The company's ability to access the capital markets is coming into question. What exactly is the long side hype? It seems the algos have gotten a hold of the daily trading activity and not enough institutions want to liquidate their holdings, again possibly because they're getting a nice rate loaning out the stock to the shorts.

Analysts average about an even hold rating at the moment. Given that, they still support a price target that is completely built on fantasy.

TennAg said:

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Analysts average about an even hold rating at the moment. Given that, they still support a price target that is completely built on fantasy.

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Stock prices are often about fantasy in the face of uncertainty. If you want non-fantasy try the bond market. Look hold ratings are not hype especially when institutions and hedge funds have a much much lower costs basis. Those groups can wait and hold for a more clear picture, positive or negative. That's not hype, it's caution or (the lazy rating euphemism) "market performance." Frankly there's just doesnt seem to be enough heavy sellers of the stock to move the needle.

I guess you know the actual fair price of the stock and its much lower? Like $210, $150 $80. Sell some long term puts and make a ton of $$. Tesla's bonds are slumping (which is more telling than a lower stock price imo). Buy some Tesla bond insurance or some CDS product and clean up.

Thanks for the investing lesson?

When I say look at facts and not hype, I'm referring to the fact that Tesla has no way to make money. They are losing about 30k per car out the door as of the last quarter. Even IF they manage to hit all their production/margin goals and completely dominate that segment, the 45-60k sedan space is minuscule. Something the analysts don't ever mention.

Quote:

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My point was that the "supercharger" network is irrelevant. Anybody that drives long distances will own two cars if they are determined to own EVs

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Disagree. Why do you think this?

With 400,000 model 3s on order what growth does Tesla have after they fill their pre-sale orders? Everyone who wanted a Tesla will have one.

I just think once these things are finished being delivered in the next 2-3 years they will be out of customers.

And this:




NIKOLA MOTOR HAS SUED TESLA FOR PATENT INFRINGEMENT ON ITS NIKOLA ONE, AT LEFT. THE TESLA MODEL IS AT RIGHT. NIKOLA CLAIMS TESLA VIOLATED PATENTS ON DOOR PLACEMENT, WRAPAROUND WINDSHIELD AND THE FUSELAGE.


https://www.freightwaves.com/news/equipment/nikola-motor-sues-tesla-for-patent-infringement

double aught said:

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Quote:

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My point was that the "supercharger" network is irrelevant. Anybody that drives long distances will own two cars if they are determined to own EVs

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Disagree. Why do you think this?

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So you're going to go on a long road trip where you're stopping every 3 hours for 2 hours - assuming that there is an open stall? What if you have to drive 1000 miles, you're going to do that on an EV? Sorry my time is too valuable for that. And if you aren't buying a high end luxury car (S or X) you still have to pay for it?

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2016/long-term-road-test/2016-tesla-model-x-range-and-charging-while-towing-a-trailer.html

Yes I know he's towing in this story, but the amount of time wasted charging his car is ridiculous for such a short trip. I'll just go to a gas station.

bmks270 said:

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With 400,000 model 3s on order what growth does Tesla have after they fill their pre-sale orders? Everyone who wanted a Tesla will have one.

I just think once these things are finished being delivered in the next 2-3 years they will be out of customers.

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In the next month or so they'll be out of customers willing to spend over $35K for a model 3. Good luck with your margins after you've sold all your $55K+ model 3s.

Gordo14 said:

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bmks270 said:

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With 400,000 model 3s on order what growth does Tesla have after they fill their pre-sale orders? Everyone who wanted a Tesla will have one.

I just think once these things are finished being delivered in the next 2-3 years they will be out of customers.

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In the next month or so they'll be out of customers willing to spend over $35K for a model 3. Good luck with your margins after you've sold all your $55K+ model 3s.

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I'm wondering what the terms for cancellation of orders might be. I sense that the production delays may have some customers saying "F it" and cancelling orders.

IrishTxAggie said:

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I'm wondering what the terms for cancellation of orders might be. I sense that the production delays may have some customers saying "F it" and cancelling orders.

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Reports are that people are requesting refunds and getting them but theyre being told their place in line is being preserved. Which then conveniently allows Tesla to still include them in reservation totals.

run for the ****ing hills

Saw first model 3 in the wild today. What surprised me is that the driver has no gauge cluster. There is just a monitor between the driver and passenger.

bmks270 said:

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Saw first model 3 in the wild today. What surprised me is that the driver has no gauge cluster. There is just a monitor between the driver and passenger.

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That's not the half of it.
Want to adjust wiper speed?
Want to turn the music up?
Want to turn the fan on higher?
All this stuff you've got to find within the center screen (sometimes several layers deep) all with no tactile feedback.

On top of that, they're having problems with the mounting when the the car gets hot inside and so the new software updates automatically runs your battery to cool the car whether you're in it or not.

My coworker got it the other day. Arguably the cheapest made car I ever drove. Just the sound the back door makes when closed is what I imagine ww2 tank door sounding like. No leather, cheap plastics all around. It's ***** But the exterior design is not bad.

Looks like Nikola has some design patents on their truck (design patents merely protect the look/feel of an invention. they don't cover any functional elements). Just looking at the pics, it seems like a stretch, but maybe Nikola thinks "hell, they're giving away so much cash, maybe I can file this lawsuit and they'll give me some too."

How often do people drive 1,000+ miles at a time? The longest I've driven in the last decade is 6 hrs. If for some reason I woke up and decided to hate myself on a 12+ hour drive and owned an electric vehicle I would just rent a car for the trip....

terradactylexpress said:

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How often do people drive 1,000+ miles at a time? The longest I've driven in the last decade is 6 hrs. If for some reason I woke up and decided to hate myself on a 12+ hour drive and owned an electric vehicle I would just rent a car for the trip....

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A lot of Americans do that relatively frequently. That's why it's called summer driving season. I'd say I drive upwards of 6 hours at least 3-4 times a year. I know people that do it ~10 times.

But my point is the super charger network is irrelevant. As you said, If you drive long distances you'd just rent a car. EVs are commuter cars. For a commuter case I don't care about charging networks. A lot of Americans can't afford to have their car not do everything... Especially if it's $50k+

Gordo14 said:

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terradactylexpress said:

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How often do people drive 1,000+ miles at a time? The longest I've driven in the last decade is 6 hrs. If for some reason I woke up and decided to hate myself on a 12+ hour drive and owned an electric vehicle I would just rent a car for the trip....

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A lot of Americans do that relatively frequently. That's why it's called summer driving season. I'd say I drive upwards of 6 hours at least 3-4 times a year. I know people that do it ~10 times.

But my point is the super charger network is irrelevant. As you said, If you drive long distances you'd just rent a car. EVs are commuter cars. For a commuter case I don't care about charging networks. A lot of Americans can't afford to have their car not do everything... Especially if it's $50k+

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The most popular auto in the US is the F150 which starts at $28k but if you need it to "do everything" can cost you over $50k. And you still have to pay for gasoline.

Comparing a Tesla to a F-150 is kind of foolish. The people shopping for an F-150 sure as hell aren't going to have a Tesla as an option on their shopping list.

I'm not suggesting they are. Only that people already spend quite a bit of money on ICE vehicles and a vast majority are for commuter use only, including a large percentage of trucks.

And yes trucks have their place for some drivers. But similar to renting a car for a long drive, you can rent a truck when needed and save money buying a Malibu or a Fiesta (and both are more than enough car for most daily uses). I would make the argument that Ford sells it's $60k F150s to a similar type of buyer that Tesla sells to - one model sells trucks and the other is selling sedans.

Also, the supercharger network allows for Telsa owners to use their vehicle outside of the usual commuter uses. Many people will drive >200 miles for a weekend trip and the supercharger network allows Tesla owners to much more conveniently refuel on those drives outside or the normal battery capacity. Depending on the charger location and end location, you may only spend 15 mins charging which isn't exactly outside of the bounds of your typical stop to gas up, especially when you have kids and a wife with small bladder.

tysker said:

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I'm not suggesting they are. Only that people already spend quite a bit of money on ICE vehicles and a vast majority are for commuter use only, including a large percentage of trucks.

And yes trucks have their place for some drivers. But similar to renting a car for a long drive, you can rent a truck when needed and save money buying a Malibu or a Fiesta (and both are more than enough car for most daily uses). I would make the argument that Ford sells it's $60k F150s to a similar type of buyer that Tesla sells to - one model sells trucks and the other is selling sedans.

Also, the supercharger network allows for Telsa owners to use their vehicle outside of the usual commuter uses. Many people will drive >200 miles for a weekend trip and the supercharger network allows Tesla owners to much more conveniently refuel on those drives outside or the normal battery capacity. Depending on the charger location and end location, you may only spend 15 mins charging which isn't exactly outside of the bounds of your typical stop to gas up, especially when you have kids and a wife with small bladder.

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This reminds me a Tesla owner story on the Tesla message board. Guy went on long trip, planned what charging stations he would use along the way. To his surprise the charging plug would not fit into the car and he was stranded and could not charge the Tesla. The forum replies were "yeah this is a known issue."

So implementation has not been smooth. But it's new technology, so it's a long way from being reliable.

Gordo14 said:

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Beyond a few fanatics, nobody is going to accept 2 hour charge times every 200-300 miles on a long road trip.

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FWIW, they charge much more quickly than that. 20 minutes will take you from 0 to 50%, 40 minutes to 80%, and 75 minutes to 100%. That would get annoying on a very long road trip, but if you're driving 6-700 miles each way and only have to do that once or twice each direction, that's not terrible. You couple easily time a full charge with a lunch stop and a couple of half charges with 20 minute "get out and move around" breaks.

That is assuming you're the only car plugged into the supercharger and you're not splitting power...or waiting in line.

Not that i'm a hater of the concept it's just a pretty sparse buildout still.

Oh I didn't know that they had a power splitting problem (though I had heard about long lines at some stations). Interesting.

It's not a problem per se, just the way it is. But, as far as the lines go, I go mad waiting for one car to fill up with gas, I can't imagine sitting around for an hour waiting for a spot. Hopefully drivers have enough juice left to at least run their AC or heat and still be able to back into the stall when it's free.

What is the reason for the latest run up? I would like to short it in various ways, but it behaves too irrational to be able to. Kind of like "don't fight the Fed" during QE manipulation, but with TSLA, I'm not sure what I'm not supposed to try to fight.

Maybe in response to the layoffs they started today? Maybe investors are interpreting that as shoring up operations and decreasing expenses? The report I saw said they're chopping 9% of salaried, non-production employees.

khkman22 said:

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What is the reason for the latest run up? I would like to short it in various ways, but it behaves too irrational to be able to. Kind of like "don't fight the Fed" during QE manipulation, but with TSLA, I'm not sure what I'm not supposed to try to fight.

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I was considering a neutral play at 350 earlier today

sell the 350 straddle and buy the 400 call and 300 put

like you, i was looking for a time to short it. doesn't seem like now is the right time

khkman22 said:

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What is the reason for the latest run up? I would like to short it in various ways, but it behaves too irrational to be able to. Kind of like "don't fight the Fed" during QE manipulation, but with TSLA, I'm not sure what I'm not supposed to try to fight.

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It mostly has gone up the last week for 3 reasons. Elon Musks comments at a shareholder meeting that still somehow are taken at face value given how inaccurate his comments have been, Elon musk tweeting about the SpaceX option on the roadster and all that hype . And then today some analyst upped his target for model 3 production for the month so that fans all giddy. It actually dropped quite a bit when the layoffs were announced. I don't know about you, but I don't think it's a good sign when my high growth company lays off almost 10% of its workforce. Still doesn't change the fact Tesla has $-2.3B in working capital (and counting).