What I like about the new bats is that it should offer protection for Adolis. He should have a rebound year. It also helps Jung, if he can not have a broken bone, again. To me the biggest wild card is Carter. If he ca stay healthy this team will be special.

If Carter is healthy, then we can still have a successful year without Garcia. Obviously we want him to be really good, but we would also have Langford, Carter and Taveras out there is Pederson available if needed.

But yeah, a good Adolis would make a good Ranger team.

I think that he has peaked, but with the protection this lineup will give him, he should see a lot more hittable pitches which I think will help him.

In 2024, Adolis typically hit #4 and had Late Lowe (49G) and Langford (30G) hitting 5th.
In 2023, Jung hit mostly #5 after Adolis at #4.

HUGE difference.

Adolis also was headed to Arb when they agreed on a 2 year deal. Adolis is an emotional guy and I think it hurt his feelings. He basically agreed to the Rangers '24 money and they gave him an increase for '25.

I'm expecting Adolis to be protected by Jung (stay healthy) or Pederson and in a contract year, Adolis is going to knock the ball around. MVP season?! We'll see.

I think there is uncertainty what Bochy will do, but the following at the top is likely:
Semien - 4: .237, 23 HR, .308 OBP, .699 OPS, 8 SB -> 100 OPS+
Seager (L) - 6: .278, 30 HR, .353, .864 OPS -> 145 OPS+
Langford - 7: .253, 16 HR, .325 OBP, .740 OPS, 19 SB -> 111 OPS+
Garcia - 9: .224, 25 HR, .284 OBP, .684 OPS, 11 SB -> 94 OPS+
Pederson (L) - DH: .275, 23 HR, .393 OBP, .908 OPS -> 151 OPS+
Jung - 5: .264, 7 HR, .298 OBP, .719 OPS -> 104 OPS+ Limited to 46GP
Heim (S) - 2: .220, 13 HR, .267 OBP, .602 OPS -> 72 OPS+
Burger - 3: .250, 29 HR, .301 OBP, .760 OPS -> 103 OPS+
Taveras (S) - 8: .229, 12 HR, .289 OBP, .641 OPS, 23 SB -> 84 OPS+

Semien wasn't brought in to leadoff with a .308 OBP. I believe his wife gave birth during the season, so he may have been sleep deprived along with tired from 2023.
Langford was by far the most abused by bad strike zone calls. Imagine him getting "average" calls.

That lineup doesn't have Carter in it. *cough* Taveras *cough*

Mostly agree.

I believe it is always about health.

I do think waiting until the trade deadline to add anymore BP piece could serve us well. We'll want to add one, anyway... that's what we've done. Who to add? Let's see.

Adding anyone through FA is years and dollars. Dollars isn't a bad thing, but the years is what kills you. Yates for 1 yr? Sure. Yates for 2... 3... ? Maybe not.

See my other post about the lineup. Should be a fun and exciting season.

I'm interested to see how Langford improves in the power department. Also will Carter start the year out in the minors or will he be in the opening day lineup?

Toronto just bought some Int'l Pool money.... $2M worth.


Here is what the final 3 Sasaki suitors started with:
San Diego: $6,261,600
Toronto: $6,261,600
Los Angeles Dodgers: $5,146,200

I didn't think Toronto had a shot, but they could be best case, IMO. None of those 3 teams have signed anyone, yet.

With the California State Taxes, all 3 are likely similar in Taxes.
SDP has some silly ownership in-fighting going on and haven't done anything in FA.
LAD have signed/bought everyone and they don't care. If Sasaki thought the Japanese media was bad... he won't want any part of LA.

It's going to be the Dodgers. The padres were told they were out of it this morning.

I think Carter replaces Janko as the 4th OF. He is a Lefty, as well.

Langford-Taveras-Adolis / Carter-Smith
Jung-Seager-Semien-Burger / Duran-Smith
Heim-Higashioka
Pederson

That's 13.

Foscue (CornerIF)-Ornelas (MIF)-Harris (OF) who knows.

What a kick in the junk for the Padres.

I believe the Mets came in and signed #2 Int'l prospect Elian Peña, who had a long-time commit to SDP.

$5M spent by the NYM.

I just don't know how you compete in the NL and NL West right now. Like the Dodgers have the best team on paper since maybe the late 90's Yankees or early 90's Braves? They might even be better than those teams.

Tksymm7 said:

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I just don't know how you compete in the NL and NL West right now. Like the Dodgers have the best team on paper since maybe the late 90's Yankees or early 90's Braves? They might even be better than those teams.

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Are they not over the Tax threshold?

Way over. But they don't seem to give a ****. They paid $103mm for 2024 and are projected to have another $100mm in 2025. They seem to have accepted that a $450mm payroll when you factor it all in is worth it as long as you have a championship level team. With California prices for fans, I assume that being at that championship level generates plenty of revenue to cover it

That's wild that they can just constantly not care about it like that

I guess if you sell enough tickets, hats, and dodger dogs at SoCal prices, all is good

They did sign a 25 year, $8 billion tv deal a decade ago. So AAV, that's a cool $320mm of revenue per year. That's really where the leverage comes from

So... I believe the Dodgers are currently (based on COTS):
$360M - 2025 CBT
$120M - Over CBT threshold

They paid $103M tax on $353M. I believe they are at the 110% Tax. They also lose Int'l Pool money.

Their commits for 2026 have them at $26M over the 2026 CBT threshold.

In addition to all of that... they currently have over $1B deferred owed to 7 players. That deferred money is not subject to the CBT because it pays off far enough into the future (10+yrs).
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42760649/dodgers-deferred-payments-top-1-billion-7-players

Quote:

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Los Angeles now owes deferred payments of $1,006,500,000 to seven players.

"It's just how you account for it," Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Tuesday at a news conference to introduce Snell. "You have to fund a lot of it right now, and having that money go to work for you, we have -- a lot of our ownership group are from financial background and can have that money going to work right now, and just making it -- not something that sneaks up on us. We're not going to wake up in 2035 and [say], 'Oh my God, that's right. We have this money due.' We'll plan for it along the way."

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It is what I've explained on the Politics board about Taxes... specifically Cap Gains Taxes.

If the Gov decides to increase CapGains Taxes above 19%, someone like Bill Gates and Bezos will just borrow money against their investments. Their investments are giving them huge returns. They borrow Fed money for 3-5% while their investments are drawing 10+/-%... they net 5-7% on that money by deferring the recognition by the Taxing authority... in this case MLB.

MLB says, "we'll tax you at 110% for anything you give over the next 10 years." So, they say, "I'll pay you a (say 50%) premium to take some of this money in 11 years." The team doesn't have to pay 110% tax... they invest that money and pay the player from an investment that has increased in value.

Dodgers were hoping the rest of the league would follow their lead, thus creating a consensus to scrap the CBT in the next CBA. The rest of the league isn't falling for it.

BTW Leclrec to the A's for 1 year, $10MM. We hopefully know just to never swing at anything - he's incapable of getting it over the plate three times in an at bat.

DallasAg 94 said:

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So... I believe the Dodgers are currently (based on COTS):
$360M - 2025 CBT
$120M - Over CBT threshold

They paid $103M tax on $353M. I believe they are at the 110% Tax. They also lose Int'l Pool money.

Their commits for 2026 have them at $26M over the 2026 CBT threshold.

In addition to all of that... they currently have over $1B deferred owed to 7 players. That deferred money is not subject to the CBT because it pays off far enough into the future (10+yrs).
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42760649/dodgers-deferred-payments-top-1-billion-7-players

Quote:

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Los Angeles now owes deferred payments of $1,006,500,000 to seven players.

"It's just how you account for it," Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Tuesday at a news conference to introduce Snell. "You have to fund a lot of it right now, and having that money go to work for you, we have -- a lot of our ownership group are from financial background and can have that money going to work right now, and just making it -- not something that sneaks up on us. We're not going to wake up in 2035 and [say], 'Oh my God, that's right. We have this money due.' We'll plan for it along the way."

---

It is what I've explained on the Politics board about Taxes... specifically Cap Gains Taxes.

If the Gov decides to increase CapGains Taxes above 19%, someone like Bill Gates and Bezos will just borrow money against their investments. Their investments are giving them huge returns. They borrow Fed money for 3-5% while their investments are drawing 10+/-%... they net 5-7% on that money by deferring the recognition by the Taxing authority... in this case MLB.

MLB says, "we'll tax you at 110% for anything you give over the next 10 years." So, they say, "I'll pay you a (say 50%) premium to take some of this money in 11 years." The team doesn't have to pay 110% tax... they invest that money and pay the player from an investment that has increased in value.

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That is all true, except you left out the market correction and/or bear market in whatever asset class invested in. Nothing goes up 10% every single year without down years in perpetuity. Except maybe Citadel or Millennium, but the point stands.

I think the Dodgers are running the numbers on the increase in revenue for championships covering the CBT tax so net net it makes sense to go above it.

Ray Davis, and all other owners, run the same numbers and don't get to the same outcome. The Mets are the only other team that seem to blow it off and that will blow up in Cohen's face soon. He's just too arrogant to recognize it yet and doesn't have enough money to cover it once the **** hits the fan. They absolutely have to win the World Series in 2025 or he's in deep ***** And even then, the Mets carry a fraction of the NY fanbase that the Yankees do. So even winning it all won't cover it because there aren't enough Mets fans to move the needle in revenue generated. You have to be the Yankees or Dodgers to cover that, with the Red Sox, Cubs and Cardinals on the next tier.

And there's the Sasaki to Dodgers deal. Weird part is idk where he fits into their rotation at all lol.

Tksymm7 said:

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And there's the Sasaki to Dodgers deal. Weird part is idk where he fits into their rotation at all lol.

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He's about to get TJ surgery, right?

Don't get me wrong. I wanted the Rangers to sign him. But…

The injury stuff is more predicting he'll have major arm issues I thought?

I thought I saw somewhere that his velocity had been decreasing and they had lowered his workload. That was the reasoning behind him posting now instead of in two years when he could get the big contract.

But I don't know any of these things for sure.

I've posted about his lost Velo. It was noted last year.

He agent came out and said one reason he wanted to Post before 25 was because there is no guarantee he won't get injured. They've also used terms like "he is a work in progress."

It would not surprise me if he were to need TJ in the next year or two.

He will have a limited work load in 2025. Maybe the Dodgers are going to a 6-Man rotation.

Tksymm7 said:

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And there's the Sasaki to Dodgers deal. Weird part is idk where he fits into their rotation at all lol.

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They'll just leverage the 60IL.

Quote:

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Their rotation mix now includes Sasaki, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and others. There are definitely workload concerns with just about everyone in that group, but it's an absurd amount of talent on a pitch-for-pitch basis.

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Glasnow: 134.0 IP
Snell: 104.0 IP
Yamamoto: 90.0 IP
May: 48.0 IP
Gonsolin: DNP
Ohtani: DNP

Sasaki - If anything like Yamamoto, they may try to keep him under 100IP.

They have a bunch of young guys, but we'll see.

So, I think the Dodgers, Mets, and everyone else have different views of what is important.

The Dodgers owner group wants to win Championships. There is an equity value that comes with winning Championships that they prioritize. The team will have greater value over time. The Dodgers are more like Real Estate. It isn't a liquid asset, but it is sure to grow over time.

Cohen needs to feed his ego and has a chip on his shoulder. Additionally, everyone loves a winner. If he wants a larger fan base in NY... he needs to win. And win Championships. In his mind, the worth of the Mets depends on flipping Yankee fans.

The rest of the league looks at it more like a traditional business. If the Rangers street value goes from $1B to $3B, it isn't like Davis can sell off pieces to capture that amount. If he can't cash-flow... a $3B house isn't of much worth.

Many owners are leveraged in their ownership of the team. They don't own it outright and there is debt associated with it. Some look at a Sports Franchise as a status or have it because it has been in the family.

There are many Padres fans that believe the current brothers who have ownership stake is more interested in the Dodgers winning more Championships than the Padres, while the widowed wife and her late-husband wanted Padres Championships.

FanFest Autos announced-19 players you'd expect. Not listed Duran, Harris, and Foscue from the position players on the 40... Walcott will be there along with Rocker and Leiter.

Pudge, Andrus, and Kinsler. And Bochy.

alvtimes said:

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Leclerc signs with A's…… as crazy as he made me…. and I hate to say it I dont think the Rangers win the World Series without his playoff run.

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We most definitely do not. I remember how bad he was in the regular season but turned up big time come playoffs

And if you want to win a bar bet - the longest tenured Ranger on the active roster as of today now that LaClerc is gone?

Leody Taveras - made opening day roster in 2020. He was up and down through 2020 and 2021.

Right behind him is Adolis Garcia, who had 6 at bats in 2020. He was DFA's in 2021 but invited back as a non-roster invitee to spring training. He made the All Star team that year and the rest is history.

Those are the only two Rangers who played in 2020 who are still on the roster.

In 2021, the only other guys who played for the Rangers at all who are still on the roster are Dane Dunning and Jonah Heim.

What a rebuild.