There's 30 GW of thermal (not renewable) power off the grid right now with problems.
Rolling blackouts in Texas
169,303 Views |
1588 Replies |
Last: 3 yr ago by Whitetail
TommyBrady:
Need to put journalists and politicians on only renewables so they get an accurate feel for their reliability. Even if they are rich, mandate it somehow. Policy makers should not have different means--- needs to be the same so understand the impact of their policies.Quote:
I work at luminant. If the government would have subsidized us like wind and solar everybody would have power rn and we would be burning clean lignite coal to make sure nobody had to freeze. **** anybody who doesn't get that the renewables can never be trusted in times of crisis to provide a base load power.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
So we need 25 flux capacitors to make up the difference?!? Great Scott!!!Zobel said:
There's 30 GW of thermal (not renewable) power off the grid right now with problems.
Its a shame Austin cant plan its way out of a wet paper bag. Your area is naturally beautiful. The problems are lib urban planning or the lack thereof. The good news is you likely made a $$ pile on your home assuming you sell at the right time.agmom95 said:
Yes, 620 has been great since COVID. If we had somewhere else to go, we'd sell right now. Have property northwest of Temple, but are only about 8 years from retirement and only plan on being there part time. Would love to go to CStat.
To answer the commie's question:Shanked Punt said:
Wonder if the big manufacturing plants, like GM are still operating today. Those businesses need to be shut down until the power situation gets better.
A stop in production at manufacturing plants can cost millions per minute. Manufacturing plants pay a hefty premium so that their power always stays on. If power goes out, lawsuits are filed.
All of that is to preface this:
A large industrial company is being compelled to shut down multiple factories to save electricity. I strongly suspect that this is going on across the state.
Nearly 20 years in manufacturing and I've never seen anything like this
Most of those plants should have emergency generators of they're losing millions per minute.
They dont have generators on site. They have entire power plants on site.PearlJammin said:
Most of those plants should have emergency generators of they're losing millions per minute.
From what I understand, the power plants are being taken by ERCOT
Does ERCOT keep manipulating their forecast?
I realize they have been forcing blackouts, but this is completely different.
What a difference a few hours make.
I realize they have been forcing blackouts, but this is completely different.
What a difference a few hours make.
Shanked Punt said:
Here is a good thread of what is going on. Wind may be an issue, but the delivery of natural gas is causing major problems.
Next time find an unbiased source and not a career academic who's entire life has been spent studying slanted science in an effort to force feed our country an agenda.
Quote:
Jesse leads the Princeton ZERO Lab - the Zero carbon Energy systems Research and Optimization Laboratory -- which conducts research to improve decision-making to accelerate rapid, affordable, and effective transitions to net-zero carbon energy systems. The ZERO Lab has three main areas of research
His 26k number is pretty close to the 10k offline for maintenance before the storm and 10-15k lost at 2am last night.
This is exactly right. And gonemaroon's posts have also been spot on during all of this.Sasappis said:I was told exactly the opposite by someone in the know. With deregulation in Texas, the producers are not required to build to a certain capacity and since there not much profit motivation to build new generators, they are not building the power plants. Certainly environmental regulations making coal plants hard to/if not prohibitively expensive to operate is a fed regulation having a negative impact. But apparently Texas deregulation is an issue as well.billydean05 said:
Over regulated to much government control no competition. Goals achieved US now third world country can't even keep the lights on if temperature dips below 20.
I am a die-hard conservative and know I will get ripped for this, but I call them like I see them. Yes, we do not have the existing technology to survive on green energy alone right now. This will happen in other parts of the country if politicians force the transition too fast. So "greenies" and ignorant politicians on that side of the aisle get some blame.
Now for the unpopular part. Just what party has been 100% in charge of policy making in Texas for the last 25 years?? ERCOT is controlled by the PUCT who is appointed by the governor and answer to the state legislature. FERC has no jurisdiction over ERCOT.
The initial deregulation happened under Governor Bush. And Governor Perry and his PUCT is who authorized all the socialized CREZ lines to bring in the cheap wind power that has undercut the existing fossil generation.
The winter of 2011 was a huge warning sign yet the legislature held hearings, made a bunch of statements about how much they care, and promptly did nothing. Why? Because the large manufacturers that make the large campaign contributions want the cheapest power possible. They also can afford to have the backup generators and also cut deals with the power companies to be paid to shed load at certain times. Residential customers are who gets the short-end of the stick.
Fast forward a few years. PUCT Chairwoman Nelson saw this coming and started a discussion about a capacity market. A capacity market acts as insurance for cases like this. And insurance costs money every year to the end user. Therefore the large manufacturers spoke again and Governor Abbott didn't reappoint her and all three commissioners are now his appointees.
Then we are staring at potential rolling outages in the summer of 2018 through the summer of 2020. The PUCT worked with ERCOT to put out notices to all owners of generation and transmission lines that no planned outages would be allowed from mid-May to mid-October to make sure the system wouldn't crash due to heat. That honestly doesn't leave a large window for all the plants and lines to schedule outages and impossible for them all to do it in the spring and fall windows. Either that or they simply don't take them and you can only defer maintenance for so long before disaster occurs.
Long-winded way of saying that the PUCT, or politicians that the PUCT answers to, could have demanded that ERCOT change their compensation structure to make sure dependable capacity was on the system but were either ignorant or too afraid of adding a few dollars to power bills to insure this didn't happen. And now all the chickens have come home to roost.
Very interesting post. Let's say if you were given special powers to enact a remedy, what is the thing most missing at moment that could be put to a vote? If it is just a few tens dollars more on the bill, and not hundreds, that is probably feasible. But is it more a regulatory change you would make or need?
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
In this case he may not be wrong. Natural gas IS prioritized to residential consumers for heating over power generation. I read on another thread here when this storm was still a few days away that something similar happened in 2011, and NG suppliers were faced with a choice of obeying the rules and supplying residential customers or facing potential grid collapse.mazag08 said:Shanked Punt said:
Here is a good thread of what is going on. Wind may be an issue, but the delivery of natural gas is causing major problems.
Next time find an unbiased source and not a career academic who's entire life has been spent studying slanted science in an effort to force feed our country an agenda.Quote:
Jesse leads the Princeton ZERO Lab - the Zero carbon Energy systems Research and Optimization Laboratory -- which conducts research to improve decision-making to accelerate rapid, affordable, and effective transitions to net-zero carbon energy systems. The ZERO Lab has three main areas of research
Moving compressed and pressurized gasses in extreme cold events is problematic as infrastructure freezes and those gasses physical properties change. Ever been camping and your propane bottle froze and your camp stove wouldn't work?
Big Bucks
Thanks for the post and comments.
Thanks for the post and comments.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Can somebody explain to me why the power comes on every hour for only three minutes then goes off. Yet other households in San Antonio have power 24/7
you may all go to hell and i will go to Texas
Natural gas prices have been so low for so long there has been little incentive to actually get the gas that is available.
I'm not just talking about flaring. I used to work for a midstream natural gas company and we shutdown a 30" natural gas pipeline in DFW because all our suppliers along the pipeline weren't getting enough money for their gas. Gas that would be very useful right now.
I'm not just talking about flaring. I used to work for a midstream natural gas company and we shutdown a 30" natural gas pipeline in DFW because all our suppliers along the pipeline weren't getting enough money for their gas. Gas that would be very useful right now.
Spot on.
There are other areas with tons of renewables like MISO, PJM, NYISO. They all have Capacity markets which help ensure adequate reserve margins.
Essentially it acts as a payment to non-renewable generators as insurance if you need them.
ERCOT thought that high LMPs would be enough of an incentive, which is clearly not the case. And you have the gas supply issues mentioned above which were bad in 2011 but ridiculous right now.
It's a complete joke.
There are other areas with tons of renewables like MISO, PJM, NYISO. They all have Capacity markets which help ensure adequate reserve margins.
Essentially it acts as a payment to non-renewable generators as insurance if you need them.
ERCOT thought that high LMPs would be enough of an incentive, which is clearly not the case. And you have the gas supply issues mentioned above which were bad in 2011 but ridiculous right now.
It's a complete joke.
Big Bucks said:
Long-winded way of saying that the PUCT, or politicians that the PUCT answers to, could have demanded that ERCOT change their compensation structure to make sure dependable capacity was on the system but were either ignorant or too afraid of adding a few dollars to power bills to insure this didn't happen. And now all the chickens have come home to roost.
Compensating for capacity availability is basically paying for insurance to ensure that you have enough generation available. Well, we have enough generation infrastructure in TX to keep all of the lights on right now. IMO, this is an operational issue and not an infrastructure issue.
I think the worthwhile analysis when this is over: have markets like CA who pay for capacity have more uptime than TX over the long run? My expectation is no. It takes freak situations like a century storm to incur this level of outtage and those insurance payments wouldn't have been enough. So we would have paid more money in every bill and probably had the same reliability.
That makes sense. Distorting everything for very rare situations doesn't make too much sense no matter how troubling. The very face that we have to reach back a full decade does kind of confirm the rare-ness of it.
What is really lacking is communication and information. A rolling blackout schedule that didn't suddenly plunge peope into cold for long hours, but could be tracked, predicted, and prepared around, would go far to alleviate much. If you knew that at such hour its all going off, you shut down everything to prevent damage from sudden outage, make sure you have all thins visible if lighting was an issue, and you make that last minute or two oven or microwave use. Then coast for the two or three hours (whatever it specified) knowing it would end then.
Find a way to make that more immediately transparent, known time, and not abritrary.
Naturally this has nothing to do with trucks running into poles or snow downing power lines, that kind of trouble. But anything discretionary should be possible to plan.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
I'd like to know why we haven't had power since 2 a.m.hedge said:
Can somebody explain to me why the power comes on every hour for only three minutes then goes off. Yet other households in San Antonio have power 24/7
ERCOT is government bureaucrats right? ERCOT seems to be the problem poorly run from appointed bureaucrats that shouldn't be where they are and they seem to have a monopoly. Doesn't seem like free competition to me
Maybe the governor should start pushing for generation 4 reactors in Texas.
I'm getting about 15min out of every hour, just enough that I don't need to build a fire. Meanwhile, my MIL in Plano hasn't seen any power outage. Makes no sense to me.hedge said:
Can somebody explain to me why the power comes on every hour for only three minutes then goes off. Yet other households in San Antonio have power 24/7
JesseJenkins, shanked, and others are missing the forest for the trees. We didn't just wake up in this situation today. Several thousand MWs of coal generation has been retired over the last several years for various reasons that include renewable subsidies, environmental regulations, and the price of NG.
If it keeps up, kill your breaker
F4GIB71
My understanding is that plants from all fuel sources are struggling, supposedly even one nuke plant. Our stuff isn't built for this cold.
Except for a recip or simple cycle GT every other thermal source ultimately heats water to turn a steam turbine. Frozen lines can screw any steam plant.
Except for a recip or simple cycle GT every other thermal source ultimately heats water to turn a steam turbine. Frozen lines can screw any steam plant.
Ag In Ok said:
How long is the recovery window?
Looks to me like a couple of days / as of now they have not gotten any generation back online. The generation is now at the lows of the day. Demand is also at the lows of the day telling me that they haven't even begun to fix any of the issues.
I had a conversation with Bloomberg / I am going to make sure the questions about generation outages and the control room at ERCOT's handling of load shedding are asked - I promise you ERCOT and the PUCT are going to CYA for big generation outages and their own stupidity. Everyone I know in Texas is sitting in the cold thinking outages are rotating and they'll have power soon.
The price of LMP right now is about $1400 no where near the price cap telling me they could be turning load back online because they have the room and they are not doing it. It's pissing me off to no end.
The price of LMP right now is about $1400 no where near the price cap telling me they could be turning load back online because they have the room and they are not doing it. It's pissing me off to no end.
If anyone knows of any person in the press personally that is covering this - point them my way please. PM me
The entire system of checks and balances failed on this one, and everyone is suffering due to it.
The entire system of checks and balances failed on this one, and everyone is suffering due to it.
A few of the rumors I have heard is that Kinder is having pipeline issues and since ERCOT has tripped all the solid fuel (coal and 50% of STP) ERCOT is freaking the **** out. They don't want to put load back on the system because they fear total black out. So we are relying on a fragile gas pipeline right now to get us through this.
ERCOT ran credit under this situation of price caps for 3 days straight and the risk to the market was in the 10's of billions and the powers that play in this space made calls all the way up to POTUS. Massive load shedding seems to be the bail out (opinion of everyone I know in the space) to the shorts in the market that were all going to go under - shorts include all the REP's. Most of the traders think the grid is trying to bail out Vistra and NRG through black outs. Even the likes of Morgan Stanley have billions in credit risk on these companies and wind farms, solar farms, etc. They provide LOC's for many as do all the other banks. Lots of players in the mix.
That's all I have for now.
ERCOT ran credit under this situation of price caps for 3 days straight and the risk to the market was in the 10's of billions and the powers that play in this space made calls all the way up to POTUS. Massive load shedding seems to be the bail out (opinion of everyone I know in the space) to the shorts in the market that were all going to go under - shorts include all the REP's. Most of the traders think the grid is trying to bail out Vistra and NRG through black outs. Even the likes of Morgan Stanley have billions in credit risk on these companies and wind farms, solar farms, etc. They provide LOC's for many as do all the other banks. Lots of players in the mix.
That's all I have for now.
TCag2007
Another Interesting Thing From Elko That Went Under The Radar Monday
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
97