Muh Polls

758,340 Views | 5646 Replies | Last: 54 min ago by McInnis 03
backintexas2013
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Read some comments about what the NYT admits. They said white liberals are 16% more likely to respond that white republicans or something close to that. Seems like they are hedging their bets.
satexas
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samurai_science said:

satexas said:

Trump is down to -125 in the vegas moneyline. Was up to -200 about 2/3 days ago....
Thats not a poll

This is not a derail or troll attempt. It's on-topic because while it's market-generated, it is a predictive tool and a bit of a poll in itself far more relevant than some of the 'traditional polls' posted here, which are just pure fantasy (where this is bet on with tangible assets at stake).

One could simply say the Vegas markets are wholly predictive of the sum of all the known data ('polls') and indicators that are currently available/published.

This morning the line moved from -125 to -130 for Trump. Kamala sits at +110 (even odds).
Captn_Ag05
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will25u
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Captn_Ag05
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4stringAg said:

How accurate has Siena/NYT been? They are showing essentially a clean sweep for Kamala which I find hard to believe


Huh?
Captn_Ag05
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Captn_Ag05
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Captn_Ag05
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aggiehawg
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Saw that guy on with O'Reilly. He seems to know what he's doing. He was less confident about NV and MI, though. NV because of the culinary union in Clark County and MI because it is just very hard to poll.
Captn_Ag05
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Captn_Ag05
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aggiehawg said:

Saw that guy on with O'Reilly. He seems to know what he's doing. He was less confident about NV and MI, though. NV because of the culinary union in Clark County and MI because it is just very hard to poll.


They've been good in last two presidential cycles but not good in the off cycles. We shall see if they keep their magic during presidential race elections.
Captn_Ag05
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Iowa youth straw poll. Compare the results to prior two cycles

4stringAg
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Was looking at your posts on the previous page which I though were Siena Research and NYTimes but they may have just been tagged
Captn_Ag05
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The head to head result was more favorable to Harris than the full ballot, which is really what should be looked at IMO
TyHolden
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aginlakeway
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Wow.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
Ag CPA
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Awesome, always knew California was in play.
SwigAg11
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Captn_Ag05 said:

Iowa youth straw poll. Compare the results to prior two cycles



Are these voting age youth or under 18?
Captn_Ag05
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K-12 kids. Reflective of what their parents are doing.
ApachePilot
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TyHolden said:




God I hope so. This would give me hope for this great country's future.
Quo Vadis?
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Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview

aggiehawg
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Quote:

Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview
She's not. Watched it all. She still uses the same polling methodology she has used for decades.Hasn't really addapted to the new technology available. And she proudly says that because her methodology is so outdated, it is very expensive.

Were I the publisher of Des Moines Register (her sole client) I'd do a double take on that one.
AggieUSMC
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aggiehawg said:

Quote:

Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview
She's not. Watched it all. She still uses the same polling methodology she has used for decades.Hasn't really addapted to the new technology available. And she proudly says that because her methodology is so outdated, it is very expensive.

Were I the publisher of Des Moines Register (her sole client) I'd do a double take on that one.
Well, it doesn't really matter what anyone thinks about the poll. We'll all find out on Tuesday whether her methods are still valid or not.
TRM
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Quo Vadis? said:

Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview


She was confused because Ryan couldn't know the crosstabs since they're not published.
SpreadsheetAg
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aggiehawg
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Quote:

Well, it doesn't really matter what anyone thinks about the poll. We'll all find out on Tuesday whether her methods are still valid or not.
Except election polling is all about making adjustments to improve the accuracy of your sample.

And the fact she never reveals her cross tabs is a negative, not a positive. She's too good to allow anyone else to check her work. Apparently a long standing tradition with that particular poll.
98Ag99Grad
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aggiehawg said:



No one in Iowa. But Vance in NH?


Neither Harris or Walz going to PA
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Then again...



It's still going to be close, folks. If you know ANYONE in a swing state that hasn't voted Trump yet, do whatever you can to convince them to get to the polls.
FTAG 2000
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98Ag99Grad said:

aggiehawg said:



No one in Iowa. But Vance in NH?




Neither Harris or Walz going to PA


She has three appearances in PA tomorrow.

I figured it was more of a comment about the fact all three guys have three stops today while she can only show up for one event.
TAMU1990
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SpreadsheetAg said:




I would like to think he knows a lot more what's going on than most.
backintexas2013
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Well regarded by who? That guy writes for the progressive. Where is it in regards to 2020?
Philip J Fry
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https://www.muhlenberg.edu/aboutus/polling/politicselectionssurveys/archivedpolls/final2020paelectionsurvey/

Only off by outside the margin of error last time.
TAMU1990
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Captn_Ag05 said:




I find the age one interesting. I think the 50--64 group is under represented. It's also the most conservative group
TheWoodlandsTxAg
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Deace's birds are telling him New Hampshire is competitive.
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