Rolling blackouts in Texas

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richardag
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In reply to Zobel • 4:02p, 2/16/21
Zobel said:
Can someone who knows the trading side explain this?

https://www.kvue.com/amp/article/news/local/texas-ercot-power-outage-energy-demand-price-change/269-53ab63e2-8dcf-4485-8b9b-be6ad75316b4

Sounds like government sponsored price gouging , but only to a certain limited extent.

I know there must be a better explanation but I am cold and upset.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
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Zobel
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In reply to Whitetail • 4:03p, 2/16/21
AG
Orly? Which low emissions system can burn liquid with guaranteed NOx and CO levels without steam or water injection? (Honest question, I did not know this was possible)
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richardag
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In reply to [removed post] • 4:12p, 2/16/21
Sasappis said:
NomadicAggie said:
This is incorrect on so many levels. Just plain wrong. You are upset, think you know something, and are on here making accusations you know nothing about. I'd be careful.


Can you provide some clarification on what specifically you are saying he/she is wrong about?

I too would like more information.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
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NomadicAggie
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In reply to AggieBaseball06 • 4:45p, 2/16/21
AG
"ERCOT is reporting that nearly 45,000 MWs (all types) are offline. Although VST prepped in advance of the Vortex with additional preventative maintenance, fuel stockpiling, windbreaks, and large radiant heaters, it appears that the frozen temperatures are creating a struggle to maintain pipeline compression, which has been a significant stumbling block toward maintaining full electric plant output. VST continues to work to procure additional gas supplies where possible."
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itsyourboypookie
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In reply to NomadicAggie • 4:47p, 2/16/21
NomadicAggie said:
"ERCOT is reporting that nearly 45,000 MWs (all types) are offline. Although VST prepped in advance of the Vortex with additional preventative maintenance, fuel stockpiling, windbreaks, and large radiant heaters, it appears that the frozen temperatures are creating a struggle to maintain pipeline compression, which has been a significant stumbling block toward maintaining full electric plant output. VST continues to work to procure additional gas supplies where possible."


My Dearborn is running wide open
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P.U.T.U
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4:49p, 2/16/21
AG
So in short this was caused by subsidies making solar and wind energy so cheap so natural gas and coal plants could not afford the additional cost of winterizing their plants.
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Zobel
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 4:51p, 2/16/21
AG
Lol man y'all are relentless.

What was the excuse ten years ago almost to the day when wind was like 8% of the grid and the same thing happened? Dog ate their winterization money?
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chimpanzee
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 4:56p, 2/16/21
P.U.T.U said:
So in short this was caused by subsidies making solar and wind energy so cheap so natural gas and coal plants could not afford the additional cost of winterizing their plants.

I'm not willing to go quite that far, but it's fair to say that money, time, and attention spent on developing renewables over the last decade didn't create a reliable electric generation situation. I see that as misplaced priorities driven at least partially by the incentives for wind and solar, but that's what you get when politicians and company management makes a strategic mistake.

The winterizing should have happened as a fundamental thing, but it didn't and here we are.
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gonemaroon
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In reply to richardag • 5:07p, 2/16/21
AG
Price scarcity supposed to occur when market is short. The protocol language didn't include them cutting demand and that taking the instantaneous prices from the cap of $9,000 down to $3,000 while they were rehabilitating the grid. Essentially they gave the grid a breather yesterday afternoon and the price didn't reflect the critical situation we were in. So PUCT said to quick fix it they were going back to the beginning of the EEA3 and load loss and until we get out of this load loss the prices will be $9,000 to reflect the scarcity issues we are in. I would have done it forward looking but they did it retro. That order become law last night.

TODAY the kangaroo court that they are flip flopped and came back and said they should have done it forward looking and not retro active so they changed it. So literally they ****ed up the market in the tune of 100's of millions of dollars.

Once the trading exchanges open - they traded off the new law enacted. Then today they reverted that and ****ed EVERYONE that traded off their law. They ****ed me in fact.

They are making a mockery out of the grid and for the first time every y'all get to see it. Welcome to the jungle
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Zobel
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In reply to gonemaroon • 5:12p, 2/16/21
AG
Same as GME / Robinhood. Man.
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gonemaroon
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In reply to Zobel • 5:15p, 2/16/21
AG
The PUCT is an embarrassment to the great state of Texas. They are nothing more than pawns of Vistra and NRG. At look where it got us - now they are going to have the microscope up their ass.

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DallasAg 94
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In reply to gonemaroon • 5:17p, 2/16/21
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aggiehawg
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In reply to gonemaroon • 5:18p, 2/16/21
AG
gonemaroon said:
The PUCT is an embarrassment to the great state of Texas. They are nothing more than pawns of Vistra and NRG. At look where it got us - now they are going to have the microscope up their ass.

Can that microscope be on the end of a cattle prod??

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gonemaroon
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 5:20p, 2/16/21
AG
Not exactly, the pricing of ERCOT is supply and demand based - set by an ERCOT model that computes the price based on all the inputs. It's not at all a stock / it's a limited supplied commodity with a price floor and price cap at any given time.

If the grid is out of generation the proper price signal is the cap - that just makes sense.
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twk
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In reply to polarice • 5:20p, 2/16/21
AG
polarice said:
CDUB98 said:
We don't need the Feds or the other grids.

What we need to do is fix our own problems.

Start with building more generating capacity that uses nat gas. We're going to need it anyway as illegals and Cali jackwagons flood across our border in increase the population.

Isn't gas based generation the bulk of capacity that was lost due to the icing?
I don't know the breakdown on lost gas capacity vs. lost renewable, but, by design, the system assumes that gas will be able to cover the lost renewable generation. The renewable generation couldn't be in the grid at all without gas or other reliable generation to back it up.
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Zobel
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In reply to gonemaroon • 5:22p, 2/16/21
AG

Quote:
If the grid is out of generation the proper price signal is the cap - that just makes sense.

Grid wasn't out of generation, demand was down, tovarisch. Look at the graph.
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tremble
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In reply to gonemaroon • 5:24p, 2/16/21
AG
They should end up in jail. This has a vaguely Enron-esque whiff of **** to it.

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sellthefarm
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5:26p, 2/16/21
AG
North Temple just came back on. Hope it sticks.
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chimpanzee
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In reply to gonemaroon • 5:30p, 2/16/21
gonemaroon said:
The PUCT is an embarrassment to the great state of Texas. They are nothing more than pawns of Vistra and NRG. At look where it got us - now they are going to have the microscope up their ass.

As well they should. ERCOT, PUCT and all of the generators that couldn't deliver need to get defend why they ended up the way they did, including capital investment strategies and risk analyses of cold weather events.
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chimpanzee
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In reply to tremble • 5:36p, 2/16/21
tremble said:
They should end up in jail. This has a vaguely Enron-esque whiff of **** to it.

Prices anywhere near that high would divert supply if it were physically possible to get it away from someone demanding it under a firm contract. It's kind of academic, except to the extent that someone can get it on a truck from Arizona or somewhere, but that's like pissing on a forest fire. As soon as you build a pipe or line or generation station to relieve the constraint, no one wants to pay for it because "we won't need it".

Can't say that now.
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agforlife97
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5:39p, 2/16/21
AG
This is BS. We have people all over San Antonio burning their houses and apartments down trying to keep warm. Many places have had no power for more than 24 hours at this point and businesses have been closed for two plus days. Just third world.
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XXXVII
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In reply to gonemaroon • 6:24p, 2/16/21
gonemaroon said:
Price scarcity supposed to occur when market is short. The protocol language didn't include them cutting demand and that taking the instantaneous prices from the cap of $9,000 down to $3,000 while they were rehabilitating the grid. Essentially they gave the grid a breather yesterday afternoon and the price didn't reflect the critical situation we were in. So PUCT said to quick fix it they were going back to the beginning of the EEA3 and load loss and until we get out of this load loss the prices will be $9,000 to reflect the scarcity issues we are in. I would have done it forward looking but they did it retro. That order become law last night.

TODAY the kangaroo court that they are flip flopped and came back and said they should have done it forward looking and not retro active so they changed it. So literally they ****ed up the market in the tune of 100's of millions of dollars.

Once the trading exchanges open - they traded off the new law enacted. Then today they reverted that and ****ed EVERYONE that traded off their law. They ****ed me in fact.

They are making a mockery out of the grid and for the first time every y'all get to see it. Welcome to the jungle


Can you please explain this like I'm five?
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Premium
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6:29p, 2/16/21
AG
What is everyone doing with their electric? We have a gas heater so I don't feel the blower motor is causing a ton of electric use even with the temp set very high. If we lose power, need the starting temps high. Most lights out and a few TVs. No washer/dryer/oven - not necessarily because of the power issues, but I guess every bit helps.
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fatherof4
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6:30p, 2/16/21
I live in Sherman. A problem we are having, havent seen it reported in other areas, is that the blackouts have knocked out our municipal water supply. Pump houses went down causing supply pipes to freeze. So no power and no water. Anyone have this happening?
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Zobel
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In reply to XXXVII • 6:30p, 2/16/21
AG
Market price showed less than max price for power. Regulators said that's inconsistent with actual demand, price is not correct, let's set it to max.
Market began trading based off these rules.
Regulators did not respect market integrity. Changed the rules.
Some traders hosed.
Someone probably made billions.

~Fin~
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In reply to fatherof4 • 6:31p, 2/16/21
AG
fatherof4 said:
I live in Sherman. A problem we are having, havent seen it reported in other areas, is that the blackouts have knocked out our municipal water supply. Pump houses went down causing supply pipes to freeze. So no power and no water. Anyone have this happening?


Happened in Magnolia, was out of water for about 36 hours and now it's a slow pressure water that has returned.
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XXXVII
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In reply to Zobel • 6:33p, 2/16/21
Zobel said:
Market price showed less than max price for power. Regulators said that's inconsistent with actual demand, price is not correct, let's set it to max.
Market began trading based off these rules.
Regulators did not respect market integrity. Changed the rules.
Some traders hosed.
Someone probably made billions.

~Fin~


Thanks, so the market was expecting to sell power at the max price, but then ERCOT/PUCT said no, even though you sold power at the max price, you're only getting paid at the much lower price?
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Shanked Punt
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6:34p, 2/16/21
We've shed over 3000 MW of supply over the last few hours. Nice job fossil fuel plants.
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Aggie71013
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In reply to Premium • 6:35p, 2/16/21
AG
Similar here. Minimal lights on and pretty much everything else off.
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YouBet
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In reply to fatherof4 • 6:38p, 2/16/21
AG
fatherof4 said:
I live in Sherman. A problem we are having, havent seen it reported in other areas, is that the blackouts have knocked out our municipal water supply. Pump houses went down causing supply pipes to freeze. So no power and no water. Anyone have this happening?
Seeing multiple friends startling to report no water. Keller is depleted and others are getting there it sounds like.

Pretty much living in Soviet Texas right now.
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Zobel
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In reply to XXXVII • 6:39p, 2/16/21
AG
They said it was retroactive priced then forward priced, or vice versa. Either way no market integrity, people made trades based on a decision which was reversed.
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black_ice
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In reply to YouBet • 6:40p, 2/16/21
Got this txt earlier today


" Lee County Water

From the Lee County Judges Office. All Lee County Water Customers please conserve water until further notice."


Water still on though.
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Maverick06
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6:45p, 2/16/21
AG
Southwestern Denton county here. We haven't had water since yesterday morning. Rolling outages since Monday 2 am. 30 mins on and 30 mins off.
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annie88
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6:47p, 2/16/21
AG
I am a bit in the country in Bryan and we are now at a one hour on one hour off on the power. Water has not been a problem. This is much better than having no power for eight or nine hours at a stretch so far. Don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow with more snow though that we absolutely don't need.

Thank God for my fireplace.
Currently a happy listless vessel and deplorable. #FDEMS TRUMP 2024.
Fight Fight Fight.
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YouBet
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6:49p, 2/16/21
AG
Atmos just sent another emergency alert about limiting gas use.
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