***** 2026 Spurs Off-Season Thread *****

95,190 Views | 1321 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by jteagle
Deluxe
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Thunder thoughts after the Dort move:

The series of moves to dodge the second apron in 26-27 is now complete (Dort, Wiggins and Joe trades). With SGA's raise and Cason's likely extension, it will be almost impossible to avoid the second apron in 27-28 and possibly a few years after that. It didn't make sense to start the clock this year.

Aside from the second apron, I still think it made sense for OKC and Dort to go their separate ways. Dort signed with Rich Paul, is 27 years old and wants a payday that the Thunder can't give him. He was passed by Cason and Ajay in the pecking order this year. One of those two will be starting alongside SGA/Dub next year and the other will be first off the bench. Add in Caruso, McCain, Topic and Stirtz and there's not enough minutes to go around.

There's some matchups where we'll miss Lu (i.e. Lakers/Luka) but over all I think he's replaceable. He was virtually unplayable against the Spurs. I also think one lesson for OKC the last couple years is that they need creators alongside the double bigs. And they need the double bigs because they're kinda small otherwise. SGA/Dub plus Lu plus double bigs is way too clunky and puts way too much pressure on SGA/Dub. The Spurs feasted on that lineup in the WCF.

The Thunder played 21 non-playoff games in 25-26 without Ajay and Dub and went roughly .500 in those games. They need ways to create offense outside of SGA and, outside of those two, the Thunder can get very stagnant very quickly. Hence they were F'd when they both went down. They need to allocate more minutes to guys who can create. Lu just doesn't fit that profile. I think the Thunder will experiment more this year with Topic, McCain and Stirtz, as well as giving Cason more liberty to generate offense alongside SGA/Dub. SGA will be off the ball (on the wing) alot more. They can't find themselves with their pants down again like they did in games 4-7 of the WCF.

Agree with previous posts on Mara and why I thought it would have been idiot-maxxing to trade up for him. I didn't mind taking him at 12 given how the board shook out, but he's a project. He's probably not playable in the playoffs this year. I think he has some promise. Great feel for the game. Great passer. Can't teach his reach. But he's slow, not properly conditioned and doesn't have great instincts on defense. I think he will be phased in very slowly this year. Luckily Hart re-signed on such a team-friendly deal. I think the Thunder will have no choice but to bring him back in 27-28. Hopefully Sorber or Mara can make Hart expendable after that.
LawHall88
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Deluxe
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Considering there wasn't a huge market of teams that could absorb each guy without sending back any salary, I think Presti did about as well as he could have.
Guitarsoup
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Thunder are still going to be very good, but I feel like they didn't do much about their wing size and I think PF is still kind of questionable, especially in light of the size and athleticism the Spurs added.

I see the rotation being:

SGA - Ajay - Topic (SGA is 6'4.5, Ajay 6'3 and Topic almost 6'6.)
Cason - McCain - Stirtz (all three of these guys are 6'2.5" or smaller)
JDub - Caruso (both 6'4.5")
Chet - JWill - Kenrich
Hart - Sorber - Mara

I loved Sorber in the draft last year, but foot surgery followed by a torn ACL for a 265lb big is a rough start to a career. I think Mara is WAY too slow. His passing is nice, but I think he gets played off the court.

Topic is the only guy from PG-SF that is at least 6'5.0" tall. There's a lot of talent there, but that is a very short roster. Caruso and JDub play over their size, but Caruso is still thin.

Their top 8 guys are still fantastic, but I think the defense and toughness will drop a bit, but the offense may improve.

The real interesting thing coming up is how they handle Ajay+Cason extensions. Both should be up for 20-25M. Right now, OKC only has 2M in 2nd apron space next year, but that is without Kenny Hustle, without Cason Wallace, and without whoever they use for their last roster spot. Plus they have the Denver 1st, the Clippers 1st, and the Spurs 1st.

Presti made some solid moves to salary dump... but he will probably have to do the same next year


Don't know if is is verified, but some of those 2nds are top 55 protected, so essentially fake picks. Not sure if true, though. Either way, OKC has a ridiculous warchest of assets.
jsc8116
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Amy truth to Castle growing a couple inches over the summer?

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1GBc4mgUXL/
Guitarsoup
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jsc8116 said:

Amy truth to Castle growing a couple inches over the summer?

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1GBc4mgUXL/

No, it was from one of those engagement bait AI trash X users.
LawHall88
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2008and1
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Vic being tall enough to get his eyes in the shade was hilarious
Earth Rider
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FTAG 2000 said:

Guitarsoup said:

Guitarsoup said:



Wemby Stoppers




He's so slowwwwww


And a twig.

Nice to see OKC likely miss on a pick.
Earth Rider
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Top 55 protected LOL. To have the cajones for the opposing team to demand that.
Deluxe
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Good post. I think the script that Presti is sticking to is just continual replenishing of higher priced guys with rookie scale guys. In doing so, the fabric of the team can (and will) change and it's hard to make specific/targeted moves to matchup better with rivals (i.e. the Spurs). Unfortunately it's just the way it is in today's NBA. But I'll take our situation over some recent teams that spiked but then got aproned and had to shed quickly without any sort of backfill plan.

In an ideal world, Morez would have slipped to 12 and he would have been 1) a nice PF to play alongside Chet and 2) a nice matchup piece vs the Spurs. Before the Mavs hired May, I think there was a real chance that was going to happen. But May knew who the dog was on that Michigan team. You were out in front of everyone with your Morez hype! I got on board later. The more I learned about thim, the more I thought he was Presti's guy at 12. Oh well.

I do think adjusting the fabric of OKC could have some benefits. I feel like Dort's impact had sort of run its course. I'll always be grateful for his contribution to the rebuild and his role on the championship squad, but I think it was time for OKC to move in a different direction. Times change in the nba. Matchups change. Rivals change. Given how futile the Thunder looked on offense without Ajay and Dub last year... especially against the Spurs who can take away what Chet/Hart do well offensively... they needed to add creators, even if it meant shedding a "matchup-dependent" defensive specialist like Dort.

That's not even mentioning that Dort was going to cost them like $80M this year including the tax lol.
Deluxe
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Guitarsoup - No pressure at all on this but you did some really good analysis this season on Julian (at least I think it was him) and what you thought he would be worth based on market/cap space availability this summer + what you thought would be reasonable for the Spurs to pay him.

I'm kind of wondering the same with Cason Wallace. My guess is they'll on an extension before the season starts, especially now that Lu is officially cleared. But if they don't and he tests (restricted) free agency next summer, do you think there's a long line of teams waiting to pay him $28-30m per year? In general market terms, I think he's probably worth that. But free agency ain't what it used to be and I'm not sure who will have the space, who it would make sense for, etc.
Guitarsoup
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Deluxe said:

Guitarsoup - No pressure at all on this but you did some really good analysis this season on Julian (at least I think it was him) and what you thought he would be worth based on market/cap space availability this summer + what you thought would be reasonable for the Spurs to pay him.

I'm kind of wondering the same with Cason Wallace. My guess is they'll on an extension before the season starts, especially now that Lu is officially cleared. But if they don't and he tests (restricted) free agency next summer, do you think there's a long line of teams waiting to pay him $28-30m per year? In general market terms, I think he's probably worth that. But free agency ain't what it used to be and I'm not sure who will have the space, who it would make sense for, etc.

Wallace is a hard person to comp because he's an All-Defense POA guy that led the league in steals, but also a super low usage guy due to the talent and depth on OKC. If you had him on the Nets, could he be a 18/6 guy? Maybe.

So looking at comparisons, who would you put?

Derrick White starts the 2nd year of a 4y118M contract.
Dyson Daniels starts a 4y100M contract (completely flat 25/year)
Toumani Camara has a 4y81M contract.
Draymond Green had a 4y100M contract
Jaden McDaniels is in the 3rd year of a 5y131M contract
OG Anunoby is on a 5y212 25% max contract.
Jarrett Allen is on a 3y90M
Dillon Brooks is in the last year of a 4y81M contract.

I feel like that 25-30M range should be about right for him, depending on what you think his offense is.

The problem is, that is also probably about right for Ajay Mitchell.

The interesting thing about FA this year is a lot of teams spent more than I expected, but they did it on shorter contracts. Trae Young was the outlier ultrabad contract. Lakers overpaid Austin Reaves so he wouldn't go to Detroit or Brooklyn. Kessler just got 4y130M, which is more than I would pay for him. Coby White got 3y74M. If White is getting 25M/year, it is going to be real hard to convince Cason he is worth less than $25M/year. Ayo Dosunmu got 22M on his 5y112M contract.

I think I want Wallace a lot more than Ayo or Coby. So I think you have to peg him in the 25-30M range. But at the same time, paying a guy that puts up 8/3/2 18% of the cap is rough.


Deluxe
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Yea I think that's all fair. I think a point of contention between Cason and OKC is that Cason contributes his lack off offensive production to his role. But OKC doesn't necessarily want to pay him for hypothetical production. Like you said, he could easily be an 18ppg player on a team like Brooklyn, but it's hard to say for sure and therefore it's hard to be like "sure, you're worth 15-18% of the cap".

I also think it will be tough to pay both Ajay and Cason in the $25-30M range, unless they plan to trade Caruso and Hart. Ideally Sorber and Mara can make Hart expendable but that's not looking so hot at the moment. Even if Sorber/Mara work out ideally and they can trade Hart, it will still be very tight.

If we're paying SGA, Dub, Chet, Cason and Ajay 35/25/25/18/18, but how do we pay McCain, Jaywill and Topic coming due after 27-28? There's part of me that would almost rather the Thunder just pick one between Ajay/Cason, trade the other for picks, and use the $$$ saved to lock-in role players like McCain and Jaywill. I dunno.
Deluxe
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Thanks for humoring me. Back to Spurs talk.
Guitarsoup
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I always thought they overpaid Caruso. He value is hard to gauge because he does play a level of defense against many players that isnt' easy to match. He was the one that shut down Jokic. But he averages 52 games a year and plays under 20mpg.

Caruso gets 12% of the cap. I think that should be going to Ajay.

The problem is that Caruso is only valuable to a team like OKC or SA or Boston that is competing for a title and knows how to position role players to get the most out of him. He was completely wasted in Chicago. You have to have enough talent around him for him to be useful. He also turns 33 around the ASB. That's a big part of the cap going to a kind of situational guy, but they seem to clearly value him over Dort. Could it be that 3y62M of Caruso at age 32/33 is harder to trade?
Deluxe
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Caruso is a tough one for me.

For a young team with alot of cap space that just lost to the Mavs and needed a playoff dog, I think he was easily worth $20M/year.

But for a team that's now been through the playoff grinder a few times and is going to be very limited on $$ going forward, he makes alot less sense. I love me some AC, but not if keeping him comes at the expense of losing Cason or Ajay.

I'm not really sure why Presti gave him 4 years. Maybe there was a handshake agreement before the Giddey trade that OKC would give him the deal he was looking for. You're right that it looks very suspect on the back end.

This could very easily be his last year in OKC. With SGA's raise, Cason's extension and the ability to trade/dump Hart's salary with adequate backfill seems unlikely, I think Caruso will probably be the odd man out. Like Lu, it's possible that by the end of the 26-27 season that his time in OKC will have run its course regardless of the $$.

His trade value and who would want to eat the last 2/$44mm on his deal, knowing that he's in decline and isn't much of a regular season asset, is another question. I think there's some up and coming teams like the Mavs, Grizz and Jazz who might be interested, but no way Presti deals him in the west. I'm also not sure what east teams he'd make sense for. Like you said, maybe Boston? But they've got money problems of their own.

It could end up a situation where we have to attach a few seconds for a team to take his $$.
Guitarsoup
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Face of the league.
Guitarsoup
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I think Caruso has to be moved next summer if you want to keep Wallace and Ajay.

The team I like him for is Charlotte after they got rid of Bridges and Ball, but they are paying Grayson Allen almost the same amount of money that Caruso gets. You can't pay Caruso+Allen 40M/year. Both over 30 with injury issues.

I think back to the Bulls makes sense, too. They have Giddey and Tre Jones at PG, Norm Powell, Okoro, and Buzelis at wing and Essengue, Jalen Smith, Caleb Wilson, and Nic Claxton at big. Caruso really fills a need there for veteran leadership and POA defense.

I think Memphis has too long of a rebuild to pick him up, unless you want to attach picks.

Portland makes some sense because they are so weak on defense with Lillard, Sharpe, and Ja. Jrue, Clingan, Rob, and Camara can't make up for all that, and they are kind of weak on the wings outside of Deni. I'm not much of a believer in Sharpe or Ja as winning players at this point. Plus Jrue is 36.
Guitarsoup
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Guess that means we cut Emmanuel Miller soon.
Big_Time_Timmy_Jim
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I'm really bullish on him. I think with playing time he can crack the rotation. Great depth.
Guitarsoup
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Holy Hell. No one needed him worse, but I have no confidence at all he can fix Sengun, Amen, Fred, or Smart.
TheNotoriousP.I.P.
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Love bringing back DJG, think he has a legit shot to earn a real contract from us
superunknown
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So Kevin Calabro has told the Blazers' new cheap ass owner to go eff himself. Can we get him to replace Tobey until Seattle gets their team?
Guitarsoup
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superunknown said:

So Kevin Calabro has told the Blazers' new cheap ass owner to go eff himself. Can we get him to replace Tobey until Seattle gets their team?

Sounds good to me. Hopefully he doesn't try to bang any players wifes or sisters.
superunknown
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Guitarsoup said:

superunknown said:

So Kevin Calabro has told the Blazers' new cheap ass owner to go eff himself. Can we get him to replace Tobey until Seattle gets their team?

Sounds good to me. Hopefully he doesn't try to bang any players wifes or sisters.


He has to be pushing 70..if he can pull a woman half his age and keep it off Instagram, I'm good
Deluxe
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Guitarsoup said:



Our biggest loss of the offseason
Guitarsoup
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Wemby, Fox, Tobias, and Barnes all working out together
FTAG 2000
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Dang. Chip was available and we couldn't get it done.
Guitarsoup
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Knicks fans cried until they got Brunson on the cover
Guitarsoup
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FTAG 2000 said:

Dang. Chip was available and we couldn't get it done.

I still say he is overrated just because we know him and no one really knows any shooting coaches.
West Texan
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Guitarsoup said:

FTAG 2000 said:

Dang. Chip was available and we couldn't get it done.

I still say he is overrated just because we know him and no one really knows any shooting coaches.


Chip was also basically the first shooting coach that really specialized in it. I think his track record speaks for itself, but I also think there are enough guys out there now (thanks to Chip being the pioneer) that you're still gonna have a more than quality coach working with your players.
Guitarsoup
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West Texan said:

Guitarsoup said:

FTAG 2000 said:

Dang. Chip was available and we couldn't get it done.

I still say he is overrated just because we know him and no one really knows any shooting coaches.


Chip was also basically the first shooting coach that really specialized in it. I think his track record speaks for itself, but I also think there are enough guys out there now (thanks to Chip being the pioneer) that you're still gonna have a more than quality coach working with your players.

I think there were more, but we are familiar with him.

You also look at OKC and their shooting development... Chet's shot has gotten notably worse as time goes on in OKC. Kenny Hustle and SGA's career high were prior to Chip. Cason Wallace has dropped in FG% and 3FG% each year in the league. Caruso shot 41% in his last season in Chicago and 29% this year. JDub has dropped off to under 30% last year, though could have to do with injury. Lu Dort dropped to .385/.344 last year. Last year OKC's shooting dropped a TON in the playoffs and I think they had the lowest 3P% by a winning team in forever.

Chip has obviously helped players like Kawhi and Parker (who never became a good 3pt shooter and never averaged 2 attempts per game after 2005) but I think his impact is vastly overstated.
superunknown
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I think coaching has evolved a ridiculous amount in the last 15-20 years...there used to be maybe 2 or 3 guys on the bench back in the day and now there's a complete 2nd row of coaches behind the bench. I'd guess that's made a definitive go-to "shooting" coach less of a need? It was illuminating to hear how Mitch had been Wemby's development coach along other duties when he wasnt the head guy. Is that how all teams do it? Do assistants have a group they work with consistently or do they work on specific skills? Does this mean Corliss Williamson is our assistant coach of Nasty?

Dang, now I wish there'd be an AMA on reddit from an NBA assistant.
HummingbirdSaltalamacchia
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Only 2 for $8m?
 
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