Ol Jock 99 said:
This is the ONLY weekend I could go deer hunting and now the whole effing North Texas area is going to be snowed under.
Isn't deer season over in NTX?
***Metroplex Winter 2024-2025 Thread***
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Last: 8 sec ago by Teslag
Isn't deer season over in NTX?
And this is why fixating on only certain models (cherry picking) is usually avoided by most reputable online weather-focused accounts and certainly by local news. There are just too many variables (and models) to hitch a wagon to anything until we get closer and things begin to converge. I don't disagree with seeking all information and planning based on risk assessment, however my observation with the online weather community is there are a lot of shock-jocks pumping click bait and even more amateurs who put far more weight into their perceived knowledge than they probably should (cest la vie).
Obviously none of that means that what has been said about this storm couldn't have happened. Just my two cents after casually following weather communities over the last couple of years.
All that said, local guys like Pete def seem to (over)react at times to online criticism they receive and that can impact their calls in certain situations. That said, they seem to do a good job with a pretty tall task. Plus - Pete seems like a good dude who would be fun to enjoy a bourbon and BBQ with.
Obviously none of that means that what has been said about this storm couldn't have happened. Just my two cents after casually following weather communities over the last couple of years.
All that said, local guys like Pete def seem to (over)react at times to online criticism they receive and that can impact their calls in certain situations. That said, they seem to do a good job with a pretty tall task. Plus - Pete seems like a good dude who would be fun to enjoy a bourbon and BBQ with.
Winter storm watch issued for Thursday - Friday.
We've gone from the crazy 12"+ inches of snow on the models to more of the classic north Texas winter storm setup for Thursday.
Meaning, rain transitioning to sleet and ice during the day Thursday, finishing off with snow in the evening and overnight.
Still subject to change obviously, they'll be able to lock this in by tonight as far as what is going to happen on Thursday.
We've gone from the crazy 12"+ inches of snow on the models to more of the classic north Texas winter storm setup for Thursday.
Meaning, rain transitioning to sleet and ice during the day Thursday, finishing off with snow in the evening and overnight.
Still subject to change obviously, they'll be able to lock this in by tonight as far as what is going to happen on Thursday.
Talk about disappointing
Doe and spike for 2 more weeks.
wangus12 said:
Talk about disappointing
That sucks. Even the weather channel showed us getting 15" of snow up until later yesterday. Now it's the ice/snow forecast
I'm supposed to travel down on Friday for the Bama game Saturday. It's ok if I can't go until Saturday morning, but please tell me that 75 will be good to go by then.
miller0926 said:
I'm supposed to travel down on Friday for the Bama game Saturday. It's ok if I can't go until Saturday morning, but please tell me that 75 will be good to go by then.
75 should be fine Thursday and Friday now based on the updates. 30 as a low now in most of I30 and south. Nothing will stick. Especially with these warm days leading up and it the main event hitting during the day.
Ponder updated his this morning and mentioned the ice/sleet line moved North about 20 miles due to the 1-2 deg change in the upper level. I'm in Collin County and it's still expected to be all snow.
Any idea what the timing of this looks like ?
Headed to Dallas Friday morning but could head up Thursday evening if the roads are better that time.
Headed to Dallas Friday morning but could head up Thursday evening if the roads are better that time.
LJF78 said:
Any idea what the timing of this looks like ?
Headed to Dallas Friday morning but could head up Thursday evening if the roads are better that time.
Always drive during the daylight if you can when it comes to snow/ice conditions. What my side of the family that grew up in Wisconsin taught me.
LJF78 said:
Any idea what the timing of this looks like ?
Headed to Dallas Friday morning but could head up Thursday evening if the roads are better that time.
Friday is your better time
Carlo4 said:wangus12 said:
Talk about disappointing
That sucks. Even the weather channel showed us getting 15" of snow up until later yesterday. Now it's the ice/snow forecast
They did? That's nowhere near what I saw outside of possibly a reference to one model. Highest I saw was 5-8 inches (obviously dependent on your location).
Weather service is trying to limit the hate if this all fizzles out by estimating much less than before and saying there's lots of uncertainty. Womp womp womp
I don't think it's about limiting the hate. Models got tricky overnight. Some show the low that is supposed to be the catalyst for this going out towards the pacific instead of rotating through Mexico and out into the Gulf.
Some still bring the low east which would be the big catalyst and in step with guidance over last few days.
Some still bring the low east which would be the big catalyst and in step with guidance over last few days.
I assume all the schools will be shut down starting Thursday morning regardless of severity.
VP at Pierce and Pierce said:
I assume all the schools will be shut down starting Thursday morning regardless of severity.
Surprised they haven't cancelled this week all together.
VP at Pierce and Pierce said:
I assume all the schools will be shut down starting Thursday morning regardless of severity.
Probably. Look for the closures to be announced tomorrow evening
Given the lack of consensus in the models and the trends over the last 24 hours toward warmer/drier conditions for DFW - i wouldn't assume anything at this point. I think this thing has the local weather folks stumped.
foulbeast said:
Given the lack of consensus in the models and the trends over the last 24 hours toward warmer/drier conditions for DFW - i wouldn't assume anything at this point.
I don't think it'll be dry. We will have precipitation. It just won't be 8-12"+ (that's what she said) like some were saying, who weren't she.
It'll likely still be 3-5 inches depending on where you are and a mix of rain to sleet to snow.
Yeah - the 8-12" of snow was never going to happen. I am highly skeptical on 3-5" at this point too - I've lived here long enough to see this time and time again. Coastal low forms and starves moisture from NTX - and the upper low moves slower than expected so there is no pacific moisture either. And the temps were always borderline so a lot of aspects have to come together on this one.riverrataggie said:I don't think it'll be dry. We will have precipitation. It just won't be 8-12"+ (that's what she said) like some were saying, who weren't she.foulbeast said:
Given the lack of consensus in the models and the trends over the last 24 hours toward warmer/drier conditions for DFW - i wouldn't assume anything at this point.
It'll likely still be 3-5 inches depending on where you are and a mix of rain to sleet to snow.
Kids were excited about snow, but this wintry mix is gonna suck
Malachi Constant said:
Kids were excited about snow, but this wintry mix is gonna suck
.
Yep, glad I told mine that it changes and they could still be in school. I assume school will be cancelled, but lots of big misses out there. Seems like this happens every year when it's several days away, everyone wants to be first vs accurate I guess.
Sure did spread out over the day and a half. They revised again and are now saying 1" of snow or less and it's mostly ice/sleet. At this point, i hope they keep revising it so it's cold rain and nothing else.DropDemNuggetz said:Carlo4 said:wangus12 said:
Talk about disappointing
That sucks. Even the weather channel showed us getting 15" of snow up until later yesterday. Now it's the ice/snow forecast
They did? That's nowhere near what I saw outside of possibly a reference to one model. Highest I saw was 5-8 inches (obviously dependent on your location).
almost like its foolish to predict with certainty heavy snowfall over a week out.
A week ago they didn't have any snow predictions. This is weird in that they were prediction heavy snow about 72 hours out.
Yeah the low hanging back west on the models is what is throwing the snow forecast into the gutter.
NWS still sticking to 3-6 inches of snow for the metro. Tonight the HRRR short term model will come into range and we'll have a much better idea of what's ahead on Thursday.
NWS still sticking to 3-6 inches of snow for the metro. Tonight the HRRR short term model will come into range and we'll have a much better idea of what's ahead on Thursday.
no?beatlesphan said:
Let's get this started...I started following POW after he proved right on a lot of stuff last year. His latest update shows a very cold week of Jan 6 with potential for ice/snow that weekend.
The reason for the big shift in the last 24 hours, as I understand it, is the data collection changed for the Low system out on the west coast which is driving the moisture event here.
Basically beforehand it was offshore or unformed but models were forecasting its likely track. Yesterday it came ashore/coalesced and so there's more tangible data to plot its probable track and evolution.
Simply my layman's understanding.
One thing I'm curious about which Mets have hinted at without detailing directly is the impact of the existing snow cover in Kansas from the last storm. Could let more cold air in more southerly, and atmospheric models don't really take that into account (assuming). Would affect the snow / wintry mix line, right?
Basically beforehand it was offshore or unformed but models were forecasting its likely track. Yesterday it came ashore/coalesced and so there's more tangible data to plot its probable track and evolution.
Simply my layman's understanding.
One thing I'm curious about which Mets have hinted at without detailing directly is the impact of the existing snow cover in Kansas from the last storm. Could let more cold air in more southerly, and atmospheric models don't really take that into account (assuming). Would affect the snow / wintry mix line, right?
In other words. They blew their load early?
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I just remember the biggest snow we ever had, Delkus was saying it would be maybe a light dusting of snow. And then the city got blanketed with a foot of snow. This stuff is hard to predict.
riverrataggie said:
In other words. They blew their load early?
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