The storm2k thread is saying some of the models are starting to trend back to slightly colder temps which would mean more snow than ice hopefully.
***Metroplex Winter 2024-2025 Thread***
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Last: 2 min ago by Double Diamond
Models are trending back towards positive precip.
Feels like we're whiplashing with the models today.
Tonight's HRRR model run is going to be highly anticipated for everyone.
Feels like we're whiplashing with the models today.
Tonight's HRRR model run is going to be highly anticipated for everyone.
And warmer. The snow/sleet/ice transition line keeps inching northward.FTAG 2000 said:
Models are trending back towards positive precip.
Feels like we're whiplashing with the models today.
Tonight's HRRR model run is going to be highly anticipated for everyone.
aggiesherpa
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So is this officially fizzling out to some cold rain?
The NWS forecast for my part of Collin County went from all snow starting Wednesday night through Friday morning with a high of 30, to now being Wintry Mix on Thursday moving to rain/snow showers ending Thursday night with a high of 36.TxAgLaw03RW said:
So is this officially fizzling out to some cold rain?
But it could very well flip back to all snow or move to all rain. I don't think anybody really knows. Forecasting for winter precip in this part of the country is hard.
I said this earlier, big game in town on Friday so I expect weather to be awful.
foulbeast said:The NWS forecast for my part of Collin County went from all snow starting Wednesday night through Friday morning with a high of 30, to now being Wintry Mix on Thursday moving to rain/snow showers ending Thursday night with a high of 36.TxAgLaw03RW said:
So is this officially fizzling out to some cold rain?
But it could very well flip back to all snow or move to all rain. I don't think anybody really knows. Forecasting for winter precip in this part of the country is hard.
They based that update on the noon model runs. The 3pm models trending back to more moisture and cooler temps.
Agree though. No one knows, models all over the place. The good short term models will start coming in tonight and we will hopefully have a better idea on things
My read of the storm2k thread that is extremely active is that right now, we know it will either be cold rain or up to 16" of snow, or anything in between, including ice.
Back to 6-8" of precip for DFW.
This winter weather event is a nightmare to forecast. Major models spitting out different data, all over the place, 1-2 days out from the event. Euro and GFS even with huge discrepancies right now.
— Collin Myers (@collinmyerswx) January 7, 2025
There are great analysts and meteorologists all around trying to iron this out.
Model data was about 5 degrees too warm for today
— James Bryant (@KATVJames) January 7, 2025
The flagship ECMWF [12Z] standing on business with North Texas snowfall including Dallas-Fort Worth.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 7, 2025
DFW still at 11"📏❄️with HEAVY snow Thurs into Friday. However, this is still a high-end scenario.
NWS at 6" -- but mixed precipitation could mean much less. pic.twitter.com/NkZaO7CqOJ
I for one will be interested to see if the forecast from the frog dude with bad spelling comes true or not:
My early forecast..
— Greg Ramsey 🇺🇸💡 (@GramseyGreg) January 7, 2025
American models definitely through a wrench in the storm the past 2-3 runs.
It seems there was an error with DFW's Island Heating Effect and the lower resolution models taking this access heating and it caused some major issues.
Things are back on track,… pic.twitter.com/hltksspHP8
Snow or rain
That map is for snow+sleet, in inches. Apparently sleet is very difficult to model so it gets lumped in
GarlandAg2012
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wangus12 said:
Snow or rain
Total snowfall
As of 6pm NBC5 saying 1-3" in Tarrant/Dallas, 3-6" to the north and less than an inch to the south.
Well I'm in Celina, so I guess I'll go buy all the toilet paper in the area.
It's obvious Big Grocery and Big Firewood have paid off the weather folks to invoke panic buying
One would not have to panic buy, if one was prepared already.
Went to the store today for some medicine and it was insane. Can't imagine tomorrow.
My wife tried buying an overnighted sled on Amazon despite me pointing out what a waste it would be. Thankfully all were sold out.
I'm prepared for at least 6 months.
Umm.... I'm getting some light snow flurries falling here in Fort Worth right now
I bought a **** ton of bullets today. I don't own a gun but the bad guys don't know that!
Spaceship said:
My wife tried buying an overnighted sled on Amazon despite me pointing out what a waste it would be. Thankfully all were sold out.
A big cookie sheet pan or laundry basket can work in a pinch. Of course, you also need hills, which are kinda hard to find around here. Takes me back. Remember 23 or 24 years ago with my son sledding down the little hill behind our townhome on a cookie sheet pan Didn't last long because he didn't have proper snow clothes and quickly got too cold. Good times! I love snow days!
Something that works great as a sled is this:
https://www.homedepot.com/s/lexan+polycarbonate+sheet?adobe_mc=TS%3D1736317495%7CMCMID%3D43638448654176572348065981404457233939%7CMCORGID%3DF6421253512D2C100A490D45%40AdobeOrg&mboxSession=6c152a29-05cf-4f69-a263-d919ca29a7b3
But a heat gun too and you can get a nice bend in the front edge so it skids really well. My dad owns a machine shop and made these for us as a kid and they always worked well. Extremely smooth and spreads the weight out so you glide rather than digging in.
https://www.homedepot.com/s/lexan+polycarbonate+sheet?adobe_mc=TS%3D1736317495%7CMCMID%3D43638448654176572348065981404457233939%7CMCORGID%3DF6421253512D2C100A490D45%40AdobeOrg&mboxSession=6c152a29-05cf-4f69-a263-d919ca29a7b3
But a heat gun too and you can get a nice bend in the front edge so it skids really well. My dad owns a machine shop and made these for us as a kid and they always worked well. Extremely smooth and spreads the weight out so you glide rather than digging in.
Winter Storm Warning for Cooke, Grayson, Fannin, Lamar, Wise, Denton, Collin, Hunt, Delta, Hopkins, Parker, Tarrant, Dallas and Rockwall County until 12:00pm Friday.
2-4 inches of snow with possibility of up to 8".
2-4 inches of snow with possibility of up to 8".
GarlandAg2012 said:
Something that works great as a sled is this:
https://www.homedepot.com/s/lexan+polycarbonate+sheet?adobe_mc=TS%3D1736317495%7CMCMID%3D43638448654176572348065981404457233939%7CMCORGID%3DF6421253512D2C100A490D45%40AdobeOrg&mboxSession=6c152a29-05cf-4f69-a263-d919ca29a7b3
But a heat gun too and you can get a nice bend in the front edge so it skids really well. My dad owns a machine shop and made these for us as a kid and they always worked well. Extremely smooth and spreads the weight out so you glide rather than digging in.
That's a good tip. Also for those of you with pools, if you have pool floats (especially tubes) those could work.
Looks like that wintry mix line has held firm over the metroplex. Single data point, but this morning my house didn't drop below 29 last night here near white rock lake. So a couple degrees warmer than predicted and it was similar night before.
Not sure what this means but it seems to be warmer in actuals so far. Hopefully this doesn't mean it's just an ice event.
Not sure what this means but it seems to be warmer in actuals so far. Hopefully this doesn't mean it's just an ice event.
I'm excited for this one. Excited to see which models were mostly accurate.
What's going to happen? Ice or snow or nothing?
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