LegalDrugPusher said:

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Bryanisbest said:

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Overall theme of this thread: big crowds at rallies are a sign you're going to lose. Wait, what ??

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Maybe in general but not necessarily in primary

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Bit of a reach, saying that the size of Trump's rallies have any meaning at all as far as who is going to win or lose the primary. Definitely not a sign he's going to lose. And definitely not a sign he's got an advantage or going to win.

All the rallies tell us at this point is what we already know: Trump is a very good entertainer that can draw crowds. They don't tell us how he's going to govern; and more importantly, whether he will be able to govern effectively.

2020 wasn't long ago. I still remember seeing the number of people that came out for the Lake Travis boat parade for Trump, which was huge - both in the water and on shore. I remember going home and seeing Biden on stage talking to 15-20 vehicles, or a couple of dozen people sitting in Covid circles. None of it mattered.

Bottom line - the size of Trump's rallies gives us no bearing on who's going to win the primary.

LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

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I don't know whether DeSantis can have rally crowds as large as Trump.

But I'm certain a higher % of DeSantis supporters will actually show up to vote on election day to vote for him.

For many people, the rally iself IS the event. Actually casting a vote? Less exciting.

aggie93 said:

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Prosperdick said:

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SCHTICK00 said:

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Prosperdick said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

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I have no idea but I do know the thousands at the rallies for Trump didn't give him a victory last time so if that's the barometer for success it needs recalibration.

I know this is anecdotal but I'll say it anyway. My neighborhood is VERY conservative yet one of my good friends (also an Aggie) confided to me that he and his wife voted Biden and straight ticket Republican down the ballot in 2020.

I tried to convince him not to but he was steadfast...he and his wife were tired of the circus that Trump was leading and wanted it to stop. I think there were a LOT of suburban voters (mostly women) who were tired of mean tweets and wanted it to end.

DeSantis might not generate the circus like rallies Trump has but I guarantee you millions of suburban voters will vote for him that voted against Trump last time.

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Wow, your friends sure showed us

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He regrets it and it will be interesting if Trump wins the nomination if they learned their lesson. I hope they have but the fact remains that there are millions that possess a visceral hatred for Trump who are willing to put in the hours to harvest as many ballots as possible so Orange Man Bad isn't back in the White House.

My anecdotal story was to show that the suburban housewife theory was not just some cover-up for the cheating but that both things could be true. There was a lot of cheating or REALLY bending the rules of harvesting but also a lot of suburban LIV's that wanted the noise to stop. It was a perfect storm for an addled brain loser like Biden to win.

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Truth.

There are a lot of conservatives who just can't get past the personal behavior and childish attitude. Are they cutting off their nose to spite their face? Yep, but it's just really hard for them to vote for someone who not only is so lacking in personal character he puts it in their face day after day. Trump certainly doesn't make it easier on them either and has become less welcoming over time not more welcoming. He is downright hostile to anyone that won't be completely loyal to him. Latest example is the DeSantis insults. Trump seems to really think that if he just insults hard enough that will convince people to vote for him, it's mind boggling that folks think this is still a winning strategy just because he had some success with it in 2016.

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What part of Austin are you in? Pick the place and I'd be happy to buy you a beer.

Retired FBI Agent said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

---

I don't know whether DeSantis can have rally crowds as large as Trump.

But I'm certain a higher % of DeSantis supporters will actually show up to vote on election day to vote for him.

For many people, the rally iself IS the event. Actually casting a vote? Less exciting.

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Yeah sure, a lot of Trump voters are staying home.

Trump voters will definitely show up to vote.

So will the never trumpers

Pookers said:

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Retired FBI Agent said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

---

I don't know whether DeSantis can have rally crowds as large as Trump.

But I'm certain a higher % of DeSantis supporters will actually show up to vote on election day to vote for him.

For many people, the rally iself IS the event. Actually casting a vote? Less exciting.

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Yeah sure, a lot of Trump voters are staying home.

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I didn't say "a lot".

But I do think it's a significant non-zero number, relative to DeSantis supporters.

The 2016 primary was very different than 2024.

Ron DeSantis should lay low and wait for 2028. He has plenty of time. Trump is now way too powerful and will get even more powerful as the economy deteriorates and these ridiculous investigations proceed. Also, Trump has McCarthy with the Republican House supporting him.

If DeSantis lays low and waits for 2028, we likely get 4 more years of Biden. If it's somebody other than Biden, it's almost certain they would beat trump.

Retired FBI Agent said:

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Pookers said:

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Retired FBI Agent said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

---

I don't know whether DeSantis can have rally crowds as large as Trump.

But I'm certain a higher % of DeSantis supporters will actually show up to vote on election day to vote for him.

For many people, the rally iself IS the event. Actually casting a vote? Less exciting.

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Yeah sure, a lot of Trump voters are staying home.

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I didn't say "a lot".

But I do think it's a significant non-zero number, relative to DeSantis supporters.

The 2016 primary was very different than 2024.

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Fan fiction.

AggieUSMC said:

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Size of rally crowds only indicates enthusiasm of support, not number of supporters. Trump had enormous crowd sizes at his rallies that dwarfed anything Biden or Clinton could ever dream of. Yet he lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020.

I don't think this is something the die hard Trump fans understand. An enthusiastically cast vote carries no more weight that a reluctantly cast one does.

Trump support is passionate, not large.

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Voter enthusiasm has won 7 of the last 9 election seasons (midterms included, dem or gop it doesn't matter) 2020 and 2022 have magically not followed the pattern.

Enough people don't like spoiled rich dudes being dicks to prevent Trump from winning.

Embrace that reality. If you want someone even worse than Biden, get Trump on the ticket. He will guarantee victory for whoever runs against him.

LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

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How did the rallies work out for us in 2020?

Agsrback12 said:

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Enough people don't like spoiled rich dudes being dicks to prevent Trump from winning.

Embrace that reality. If you want someone even worse than Biden, get Trump on the ticket. He will guarantee victory for whoever runs against him.

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Hillary says hello

ts5641 said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

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How did the rallies work out for us in 2020?

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Idk John McCain, how did it work for ya in 2008?

Prosperdick said:

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BTKAG97 said:

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Prosperdick said:

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I tried to convince him not to but he was steadfast...he and his wife were tired of the circus that Trump was leading and wanted it to stop.

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And they thought a Biden Admin would not be a larger, more disastrous circus?

I guess, technically, they did get their wish since the mainstream media is what was responsible for the Trump circus and now won't bother to due their damn jobs since it's a Dem in the White House.

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I don't think they thought that far ahead but I think they thought Biden + Republican House and Senate would equal gridlock (which Wall Street loves). Sadly we all know what happened in the Senate and we damn near lost the House.

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Of course they didn't think ahead. Most people can't, won't, don't think strategically. They live in the moment and make decisions in the moment. They just wanted the noise to stop like we've both said.

Look at the financial situation of the American populace. 50% have zero savings because they spend it all. That tells you all you need to know.

We are a largely dumb populace that Iives day to day, researches nothing, and can't foresee consequences of their actions.

eric76 said:

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Hint: In our Electoral College system, popular vote is meaningless. It doesn't matter the slightest who gets the majority of the votes. What matters is the votes in the Electoral College. To go on and on about how one feels about Biden winning the meaningless popular vote only shows how much one believes that the election is all about feelings, not facts.

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It's mystifying the GOP wins anything. If intelligent conservatives like the ones on this board can't recognize Trump is done and will vote for him for spite, or revenge, or to wrong a right, then what chance do we have.
The dems never do this by the way. They got behind biden lock stock and barrel. Never questioned it. They recognized he had the best chance out of their pathetic group who were running and immediately got behind him.
Here we legitimately have an amazing conservative leader, who would most like wipe the floor with any dem in the general, and we're going to nominate a guy who literally can't win anything anymore.
It's madness!

Quote:

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Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

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It's a great question. I've thought about that.

Politically it's a bit tricky.

If he's blowing Trump out of the water and doesn't need Trump voters in the primary, I would say no way. He's got Trump voters in the general, hands down. They're certainly not voting for Biden or any Democrat for that matter. He might need to be a bit punchy for turnout, but he doesn't need to convince Trump supporters on policy. He just needs them to show up.

If he starts to lean into being the nominee, he obviously needs to gun for swing-state moderates and soccer moms. And to win those votes, I think the play for him would be to tone it down a whole lot. The voters that abandoned Trump seem to be fed up with the bull**** theatrics.

I see him going rolled up white sleeve, Carhart, feed store, cup of coffee in hand style. Be the reasonable candidate. And he should look like a workhorse. He's the youngest contender by far and he should play that up.

Swing voters worry that Biden and Trump are too old and too crazy. And they're not wrong. A younger, sober-minded candidate will make them sleep better and get their check mark on election day.

aggie93 said:

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Slyfox07 said:

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I went to a Trump event when he came through Austin a few months ago as part of the American Freedom Tour or whatever...mostly out of curiosity and to spend the day with my dad, who lives there.

Really wish I hadn't. It was a total con.

Tickets were expensive, the event dragged on all damn day, and most of it was a four hour long sales pitch for some BS "beat the stock market" gimmick that thousands of the lemmings there lapped up like thirsty dogs.

Mike Pompeo was there, which was kinda cool, but then some clown from the event kept throwing up a QR code on the jumbotron and telling the crowd to "pressure the person next to you to donate"...

Really felt like a scam and a money grab. Food options were terrible. I'm talking a 30 minute wait in line for cold personal size pizza and a coke. That's it.

When Trump finally did come on stage I was ready to leave, and his speech was boring and canned.

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This is a hard truth a lot of Trump folks should read and understand. A lot of folks still like Trump but this is what he is becoming and it isn't a winning strategy.

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lol this isn't something he's becoming, this is exactly who he's been for decades.

Ags77 said:

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Trump gets his base fired up. They show up to vote also.

But what a lot of you don't get is Trump gets his opponents side out to vote like no other, also.

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Damn right. Brings the dead one out of their graves to show up.

oysterbayAG said:

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Ron DeSantis should lay low and wait for 2028. He has plenty of time. Trump is now way too powerful and will get even more powerful as the economy deteriorates and these ridiculous investigations proceed. Also, Trump has McCarthy with the Republican House supporting him.

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So you want the Democrats to win in 2024?

Really?

Funky Winkerbean said:

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YouBet said:

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Prosperdick said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

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I have no idea but I do know the thousands at the rallies for Trump didn't give him a victory last time so if that's the barometer for success it needs recalibration.

I know this is anecdotal but I'll say it anyway. My neighborhood is VERY conservative yet one of my good friends (also an Aggie) confided to me that he and his wife voted Biden and straight ticket Republican down the ballot in 2020.

I tried to convince him not to but he was steadfast...he and his wife were tired of the circus that Trump was leading and wanted it to stop. I think there were a LOT of suburban voters (mostly women) who were tired of mean tweets and wanted it to end.

DeSantis might not generate the circus like rallies Trump has but I guarantee you millions of suburban voters will vote for him that voted against Trump last time.

---

I've yelled this for two years on here. We have many conservative friends who did this. I didn't believe this theme at first but absolutely do now. Way more conservatives did this than people on here want to admit.

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Trump increased his vote total over 2016.

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By 11MM votes. Hilary had 66MM in 2016. Do you think that 1/6 Hillary voters changed their mind, or that 2020 and all the ****ing insanity that that year was caused voter participation to be higher in 2020 then it will probably ever be again?

Admiral Adama said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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YouBet said:

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Prosperdick said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

---

I have no idea but I do know the thousands at the rallies for Trump didn't give him a victory last time so if that's the barometer for success it needs recalibration.

I know this is anecdotal but I'll say it anyway. My neighborhood is VERY conservative yet one of my good friends (also an Aggie) confided to me that he and his wife voted Biden and straight ticket Republican down the ballot in 2020.

I tried to convince him not to but he was steadfast...he and his wife were tired of the circus that Trump was leading and wanted it to stop. I think there were a LOT of suburban voters (mostly women) who were tired of mean tweets and wanted it to end.

DeSantis might not generate the circus like rallies Trump has but I guarantee you millions of suburban voters will vote for him that voted against Trump last time.

---

I've yelled this for two years on here. We have many conservative friends who did this. I didn't believe this theme at first but absolutely do now. Way more conservatives did this than people on here want to admit.

---

Trump increased his vote total over 2016.

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By 11MM votes. Hilary had 66MM in 2016. Do you think that 1/6 Hillary voters changed their mind, or that 2020 and all the ****ing insanity that that year was caused voter participation to be higher in 2020 then it will probably ever be again?

---

What doesn't square is the voter registration in spring of 2020. The GOP (trump!) was out-registering the dems 3:1 (4:1 in some states), the Dem primaries actually meant something, trump was unopposed. Yet we are to believe highly enthusiastic feb/mar GOP voters switched to Dem (low energy basement dwelling candidate) in Nov. Oh, ok...sure

The Debt said:

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Admiral Adama said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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YouBet said:

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Prosperdick said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

---

I have no idea but I do know the thousands at the rallies for Trump didn't give him a victory last time so if that's the barometer for success it needs recalibration.

I know this is anecdotal but I'll say it anyway. My neighborhood is VERY conservative yet one of my good friends (also an Aggie) confided to me that he and his wife voted Biden and straight ticket Republican down the ballot in 2020.

I tried to convince him not to but he was steadfast...he and his wife were tired of the circus that Trump was leading and wanted it to stop. I think there were a LOT of suburban voters (mostly women) who were tired of mean tweets and wanted it to end.

DeSantis might not generate the circus like rallies Trump has but I guarantee you millions of suburban voters will vote for him that voted against Trump last time.

---

I've yelled this for two years on here. We have many conservative friends who did this. I didn't believe this theme at first but absolutely do now. Way more conservatives did this than people on here want to admit.

---

Trump increased his vote total over 2016.

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By 11MM votes. Hilary had 66MM in 2016. Do you think that 1/6 Hillary voters changed their mind, or that 2020 and all the ****ing insanity that that year was caused voter participation to be higher in 2020 then it will probably ever be again?

---

What doesn't square is the voter registration in spring of 2020. The GOP (trump!) was out-registering the dems 3:1 (4:1 in some states), the Dem primaries actually meant something, trump was unopposed. Yet we are to believe highly enthusiastic feb/mar GOP voters switched to Dem (low energy basement dwelling candidate) in Nov. Oh, ok...sure

---

A few things. How many additional voters registered to vote? The GOP adding 200,000 new voters to the voting roll to the Democrats 50,000 barely moves the needle if there are 15 million people registered to vote. Ratios don't matter, raw vote totals do. Depending on the state, not affiliated voters don't vote in party primaries, but they do get to vote in the general election. The data is fairly clear which way independents broke.

Admiral Adama said:

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The Debt said:

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Admiral Adama said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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YouBet said:

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Prosperdick said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

---

I have no idea but I do know the thousands at the rallies for Trump didn't give him a victory last time so if that's the barometer for success it needs recalibration.

I know this is anecdotal but I'll say it anyway. My neighborhood is VERY conservative yet one of my good friends (also an Aggie) confided to me that he and his wife voted Biden and straight ticket Republican down the ballot in 2020.

I tried to convince him not to but he was steadfast...he and his wife were tired of the circus that Trump was leading and wanted it to stop. I think there were a LOT of suburban voters (mostly women) who were tired of mean tweets and wanted it to end.

DeSantis might not generate the circus like rallies Trump has but I guarantee you millions of suburban voters will vote for him that voted against Trump last time.

---

I've yelled this for two years on here. We have many conservative friends who did this. I didn't believe this theme at first but absolutely do now. Way more conservatives did this than people on here want to admit.

---

Trump increased his vote total over 2016.

---

By 11MM votes. Hilary had 66MM in 2016. Do you think that 1/6 Hillary voters changed their mind, or that 2020 and all the ****ing insanity that that year was caused voter participation to be higher in 2020 then it will probably ever be again?

---

What doesn't square is the voter registration in spring of 2020. The GOP (trump!) was out-registering the dems 3:1 (4:1 in some states), the Dem primaries actually meant something, trump was unopposed. Yet we are to believe highly enthusiastic feb/mar GOP voters switched to Dem (low energy basement dwelling candidate) in Nov. Oh, ok...sure

---

A few things. How many additional voters registered to vote? The GOP adding 200,000 new voters to the voting roll to the Democrats 50,000 barely moves the needle if there are 15 million people registered to vote. Ratios don't matter, raw vote totals do. Depending on the state, not affiliated voters don't vote in party primaries, but they do get to vote in the general election. The data is fairly clear which way independents broke.

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Where did the other 14.75mil come from in your hypothetical? They got registered by mail in October? People going door-to-door getting signatures in the middle of a pandemic...

This is very similar to the 2016 Democratic Primary.

The DNC had already made up its mind they were nominating Hillary and kicked Bernie to the curb because they didn't think Bernie could win a general election (and Wall Street would have lost their minds if Bernie got anywhere near the White House, so I think that played into it).

They underestimated everything.

They underestimated the vitriol middle America had for Hilary, they had no ****ing clue that Trump was the political equivalent of the Night King, and they missed the very weird fact that there was this very odd grouping of voters that appreciated Bernie and Trump at the same time (it's a real thing, look it up).

If the DNC had nominated Bernie, I think he would have won.

Primaries can be weird. Parties sometimes can't get out of their own way.

It's not complicated. The country is about 45-45 split. And 10 % in the middle. Trump gets a huge turnout of his 45% because they love him and he gets a huge turnout of the 45% of the other side because they hate him. His HIGH UNFAVORABLES and the LARGE group of Never Trumpers from the middle beat him. His problem now will be some of his followers (I have a few friends in this group) have peeled off and no longer want to support him. ( mainly because of the way he handled his defeat in 2020).

Ags77 said:

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It's not complicated. The country is about 45-45 split. And 10 % in the middle. Trump gets a huge turnout of his 45% because they love him and he gets a huge turnout of the 45% of the other side because they hate him. His HIGH UNFAVORABLES and the LARGE group of Never Trumpers from the middle beat him. His problem now will be some of his followers (I have a few friends in this group) have peeled off and no longer want to support him. ( mainly because of the way he handled his defeat in 2020).

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This is actually the incorrect thinking of pre-2008 electioneering.

Modern GOTV efforts focus on high turnout of geographies that support your candidate. Neither party wastes resources for turnout in 50/50 precincts.

The Debt said:

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Admiral Adama said:

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The Debt said:

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Admiral Adama said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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YouBet said:

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Prosperdick said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

---

I have no idea but I do know the thousands at the rallies for Trump didn't give him a victory last time so if that's the barometer for success it needs recalibration.

I know this is anecdotal but I'll say it anyway. My neighborhood is VERY conservative yet one of my good friends (also an Aggie) confided to me that he and his wife voted Biden and straight ticket Republican down the ballot in 2020.

I tried to convince him not to but he was steadfast...he and his wife were tired of the circus that Trump was leading and wanted it to stop. I think there were a LOT of suburban voters (mostly women) who were tired of mean tweets and wanted it to end.

DeSantis might not generate the circus like rallies Trump has but I guarantee you millions of suburban voters will vote for him that voted against Trump last time.

---

I've yelled this for two years on here. We have many conservative friends who did this. I didn't believe this theme at first but absolutely do now. Way more conservatives did this than people on here want to admit.

---

Trump increased his vote total over 2016.

---

By 11MM votes. Hilary had 66MM in 2016. Do you think that 1/6 Hillary voters changed their mind, or that 2020 and all the ****ing insanity that that year was caused voter participation to be higher in 2020 then it will probably ever be again?

---

What doesn't square is the voter registration in spring of 2020. The GOP (trump!) was out-registering the dems 3:1 (4:1 in some states), the Dem primaries actually meant something, trump was unopposed. Yet we are to believe highly enthusiastic feb/mar GOP voters switched to Dem (low energy basement dwelling candidate) in Nov. Oh, ok...sure

---

A few things. How many additional voters registered to vote? The GOP adding 200,000 new voters to the voting roll to the Democrats 50,000 barely moves the needle if there are 15 million people registered to vote. Ratios don't matter, raw vote totals do. Depending on the state, not affiliated voters don't vote in party primaries, but they do get to vote in the general election. The data is fairly clear which way independents broke.

---

Where did the other 14.75mil come from in your hypothetical? They got registered by mail in October? People going door-to-door getting signatures in the middle of a pandemic...

---

I pulled the number out of my ass to make a point about math and why registration ratios aren't the whole story. You were the one that made a claim that the registration should've foretold a Donald Trump victory. Go ahead and show your work. How many people Donald Trump registered to vote versus the Democrats and how that compared to the existing registrations. Unless they were significantly increasing the percentage of voters on the voter roll in the states that it mattered, and you have the work to prove that that they did, saying that registrations are meaningful proxy for who should've won the election isn't a mathematically accurate statement.

A lot of people on here consistently under estimate the NEVER TRUMPERS voting block. Take that enthusiasm away and we may see a more normal turnout on the Dem side .

annie88 said:

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agAngeldad said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

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Scary thing it Biden didnt and still won.

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Biden didn't "win"

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Mail in ballots and mules for the "win".

Still amazed that the media pushed a lying, pedo, moronic sack of crap into the White House.

The 2016 turnout had a lot of fuel sources.

Of course, Trump. I'm not a fan, but there's no debating that he dumped more gasoline on the political fire than any candidate in the history of American politics. He didn't drive up numbers just based on the people voting for him, he drove up turnout among voters that waited in line to vote against him.

And then there's Hillary. Same thing to a lesser degree. Enormous turnout for her, particularly among women wanting to see the first female President. And then, similar to Trump, a ton of people showing up simply to vote for anybody but her.

That turnout spike wasn't necessarily driven by two great candidates so much as it was driven by two very polarizing candidates.

It was a paradigm shift in American politics. It burned the gray areas to the ground. Liberals are now communists and conservatives are now fascists.

I hope there's a return to center, but I don't see that coming anytime soon.

Admiral Adama said:

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The Debt said:

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Admiral Adama said:

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The Debt said:

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Admiral Adama said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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YouBet said:

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Prosperdick said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/massive-pre-dawn-lines-form-in-waco-tx-this-morning-for-historic-trump-rally-ted-nugent-announces-i-will-unleash-a-fire-breathing-star-spangled-banner/

Honest question: will DeSantis have campaign rallies and will he have thousands attend like Trump?

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I have no idea but I do know the thousands at the rallies for Trump didn't give him a victory last time so if that's the barometer for success it needs recalibration.

I know this is anecdotal but I'll say it anyway. My neighborhood is VERY conservative yet one of my good friends (also an Aggie) confided to me that he and his wife voted Biden and straight ticket Republican down the ballot in 2020.

I tried to convince him not to but he was steadfast...he and his wife were tired of the circus that Trump was leading and wanted it to stop. I think there were a LOT of suburban voters (mostly women) who were tired of mean tweets and wanted it to end.

DeSantis might not generate the circus like rallies Trump has but I guarantee you millions of suburban voters will vote for him that voted against Trump last time.

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I've yelled this for two years on here. We have many conservative friends who did this. I didn't believe this theme at first but absolutely do now. Way more conservatives did this than people on here want to admit.

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Trump increased his vote total over 2016.

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By 11MM votes. Hilary had 66MM in 2016. Do you think that 1/6 Hillary voters changed their mind, or that 2020 and all the ****ing insanity that that year was caused voter participation to be higher in 2020 then it will probably ever be again?

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What doesn't square is the voter registration in spring of 2020. The GOP (trump!) was out-registering the dems 3:1 (4:1 in some states), the Dem primaries actually meant something, trump was unopposed. Yet we are to believe highly enthusiastic feb/mar GOP voters switched to Dem (low energy basement dwelling candidate) in Nov. Oh, ok...sure

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A few things. How many additional voters registered to vote? The GOP adding 200,000 new voters to the voting roll to the Democrats 50,000 barely moves the needle if there are 15 million people registered to vote. Ratios don't matter, raw vote totals do. Depending on the state, not affiliated voters don't vote in party primaries, but they do get to vote in the general election. The data is fairly clear which way independents broke.

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Where did the other 14.75mil come from in your hypothetical? They got registered by mail in October? People going door-to-door getting signatures in the middle of a pandemic...

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I pulled the number out of my ass to make a point about math and why registration ratios aren't the whole story. You were the one that made a claim that the registration should've foretold a Donald Trump victory. Go ahead and show your work. How many people Donald Trump registered to vote versus the Democrats and how that compared to the existing registrations. Unless they were significantly increasing the percentage of voters on the voter roll in the states that it mattered, and you have the work to prove that that they did, saying that registrations are meaningful proxy for who should've won the election isn't a mathematically accurate statement.

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The numbers "out of your ass" fail to make your illustration reasonable. You can't just say the ratio is march is useless because "a large number of registrations makes the march numbers marginalized." What you are saying is hypothetically correct but there is a chain of events that have to occur to make "the large number" exist.

To get "15m" new registrations individual counties have to process new voters. These new voters have to be affirmed through a volunteer registrar who has to be previously vetted by the county clerk.

Voters don't just magically get registered to vote.

I'm not saying this to be combative, I'm simply saying Trump had the ground game in March. Yet we believe Bidens people somehow managed to outwork the massive groundswell by the MAGA-volunteers? The ones that had 8-month and massive numerical headstart?

You want evidence, it's all on states' SOS websites. Hell man, trump outperformed the Democrat field in votes in March, nearly doubling the number of votes in some battleground states. Imagine that Trump beating Beto/biden/bloomberg/sanders/kamala combined...when he is unopposed. Yet we have to believe the Dems 20x their participation when the basement candidate gets nominated?

TxAgswin said:

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Liberals are now communists and conservatives are now fascists.

I hope there's a return to center, but I don't see that coming anytime soon.

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Only one side has been ok with using government to punish political enemies.

Yea...they are totally the same. Radicals all.

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Voters don't just magically get registered to vote.

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Actually, in some states they do. They have a set number of days to opt out of being registered, else they are. Michigan is like that, IIRC.

Part of the ERIC, CEIR, Zuckerberg use of EBUs. Eligible but unregistered voters as determined by ERIC and CEIR.