I know this is long. Take it or leave it.


Our Pitching situation. We have 22 P on the 40.

Tier 1 - SP (3)
deGrom, Mahle, and Bradford are likely set for the rotation
deGrom - As good as any ToTR/Ace SP. Unreliably fragile. Who knows?!
Mahle - Solid mid-rotation guy. Coming off TJ. Probably 125-150 IP.
Bradford - Solid mid-rotation guy potential. Coming off 56 & 76 IP. Hope for 125-150 IP.

Tier 2 - SP (2)
I'd rate these as Innings guys.
Jon Gray - Anywhere from a #2-3. Injury risk. Avg 134.0 IP over the past 4 seasons(536.1 IP). 4.28 ERA over those 4 years. Would he be the most healthy SP on the team? 150-175 IP?!
Dunning - He has actually avg 134.5 IP/Yr (538.2 IP) over the past 4 seasons. 4.38 ERA over those 4 years.


Hopefuls going into Spring Training (2)
Rocker Kumar (25.012) - #2 Rangers Prospect
Jack Leiter (24.227) - #4 Rangers Prospect

Bottom-Feeders. (2)
These guys seem to be at the end of their tenure with the Rangers, however the reality is... this is likely when they start putting it together. Something I've probably said about them for the past 3 years.
Owen White (25.117)
Cole Winn (25.009)

That's 9 SP hopefuls.
I think CY will try to add a solid Innings guy that will get you 150-175 IP at about 4.00-4.25 ERA.
A guy like Sasaki, while unlikely, could be attracted to a sure rotation spot, with IP being managed. I think there are a few other Posted guys that could be brought in.

Relief (4)
I think we're committed to these guys financially.
Latz (L) - 46G, 3.71, 43.2 IP, 40K (8.2 SO9), 27 BB (5.6BB9)
Sborz - Tremendous upside. Often injured. Had right shoulder surgery (throwing arm) on Nov 13.
Curvelo (24) - RP signed a few weeks ago on a MLB deal
Contreras (25) - RP picked up on Waivers after the '24 season


"What do do with" guys from 2024:
GAnderson (27) - 23G, 8.10, 26.2 IP <- I think we all lost patience with his inability.
Garabito (28) - 18G, 4.78, 26.1 IP <- Has been used as a dumping guy to strap with a lost game.
Festa (31) - 18G, 4.37, 22.2 IP <- No clue what we're doing with him.
Pennington (26-L) - 15G, 3.12, 17.1 IP, 16 SO <- I get it... guys can surprise you.
D Robert (29) - 4G, 3.18, 5.2 IP <- I think he was just a roster filler.

On the 40:
Teodo (23) - #6 Rangers Prospect. Projected 2025. I'd keep an eye on him. Could be 6th SP or middle-reliever out of ST.
Corniell (21) - #15 Rangers Prospect. Projected 2025. Could begin as a RP and grow into SP, as well.
Church (23-AAA) - RP
Santos (22) - #8 Rangers Prospect. Projected 2026


Others not on 40:
Mitch Bratt (21-AA) - #18 Rangers Prospect. Projected 2025. Likely injury replacement
Kohl Drake (24-AA) - #21 Rangers Prospect. Projected 2025. Likely injury replacement
Josh Stephan (23-AA) - #25 Rangers Prospect. Projected 2025. Likely injury replacement
Dane Acker (25-AA) - #27 Rangers Prospect. Projected 2025. Middle reliever
Skylar Hales (23-AA-RP) - - #28 Rangers Prospect. Projected 2025. Possible future Closer

Of 13 spots
5 SP - deGrom, Mahle, Bradford, Dunning, Gray
8 RP - Latz, Curvelo, Contreras
60IL - Sborz

That's 5 spots left to fill, aside from improving the 8.
We need a Closer, Setup guy, and another RP (Church or Hales?).
The last 2 spots will be a SP and a middle-releiver guy (Garabito?).

It won't be the starting rotation on opening day imo, but a rotation of deGrom, Mahle, Bradford, Dunning and Gray is gross, and not in the good way.

I've been a huge Teodo fan for a long time. I think he opens the season at Texas, barring injuries.

fc2112 said:

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I've been a huge Teodo fan for a long time. I think he opens the season at Texas, barring injuries.

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Probably the only way he makes the team this year is as a reliever, and the organization seems pretty adamant about him staying a starter. I think it's more likely that he starts in AAA and if he's pitching lights-out, he'll get called up at some point.

I don't disagree with you...

Having said that... if Teodo makes the rotation coming out of ST... then we either:
Whiffed on every possible SP FA like Gibson, Lynn, et al... and Sasaki... and Rocker and Leiter... and our rotation is going to SUCK.

or

Teodo will project to be RoY and we'll have ourselves a gem.

Could go either way. If he makes it as a RP, IMO, it will be a long-reliever and we'll look to get 3-4 IP... maybe once+ through the lineup. Maybe an "Opener?!" And then work him towards deeper appearances.

If you were the Astros, what would be a reasonable offer? I haven't been keeping up, but I thought they had decided to move on rather than throw money at Bregman.

The Astros have offered Alex Bregman “around” six years $156M, but he wants a deal closer to $200M, per @brianmctaggart pic.twitter.com/ckTyZ8v0fw

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) December 5, 2024

I'm not sure what I would offer Bregman if I were them, but that's pretty much an offer you know he won't accept.

The question is... do they sign Bregman in a vacuum without regard to anything else, or what constraints will govern the signing. Like Monty and Eovaldi.

This is the problem teams have with on-going success it almost always lead to rebuilds/dips.

Astros are $12.8M below the CBT Cap for 2025 assuming certain Arb values, based on COTS. They are substantially below for 2026 (maybe $90M?!), but Framber and Tucker are FAs that will need consideration.

Once you lock in with CBT, it becomes increasingly problematic to get out.

If they look to keep Bregman, then they have to commit to Framber and Tucker.

If they let Bregman go, then the best path is to trade Framber and Tucker for emerging prospects.

They don't have the prospect depth the fill from within, as it is. They don't have the CBT Cap to keep what they have.

The Astros were successful for many years by not over paying for players and locking players up during their prime for a decent price. I would not expect the Astros to give Bregman the deal he is looking for but lately Crane has been willing to overpay so who knows.

The question is whether they willing to try and squeeze a couple more years at another ring or are they willing to start a re-build.

I want them to go all in as this will further weaken the overall system and make it a much lengthier path back to relevancy.

Work with a lot of Astros fans and they really want Bregman back even if he will be declining. They want them to be classy and reward him for what he has done but they know their ownership group is lacking in class.

Another aspect is that they've been able to avoid a rebuild because they were so great at developing players. They could afford to let guys walk because they had a guy waiting that could produce similar results for very cheap. The question is do they still have those kinda guys in the system?

I'd be interested in your supporting evidence for that, because my perception they brought in a ton of talent and the law of statistics showed itself.

There is an old coaching adage that says, "I'm a much better coach with better talent."

The tanking the Astros did from '11-13 had them with 3 100+ Loss seasons. And in '14, they had a 92L season (#5 pick in '15).

In 2010 and 2011, they sold off every MLB capable player for prospects. IIRC, Springer, their 1.8 pick in 2010 was held bad giving the team an extra year of control.

'15 - 1.2 Bregman (Comp for not signing Aiken in '14)
'15 - 1.5 Kyle Tucker
'15 - 1.37 Daz Cameron

'14 - 1.1 Aiken
'14 - 1.37 Derek Fisher

'13 1.1 Mark Appel

'12 1.1 Carlos Correa
'12 1s.41 McCullers

'11 1.11 Springer

'10 1.8 DeShields
'10 1.19 Foltynoski
'10 1s.33 Kvasnicka

If you look at 3 years development and 6 years team control, then you're looking about about 9 years 2013 to 2022. WS in 2022 swept in the playoffs in 2024... one of the worst farms in MLB. 1 T100 Prospects #89 Jacob Melton (24)... LOL

Their 3B replacement for Bregman hasn't convinced them to let Bregman go.

Rebuild 2025.

I think they did a good job... not great.

DallasAg 94 said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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...
I think we NEED:

2nd C
3rd/4th OF
RHB/DH

1 Innings eating SP <- Heaney/Lorenzen type
1 depth/risk guy <- Mahle/Urena type
1 Swing SP/RP <- Heaney/Urena type

1 8th RP
1 Closer

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Check. $5.75M: Higashioka (C)

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Check. Minor League deal. One retread down.

Rangers Sign Adrian Houser To Minors Contract

Quote:

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8 Total guys for $59M

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I think many position players will wait until Soto is resolved. That will allow the losing teams a chance to bid on those available. Bregman as an example wouldn't likely sign until the Yankees know more about Soto.

On the SP front, I think Sasaki is going to slow things down. Not from a cost perspective, but roster spot. While unlikely the Rangers sign him, he would be a big piece of the rotation and impact how you approach the other roles. I think it is LAD, SDP, then Texas 3rd... maybe lower.

DBacks are shopping Monty. I'd be interested in how much money the DBacks are willing to eat.
Sasaki @ League Min
Monty @ $10-15M for 1 yr
Would settle our rotation.

Trade for Seiya Suzuki (Cubs-OF) and take his 2yr/$19M per

Only Bullpen pieces after that.

Soto to the Mets, $765 over15 years. Wow

Oh my gosh.

No deferred money. Can go to $800MM with incentives.

Holy cow, how far over the luxury tax are these guys?

Mets have something like 150M coming off the books this offseason

COTS has been updated. They are $2.5M below.

No longer paying Scherzer nor Verlander.

Three quarters of a billion dollars.

O. M. G.

I really believe that the next CBA will be UGLY, but I also think contracts like this are perfect evidence of the gap continuing to widen across baseball. Soto is getting paid 50+ a year for 15 effing years, while a majority of free agents will struggle to get signed by spring training. I truly believe we are headed towards a salary floor and hard cap for baseball, and it will be the center of negotiations in the CBA.

I don't know... I think the Soto contract shows what Owners have available to spend and are willing to spend it.

When Hicks owned the Stars, he led a lock-out of small market teams. Not because Dallas was a small market, but because he couldn't control himself.

He spent what he needed to get a Stanley Cup. With the ASG committed to Dallas, he didn't care to piss off the Stars fans because he knew the STHs would be loyal to get ASG tickets.

He went with a hard cap and as a result there was a lock out. Once play resumed he hid behind the hard cap. In the end, he over leveraged himself buying the Rangers, Stars, and then Liverpool... I think when the Stars fans dumped him the financial burden grew. He also pissed off Rangers fans where Jim Lites wanted to turn the baseball experience from a laid back family event into a NBA experience.

The Stars STH stood loyal for a year and then dumped the Stars. They went from a 2-3 year wait to get season tickets... to pestering former holders that the new owner was different.

Back to baseball... there are teams like Tampa, Florida, KC, Milw, Minn, and Oakland/LV that have their market. Owners are making a killing all while maintaining low payroll. They get extra draft picks and money from the league. They are addicted to the welfare and unwilling to enter the spending market for fear of losing their welfare.

IMO, in baseball, they've done everything you could imagine to create an equal outcome. The deferred comp is an issue, but let's see when the bill is due, how that turns out. That's the one thing I think needs to be addressed.

He's one guy though, and my point is that you have the 1% getting paid literally 3/4 of a billion, while teams like the A's, Marlins, Rays etc. still do not pay anyone. It would really would behoove 99% of the players for a salary floor. Also, I think you are going to see a serious push from the majority of owners for the cap after watching the Dodgers load up and skirt the system etc. Just my opinion of course.

bmac_aggie18 said:

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The fans will be the ones paying this…hello increased ticket costs, concessions, parking & literally everything else

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To be fair, fans want to come see a team with Soto on it. It's not like the price increase won't be warranted.

I'm not sure that Soto has that much of a drawing power. This will be his fourth team and he wasn't even the biggest name on his prior team. I'm not going out of my way to see a Mets game because Soto is playing, but maybe that's just me.

Soto, my dream is over.

But we signed Higgy, so we got that going for us . . . which is nice

The Mets fans are dying for something to be positive about though lol. Maybe they don't like him that much because he played for the team across town or maybe they love him even more because they can say he chose them over the Yankees. They are as tortured a fan base as any lol.