TRM said:

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MAINE POLL - Senate

🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 49%
🟦 Troy Jackson: 46%

NYT/Siena (A+) | 9/15-22 | 619 LV pic.twitter.com/02LU3MhJVB

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2026

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So Canadian trade wars tanked the DSA guy?

UMass-Lowell/YouGov poll has Jackson up.

TRM said:

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UMass-Lowell/YouGov poll has Jackson up.

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49%>46%, no?

flown-the-coop said:

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YouBet said:

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She sounds like the horrific lady that was ahead in CA race and then tanked when similar accusations came out. Katie something.

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Not the lady who combed the hair of her staffer though… you mean the boiling potatoes lady?

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lol. I'm not sure. She was running for Congress. Was ahead and then tanked after all of her employee abuse came to light.

That's Siena/NYT

I read that yesterday in the NYT and the comments are filled with "We've got to vote for her anyway!" and "Why is the Times doing hit pieces on progressive women!"

TRM said:

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That's Siena/NYT

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It's rhetorical poll in the post I replied to. Are you derailing?

BadMoonRisin said:

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The problem is that you need to convince young voters to ignore what you have actually done, and then convince them that they should allow you to keep doing it

— Diogenes (@Kozzmoknight2) September 23, 2026

I would say ignore what they have NOT done, but point stands.

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No, the Diogenes post was spot on.

Seems like you're derailing, but whatever

Are the polls correct that show the Rs are in deep trouble? The White House, GOP Congress critters, and Republican Party's national organization and state GOP organizations sure seem to think so.

That's why Trump and the Rs are in full-bore panic and desperation mode.

"We'll add another $1T+ to the $40T national debt and give you $5000 checks if you vote for us" is a mindboggling level of desperation.

Now the Administration and GOP Congress critters are pushing for a 90-day moratorium banning exports of diesel.

in another sign of how dramatically trump's 2024 coalition is deteriorating, we've now got the kansas R senate incumbent publicly coming out against ICE enforcement tactics in a state trump carried by double digits two years ago

When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe.

I’m closely following what’s happening in SW Kansas and have been in…

— Dr. Roger Marshall (@RogerMarshallMD) September 23, 2026

Supposedly Lt. Dan was in Austin last night meeting with donors, and told them that some senate republican seats are in trouble, he and Abbott are in tight races, and Paxton and Talarico are tied. Who knows if it's just fearmongering to drum up dollars or actually true. (FWIW, I don't believe that he and Vikki Goodwin are in a tight race.)

DeschutesAg said:

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Are the polls correct that show the Rs are in deep trouble? The White House, GOP Congress critters, and Republican Party's national organization and state GOP organizations sure seem to think so.

That's why Trump and the Rs are in full-bore panic and desperation mode.

"We'll add another $1T+ to the $40T national debt and give you $5000 checks if you vote for us" is a mindboggling level of desperation.

Now the Administration and GOP Congress critters are pushing for a 90-day moratorium banning exports of diesel.

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an interesting wrinkle i read this morning is that democrats are surging to a double digit generic ballot advantage over republicans in recent polling (which would be the biggest since 2008), but this surge might be concentrated in deeply red states and therefore not translate to much electoral success. for example: iowa going from R+15 in 2024 to, say, R+5 in 2026 would be a seismic change, but not one the flips a seat.

Yes that's the current Nate Silver fantasy.

It’s literally what Nate said in 2024 when Selzer came out

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) September 24, 2026

It's laughable, as always. He's grasping at straws as he decided to admit Sullivan is ahead in AK and Brown can't crest 46 or so in Ohio pending an onslaught of spend against him.

Ok let's stop the psyop about Republicans losing Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska. That's 51 seats right there.

A likely win in Ohio makes it 52.

I also expect Michigan and New Hampshire to flip. 54 seats.

I would not be surprised in Minnesota flips. 55.

GA and NC are wild… https://t.co/zXROE0GKda

— RightWI (@RightWI1776) September 24, 2026

I also expect the good news so start snowballing for Paxton this week/weekend, and then also in IA, MN and MI. The Dem drunkard in IA is not a great candidate to close there with, and the DSA candidates on the latter two are going to get clobbered with negatives.

we're on week 10 (at least) of "things will turn around for paxton soon", and it hasn't happened yet. and i'd be wary of anyone confidently telling you GA and NC are wild cards; those races may already be over.

regardless my gut is that Rs keep the senate, the map is as friendly as it could be for them.

Interesting story from Mark Halperin

If you are a Republican campaign consultant who thinks my sources are wrong about the state of play, please reach out and let me know.

My latest column on @Daily_MailUS about the midterms:https://t.co/1Rp2ihPc3q

— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) September 24, 2026

https://archive.ph/2026.09.24-231929/https://www.dailymail.com/debate/article-16158107/midterms-trump-panic-texts-emails-mark-halperin.html

Referenced in said article

Yesterday, Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a +15 district you’re within the margin for error, if you’re in a +10 district you’re underwater, and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006.

I slept on…

— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) September 23, 2026

Halperin's been on about how wonderful things are for team DSA-Dems for months now, and I say that even though I have listened to a lot of his programming because he will entertain non-communist views and guests to create a facade of 'unbiased' coverage.

He was also a giant Graham Platner enthusiast before he got forced to drop out.

Meanwhile...hard data is out there that belies what 'Panican GOP consultants trying to raise even more money' have to say.

Nearly $5M going to the nearly safe D races in NH, GA, and NC, but not one cent going to Texas is extremely irritating https://t.co/AbfnIAM9wI

— James🗳 (@_fat_ugly_rat_) September 24, 2026

Has to triple check Montgomery but yup only 17,016 as of today. Vs 49085 requests in 2024

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) September 24, 2026

nortex97 said:

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Halperin's been on about how wonderful things are for team DSA-Dems for months now, and I say that even though I have listened to a lot of his programming because he will entertain non-communist views and guests to create a facade of 'unbiased' coverage.

He was also a giant Graham Platner enthusiast before he got forced to drop out.

Meanwhile...hard data is out there that belies what 'Panican GOP consultants trying to raise even more money' have to say.

Nearly $5M going to the nearly safe D races in NH, GA, and NC, but not one cent going to Texas is extremely irritating https://t.co/AbfnIAM9wI

— James🗳 (@_fat_ugly_rat_) September 24, 2026

Has to triple check Montgomery but yup only 17,016 as of today. Vs 49085 requests in 2024

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) September 24, 2026

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Halperin has been calling POTUS one of the greatest politicians of the last century…this is not some "TDS" Stu Smith type.

Maybe Susan Collins, Roger Marshall, Ashley Hinson, Mike Rogers, Dan Sullivan, John Sununu, Jon Husted, Michelle Tafoya, and even Ken Paxton will all win. I know serious people who think each of those outcomes is possible.

Maybe Republican House losses will be at a minimum.…

— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) September 25, 2026

The interesting thing about this moment is the twin engine of poll skepticism and national attitudes about the war and costs (diesel) cratering POTUS' support.

I have no idea how this plays out, but the Blue Tsunami is possible.

To be clear I've enjoyed his shows and don't think he has TDS, he works hard to play it straight it's just a natural underlying bias in favor of democrats to me (and mainstream media, for instance he really talked up Glenn Kessler who he had on this year at some point, a clown I have absolutely nothing but contempt for). He's one of the few journalists I think I'd enjoy sitting down to have a beer with.

Everyone has biases, I don't deny my own, and if I didn't want to hear from 'the other' perspectives/views I guess I wouldn't be posting on this site.

And there are a handful of 'good' pollsters at the opposite end of Yougov/Marist etc.

MAINE POLL - Senate

🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 49%
🟦 Troy Jackson: 46%

NYT/Siena (A+) | 9/15-22 | 619 LV pic.twitter.com/02LU3MhJVB

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2026

But I'm convinced IA is a problem right now. We'll see, that's the one where diesel might cost some GOP momentum. And only one poll has shown NC getting closer (to within 4 I think).

I don't think Iowa is a plus 15
KH was a historically bad candidate and a D+10 flips 1-3 out of 4 house seats

Des Moines and its suburbs aresplit among 3 districts and they are all by current electoral standards "competitive". Which shows the power of gerrymandering

Currently it is a 4-0 R map but that is achieved by cutting up Des Moines

🔵 News - Cook Political Report moved 15 House race ratings toward Democrats, including NC-11, TX-15, and FL-22 from Lean R to Toss Up.

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 25, 2026

Eta:

New @CookPolitical: GOP on track to lose House majority as 15 race ratings shift towards Dems. Full analysis by @ercovey: https://t.co/2r1bmKg5by pic.twitter.com/k1rz7jC6Dj

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 25, 2026

It's the worst kept secret out there and has been for awhile, but the GOP is definitely losing the house.

Senate is still competitive, but dem odds seem to be improving by the day with still about 40 days left.

Cooper has won statewide 6 times in NC and Whatley kinda blows.

Ossoff has national aspirations and is highly regarded in state. Even Kemp was afraid to run against him. Those seats are already over.

nortex97 said:

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To be clear I've enjoyed his shows and don't think he has TDS, he works hard to play it straight it's just a natural underlying bias in favor of democrats to me (and mainstream media, for instance he really talked up Glenn Kessler who he had on this year at some point, a clown I have absolutely nothing but contempt for). He's one of the few journalists I think I'd enjoy sitting down to have a beer with.

Everyone has biases, I don't deny my own, and if I didn't want to hear from 'the other' perspectives/views I guess I wouldn't be posting on this site.

And there are a handful of 'good' pollsters at the opposite end of Yougov/Marist etc.

MAINE POLL - Senate

🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 49%
🟦 Troy Jackson: 46%

NYT/Siena (A+) | 9/15-22 | 619 LV pic.twitter.com/02LU3MhJVB

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2026

But I'm convinced IA is a problem right now. We'll see, that's the one where diesel might cost some GOP momentum. And only one poll has shown NC getting closer (to within 4 I think).

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I concur on ME & IA (KS will probably be a nail biter by extension)…there's GOP slowing down funding for NC is probably the single best sign of where insiders think that race is.

Gas prices and the war have sunk the GOP this election cycle.

The GOP was elected to get prices under control and they have failed.

People have made up their minds and the infusion of upcoming negative ads against the dems is going to be too late.

I do really think it's gonna be a blue wave, and perhaps a tsunami, but outsiders will have to interpret it not as Democrats are suddenly super popular, but an anti-incumbency movement is projectile vomiting out Republicans this time. Since the Republicans are uniquely associated with the failings of the Trump administration, I absolutely expect a dramatic evening in Washington if all this is conducted fairly.

Folks be mad!

Old McDonald said:

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in another sign of how dramatically trump's 2024 coalition is deteriorating, we've now got the kansas R senate incumbent publicly coming out against ICE enforcement tactics in a state trump carried by double digits two years ago

When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe.

I’m closely following what’s happening in SW Kansas and have been in…

— Dr. Roger Marshall (@RogerMarshallMD) September 23, 2026

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he's pandering to liberal white women who dominate the largest county in the state hoping they decide not to show up in November.

K2-HMFIC said:

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Halperin has been calling POTUS one of the greatest politicians of the last century…this is not some "TDS" Stu Smith type.

Maybe Susan Collins, Roger Marshall, Ashley Hinson, Mike Rogers, Dan Sullivan, John Sununu, Jon Husted, Michelle Tafoya, and even Ken Paxton will all win. I know serious people who think each of those outcomes is possible.

Maybe Republican House losses will be at a minimum.…

— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) September 25, 2026

The interesting thing about this moment is the twin engine of poll skepticism and national attitudes about the war and costs (diesel) cratering POTUS' support.

I have no idea how this plays out, but the Blue Tsunami is possible.

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Trump has gone from making most GOP voters satisfied to flat out pissing them off. The Iran War, prices of almost everything, Diesel prices (lots of blue collar workers that would not vote for Kamala will go back to DEM straight ticket voting).

If the GOP retains control of either the senate or house it will be a huge win. Lots of older folks who traditionally vote GOP hate Trump b/c he's so polarizing with how he does things. They may not vote at all this year and that will make it really tough for the GOP to stay in control.

This is going to hit a lot of local races as well. I can see lots of RED states losing local seats (Texas, KS, MO, OK). Not losing control, but losing seats and not getting them back.

Expect 2027 to have tons of impeachment, investigations and the MSM will be all in on getting Trump.

agracer said:

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Old McDonald said:

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in another sign of how dramatically trump's 2024 coalition is deteriorating, we've now got the kansas R senate incumbent publicly coming out against ICE enforcement tactics in a state trump carried by double digits two years ago

When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe.

I’m closely following what’s happening in SW Kansas and have been in…

— Dr. Roger Marshall (@RogerMarshallMD) September 23, 2026

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he's pandering to liberal white women who dominate the largest county in the state hoping they decide not to show up in November.

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It's a little odd because the area where these raids took place is pretty desolate. I don't even think there are 100K people in all three of the counties combined.


In any case, Roger Marshall might be in trouble this November.

• It's a poorly kept secret that he doesn't even live in Kansas anymore.
• The crowd ripped him a new one at the last debate between him and Adam Hamilton (it was at the state fair)
• He actually didn't qualify for a second round of debates because less than 25% of his campaign funding came from within Kansas
• His opponent Adam Hamilton is a 5th generation Kansan and long time pastor in Leawood, KS. He's matching up pretty well against him so far.

I appreciate all the information.

I generally like Halperin and believe he tends to be somewhat fair.

The worst qualities of the person we elected to stop illegals and to do something about the economy have all come together at the worst time.

Iran is a failure and a direct contradiction of what he said he'd do.

Plus he has driven up gas prices.

Plus his obnoxiousness has worn thin on most people, even many (me) who voted for him.

I'm not sorry I voted for him, but his governing style and Iran are going to cost Republicans the Congress, I fear.

Sickening.

nai06 said:

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agracer said:

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Old McDonald said:

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in another sign of how dramatically trump's 2024 coalition is deteriorating, we've now got the kansas R senate incumbent publicly coming out against ICE enforcement tactics in a state trump carried by double digits two years ago

When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe.

I’m closely following what’s happening in SW Kansas and have been in…

— Dr. Roger Marshall (@RogerMarshallMD) September 23, 2026

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he's pandering to liberal white women who dominate the largest county in the state hoping they decide not to show up in November.

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It's a little odd because the area where these raids took place is pretty desolate. I don't even think there are 100K people in all three of the counties combined.


In any case, Roger Marshall might be in trouble this November.

• It's a poorly kept secret that he doesn't even live in Kansas anymore.
• The crowd ripped him a new one at the last debate between him and Adam Hamilton (it was at the state fair)
• He actually didn't qualify for a second round of debates because less than 25% of his campaign funding came from within Kansas
• His opponent Adam Hamilton is a 5th generation Kansan and long time pastor in Leawood, KS. He's matching up pretty well against him so far.

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if Hamilton wins, it will be Johnson County (where Leawood is located) that puts him over the top along with disenchanted GOP voters in rural counties not voting.

I don't know how much stock I would put in the booing at the state fair. The DEM's are great at rallying folks (hell, they bus them into some evens in other states) to show up at these events and making a mockery of things for the GOP.

Marshall is not very popular though and the war and the cost of everything could be the end for him. Hamilton seems moderate enough to keep the seat for more than one term too.

OldArmy71 said:

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I appreciate all the information.

I generally like Halperin and believe he tends to be somewhat fair.

The worst qualities of the person we elected to stop illegals and to do something about the economy have all come together at the worst time.

Iran is a failure and a direct contradiction of what he said he'd do.

Plus he has driven up gas prices.

Plus his obnoxiousness has worn thin on most people, even many (me) who voted for him.

I'm not sorry I voted for him, but his governing style and Iran are going to cost Republicans the Congress, I fear.

Sickening.

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You're going to end up with a Beto in TX situation. Lots of GOP/IND will stay home and not vote and the DEMs will down ballot everywhere and the GOP will lose state house/senate seats as well. KS is at risk for losing the supermajority b/c of Trumps idiocy.

But at the end of the day, how much is it really going to impact your average citizen? Nothing the DEMS do in 2027 is going to lower gas prices, lower the cost of groceries or goods and services.

Off topic a bit but how in the name of all that is holy am I somehow agreeing with Rahm Emmanuel today?

Washington needs a good power washing top to bottom. Five things I would do today to end corruption in Washington across all three branches of government:

1. Ban all stock trading.
2. Ban all participation in prediction markets.
3. Mandatory retirement at 75 years old.
4.… pic.twitter.com/fe885HZDMG

— Rahm Emanuel (@RahmEmanuel) September 24, 2026

Quote:

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Washington needs a good power washing top to bottom. Five things I would do today to end corruption in Washington across all three branches of government:

1. Ban all stock trading.
2. Ban all participation in prediction markets.
3. Mandatory retirement at 75 years old.
4. Mandatory blind trust for individuals with a net worth more than $1 million.
5. Ban all foreign gifts to public officials, including foreign investments in their businesses or other entities.

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Possible anti-DSA Dem dark horse 'populist' candidate for '28? I'd argue he's one of the most intelligent folks remaining in their 'camp' at this point.

agracer said:

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OldArmy71 said:

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I appreciate all the information.

I generally like Halperin and believe he tends to be somewhat fair.

The worst qualities of the person we elected to stop illegals and to do something about the economy have all come together at the worst time.

Iran is a failure and a direct contradiction of what he said he'd do.

Plus he has driven up gas prices.

Plus his obnoxiousness has worn thin on most people, even many (me) who voted for him.

I'm not sorry I voted for him, but his governing style and Iran are going to cost Republicans the Congress, I fear.

Sickening.

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But at the end of the day, how much is it really going to impact your average citizen? Nothing the DEMS do in 2027 is going to lower gas prices, lower the cost of groceries or goods and services.

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Problem is the GOP had full control of government, even the courts and presidency, for 2 years and haven't lowered the cost of gas prices, groceries, or goods despite very loudly campaigning on it in 2024.

I would love a mandatory retirement from congress at 75. Regardless of what party they're in, these old codgers who go into office at 50 and stay until they die at 90 or 95 make me sick.