Rolling blackouts in Texas

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Kenneth_2003
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4:45p, 2/15/21
AG
For those asking about phase and electrical frequency, there was really good discussion the other day on it, and what it takes to bring everything from plants to a small generator into sync with the grid. I've tried to find the thread. I thought it was on Outdoors, but it could have been here.

Anyone else know where it was?
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 4:47p, 2/15/21
eric76
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4:54p, 2/15/21
AG
I've seen reports that they are looking at going to rolling blackouts in the Texas Panhandle and in Oklahoma.
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mrad85
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In reply to eric76 • 4:58p, 2/15/21
AG
eric76 said:
I've seen reports that they are looking at going to rolling blackouts in the Texas Panhandle and in Oklahoma.


My mom said they will have blackouts 45 minutes every 8-12 hours, no warning when. That's Pampa, but may apply everywhere up there
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Goat Man
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4:58p, 2/15/21
AG
There has been some good discussion on this thread. I have to wonder if Texas had not been deregulated in the 90's would we be in this mess? I think we would still be short on generation but I bet it would not be nearly as bad as it is right now. Prayers for the really young and elderly that are left without heat.
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DallasAg 94
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4:59p, 2/15/21
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SpringAg92
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5:05p, 2/15/21
I've been out since 2:30 am in 77386 (Spring) Late afternoon has been a bit better, but I suspect I will not have power restored before this evening. Going to be a long one. No fireplace. Reliant customer, but I believe we depend on CenterPoint. And of course zero communications from my provider.
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javajaws
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5:15p, 2/15/21
AG
14 hours here in Round Rock...no rolling blackouts. To be rolling we would have had to have some power during those 14 hours...

When elderly start dying tonight some people's heads are gonna roll.
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Paladin05
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In reply to Goat Man • 5:17p, 2/15/21
AG
Goat Man said:
There has been some good discussion on this thread. I have to wonder if Texas had not been deregulated in the 90's would we be in this mess? I think we would still be short on generation but I bet it would not be nearly as bad as it is right now. Prayers for the really young and elderly that are left without heat.

I've been wondering the same thing. Seems like it introduced more instability into the system without any meaningful decrease in cost to the consumer. But that's just my perception from afar.
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itsyourboypookie
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5:19p, 2/15/21
We are remodeling 32 apartments in Coleman. City hasn't had power since 2 am last night.

I'm staying at the Hampton in brownwood, we've never lost power.

My house in groesbeck hasn't lost power at all.

One set of apartments in Comanche hasn't lost power at all.

The other set hasn't had power since 4am

I'm not sure WTF to think about this rolling blackout strategy is, but fair certainly isn't the word for it
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biktarvy
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In reply to Paladin05 • 5:21p, 2/15/21
Paladin05 said:
Goat Man said:
There has been some good discussion on this thread. I have to wonder if Texas had not been deregulated in the 90's would we be in this mess? I think we would still be short on generation but I bet it would not be nearly as bad as it is right now. Prayers for the really young and elderly that are left without heat.

I've been wondering the same thing. Seems like it introduced more instability into the system without any meaningful decrease in cost to the consumer. But that's just my perception from afar.
Wrong all de-regulation did was get the TDU's and PGC out of billing and customer service etc, etc...The problem is capacity and spinning reserve I don't expect most people to understand.

But yes lets blame it on de-regulation
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Three Twenties and A Ten
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In reply to gonemaroon • 5:23p, 2/15/21
AG
gonemaroon said:
when power plants hard trip and in extreme conditions they break sometimes. the weather created extreme conditions and the frequency drop was historic from what I saw. My guess is it broke a lot of them, some of them are probably ok but maybe they froze up after coming down. Plants are fickle / and in the case of South Texas Nuclear - they have to really check that out before turning back on.

Also, if stuff is broke at these plants no one can travel into them right now with the road hazards.

This is why we needed a sub 2 ERA Greg Maddux running the grid and we got Mitch Williams instead.



Was/is there literally a single person responsible for managing the grid @ 2am CST this morning?! Fascinating, if so!!!
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Rapier108
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In reply to itsyourboypookie • 5:23p, 2/15/21
itsyourboypookie said:
I'm not sure WTF to think about this rolling blackout strategy is, but fair certainly isn't the word for it
Especially when there are areas of town that are not near a hospital or any other priority facility, but they've never had their power cut off, even once. What's even more frustrating is that they tend to be the high $$$ areas of town.

That said, Ercot just lost over 1000MW of reserve, so likely going to see a ramping up of blackouts.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Three Twenties and A Ten
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In reply to gonemaroon • 5:26p, 2/15/21
AG
gonemaroon said:
I know exactly what happened the grid operator was supposed to curtail load before it got bad and he didn't do it. I was watching it live.


Was this literally one, single individual?! Crazy, if so!!
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Zobel
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In reply to Rapier108 • 5:28p, 2/15/21
AG
Suns going down and wind is supposed to keep dropping down below 1G. So at least 3 GW is about to go.
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Paladin05
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In reply to biktarvy • 5:32p, 2/15/21
AG
biktarvy said:
Paladin05 said:
Goat Man said:
There has been some good discussion on this thread. I have to wonder if Texas had not been deregulated in the 90's would we be in this mess? I think we would still be short on generation but I bet it would not be nearly as bad as it is right now. Prayers for the really young and elderly that are left without heat.

I've been wondering the same thing. Seems like it introduced more instability into the system without any meaningful decrease in cost to the consumer. But that's just my perception from afar.
Wrong all de-regulation did was get the TDU's and PGC out of billing and customer service etc, etc...The problem is capacity and spinning reserve I don't expect most people to understand.

But yes lets blame it on de-regulation

I'm certainly interested in knowing more about it, if you're knowledgeable and would care to explain. My perception was that the deregulation did more than just spin off billing and customer service, but I'm no expert on the subject.
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to Zobel • 5:34p, 2/15/21
AG
Zobel said:
Suns going down and wind is supposed to keep dropping down below 1G. So at least 3 GW is about to go.
Just looked and demand and capacity plot... The lines look to be converging again. only 1127Mw available at 17:29
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sands
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 5:35p, 2/15/21
AG
Kenneth_2003 said:
Zobel said:
Suns going down and wind is supposed to keep dropping down below 1G. So at least 3 GW is about to go.
Just looked and demand and capacity plot... The lines look to be converging again. only 1127Mw available at 17:29
Saw that. Anyone know why supply has been going down all day?
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 5:35p, 2/15/21
AG
Kenneth_2003 said:
Zobel said:
Suns going down and wind is supposed to keep dropping down below 1G. So at least 3 GW is about to go.
Just looked and demand and capacity plot... The lines look to be converging again. only 1127Mw available at 17:29


Considering I haven't had power for 16 hours, what does this mean for me?
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black_ice
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 5:35p, 2/15/21
Kenneth_2003 said:
Zobel said:
Suns going down and wind is supposed to keep dropping down below 1G. So at least 3 GW is about to go.
Just looked and demand and capacity plot... The lines look to be converging again. only 1127Mw available at 17:29




God help us
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YouBet
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5:36p, 2/15/21
AG
Power gone again just in time for night!
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Ted Lasso
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5:37p, 2/15/21
AG
Evening demand should outpace the generation momentarily. Gonna need to shut more down
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Big Bucks
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In reply to halfastros81 • 5:37p, 2/15/21
AG
halfastros81 said:
I suspect Some people will get fired over this. Dangerous situation for elderly and sick folks. If past experience is any indicator the wrong people often take the fall tho.


No doubt and same will happen this time. Will probably fire a couple ERCOT desk folks and say they solved the problem and not change any of the fundamental underlying issues.
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5:38p, 2/15/21
SquanchyAg
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5:39p, 2/15/21
Good news is, it is cold enough to put the beers outside since no power means no fridge.
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Rapier108
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5:40p, 2/15/21
What's sad is there are over a million without power due to weather related causes (limbs falling on power lines, cold nuking transformers, etc.) but even all those people being off the grid are still not enough to prevent rolling blackouts.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Agmechanic
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5:42p, 2/15/21
AG
**** ercot. We haven't had power for 15 hours. Rolling blackouts my ass. This is a targeted shutdown.
a gmechanic 01@gma i l (no spaces)
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richardag
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In reply to biktarvy • 5:43p, 2/15/21
biktarvy said:
Paladin05 said:
Goat Man said:
There has been some good discussion on this thread. I have to wonder if Texas had not been deregulated in the 90's would we be in this mess? I think we would still be short on generation but I bet it would not be nearly as bad as it is right now. Prayers for the really young and elderly that are left without heat.

I've been wondering the same thing. Seems like it introduced more instability into the system without any meaningful decrease in cost to the consumer. But that's just my perception from afar.
Wrong all de-regulation did was get the TDU's and PGC out of billing and customer service etc, etc...The problem is capacity and spinning reserve I don't expect most people to understand.

But yes lets blame it on de-regulation
Thank you for the response. Nice explanation.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
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FattyDelights
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5:43p, 2/15/21
What's the url to see the supposed power availability?
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Ted Lasso
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In reply to FattyDelights • 5:44p, 2/15/21
AG
Ercot app
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to FattyDelights • 5:46p, 2/15/21
AG
FattyDelights said:
What's the url to see the supposed power availability?
ercot.com

They've shed 1000MW of load in the last 15 minutes
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black_ice
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In reply to Agmechanic • 5:46p, 2/15/21
Agmechanic said:
**** ercot. We haven't had power for 15 hours. Rolling blackouts my ass. This is a targeted shutdown.


Are you a trump supporter?
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Serotonin
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In reply to FattyDelights • 5:46p, 2/15/21
AG
http://www.ercot.com/

Line graph on left with red for generation and green for demand.

This is not looking good for tonight.
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Justice Beaver
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In reply to Agmechanic • 5:47p, 2/15/21
AG
Agmechanic said:
**** ercot. We haven't had power for 15 hours. Rolling blackouts my ass. This is a targeted shutdown.


Right there with you. Heads better roll after this
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Rapier108
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 5:52p, 2/15/21
Kenneth_2003 said:
FattyDelights said:
What's the url to see the supposed power availability?
ercot.com

They've shed 1000MW of load in the last 15 minutes
Added back about 1200MW in the last couple of updates. Of course, the next update could do the opposite.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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