samurai_science said:Thats not a pollsatexas said:
Trump is down to -125 in the vegas moneyline. Was up to -200 about 2/3 days ago....
FINAL @trafalgar_group #BattlegroundState #PA General Election #poll (11/01-03) #USPresident
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) November 3, 2024
48.4% @realDonaldTrump
46.7% @KamalaHarris
2.8% Other
2.1% Und#USSenate
47.4% @DaveMcCormickPA
45.9% @Bob_Casey
6.7% Und#PApol
Report: https://t.co/CmKTAjHWAD pic.twitter.com/ZFVjlwS1O2
π¨ BREAKING: Nate Silver's election model and national polling average suggests Trump has an 85% chance of winning the election on Tuesday.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
POPULAR VOTE:
π΅ Harris: 48.5% (+0.9)
π΄ Trump: 47.6%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS:
π΄ Trump: 85%
π΅ Harris: 14.6%
BREAKDOWN: This is due to⦠pic.twitter.com/ZP47mt2Ygq
4stringAg said:
How accurate has Siena/NYT been? They are showing essentially a clean sweep for Kamala which I find hard to believe
#NEW FINAL battleground polls - full ballot
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
π΄ ARIZONA: Trump+5
π΄ MICHIGAN: Trump+2
π΄ PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+1
π΄ GEORGIA: Trump+1
π΅ NEVADA: Harris+3
π΅ WISCONSIN: Harris+3
π΅ NORTH CAROLINA: Harris+4
Electoral College:
π΄ Trump: 280 π
π΅ Harris: 258
NYT/Siena | 10/25-11/2 |β¦ pic.twitter.com/PBaB9MKc5r
#New General election polls
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024
π΄ Wisconsin - Trump +1
π΄ North Carolina - Trump +2
π΄ Pennsylvania - Trump +1
π΄ Arizona - Trump +3
π‘ Michigan - Tie
Insider advantage #B - LV - 11/2
#NEW FINAL NEW HAMPSHIRE poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
π΅ Harris: 51% (+5)
π΄ Trump: 46%
Last poll: Harris+11
UNH | 10/29-11/2 | LVs
Our FINAL Sunday Afternoon Crosstabs: Trump 49%, Harris 46% https://t.co/KVUH5ikC4T pic.twitter.com/e7GaWOknoM
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 3, 2024
NEW @InsiderPolling Senate Poll:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024
WISCONSIN
Hovde (R) 48% (+1)
Baldwin (D-Inc) 47%
.
MICHIGAN
Slotkin (D) 48%
Rogers (R) 48%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Casey (D-Inc) 48% (+1)
McCormick (R) 47%
.
ARIZONA
Gallego (D) 49% (+2)
Lake (R) 47%
LV, 11/1-2 https://t.co/Y6gbsvRuUj
aggiehawg said:
Saw that guy on with O'Reilly. He seems to know what he's doing. He was less confident about NV and MI, though. NV because of the culinary union in Clark County and MI because it is just very hard to poll.
π¨ BREAKING OUT OF IOWA: Trump posts NEW RECORD in Iowa Youth Straw Poll, handily demolishes his own 2016 and 2020 performance
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
π΄ 2024: Trump+30.1
π΄ 2020: Trump+18.1
π΄ 2016: Trump+10.6
This year, Trump received *61.6% of the vote... Kamala nearly dipped into the 20s!
2024:β¦ pic.twitter.com/tHeFRXMGpx
BREAKING: Rasmussenβs head pollster, Mark Mitchell, suggests Trump is poised to secure a landslide victory that could resemble Ronald Reaganβs historic landslide win over Jimmy Carter in 1980.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 3, 2024
Captn_Ag05 said:
Iowa youth straw poll. Compare the results to prior two cyclesπ¨ BREAKING OUT OF IOWA: Trump posts NEW RECORD in Iowa Youth Straw Poll, handily demolishes his own 2016 and 2020 performance
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
π΄ 2024: Trump+30.1
π΄ 2020: Trump+18.1
π΄ 2016: Trump+10.6
This year, Trump received *61.6% of the vote... Kamala nearly dipped into the 20s!
2024:β¦ pic.twitter.com/tHeFRXMGpx
TyHolden said:BREAKING: Rasmussenβs head pollster, Mark Mitchell, suggests Trump is poised to secure a landslide victory that could resemble Ronald Reaganβs historic landslide win over Jimmy Carter in 1980.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 3, 2024
"What does this D represent, and the R represent?" - America's greatest pollster pic.twitter.com/RFzSi6MGZl
— SuperHario64 (@SuperHario64) November 3, 2024
She's not. Watched it all. She still uses the same polling methodology she has used for decades.Hasn't really addapted to the new technology available. And she proudly says that because her methodology is so outdated, it is very expensive.Quote:
Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview
Well, it doesn't really matter what anyone thinks about the poll. We'll all find out on Tuesday whether her methods are still valid or not.aggiehawg said:She's not. Watched it all. She still uses the same polling methodology she has used for decades.Hasn't really addapted to the new technology available. And she proudly says that because her methodology is so outdated, it is very expensive.Quote:
Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview
Were I the publisher of Des Moines Register (her sole client) I'd do a double take on that one.
She was confused because Ryan couldn't know the crosstabs since they're not published.Quo Vadis? said:
Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview"What does this D represent, and the R represent?" - America's greatest pollster pic.twitter.com/RFzSi6MGZl
— SuperHario64 (@SuperHario64) November 3, 2024
Pennsylvania is on track for a major Republican victory.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 3, 2024
The gap between 2024 and 2020 is now over 600k, which almost 10% of the entire electorate! pic.twitter.com/1IGuyjM0Xx
Except election polling is all about making adjustments to improve the accuracy of your sample.Quote:
Well, it doesn't really matter what anyone thinks about the poll. We'll all find out on Tuesday whether her methods are still valid or not.
aggiehawg said:Here are todayβs campaign stopsβ¦
— kevin smith (@kevin_smith45) November 3, 2024
Notice anything? pic.twitter.com/nwejoWoGCH
No one in Iowa. But Vance in NH?
Weβll-regarded Muhlenberg College Poll releases last survey of Pennsylvania before elect. It puts Kamala Harris in the lead:
— John Nichols (@NicholsUprising) November 3, 2024
Harris 49
Trump 47https://t.co/UZXFHbb9P9
π¨ BREAKING: Nate Silver's election model and national polling average suggests Trump has an 85% chance of winning the election on Tuesday.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
POPULAR VOTE:
π΅ Harris: 48.5% (+0.9)
π΄ Trump: 47.6%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS:
π΄ Trump: 85%
π΅ Harris: 14.6%
BREAKDOWN: This is due to⦠pic.twitter.com/ZP47mt2Ygq
98Ag99Grad said:aggiehawg said:Here are todayβs campaign stopsβ¦
— kevin smith (@kevin_smith45) November 3, 2024
Notice anything? pic.twitter.com/nwejoWoGCH
No one in Iowa. But Vance in NH?
Neither Harris or Walz going to PA
SpreadsheetAg said:Pennsylvania is on track for a major Republican victory.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 3, 2024
The gap between 2024 and 2020 is now over 600k, which almost 10% of the entire electorate! pic.twitter.com/1IGuyjM0Xx
Captn_Ag05 said:National @ActiVoteUS poll:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024
Trump 51% (+1)
Harris 50%
1,000 LV, 10/27-11/2https://t.co/xrRPVGn46d pic.twitter.com/I0jtbUcBb8
Little birdie says watch New Hampshire.
— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) November 3, 2024