Bitcoin on the path to irrelevance?

112,540 Views | 1822 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by Yukon Cornelius
texagbeliever
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Definitely Not A Cop said:

texagbeliever said:

Definitely Not A Cop said:

texagbeliever said:

CSTXAg92 said:

bmks270 said:

CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?

Don't forget the potential market disruptors:

- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).

- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.

- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.

- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.

- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).

Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.

Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.

BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.


Price of BTC would rise while they are buying while the price of their native currency would fall as they are (I'm assuming) printing more to obtain it. The price of BTC would fall if they sell, but that new currency has still been printed, so their native currency remains weak.

Maybe I'm missing something. But it seems short sighted.
It would potentially hurt Russia more in terms of capital cost. It would however likely psychologically do more harm to democratic/free market economies more. You lower the net income of people in Russia by 25% through inflation nothing happens to those in charge. You lower the net income of Americans by 25%... leadership is going to be changed real fast.


You could make the same doomsday scenario with gold, stocks, dollars, anything though, couldn't you?
The difference would be you know who is causing it. BTC is a blackbox. You don't know if the only people selling and buying are the same person!
Aggies1322
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AG
texagbeliever said:

CSTXAg92 said:

bmks270 said:

CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?

Don't forget the potential market disruptors:

- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).

- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.

- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.

- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.

- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).

Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.

Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.

BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.

Why is there a misconception out there that the US can't impact BTC? Would it not be impactful if the US decided overnight that BTC was being used for too many shady reasons, and decided to sanction any company that allowed BTC to be held by consumers? Say they went Coinbase/Robinhood or any other crypto exchange/wallet and pushed them to take BTC off of their services? Wouldn't that hurt BTC? Because then the average retail investor/owner would likely sell, and not go through the trouble of buying it back in other ways?

Or do I have that wrong? I legitimately don't know.
texagbeliever
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Aggies1322 said:

texagbeliever said:

CSTXAg92 said:

bmks270 said:

CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?

Don't forget the potential market disruptors:

- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).

- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.

- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.

- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.

- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).

Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.

Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.

BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.

Why is there a misconception out there that the US can't impact BTC? Would it not be impactful if the US decided overnight that BTC was being used for too many shady reasons, and decided to sanction any company that allowed BTC to be held by consumers? Say they went Coinbase/Robinhood or any other crypto exchange/wallet and pushed them to take BTC off of their services? Wouldn't that hurt BTC? Because then the average retail investor/owner would likely sell, and not go through the trouble of buying it back in other ways?

Or do I have that wrong? I legitimately don't know.
I'm assuming you are adding to my point. The USA government could easily enact policies or use the DOJ/IRS/CIA/FBI to find some reason to ban it as a usable currency in the united states.
TexasRebel
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AG
It would probably look more like incentivizing ISPs to block ports and filter traffic.
Definitely Not A Cop
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Aggies1322 said:

texagbeliever said:

CSTXAg92 said:

bmks270 said:

CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?

Don't forget the potential market disruptors:

- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).

- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.

- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.

- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.

- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).

Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.

Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.

BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.

Why is there a misconception out there that the US can't impact BTC? Would it not be impactful if the US decided overnight that BTC was being used for too many shady reasons, and decided to sanction any company that allowed BTC to be held by consumers? Say they went Coinbase/Robinhood or any other crypto exchange/wallet and pushed them to take BTC off of their services? Wouldn't that hurt BTC? Because then the average retail investor/owner would likely sell, and not go through the trouble of buying it back in other ways?

Or do I have that wrong? I legitimately don't know.


The US can ban anything they want. I don't see them being more authoritarian than China on it though, and they have not been able to stop their citizens from skirting the laws.

I will admit that I do laugh at the "BTC is only used for drugs" argument. Nothing funds more cartels and terrorist groups than the USD.
Aggies1322
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AG
Definitely Not A Cop said:

Aggies1322 said:

texagbeliever said:

CSTXAg92 said:

bmks270 said:

CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?

Don't forget the potential market disruptors:

- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).

- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.

- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.

- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.

- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).

Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.

Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.

BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.

Why is there a misconception out there that the US can't impact BTC? Would it not be impactful if the US decided overnight that BTC was being used for too many shady reasons, and decided to sanction any company that allowed BTC to be held by consumers? Say they went Coinbase/Robinhood or any other crypto exchange/wallet and pushed them to take BTC off of their services? Wouldn't that hurt BTC? Because then the average retail investor/owner would likely sell, and not go through the trouble of buying it back in other ways?

Or do I have that wrong? I legitimately don't know.


The US can ban anything they want. I don't see them being more authoritarian than China on it though, and they have not been able to stop their citizens from skirting the laws.

I will admit that I do laugh at the "BTC is only used for drugs" argument. Nothing funds more cartels and terrorist groups than the USD.

The difference between the US and China being the intermediaries being located in the US and therefore subject to US scrutiny. Like I said, there would have to be an event triggering this scrutiny. I am not convinced one way or another on the crypto situation, which is why I stay out of it.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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texagbeliever said:

drcrinum said:

Do you realize that the U.S. Government is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin? (via criminal confiscations)
I read that. So they could potentially flood the market with sells. Or they could flood the market with buys running up to the november election in 2024. That would pump up the economy and potentially shoot it to new all time highs without obvious money printing.

Then after Democrats win in Nov they pull the rug out. They declare capitalism bad and use that as the catalyst to take down the public trading market. Seize 401ks, etc.
If Republicans win, then democrats flood the market between Nov-Jan and cause a major economic crash hindering any potential progress Trump could make.

Neither of the above sound that unreasonable...


The US govt historically has auctioned off some.significant hauls from dark market busts. These have only ever minority affected the market. Tim Draper is a good name to research when he bought the Silk road Bitcoin.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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Aggies1322 said:

texagbeliever said:

CSTXAg92 said:

bmks270 said:

CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?

Don't forget the potential market disruptors:

- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).

- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.

- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.

- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.

- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).

Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.

Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.

BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.

Why is there a misconception out there that the US can't impact BTC? Would it not be impactful if the US decided overnight that BTC was being used for too many shady reasons, and decided to sanction any company that allowed BTC to be held by consumers? Say they went Coinbase/Robinhood or any other crypto exchange/wallet and pushed them to take BTC off of their services? Wouldn't that hurt BTC? Because then the average retail investor/owner would likely sell, and not go through the trouble of buying it back in other ways?

Or do I have that wrong? I legitimately don't know.


The US can negatively impact Americans. They cannot enforce worldwide very effectively, or at least only as effectively as "the war on drugs/crime" [ineffectively]
Aggies1322
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AG
Algorithmic Epiphany said:

Aggies1322 said:

texagbeliever said:

CSTXAg92 said:

bmks270 said:

CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?

Don't forget the potential market disruptors:

- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).

- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.

- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.

- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.

- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).

Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.

Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.

BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.

Why is there a misconception out there that the US can't impact BTC? Would it not be impactful if the US decided overnight that BTC was being used for too many shady reasons, and decided to sanction any company that allowed BTC to be held by consumers? Say they went Coinbase/Robinhood or any other crypto exchange/wallet and pushed them to take BTC off of their services? Wouldn't that hurt BTC? Because then the average retail investor/owner would likely sell, and not go through the trouble of buying it back in other ways?

Or do I have that wrong? I legitimately don't know.


The US can negatively impact Americans. They cannot enforce worldwide very effectively, or at least only as effectively as "the war on drugs/crime" [ineffectively]

If the US affects the intermediaries - wouldn't that have wide sweeping effects outside the US as well? Binance for instance (the largest crypto exchange I believe) is being targeted by the US Govt. They have plead guilty to money laundering (and will pay a $4 billion fine) and have been sued due to alleged connection with hamas. If these exchanges are successfully brought down, you would have to think the value of bitcoin is likely to suffer as investors lose their accessibility? Right?
Yukon Cornelius
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It's actually the opposite. Powers that be cant control it.
Guppy91
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5 hours since the last post… did it go to zero yet? Oh, wait. Maybe another all time high by morning like beanie babies and tulips my bad.
p-townag
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I was told not to wait too long for the beef prices to go up before I had a dead cow. Luckily I only had to wait 24 hours.
Guppy91
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Those damn Beck brothers are planning to drop clover bales on yer cattle pastures in 3,2,1… saw it on Reddit.
Mongolian Christmas
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It's like taking a porno from a moron.m (can't say ****** anymore). Bits goes up…I buy more real money: silver and gold. Loving this.
Kraft Punk
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p-townag said:

I was told not to wait too long for the beef prices to go up before I had a dead cow. Luckily I only had to wait 24 hours.


Trashbag
double b
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AG
Loving this! Up 60% on my investment of .15 BTC.
p-townag
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Kraft Punk said:

p-townag said:

I was told not to wait too long for the beef prices to go up before I had a dead cow. Luckily I only had to wait 24 hours.


Trashbag

Haha. Cry harder.
bmks270
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AG
PA24 said:

Bitcoin = One world currency




Wrong.

Currencies compete. EVERY crypto included.

Bitcoin is a terrible currency because it doesn't scale. Transactions are too expensive to be useful. That's why other cryptos are used more for transactions.

Research other cryptos. My opinion is that better crypto solutions exist than Bitcoin.
bmks270
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CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


I think interest in BTC will wane when people realize it has subpar utility outside of being a collectible.

Bitcoin has devolved into a durable Beanie Baby with a fixed supply. Otherwise, everything it does, there exists better cheaper solutions. But it's good for generating trade fees and now ETF management fees, so exchanges will promote it.

I suppose BTCs appeal as a limited mint collectors item will sustain some demand. But we saw what happened to NFTs when people realized they're limited utility. It just hasn't caught up with the Bitcoin investors yet that it's nothing more than a collectible.
MRB10
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This small, but notable, narrative progression from you makes me think I'm not allocated enough to BTC. BULLISH!
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
bmks270
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AG
Definitely Not A Cop said:

Aggies1322 said:

texagbeliever said:

CSTXAg92 said:

bmks270 said:

CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?

Don't forget the potential market disruptors:

- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).

- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.

- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.

- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.

- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).

Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.

Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.

BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.

Why is there a misconception out there that the US can't impact BTC? Would it not be impactful if the US decided overnight that BTC was being used for too many shady reasons, and decided to sanction any company that allowed BTC to be held by consumers? Say they went Coinbase/Robinhood or any other crypto exchange/wallet and pushed them to take BTC off of their services? Wouldn't that hurt BTC? Because then the average retail investor/owner would likely sell, and not go through the trouble of buying it back in other ways?

Or do I have that wrong? I legitimately don't know.


The US can ban anything they want. I don't see them being more authoritarian than China on it though, and they have not been able to stop their citizens from skirting the laws.

I will admit that I do laugh at the "BTC is only used for drugs" argument. Nothing funds more cartels and terrorist groups than the USD.


Digital assets are transferable accross the internet. You need a physical location to swap cash. For example, ransomeware attackers wouldn't really be effective if they didn't have digital currency, they'd get caught at the point of cash exchange since they'd have to physically make a trade.

It's why criminals were the first to adopt digital currency.

This isn't unique to Bitcoin.

The ledger and know your customer is making Bitcoin less useful for crime. But shady exchanges overseas don't care if criminals are using their exchange to convert to government back currencies.

Hamas for example uses Bitcoin a lot. I'm sure Iran, China, Russia, and probably even NATO are using cryptos and shady exchanges to finance activity they want kept secret.
ac04
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bull market isn't 100% official until bmks shills litecoin again. you can tell it's eating him up inside, it won't be long now.
johnnyblaze36
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AG
At the current price, all I can think about is the poor guy that paid 680 million dollars for two pizzas.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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bmks270 said:

Definitely Not A Cop said:

Aggies1322 said:

texagbeliever said:

CSTXAg92 said:

bmks270 said:

CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?

Don't forget the potential market disruptors:

- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).

- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.

- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.

- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.

- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).

Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.

Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.

BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.

Why is there a misconception out there that the US can't impact BTC? Would it not be impactful if the US decided overnight that BTC was being used for too many shady reasons, and decided to sanction any company that allowed BTC to be held by consumers? Say they went Coinbase/Robinhood or any other crypto exchange/wallet and pushed them to take BTC off of their services? Wouldn't that hurt BTC? Because then the average retail investor/owner would likely sell, and not go through the trouble of buying it back in other ways?

Or do I have that wrong? I legitimately don't know.


The US can ban anything they want. I don't see them being more authoritarian than China on it though, and they have not been able to stop their citizens from skirting the laws.

I will admit that I do laugh at the "BTC is only used for drugs" argument. Nothing funds more cartels and terrorist groups than the USD.


Digital assets are transferable accross the internet. You need a physical location to swap cash. For example, ransomeware attackers wouldn't really be effective if they didn't have digital currency, they'd get caught at the point of cash exchange since they'd have to physically make a trade.

It's why criminals were the first to adopt digital currency.

This isn't unique to Bitcoin.

The ledger and know your customer is making Bitcoin less useful for crime. But shady exchanges overseas don't care if criminals are using their exchange to convert to government back currencies.

Hamas for example uses Bitcoin a lot. I'm sure Iran, China, Russia, and probably even NATO are using cryptos and shady exchanges to finance activity they want kept secret.


Someone gets their news from Elizabeth Warren.

Can you support the claim that Hamas uses bitcoin "a lot?"

Algorithmic Epiphany
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Don't worry about that little guy. He stayed in and mining. He's got plenty of bitcoin.
bmks270
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AG
Algorithmic Epiphany said:

bmks270 said:

Definitely Not A Cop said:

Aggies1322 said:

texagbeliever said:

CSTXAg92 said:

bmks270 said:

CSTXAg92 said:

I think BTC is here to stay, and because there is a finite supply (21 million coins) will ultimately end up well north of $1M per coin, perhaps even in my lifetime - but certainly in my children's lifetime.


15 Trillion dollar market cap on circulating supply. Maybe. That would put it on par with gold. But what will drive that? Purely inflation from today and loss of USD value?

Don't forget the potential market disruptors:

- Quantum computing.
Might disrupt the price a bit when lost wallets that don't get an encryption update are cracked. Estimated 6 Million Bitcoin are permanently lost (almost 30% of supply!!!).

- Tether collapse.
They've been verified to issue unbacked tether to exchange for Bitcoin. History of shady practices and leadership.

- Run out of new adopters.
Market just crawls sideways forever and speculators and traders keep it volatile while never really hitting new highs.

- Coinbase hack.
Would collapse crypto markets completely.

- Concentration of mining.
Mining costs lead most to halt operation resulting in as single pool gaining majority hash power. Bitcoin would no longer be decentralized. (Although I'd expect competing governments to fund secret mining at any cost to prevent this).

Bitcoin is not a risk free asset so even if you love Bitcoin, I wouldn't put more than a single digit percent of your assets into it.
All excellent points. That said, I still think anyone who buys and holds BTC will look like a genius to their heirs.
What if a government like say Russia or Iran announce they are using BTC. Well now good ol federal government USA wants to get involved because now they want to put economic pressure on Russia/Iran but they can't because they have no way of impacting BTC.

Or Russia & Iran realize if one day they decide to cause a massive sell off of BTC (keep in mind no trading rules in place like normal stocks) that would cause significant damage to the stock market with large BTC miners taking massive hits and likely triggering a broad scale sell off.

BTC can be weaponized far more easily then people realize.

Why is there a misconception out there that the US can't impact BTC? Would it not be impactful if the US decided overnight that BTC was being used for too many shady reasons, and decided to sanction any company that allowed BTC to be held by consumers? Say they went Coinbase/Robinhood or any other crypto exchange/wallet and pushed them to take BTC off of their services? Wouldn't that hurt BTC? Because then the average retail investor/owner would likely sell, and not go through the trouble of buying it back in other ways?

Or do I have that wrong? I legitimately don't know.


The US can ban anything they want. I don't see them being more authoritarian than China on it though, and they have not been able to stop their citizens from skirting the laws.

I will admit that I do laugh at the "BTC is only used for drugs" argument. Nothing funds more cartels and terrorist groups than the USD.


Digital assets are transferable accross the internet. You need a physical location to swap cash. For example, ransomeware attackers wouldn't really be effective if they didn't have digital currency, they'd get caught at the point of cash exchange since they'd have to physically make a trade.

It's why criminals were the first to adopt digital currency.

This isn't unique to Bitcoin.

The ledger and know your customer is making Bitcoin less useful for crime. But shady exchanges overseas don't care if criminals are using their exchange to convert to government back currencies.

Hamas for example uses Bitcoin a lot. I'm sure Iran, China, Russia, and probably even NATO are using cryptos and shady exchanges to finance activity they want kept secret.


Someone gets their news from Elizabeth Warren.

Can you support the claim that Hamas uses bitcoin "a lot?"




It seems more recently Bitcoin has been cut off as a financing tool. But it was prior to the crack down. Anyway, all direct peer to peer digital currencies may be used this way, so it's not necessarily a knock against BTC compared to others. The peer to peer feature is what actually provides demand in the first place since it doesn't require a bank to sanction the activity (which is something criminals would care about more than non-criminals).


https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4273988-hamas-just-learned-a-brutal-lesson-about-bitcoin-can-senators-also-learn-it/
TexasRebel
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AG
p-townag said:

I was told not to wait too long for the beef prices to go up before I had a dead cow. Luckily I only had to wait 24 hours.


I'm proud of you for selling the cow.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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Bitcoin is for enemies.

The term criminal can encapsulate you suddenly and viciously when you live in the wrong government.

Tomorrow you could be a criminal by misgendering someone. Accounts seized.

Nothing wrong with freedom money.
MRB10
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I prefer cash for my criminal activity. It's still the most popular currency for such endeavors.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
p-townag
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I'm proud of myself for continuously buying more cattle since 2017. Will never sell. Only buy.
bmks270
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Algorithmic Epiphany said:

Bitcoin is for enemies.

The term criminal can encapsulate you suddenly and viciously when you live in the wrong government.

Tomorrow you could be a criminal by misgendering someone. Accounts seized.

Nothing wrong with freedom money.


Yes. Any activity not sanctioned by government or banks.

Definitely Not A Cop
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CATO estimates illegal transactions made up .24% of all cryptocurrency transactions last year, per the link below. Definitely a far cry from the claim that they are only used by criminals.

Figure 6 in the link below.

https://www.cato.org/publications/money-across-borders-how-cryptocurrency-has-opened-global-exchange#remittances-done-differently
Krombopulos Michael
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Q: How do you know you're over the target?
A: When you start catching flak.


Krombopulos Michael
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which one of y'all is this?


Algorithmic Epiphany
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New All Time High, 75% of bitcoin New ATHs results in a doubling in price in 18 days or less.

Who wants to gamble against ~$140k bitcoin in 18 days?
 
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