Double Diamond said:

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What's going to happen? Ice or snow or nothing?

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Models still all over the place it seems. Some say a ton of snow, some say nothing but sleet and freezing rain below the Red River

wangus12 said:

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Double Diamond said:

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What's going to happen? Ice or snow or nothing?

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Models still all over the place it seems. Some say a ton of snow, some say nothing but sleet and freezing rain below the Red River

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Seen a couple local channels saying regardless in Dallas and Tarrant counties stuff won't accumulate unless it's on grass. Surfaces and Roads to warm.

Looks like rain, freezing rain, and sleet as early as the pre-dawn commute tomorrow.

Continuing throughout the day, changing over to sleet/snow, then snow at some point during the day.

2-4" accumulation, more to the north side of the DFW up to the Red River and east/northeast of DFW.

Going to be plenty of precip, just a matter of where the temperature gradients set up. There's going to be some higher totals somewhere - talking like 8-10", more likely north side and out east/northeast towards Longview and Texarkana.

I'd say driving conditions deteriorate throughout the day tomorrow (Thursday) and Friday morning everything is shut down. Stuff melts in the afternoon Friday, but any moisture still laying around - puddles, wet roads, etc. re-freezes Friday night.

Overnight the models started trending back to a colder pattern and keeping snow over the metro area and north. The counties along the Red River have consistently been forecasted for snow, potentially deep bands.

Time to go pick over what's left at the grocery for chili fixin's.

They are reporting the exact opposite on news channels. Delkus and foxbros are all showing the wintry mix line moving further north. SE Dallas county might be nothing but rain.

It'll be interesting to see what actually happens.

riverrataggie said:

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Looks like that wintry mix line has held firm over the metroplex. Single data point, but this morning my house didn't drop below 29 last night here near white rock lake. So a couple degrees warmer than predicted and it was similar night before.

Not sure what this means but it seems to be warmer in actuals so far. Hopefully this doesn't mean it's just an ice event.

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Sounds like there's definitely a line. 25 in Lewisville this morning. It will be interesting to see how it varies around the metroplex.

24 at my house in McKinney.

I do not see how it's been too warm. It hasn't been above 35 in days with nights in the low 20s.

Double Diamond said:

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I do not see how it's been too warm. It hasn't been above 35 in days with nights in the low 20s.

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Depends on where you are. Here in Lakewood it hasn't been below 29 or 30 last night and lower to mid 40's.

Up In Collin county and red river it's likely totally different. Just like one county south of metroplex likely won't see nothing but rain. The atmosphere is wildly different between 60-90 miles with this.

riverrataggie said:

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Looks like that wintry mix line has held firm over the metroplex. Single data point, but this morning my house didn't drop below 29 last night here near white rock lake. So a couple degrees warmer than predicted and it was similar night before.

Not sure what this means but it seems to be warmer in actuals so far. Hopefully this doesn't mean it's just an ice event.

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They've been showing some sharp temp gradients throughout the metro, which will dictate precip types for the main event.

Wild that's where you were on lows. Up here in Prosper we were 18* for a low yesterday, 20 this morning.

That's a nine degree difference over 35ish models from Prosper to White Rock Lake.

Double Diamond said:

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I do not see how it's been too warm. It hasn't been above 35 in days with nights in the low 20s.

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There's differences at the surface on temps, depending where you are.

Also, there's a band of warmer temps aloft. But the models show those getting cooled as the precip falls through them.

FTAG 2000 said:

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riverrataggie said:

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Looks like that wintry mix line has held firm over the metroplex. Single data point, but this morning my house didn't drop below 29 last night here near white rock lake. So a couple degrees warmer than predicted and it was similar night before.

Not sure what this means but it seems to be warmer in actuals so far. Hopefully this doesn't mean it's just an ice event.

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They've been showing some sharp temp gradients throughout the metro, which will dictate precip types for the main event.

Wild that's where you were on lows. Up here in Prosper we were 18* for a low yesterday, 20 this morning.

That's a nine degree difference over 35ish models from Prosper to White Rock Lake.

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That's been my point. As I said in prior post 30-60-90 miles makes a big difference on what you will receive. NTX is a big and vast area. If we are gonna report conditions, make sure you report where you are. That's all

These forecast / models are all over the place and doesn't seem like anyone has a clue. The travel updates came in really light yesterday

Im due in Dallas (Irving) on Friday afternoon.
Have the option to leave tonight (Wednesday) if I have to or early Thursday or just wait until Friday morning. Looks like the worst travel day will be Thursday.. just wondering if worth extra expense to head up tonight vs early Friday am. Traveling with my kids so it's not just me.
I know a lot of people headed up for the cotton bowl also having the same questions. And I'd be likely traveling on 35 so if any icing on 35 with the potential traffic heading up from Austin could create problems also.

27 in Farmers Branch right now. I was working in the yard most of yesterday and I was mad how friggin cold I was. Made me think there's just no way it's gonna be all rain on Thursday

I'm north of McKinney it's been freezing cold.

Yeah I'm on the McKinney-Melissa line and its been low-mid 20s for the low at my house.

Frankly one of the closest buildups I can recall. Typically it's warm before a big storm. This has been really cold.

Will definitely second this for the areas around White Rock. Our outside dog bowl that is tucked up against the house did not freeze over last night for the first time in a couple days. We also got a lot more sun yesterday than they had thought we were going to get so there is definitely an urban heat island effect being created versus the suburbs. Fortunately or unfortunately, my kids private school follows RISD even though we are well inside the 635 loop so I am anticipating some overaction with ours closing. I don't see any surface road south of George Bush seeing any accumulation or freezing from this. Just some on the landscapes.

Will gladly accept being proven wrong but just think I am waking up Friday morning to a clear driveway and clear neighborhood streets.

My last choice would be Friday morning, there's going to be at a minimum freezing of overpasses and bridges in the southern part of the metro, but likely some amount of accumulated precip, so Friday morning should be the worst.

Wednesday evening would be the safest, or else I'd try to be there by Thursday noon before things get worse in the afternoon/evening.

kevmiller said:

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These forecast / models are all over the place and doesn't seem like anyone has a clue. The travel updates came in really light yesterday

Im due in Dallas (Irving) on Friday afternoon.
Have the option to leave tonight (Wednesday) if I have to or early Thursday or just wait until Friday morning. Looks like the worst travel day will be Thursday.. just wondering if worth extra expense to head up tonight vs early Friday am. Traveling with my kids so it's not just me.
I know a lot of people headed up for the cotton bowl also having the same questions. And I'd be likely traveling on 35 so if any icing on 35 with the potential traffic heading up from Austin could create problems also.

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I was landing at 9:30 tonight, cancelled and put on the red eye (2.5 hours later) for some reason. Then called and got changed to landing at 5:00 tonight.

The agent I spoke to said expect most flight to be cancelled after tonight into Friday afternoon. If you can get home today it sounds like that's the best option vs being stuck somewhere until Friday late afternoon or Saturday.

Coates said:

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kevmiller said:

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These forecast / models are all over the place and doesn't seem like anyone has a clue. The travel updates came in really light yesterday

Im due in Dallas (Irving) on Friday afternoon.
Have the option to leave tonight (Wednesday) if I have to or early Thursday or just wait until Friday morning. Looks like the worst travel day will be Thursday.. just wondering if worth extra expense to head up tonight vs early Friday am. Traveling with my kids so it's not just me.
I know a lot of people headed up for the cotton bowl also having the same questions. And I'd be likely traveling on 35 so if any icing on 35 with the potential traffic heading up from Austin could create problems also.

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I was landing at 9:30 tonight, cancelled and put on the Ted eye (2.5 hours later) for some reason. Then called and got changed to landing at 5:00 tonight.

The agent I spoke to said expect most flight to be cancelled after tonight into Friday afternoon. If you can get home today it sounds like that's the best option vs being stuck somewhere until Friday late afternoon or Saturday.

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Big difference between flying and driving. I assume the original post meant driving.

riverrataggie said:

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Coates said:

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kevmiller said:

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These forecast / models are all over the place and doesn't seem like anyone has a clue. The travel updates came in really light yesterday

Im due in Dallas (Irving) on Friday afternoon.
Have the option to leave tonight (Wednesday) if I have to or early Thursday or just wait until Friday morning. Looks like the worst travel day will be Thursday.. just wondering if worth extra expense to head up tonight vs early Friday am. Traveling with my kids so it's not just me.
I know a lot of people headed up for the cotton bowl also having the same questions. And I'd be likely traveling on 35 so if any icing on 35 with the potential traffic heading up from Austin could create problems also.

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I was landing at 9:30 tonight, cancelled and put on the Ted eye (2.5 hours later) for some reason. Then called and got changed to landing at 5:00 tonight.

The agent I spoke to said expect most flight to be cancelled after tonight into Friday afternoon. If you can get home today it sounds like that's the best option vs being stuck somewhere until Friday late afternoon or Saturday.

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Big difference between flying and driving. I assume the original post meant driving.

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Yes I'll be driving
Leaning towards going tonight vs Friday am

No promises but just going off the models, I think travel today through noon tomorrow is your lowest risk.

From there, things get dicey, and expect roads to be a mess Friday morning. Then thawing as the sun warms Friday afternoon, but re-freezing evening and overnight into Saturday. Final thaw on Saturday.

riverrataggie said:

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They are reporting the exact opposite on news channels. Delkus and foxbros are all showing the wintry mix line moving further north. SE Dallas county might be nothing but rain.

It'll be interesting to see what actually happens.

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Interesting. Maybe the "why not both" is that the wintry mix will dominate the first couple of hours before the snow takes over. I'm still seeing new graphics this morning saying 3" of snow in DFW.

We are ~5 miles south of the Red River in Fannin Co, so a little different situation here.

Still not seeing how there will be travel issues, temps look to be above freezing through Friday night.

Coates said:

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Still not seeing how there will be travel issues, temps look to be above freezing through Friday night.

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It really depends on where you are. I think Dallas and Tarrant counties will be pretty clear. I'm sure isolated spots. But Collin north and north east likely will be different story. Especially with re-freeze Thursday and Friday nights. South of Dallas and Tarrant likely will only get rain. So just wet.

This has huge bust potential as usual. I'm generally in tune with weather around here (hell used to chase storms back in the days) but have a hard time believing there will be any impacts with mid 30 temps. Now north and east of DFW yes it looks snowy.

JR Ewingford said:

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This has huge bust potential as usual. I'm generally in tune with weather around here (hell used to chase storms back in the days) but have a hard time believing there will be any impacts with mid 30 temps. Now north and east of DFW yes it looks snowy.

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Idk about "as usual". The Feb 2021 icepocalypse was forecast as merely 1-3" of snow up to a couple days prior. This stuff is extremely difficult to predict.

kevmiller said:

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These forecast / models are all over the place and doesn't seem like anyone has a clue. The travel updates came in really light yesterday

Im due in Dallas (Irving) on Friday afternoon.
Have the option to leave tonight (Wednesday) if I have to or early Thursday or just wait until Friday morning. Looks like the worst travel day will be Thursday.. just wondering if worth extra expense to head up tonight vs early Friday am. Traveling with my kids so it's not just me.
I know a lot of people headed up for the cotton bowl also having the same questions. And I'd be likely traveling on 35 so if any icing on 35 with the potential traffic heading up from Austin could create problems also.

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Take it for what it worth, I'm not a weatherman so someone can correct me if this is wrong
IMO it's all about timing.
If you're driving up to DFW early Friday then yes I think travel will be difficult. If you're going midday arriving after 1pm or so I think you will be ok.
Looks like just rain to the south so coming up on 35 or 45 pre afternoon should be fine as well

That's what I'm taking away from all this at the moment

Today's model runs are trending colder with more precip available.

Curious to see the noon runs, as that's what the National Weather Service at Ft. Worth will be using for their afternoon weather update. Which is what the schools and cities will base things for tomorrow on (closures).

North side of the metro is looking really good for all snow tomorrow, DFW proper gets a wintry mix.

Thanks for the update.

Euro model still throwing big snow numbers

wangus12 said:

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Euro model still throwing big snow numbers

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say move that a county or two north / north east and it's not far off.

wangus12 said:

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Euro model still throwing big snow numbers

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I'm smack-dab in the middle of Collin county. Right on the decimal between 9.4