jwhaby said:UntoldSpirit said:aggies101 said:TxAgLaw03RW said:
I don't understand this logic. Should we wait until Iran is an imminent nuclear threat? Seems dumb.
hasn't Netanyahu been saying Iran is "weeks from a nuclear bomb" for decades? Trump is just the only one dumb enough to do this. Even Bush didn't try to invade Iran.
Out of all countries with Nuke ambitions, Iran's radicals have expressed the biggest desire to use them. Their devotion to their apocalyptic beliefs is on full display. I don't know why anyone would doubt them after decades of commitment has been exhibited.
I believe the primary reason why other Presidents haven't done this is because of the threat of Iranian support from Russia and other countries, but that support has never been at it weakest as it is now, which is why this time is different than the past.
And our efforts to keep nuclear peace will NEVER be over. So those of you who are tired of it need to wake up. This is the way it's going to be for the foreseeable future. And this action isn't going to end it.
I appreciate your commentary. Here are two reasons that I have to doubt them.
1) We've been told since 1995 that Iran is months away from producing a nuclear weapon that they will use against their enemies. This hasn't proven to be true. Maybe we actually stopped them this time, but who stopped them the previous times? Why didn't they develop the weapon and attack in the past if the US didn't destroy their nuclear capabilities?
2) we were told that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. This was not true, yet we still spent $3 trillion on the war and lost 4,500 soldiers. I'm not interested in a repeat.
These are two reasons why people might be skeptical of our intelligence or our motivations. Again, nothing to do with the Jewish religion.
Counter points to consider:
I believe their have been actions in the past that prevented Iran from developing nukes more quickly, both from Israel and the US. Here is a Grok list:
- 1980s onward (initial US sanctions): Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution and hostage crisis, the US imposed broad sanctions, including an arms embargo and restrictions on nuclear-related technology transfers, effectively halting Western cooperation with Iran's early nuclear program.
- 2006 onward (UN Security Council sanctions): Starting with UNSC Resolution 1737 (December 2006), the international community imposed multiple rounds of sanctions banning sensitive nuclear technology transfers, freezing assets of key entities and individuals, and restricting Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile activities due to non-compliance with IAEA demands.
- Late 2000searly 2010s (expanded US and multilateral sanctions): Intensified economic measures (e.g., via the US Iran Sanctions Act and EU oil embargoes) targeted Iran's oil exports, banking, and finance, severely impacting the economy and pressuring Tehran over its enrichment program.
- 2010 (Stuxnet cyber operation Operation Olympic Games): A US-Israeli joint cyberattack deployed the Stuxnet worm against the Natanz enrichment facility, destroying around 1,000 centrifuges and delaying the program by an estimated 12 years.
- 20102012 (assassinations of nuclear scientists): Several Iranian scientists linked to the nuclear program were killed in targeted attacks (widely attributed to Israel/Mossad), including Massoud Ali Mohammadi (January 2010), Majid Shahriari (November 2010), and others through 2012 via car bombs or other methods.
- July 2020 (Natanz explosion/sabotage): A major explosion destroyed a centrifuge assembly building at Natanz (attributed to Israel), disrupting advanced centrifuge production.
- November 2020 (assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh): The scientist considered the architect of Iran's possible military nuclear program was killed near Tehran using a remote-controlled weapon (attributed to Israel).
- April 2021 (Natanz power outage/sabotage): A cyber-physical attack caused a blackout and damaged advanced centrifuges at the underground Natanz facility (attributed to Israel), prompting Iran to accelerate enrichment to 60% purity.
- 20182025 (US "maximum pressure" sanctions reimposed): After withdrawing from the JCPOA in 2018, the US reinstated and expanded sanctions on oil, finance, and trade, aiming to cripple Iran's economy and nuclear funding.
- September 2025 (UN "snapback" sanctions triggered): The UK, France, and Germany activated the JCPOA's snapback mechanism at the UN, reinstating broad multilateral sanctions due to Iran's ongoing non-compliance and enrichment advances.
- June 2025 (Israeli Operation Rising Lion strikes): Israel launched large-scale airstrikes and operations targeting nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan), missile sites, and assassinations of nuclear scientists and military leaders, severely damaging centrifuge cascades, enrichment infrastructure, and related capabilities.
- June 2025 (US direct strikes on nuclear sites): In coordination with Israel, the US conducted airstrikes (including bunker-busters from B-2 bombers) on hardened underground facilities like Fordow and Natanz, setting back Iran's program by an estimated 12 years according to assessments.
<end Grok>
It would seem that the intelligence today, along with the outright bold statements of Iran and reluctance to concede their nuclear development, isn't just some kind of "op".
As for Iraq, Saddam Hussein's nuclear ambitions were extremely dangerous. The bi-partisan post analysis of the war said as much. The long term occupation and execution seem highly flawed, but this is exactly what Trump is not likely to do because he learned that lesson. I don't think Trump was gung ho about doing this until there appeared to be no other option, while this option was never more possible since Iran's support has waned.