Quoted for truthk2aggie07 said:If we ignore false positives, you can't measure cases that aren't there. That's important.Quote:
You state,"The only way testing changes the view is if our screening significantly changes." which completely ignores increased testing. If we test 100 people 10% is 10 people confirmed...if we test 1000 people 100 people are confirmed, assuming 10% tests are typically positive. This is true whether they presented for medical care or not.
Where is the data on the number of increased tests. What % of the 348 were captured through increased testing? By "only" reporting new confirmed tests it may be giving the impression that the virus is spreading faster that reality.
We also aren't testing people who aren't presenting. So if screening criteria stays the same - if you have to be symptomatic - increasing the number of tests can only find more people that you were missing before of the same bracket.
If your test capacity is increasing, and screening stays the same, increased number of tests tells you only one of two things
1. You were unable to test people before who you would have liked to have tested
2. The number of people is increasing
If your screening is changing there's a third
3. You are now testing people you previously would / could not test before
The only way to split those is to understand how the screening is being applied. But that's different county to county or even hospital to hospital in some cases.
At any rate, it was pretty well clear we were undertesting, and seeing only the more severe end of things. At some point our test capacity + changes in screening will pass the rate of infectious growth.
".... So if screening criteria stays the same - if you have to be symptomatic - increasing the number of tests can only find more people that you were missing before of the same bracket."
This means that increased testing is not showing that there is necessarily that dramatic an increase in people with the virus. Those infected people were already infected but not counted until we increased the testing.
Until the number of tests performed on a given day is reported along side of confirmed cases the data is suspect. Even at that, we agree that if the targeted population for testing changes then extracting actionable information becomes even more obtuse.