Read some comments about what the NYT admits. They said white liberals are 16% more likely to respond that white republicans or something close to that. Seems like they are hedging their bets.

samurai_science said:

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satexas said:

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Trump is down to -125 in the vegas moneyline. Was up to -200 about 2/3 days ago....

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Thats not a poll

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This is not a derail or troll attempt. It's on-topic because while it's market-generated, it is a predictive tool and a bit of a poll in itself far more relevant than some of the 'traditional polls' posted here, which are just pure fantasy (where this is bet on with tangible assets at stake).

One could simply say the Vegas markets are wholly predictive of the sum of all the known data ('polls') and indicators that are currently available/published.

This morning the line moved from -125 to -130 for Trump. Kamala sits at +110 (even odds).

FINAL @trafalgar_group #BattlegroundState #PA General Election #poll (11/01-03) #USPresident

48.4% @realDonaldTrump
46.7% @KamalaHarris
2.8% Other
2.1% Und#USSenate

47.4% @DaveMcCormickPA
45.9% @Bob_Casey
6.7% Und#PApol

Report: https://t.co/CmKTAjHWAD pic.twitter.com/ZFVjlwS1O2

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) November 3, 2024

🚨 BREAKING: Nate Silver's election model and national polling average suggests Trump has an 85% chance of winning the election on Tuesday.

POPULAR VOTE:
🔵 Harris: 48.5% (+0.9)
🔴 Trump: 47.6%

ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 85%
🔵 Harris: 14.6%

BREAKDOWN: This is due to… pic.twitter.com/ZP47mt2Ygq

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

4stringAg said:

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How accurate has Siena/NYT been? They are showing essentially a clean sweep for Kamala which I find hard to believe

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Huh?

#NEW FINAL battleground polls - full ballot

🔴 ARIZONA: Trump+5
🔴 MICHIGAN: Trump+2
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+1
🔴 GEORGIA: Trump+1
🔵 NEVADA: Harris+3
🔵 WISCONSIN: Harris+3
🔵 NORTH CAROLINA: Harris+4

Electoral College:
🔴 Trump: 280 🏆
🔵 Harris: 258

NYT/Siena | 10/25-11/2 |… pic.twitter.com/PBaB9MKc5r

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

#New General election polls

🔴 Wisconsin - Trump +1
🔴 North Carolina - Trump +2
🔴 Pennsylvania - Trump +1
🔴 Arizona - Trump +3
🟡 Michigan - Tie

Insider advantage #B - LV - 11/2

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024

#NEW FINAL NEW HAMPSHIRE poll

🔵 Harris: 51% (+5)
🔴 Trump: 46%

Last poll: Harris+11

UNH | 10/29-11/2 | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

Our FINAL Sunday Afternoon Crosstabs: Trump 49%, Harris 46% https://t.co/KVUH5ikC4T pic.twitter.com/e7GaWOknoM

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 3, 2024

Saw that guy on with O'Reilly. He seems to know what he's doing. He was less confident about NV and MI, though. NV because of the culinary union in Clark County and MI because it is just very hard to poll.

NEW @InsiderPolling Senate Poll:

WISCONSIN
Hovde (R) 48% (+1)
Baldwin (D-Inc) 47%
.
MICHIGAN
Slotkin (D) 48%
Rogers (R) 48%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Casey (D-Inc) 48% (+1)
McCormick (R) 47%
.
ARIZONA
Gallego (D) 49% (+2)
Lake (R) 47%

LV, 11/1-2 https://t.co/Y6gbsvRuUj

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024

aggiehawg said:

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Saw that guy on with O'Reilly. He seems to know what he's doing. He was less confident about NV and MI, though. NV because of the culinary union in Clark County and MI because it is just very hard to poll.

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They've been good in last two presidential cycles but not good in the off cycles. We shall see if they keep their magic during presidential race elections.

Iowa youth straw poll. Compare the results to prior two cycles

🚨 BREAKING OUT OF IOWA: Trump posts NEW RECORD in Iowa Youth Straw Poll, handily demolishes his own 2016 and 2020 performance

🔴 2024: Trump+30.1
🔴 2020: Trump+18.1
🔴 2016: Trump+10.6

This year, Trump received *61.6% of the vote... Kamala nearly dipped into the 20s!

2024:… pic.twitter.com/tHeFRXMGpx

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

Was looking at your posts on the previous page which I though were Siena Research and NYTimes but they may have just been tagged

The head to head result was more favorable to Harris than the full ballot, which is really what should be looked at IMO

Wow.

Awesome, always knew California was in play.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Iowa youth straw poll. Compare the results to prior two cycles

🚨 BREAKING OUT OF IOWA: Trump posts NEW RECORD in Iowa Youth Straw Poll, handily demolishes his own 2016 and 2020 performance

🔴 2024: Trump+30.1
🔴 2020: Trump+18.1
🔴 2016: Trump+10.6

This year, Trump received *61.6% of the vote... Kamala nearly dipped into the 20s!

2024:… pic.twitter.com/tHeFRXMGpx

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

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Are these voting age youth or under 18?

K-12 kids. Reflective of what their parents are doing.

Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview

"What does this D represent, and the R represent?" - America's greatest pollster pic.twitter.com/RFzSi6MGZl

— SuperHario64 (@SuperHario64) November 3, 2024

Quote:

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Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview

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She's not. Watched it all. She still uses the same polling methodology she has used for decades.Hasn't really addapted to the new technology available. And she proudly says that because her methodology is so outdated, it is very expensive.

Were I the publisher of Des Moines Register (her sole client) I'd do a double take on that one.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview

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She's not. Watched it all. She still uses the same polling methodology she has used for decades.Hasn't really addapted to the new technology available. And she proudly says that because her methodology is so outdated, it is very expensive.

Were I the publisher of Des Moines Register (her sole client) I'd do a double take on that one.

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Well, it doesn't really matter what anyone thinks about the poll. We'll all find out on Tuesday whether her methods are still valid or not.

Quo Vadis? said:

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Uhhh maybe selzer isn't as smart as we thought. From her halperin interview

"What does this D represent, and the R represent?" - America's greatest pollster pic.twitter.com/RFzSi6MGZl

— SuperHario64 (@SuperHario64) November 3, 2024

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She was confused because Ryan couldn't know the crosstabs since they're not published.

Pennsylvania is on track for a major Republican victory.

The gap between 2024 and 2020 is now over 600k, which almost 10% of the entire electorate! pic.twitter.com/1IGuyjM0Xx

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 3, 2024

Quote:

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Well, it doesn't really matter what anyone thinks about the poll. We'll all find out on Tuesday whether her methods are still valid or not.

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Except election polling is all about making adjustments to improve the accuracy of your sample.

And the fact she never reveals her cross tabs is a negative, not a positive. She's too good to allow anyone else to check her work. Apparently a long standing tradition with that particular poll.

aggiehawg said:

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Here are today’s campaign stops…

Notice anything? pic.twitter.com/nwejoWoGCH

— kevin smith (@kevin_smith45) November 3, 2024

No one in Iowa. But Vance in NH?

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Neither Harris or Walz going to PA

We’ll-regarded Muhlenberg College Poll releases last survey of Pennsylvania before elect. It puts Kamala Harris in the lead:

Harris 49
Trump 47https://t.co/UZXFHbb9P9

— John Nichols (@NicholsUprising) November 3, 2024

Then again...

🚨 BREAKING: Nate Silver's election model and national polling average suggests Trump has an 85% chance of winning the election on Tuesday.

POPULAR VOTE:
🔵 Harris: 48.5% (+0.9)
🔴 Trump: 47.6%

ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 85%
🔵 Harris: 14.6%

BREAKDOWN: This is due to… pic.twitter.com/ZP47mt2Ygq

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

It's still going to be close, folks. If you know ANYONE in a swing state that hasn't voted Trump yet, do whatever you can to convince them to get to the polls.

98Ag99Grad said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Here are today’s campaign stops…

Notice anything? pic.twitter.com/nwejoWoGCH

— kevin smith (@kevin_smith45) November 3, 2024

No one in Iowa. But Vance in NH?

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Neither Harris or Walz going to PA

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She has three appearances in PA tomorrow.

I figured it was more of a comment about the fact all three guys have three stops today while she can only show up for one event.

SpreadsheetAg said:

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Pennsylvania is on track for a major Republican victory.

The gap between 2024 and 2020 is now over 600k, which almost 10% of the entire electorate! pic.twitter.com/1IGuyjM0Xx

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 3, 2024

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I would like to think he knows a lot more what's going on than most.

Well regarded by who? That guy writes for the progressive. Where is it in regards to 2020?

https://www.muhlenberg.edu/aboutus/polling/politicselectionssurveys/archivedpolls/final2020paelectionsurvey/

Only off by outside the margin of error last time.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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National @ActiVoteUS poll:

Trump 51% (+1)
Harris 50%

1,000 LV, 10/27-11/2https://t.co/xrRPVGn46d pic.twitter.com/I0jtbUcBb8

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024

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I find the age one interesting. I think the 50--64 group is under represented. It's also the most conservative group

Little birdie says watch New Hampshire.

— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) November 3, 2024

Deace's birds are telling him New Hampshire is competitive.