Muh Polls - Page 155

txags92

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In reply to TheWoodlandsTxAg • 4:55p, 11/3/24

AG

TheWoodlandsTxAg said:
Little birdie says watch New Hampshire.
— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) November 3, 2024

Deace's birds are telling him New Hampshire is competitive.

Who is he?

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AtticusMatlock

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In reply to txags92 • 4:57p, 11/3/24

Quote:

Child of the King of Kings, husband/father/grandpa, BlazeTV host, 3x best-selling author, and EP of #NefariousMovie. Pronouns: if you disagree I'm a grifter.

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1836er

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5:01p, 11/3/24

AG

It's been fun hanging out with you guys in this thread. Looks like pretty much all the polls that are gonna get done are in, so I'll be hanging out in the early vote thread for the next day or two.

Talk to your friends, family, and acquaintances over the next two days and offer to get them to the polls if they are registered and haven't voted yet.

Thanks Captn_Ag05 and others who kept this thread going with updates!

Vance in '28

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JasonD2005

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5:02p, 11/3/24

AG

1,111 new posts when I clicked this thread. It's a sign.

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Oak Forest Ag

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5:14p, 11/3/24

AG

BTHO Kamala & Coach!

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Prosperdick

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5:16p, 11/3/24

AG

DDHQ forecast model ticked a bit higher in favor of Trump. Btw, chance of winning Iowa, 92%. https://t.co/zEXLXVb9gF
— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 3, 2024

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Barnyard96

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In reply to JasonD2005 • 5:17p, 11/3/24

AG

JasonD2005 said:
1,111 new posts when I clicked this thread. It's a sign.

999 were removed

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agsalaska

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In reply to Barnyard96 • 5:24p, 11/3/24

AG

Barnyard96 said:
JasonD2005 said:
1,111 new posts when I clicked this thread. It's a sign.

999 were removed

Haha,

Hats off to staff on this thread. I really like how they are handling it and keeping these threads from derailing. That's how we get to 100+ pages. They have several good ones going right now.

The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.

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4stringAg

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5:43p, 11/3/24

AG

Yes very good thread and been great to follow. Thanks everyone and Capt_Ag for posting the polls and providing background.

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will25u

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5:47p, 11/3/24

I trust decision desk over a lot of other places...

#NEW Decision Desk HQ 2024 election forecast update

🔴 Trump: 54%
🔵 Harris: 46%

Trump's win odds in:
🔴 North Carolina: 66%
🔴 Georgia: 65%
🔴 Arizona: 64%
🔴 Nevada: 56%
🔴 Pennsylvania: 53%
🔴 Wisconsin: 51%
🔵 Michigan: 44% pic.twitter.com/qTOLMUcNbs
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

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TRM

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5:53p, 11/3/24

AG

#Updated Nate Silver model - Electoral collage

Harris takes the lead

🔵 Harris 270 🏆
🔴 Trump 267
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024

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MemphisAg1

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In reply to TRM • 5:57p, 11/3/24

AG

TRM said:
#Updated Nate Silver model - Electoral collage

Harris takes the lead

🔵 Harris 270 🏆
🔴 Trump 267
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024

How does that square with this

🚨 BREAKING: Nate Silver's election model and national polling average suggests Trump has an 85% chance of winning the election on Tuesday.

POPULAR VOTE:
🔵 Harris: 48.5% (+0.9)
🔴 Trump: 47.6%

ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 85%
🔵 Harris: 14.6%

BREAKDOWN: This is due to… pic.twitter.com/ZP47mt2Ygq
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

I'm confused.

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backintexas2013

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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 5:58p, 11/3/24

AG

Read the readers comments

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rathAG05

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In reply to TRM • 6:06p, 11/3/24

AG

WTH? Didn't he just post Trump with an 85% chance to win the EC?

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MelvinUdall

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6:08p, 11/3/24

It is called a hedge and pump fade…"I said this, but I also said this." They are covering their ass.

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backintexas2013

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In reply to rathAG05 • 6:08p, 11/3/24

AG

No. That was a person taking one data point.

I bet it moves again. There were some crazy polls today

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Rockdoc

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6:09p, 11/3/24

AG

It's Nate Silver. All part of the plan.

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whatthehey78

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6:16p, 11/3/24

AG

I find pretty much all of this useless. One minute...this, next minute...that, totally inconsistent and becomes, "Blah, blah, blah". I don't believe the nation's actual consensus is that fluid or unstable.

Alexander, Caesar, Charlemagne, and myself founded empires; but upon what foundation did we rest the creations of our genius? Upon force! But Jesus Christ founded His upon love; and at this hour millions of men would die for Him. - Napoleon Bonaparte

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FrioAg 00

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6:18p, 11/3/24

AG

That's how you know the data has entered "noise mode" and is now just all being manipulated to try to impact the actual Election Day voting.

Pretty much have to turn off the "data collecting" for these last few days and whatever happens between now and Tuesday evening

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JDUB08AG

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6:28p, 11/3/24

AG

So silver is going against a key principle of his entire model. All you need to know.

His model says if Kamala has between a 0-.9% lead, Trump has an 85% chance of winning the election.

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FireAg

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In reply to JDUB08AG • 6:29p, 11/3/24

AG

JDUB08AG said:
So silver is going against a key principle of his entire model. All you need to know.

His model says if Kamala has between a 0-.9% lead, Trump has an 85% chance of winning the election.

How can he even square that? I'm confused…

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Philip J Fry

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6:33p, 11/3/24

AG

Because he wants to.

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YokelRidesAgain

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In reply to FireAg • 6:36p, 11/3/24

AG

FireAg said:

How can he even square that? I'm confused…

Silver's forecast is primarily based on state level polls rather than the national polling average. The actual forecasted Harris margin in the popular vote in his model is +2.1%, which is basically a coin flip.

Daugherty is willfully misstating what Silver is saying.

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.

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Captn_Ag05

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6:36p, 11/3/24

AG

JUST IN: After finding Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan, pollster Steve Mitchell "revamps sample" and now finds Harris with a lead.

🔵 Harris: 50% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 48%

Last poll: Trump+1

Mitchell Research | 10/29-11/2 | N=585LV
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024

FireAg

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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:37p, 11/3/24

AG

Captn_Ag05 said:
JUST IN: After finding Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan, pollster Steve Mitchell "revamps sample" and now finds Harris with a lead.

🔵 Harris: 50% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 48%

Last poll: Trump+1

Mitchell Research | 10/29-11/2 | N=585LV
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024

"Revamps" how?

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JDUB08AG

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In reply to YokelRidesAgain • 6:40p, 11/3/24

AG

YokelRidesAgain said:
FireAg said:

How can he even square that? I'm confused…
Silver's forecast is primarily based on state level polls rather than the national polling average. The actual forecasted Harris margin in the popular vote in his model is +2.1%, which is basically a coin flip.

Daugherty is willfully misstating what Silver is saying.

Than why does his site aggregate have Kamala with a .9% lead? He is picking and choosing and completely FOS.

Rockdoc

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6:41p, 11/3/24

AG

So basically from here on out, the polls are not meant to inform but to influence.

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TRM

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In reply to JDUB08AG • 6:41p, 11/3/24

AG

That's a conditional probability - Prob of Trump Wins IF Harris wins popular vote by less than 1. Each of those scenarios has probability attached to it, in actuality

Prob(Trump Wins) = Prob(Trump win given Scenario A1 occurs)*Prob(Scenario A)1 + Prob(Trump win given Scenario A2)*Prob(Scenario A2) +... +Prob(Trump win given Scenario An)*Prob(Scenario An)

He gave you Prob(Trump win given Scenario A1 occurs)

Captn_Ag05

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In reply to FireAg • 6:42p, 11/3/24

AG

Adjusted turnout expectations

Captn_Ag05

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6:42p, 11/3/24

AG

#NEW FINAL IOWA poll

🔴 Trump: 52% (+8)
🔵 Harris: 44%@SocalStrategies | 11/2-3 | N=435LV
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024

Philip J Fry

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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:44p, 11/3/24

AG

Captn_Ag05 said:
Adjusted turnout expectations

What's the early voting story in MI? I haven't heard anything from it

YokelRidesAgain

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In reply to JDUB08AG • 6:46p, 11/3/24

AG

JDUB08AG said:

Than why does his site aggregate have Kamala with a .9% lead? He is picking and choosing and completely FOS.

The polling average (which is not behind the paywall) shows Harris lead of 0.7% in national polling averages. The national polling averages are not the model's prediction (which is behind the paywall, and is currently Harris +2%), as I explained above.

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.

JDUB08AG

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In reply to TRM • 6:47p, 11/3/24

AG

TRM said:
That's a conditional probability - Prob of Trump Wins IF Harris wins popular vote by less than 1. Each of those scenarios has probability attached to it, in actuality

Prob(Trump Wins) = Prob(Trump win given Scenario A1 occurs)*Prob(Scenario A)1 + Prob(Trump win given Scenario A2)*Prob(Scenario A2) +... +Prob(Trump win given Scenario An)*Prob(Scenario An)

He gave you Prob(Trump win given Scenario A1 occurs)

So his own model ignores his probability factor? I'm not a statistician and probably coming across as an idiot, but if his own polling aggregator that he assigns weights to is within the probability range he assigns to it, why does his final projection deviate from that?

On simple terms, why is he applying a 2.1% national vote factor when his own polling aggregate is .9%?

TRM

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In reply to JDUB08AG • 6:53p, 11/3/24

AG

I don't follow all that closely to what Silver does, but Eric either lied or didn't know what he was giving out.

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SwigAg11

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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:54p, 11/3/24

AG

Captn_Ag05 said:
#NEW FINAL IOWA poll

🔴 Trump: 52% (+8)
🔵 Harris: 44%@SocalStrategies | 11/2-3 | N=435LV
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024

That poll was done in 1 day with ~450 LV, obviously as a counter/check on Selzer's work. It's in line with Emerson, but don't know what kind of validity to give it since it appears rushed.

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