It's official; Roki Sasaki will be posted over the winter and be a free agent.

Yeah I think it would need to be the equivalent of a kid not wanting to go to the same college as his dad even though he's always been a big fan, just because he wants to be his own man.

It definitely happens, but the Dodgers would have to be considered the heavy favorite with probably the Mariners number two.

Evan makes clear that it is a long shot. But he does give some of the details of the posting process if you are interested in that.

Could the Rangers land Roki Sasaki? Don’t overlook Chris Young’s ability to sell vision. https://t.co/Zc6ZzIF2Rf

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) November 9, 2024

So the Fan's Choice 20 game plan for 2025 does not include Opening Day (separate presale) and you have to buy 7 C games instead of 4. Boo!

Not sure if Evan includes it... but, if they post him before 12/2, he can only sign for 2024 pool money. Dodgers have the most with $2.5M or so.

If posted after 12/15... only 2025 Pool money., since 2024 end date is 12/15.

If posted between those dates, it could be 2024 OR 2025.

We probably aren't going to get Sasaki, but I want them to throw their hat in the ring and give it their best shot.

He would likely make the Dodgers' rotation, but keep in mind, the Dodgers have a ton of guys coming back... lots of repeat-injury guys... and you are going to have to manage Sasaki's IP.

Yamamoto...
Ohtani... coming back from TJ plus his recent shoulder issue.
Glasgow, Stone,
May, Consoling

They will take him if they can get him, but it becomes a roster numbers issue.

He is supposed to be one of the best SPs... I'd like him as a Ranger... he is likely a Dodger, but the roster thing is IMO... the best hope.

DallasAg 94 said:

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Not sure if Evan includes it... but, if they post him before 12/2, he can only sign for 2024 pool money. Dodgers have the most with $2.5M or so.

If posted after 12/15... only 2025 Pool money., since 2024 end date is 12/15.

If posted between those dates, it could be 2024 OR 2025.

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He kind of assumes it'll be 2025 money and that teams have little 2024 money left:

"At this point, teams have pennies left in their 2024 pools. The 2025 pools, into which teams can dip, can be accessed after Jan. 15. Which is convenient, because if, say, it takes Chiba Lotte and MLB about three weeks to work through all the complicated paperwork and details related to posting, he would get posted right around Dec. 1. Under the system, he'd have 45 days to negotiate with MLB teams. Do the math. The conclusion of the 45-day period and the opening of the new international pools will just coincidentally coincide.

As for the pools, teams are assigned maximum caps. They range from $5.1 to $7.55 million. The Rangers will have $6.26 million, along with 11 other teams, to spend. They are right in the middle. He would also have to sign a uniform minor league contract out of the gate. In other words, there isn't any wiggle room."

Scrolling through twitter/X recently I have several put the Padres (and Yu Darvish) in the mix, and of course the Dodgers. The Dodgers are the team to beat, but don't rule out the Padres or the Mariners. I'd say everyone else is longshot. Maybe the Yankees are above "longshot" status, but if they blow their wad on Soto, the may not have much left, even though they seemingly have an endless amount of $$$.

Dodgers are favored for Sasaki but hearing early word Padres could have a shot (Darvish connection). VERY early odds* (*not to be used for betting purposes)

Dodgers 1-5 (83 percent)
Padres 9-1 (10 percent)
The Field 15-1 (7 percent)

(The Field is everyone else) https://t.co/yNFLmy8F62

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 11, 2024

No ROY for Langford. Not a finalist. Got it going too late in the season on an underperforming team I guess.

I thought the rookies were pretty average across the board this year. I hope Colton Cowser wins it, but even he had a very up and down, typical rookie season. If I had to bet on guys moving forward, Cowser and Langford would be ones I could see continuing to get better and better.

And there it is...

Rangers transactions for Tuesday:

-INF Max Acosta contract selected from Frisco
-RHP Winston Santos contract selected from Frisco
-RHP Emiliano Teodo contract selected from Frisco
-RHP Carson Coleman returned to New York-AL

The Rangers have 39 players on their 40-man roster.

— Texas Rangers PR (@TXRangersPR) November 19, 2024

I never doubted them adding any of those.

Totally selfish post incoming, but I'm silently pulling for Blaine Crim to get picked in the R5 draft, just so Jeff Wilson et al will shut up about him.

If you are wondering who might vulnerable, here is a few snips of what Evan had to say:

"The club once again decided to leave a couple of potentially intriguing pitchers off the 40, though: Right-handers Josh Stephan of Grand Prairie and Dane Acker. Both spent the 2024 season at Double-A Frisco. Stephan missed a significant portion of the year with elbow issues, but returned to put together a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League. Acker, who had missed most of the previous two seasons with injuries, pitched 97.1 innings at Frisco and had a strong finish as a multi-inning reliever.
It means the Rangers could lose either to a team willing to use a roster spot on them and keep them on the major league roster for the entire season.

Other notable players who would be eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft include left-hander Bryan Magdaleno, first basemen Blaine Crim and first baseman/outfielder Abilmelec Ortiz."

Rangers roster moves https://t.co/cuJNbAqaiU

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) November 19, 2024

He also says nothing new on the tv situation:

No updates on TV yet. I know this question is foremost on folks' minds. Promise to get you something as soon as definitive entity is formed. As said earlier, hoping - hoping - for resolution by Jan. 1 https://t.co/GyM4yUTbpq

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) November 19, 2024

Dunning and Sborz agreed to terms yesterday. Dunning took a pay cut.

Confirming this report from the Arbiter of Arbitration moves, the esteemed Dr. Heyman. Relatively speaking, it's almost 20% cut in base salary. Massive cut. But at $2.66 mm Dunning, all-time innings leader at Globe Life Field, is a value. https://t.co/4PvzC6SamM

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) November 22, 2024

Snell to the Dodgers for 5x182!

ETA: I feel like this takes Sasaki off the table, and the Padres are the direction to look.

yikes

will be interesting to see how their rotation works out if everyone is healthy

I don't think it impacts their interest in Sasaki... although it could signal Sasaki's interest in SDP.

I've read Darvish is like a 2nd pitching coach to him and has a strong relationship with him. You'd think everything we don't like about California... taxes, congestion... over reaching Gov... plays right into Tokyo.

With SDP and LAD right there... he could go either way

Reason I say I think Dodgers might not be the favorite anymore is because this is what the Dodgers rotation looks like now:

Glasnow
Snell
Yamamota
Ohtani
Gonsolin

They also still have Walker Buehler who seemed to have found something in the post season, and I doubt he'll want to be relegated to the bullpen full-time. They could maybe trade one or both of Gonsolin/Buehler, but idk.

Don't they also have a couple of other starters that missed 2024 but should be ready for 2025?

IMO, Sasaki isn't about 2025... it is about the following 5 years. It is also about him being one of the best SP out of Japan... and him NOT going to SDP.

Nippon plays 6 days/wk and Sasaki is used to throwing in a 6 man rotation. He may get you to 150 IP, but Yamamoto went only 90.0 IP for the LAD in 2025.

They are more than loaded and let Buehler walk without a QO. What will prohibit the LAD is limit to 40 and having to carry 60IL during the offseason.


Glasnow (30): 22GS, 3.49 ERA, 134.0 IP - $32M
Snell (32) - $32M
Yamamoto (25): 18GS, 3.00 ERA, 90.0 IP
Ohtani : DNP
Gonsolin (30): DNP <-controlled through 2026 Career 3.19ERA in 71 GS
-
Stone (25): 25GS, 3.53 ERA, 140.1 IP - Serf2
Miller (25): 13GS, 8.52, 56.0 IP - Serf2
Knack (26): 12GS, 3.65, 69.9 IP, 15G - Serf1
River Ryan (25): 4GS, 1.33 ERA, 20.1 IP - Serf1

There is a ton of risk with Glasnow, Ohtani, and Gonsoli... and limited high IP from Yamamoto.

Snell is also an injury concern, but like deGrom... you don't have most of those pitchers in order to make the playoffs... you have them for the playoffs.

I could see the Dodgers being pretty active once again regarding their rotation, i.e. trading and moving pieces.

You can never have enough pitching.

I like Snell signing early.

Next will likely be Soto. SDP and NYM will panic and offer him a ton. I think the NYM win that one.

NYY and BoSox will get itchy... BoSox will sign Eovaldi... NYY Burnes.

That leaves Fried back to Atlanta.

Flaherty will then go to Boston.

Mets will keep Alonso and then Bregman will ultimately end up in Houston.

Dodgers will overpay for Teoscar because the Mets got Soto and the SDP will be in the mix.

After that... who knows.

Buehler is a FA