Definitely Not A Cop said:
Aggies1322 said:
texagbeliever said:
CSTXAg92 said:
bmks270 said:
CSTXAg92 said:
I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.
15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?
Don't forget the potential market disruptors:
- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).
- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.
- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.
- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.
- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).
Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.
Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.
BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.
Why is there a misconception out there that the US can't impact BTC? Would it not be impactful if the US decided overnight that BTC was being used for too many shady reasons, and decided to sanction any company that allowed BTC to be held by consumers? Say they went Coinbase/Robinhood or any other crypto exchange/wallet and pushed them to take BTC off of their services? Wouldn't that hurt BTC? Because then the average retail investor/owner would likely sell, and not go through the trouble of buying it back in other ways?
Or do I have that wrong? I legitimately don't know.
The US can ban anything they want. I don't see them being more authoritarian than China on it though, and they have not been able to stop their citizens from skirting the laws.
I will admit that I do laugh at the "BTC is only used for drugs" argument. Nothing funds more cartels and terrorist groups than the USD.
Digital assets are transferable accross the internet. You need a physical location to swap cash. For example, ransomeware attackers wouldn't really be effective if they didn't have digital currency, they'd get caught at the point of cash exchange since they'd have to physically make a trade.
It's why criminals were the first to adopt digital currency.
This isn't unique to Bitcoin.
The ledger and know your customer is making Bitcoin less useful for crime. But shady exchanges overseas don't care if criminals are using their exchange to convert to government back currencies.
Hamas for example uses Bitcoin a lot. I'm sure Iran, China, Russia, and probably even NATO are using cryptos and shady exchanges to finance activity they want kept secret.