He's definitely not a star like Judge, Ohtani, Trout in his prime etc., but he's absolutely one of if not the best pure hitter in baseball. His command of the strike zone is second to none.

Sasaki has officially been posted. I wonder if the Mets make a huge push now.

Not much of a push they can make. They have 6.2M in IFA monies, and 5M is allocated for the #2 IFA prospect, Elian Pena.

Tksymm7 said:

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He's definitely not a star like Judge, Ohtani, Trout in his prime etc., but he's absolutely one of if not the best pure hitter in baseball. His command of the strike zone is second to none.

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My thing is at 26 years old they're already saying he's below average defender with below average speed. How that ages out in 5…10…15 years is worrying for sure

Yeah I meant like a pitch more than a financial push. Selling the future type of thing.

This was my thought as well, and I'm a Mets fan. Sure I'm happy to have him, but I have watched many games of his and he really has inly a single above average tool. People are forgetting a big part of the contract is an opt out after 5 years. The Mets pretty much control that unless Soto decides he doesn't want to opt out.

They can still trade for up to 60% (or something like that) of their allocated Int'l Pool money.

I think NY was a long-shot based on geography, to start wtih. NYM traded the rest of their Int'l Pool 2024 money to Tampa. Some speculated they had held on to it, in the event Sasaki was posted before 12/2, which would have fallen in the 2024 Pool year.

Agree, think he's a long shot. He does have the same agent as Kodai Senga, but so did Yamamoto. I think his likely landing spot is SD.

I got your point.

I thought there was a requirement for teams to spend a % of their gate receipts, in order to get the welfare and Comp picks.

Having said that... Hicks did what most teams do, now. He created an LLC and isolated all revenue. The parking revenue was sliced off. The Food & Beverage money is now isolated.

I agree teams should have a floor, but does that really help?

According to this, Tampa brings in $301M. COTS says they have a $99M payroll.

Some owners are in it to Win, some to make money, some for the clout, and some for fun.

Having teams like Tampa and Oakland spending more for the sake of allocation will only drive up the salaries for other teams. Teams in larger markets can further increase prices and you are just shifting things.

Agreed. These are just my observations and opinions. I could be wrong.

The outcome for Hicks was that owners who were smarter than him beat his ass. He won because he had the money to outspend others to make up for mistakes. With the hard cap, it meant his stupidity would limit his ability to put a winning product on the ice.

CBT does that for teams adhering to the intent of CBT. You pay a penalty to the other teams for going over and if you have players like deGrom chewing up salary, you pay for the mistakes in limited available spending.

Tampa Bay is an outlier though. They win regardless of what they spend. Better examples are Pittsburgh and Oakland. How would MLB even go about a cap, with all of the massive long term contracts out there?

ETA: you also have guaranteed contracts that would be a problem. I just don't see a cap or floor without some serious damage being done to the game (ie strike of a full season)

I read where Darvish is like a 2nd pitching coach for him and that Darvish lobbied the Marines to Post him last year. I agree SDP is likely his landing spot.

LAD are obviously in the mix, with Yamamoto and Ohtani. One article I read indicated the noise and endorsements for Ohtani are so loud that Yamamoto is hindered by it.

Both are Left Coast, as well.

I put Texas in the Top5... maybe 3rd. We have Pool money and could add additional money by trade. I think the Rangers could go $10.5/11M. AFAIK, MLB money isn't the gating factor, though.

I think Tampa and Oak are similar. Pitt is different for sure.

Pitt is a proud sports town. Steelers, Penguins, and Pirates all have long histories and star quality players of past. There is a bigger element of having a star player and they hang on to them too long.

Tampa and Oak get Comp picks and trade off any and all stars without fan negativity. Tampa is better at it than Oak.

I was really hoping the last CBA would incorporate an international draft.

Just for conversation, what does the board feel a fair floor and cap is?

I think there's a real possibility that we could miss a huge chunk of the season following the next CBA negotiations. Baseball has changed and is changing a ton, and needs to continue changing to stay afloat imo, so I could see extremely ugly CBA negotiations next go around.

As of today the A's are the only team under 75 million; in fact, everyone else is basically at 85+. So maybe somewhere between 75-100 million for the floor. On the other side the Mets and Yankees are both over 300, and everyone else is essentially at 250 or less. I would say the ceiling doesn't need to be a penny over 250 to begin, so maybe 225-250.

Tksymm7 said:

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I think there's a real possibility that we could miss a huge chunk of the season following the next CBA negotiations. Baseball has changed and is changing a ton, and needs to continue changing to stay afloat imo, so I could see extremely ugly CBA negotiations next go around.

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I agree with you here, and I have zero confidence in either Manfred or Clark.

Rangers signed Adrian Houser (31, RHP) to a minor league contract w an invitation to ST.

And the whole world yawned.

DallasAg 94 said:

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I think many position players will wait until Soto is resolved. That will allow the losing teams a chance to bid on those available. Bregman as an example wouldn't likely sign until the Yankees know more about Soto.

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Milestone passed. Teams are already starting to panic.

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On the SP front, I think Sasaki is going to slow things down. Not from a cost perspective, but roster spot. While unlikely the Rangers sign him, he would be a big piece of the rotation and impact how you approach the other roles. I think it is LAD, SDP, then Texas 3rd... maybe lower.

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Sasaki officially posted. Tons of Ps coming off the boards. Probably more a result of Soto than Sasaki. He won't sign until Jan 15+, but his landing will come into focus quickly, I'd think. 3-5 teams.

Mets and Dodgers appear to be the measuring stick.

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DBacks are shopping Monty. I'd be interested in how much money the DBacks are willing to eat.
Sasaki @ League Min
Monty @ $10-15M for 1 yr
Would settle our rotation.

Trade for Seiya Suzuki (Cubs-OF) and take his 2yr/$19M per

Only Bullpen pieces after that

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Owners meetings. Rule V draft... if panic continues, there will be a flurry of signings over the next couple weeks with everyone wanting to make sure they have a seat at the Big Boy table.

Old news. You may have me hidden.

https://texags.com/forums/53/topics/3503736/replies/69244724

so you're saying there's a chance...

The Draft Lottery will happen tonight at 4:30pm and will determine the order in which clubs will make the top six selections of the 2025 MLB Draft.

The Texas Rangers' odds of receiving the top overall selection in the 2025 Draft are 2.45%.

— Abby Jones (@_abigaiiiil) December 10, 2024

Tksymm7 said:

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Better than 0

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For sure. I didn't save the tweet, but when you look at the odds for all of the teams, there are 7 or 8 teams with lower chances than the Rangers. There was an image of all of potential teams and their odds that I saw earlier when I was scrolling through.

Top 2 gives us a chance for Lord Tubbington to make his way into a Rangers Jersey. Not sure if it's just media driven, but Ethan Holliday is being pushed as the number 1 draft prospect.

He's a legit ball player, but there's absolutely some media hype around him because of his daddy and his older brother and their entire story.

In addition to what Tksymm7 has said... he lives in Stillwater and his uncle is the Head Baseball Coach at OkieSt and has been for the past 11 years.

Jackson made his MLB debut less than 2 years after graduating HS. I think they likely have a very high floor. It would be my expectation that the upside is largely being tapped based on the pedigree. What the ceiling is, I have no idea on either.

Bobby Witt Jr, as an example, would be my Comp.

From here:

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22.5 percent -- Rockies (.377)
22.5 -- Marlins (.383)
18 -- Angels (.389)
10.2 -- Nationals (.438)
7.5 -- Blue Jays (.457)
5.3 -- Pirates (.469)
3.7 -- Reds (.475)
2.5 -- Rangers (.481)
1.9 -- Giants (.494)
1.5 -- Rays (.494)
1.2 -- Red Sox (.500)
1.1 -- Twins (.506)
0.8 -- Cardinals (.512)
0.7 -- Cubs (.512)
0.5 -- Mariners (.525)
0.3 -- D-backs (.549)
0.0 -- White Sox (.253 ineligible for lottery pick)
0.0 -- A's (.426 ineligible for lottery pick)

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Would be nice to move up from 10th.

I like Holliday and of course LaViolette... after that, I want a college position player.

Much will depend on if Leiter and Rocker land in the rotation. If both struggle, definitely a college position player. However, if one or both show signs of success at the MLB level... I *could* take the risk of a P.

Ps have shown too risky for a Rangers T5-10 pick, IMO. We just don't do P well.

Looks like the losers on the Soto Sweepstakes (BoSox, Yanks, and BJs) will be decided by Max Fried on Thurs.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/max-fried-will-reportedly-choose-destination-in-coming-days.html

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Fried is expected to pick his next club by Thursday, with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays presented as the frontrunners. ... The Rangers are mentioned as a possibility for Fried but that's depicted as more of a long shot

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early prediction was $26M per:

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could land a six-year deal with a $156MM guarantee, though it's possible that Fried's earning power has jumped

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I think the Rangers could afford it, but just don't see it. He'd add some depth (in terms of innings and health). He's gone 165 IP in 4 of the last 5 full seasons and a 3.07 ERA.
deGrom, Fried, Mahle, Bradford
it'd make for a good regular season rotation, but we'd have to still be in the mix mid-season, IMO, to pick up a SP. Meanwhile, we'd be at/over the CBT.

As someone who paid CBT, I believe it would cost us our 2nd and 5th Draft picks in '25... AND $1M in 2026 Int'l Pool money.

Reading that Nolan Arenado is peacefully looking at a trade from the Cards since they're rebuilding. Think he's someone we could be looking at as a RHB? He's owed $74M over 3 years and past his prime so I'd assume STL would have to eat some of that

Rangers are picking 12th.

And Fried to the freakin Yankees

Well that didn't go well lol. But not as bad the white sox though, sheesh.

So now we get to see Laviolette with the Angels...

That is shocking as thought , for sure, he was gone.