k2aggie07 said:

---

Right now what's playing out in Italy and the US is identical observed CFR to that in China. The disease is progressing at a rate comparable to what we saw in China. At some point you have to get an 80% solution with the information you have at hand.

All available information is telling us this disease is at least as infectious as influenza. It is at least as severe as influenza.

So baseline - H1N1 as a novel influenza A strain? 60M Americans infected because there was no intervention. This should be your "at least" number if you don't know anything else. Yes?

---

Honestly, I don't know. I'm just trying to understand the realities of what we're facing with a small, limited set of reliable data. I believe the information from some European countries and the USA can be considered reliable, but also carry the bias I've mentioned before.

You are right on at least one concept here. We have to make decisions with the limited information we have.

Now, regarding the flu. What if, just what if, it is no worse than the flu? Should we shut down the economy the next time we "predict" our flu season is going to be much worse this season?

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Quote:

---

We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

---

Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

---

Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

---

What would you expect "experts" to say? They have no skin in the game.

Are they responsible for the results of their views? No. Hell, even the politicians aren't when you boil it down.

---

You have zero credibility. Your argument is "WAHHHHHHHHHH, life has changed! NOT FAIR!"

---

Thanks for bringing your tactful insight to the discussion.

---

I have tried tact... Look at my any number of responses. It's not good enough for you. You just stick your head further into the sand.

---

You sure are convinced it's not your head in the sand.

Where have you and I traded discussion?

---

This whole thread. The difference is, you are going based off of your gut and against the math and professionals.

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Ok, sure. If this was one professional in an isolated part of the internet. There are literally hundreds if not thousands of professionals telling you otherwise.

You are choosing ignorance.

Troutslime said:

---

JB99 said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Quote:

---

We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

---

Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

---

Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

---

What would you expect "experts" to say? They have no skin in the game.

Are they responsible for the results of their views? No. Hell, even the politicians aren't when you boil it down.

---

This is BS. Many of the experts are practicing physicians on the front line exposing themselves and family to infection every day. They have much more skin in the game then you or I or most everyone on this board. The people screaming the loudest are on the frontlines.

---

.

That makes them experts at analyzing data and extrapolating data to create future models? Including economic models?

---

Experts on how a disease ioerates. How does it spread? How infectious is it? How deadly is it? Then comparing that to the flu of which they have firsthand experience over decades. I think they can understand the difference and inform the public which qualifies them as experts. Look, we have experts who focus on this field for decades like Fauci all saying the same thing across the globe. And yet, you and others are basically saying you think they don't know what they are talking about. It's ridiculous and arrogant. Where's the disention from the people that work in this field?

Your comment of "Huh" seemed to contradict the prior posters point that we can't save lives at all costs. That's how I took it. Apologies if I misunderstood.

Sure, if it's the same as seasonal flu, you ride on. Like we did with 2009 H1N1 influenza A. If it's the same as 1918 H1N1 influenza A, you react.

Now, when was the last time we saw the seasonal flu run through a G8 country's healthcare system like a hot knife through butter?

k2aggie07 said:

---

I'm a - I don't watch the MSM or generally follow the news, and have been reading published papers in big-time journals like Science and Nature guy. What are you?

---

A guy with a smattering of book learning but a whole helluva lot life experience and common sense. I'm a guy that's 70 years old and knows that there are a lot folks out there that will try to pee down your neck and tell you it's raining. What's your point?

Quote:

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Right, becoming an MD / PhD is *totally comparable* to an auto mechanic.

This forum gets better every day.

I don't know, you asked me if I was a numbers guy. What was your point?

Gotcha. I never said that. It's impossible to make the economic choice in the current environment. This time next year? Sure. That is what we do with the flu every year. It's not worth the cost to shut things down.

His quote said "we don't care about saving lives in America" which is what made me say "huh".

k2aggie07 said:

---

Right now what's playing out in Italy and the US is identical observed CFR to that in China. The disease is progressing at a rate comparable to what we saw in China. At some point you have to get an 80% solution with the information you have at hand.

All available information is telling us this disease is at least as infectious as influenza. It is at least as severe as influenza.

So baseline - H1N1 as a novel influenza A strain? 60M Americans infected because there was no intervention. This should be your "at least" number if you don't know anything else. Yes?

---

This is more infectious than the flu and the overall mortality, using the lowest possible estimate, is 25x higher than H1N1 was.

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Quote:

---

We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

---

Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

---

Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

---

What would you expect "experts" to say? They have no skin in the game.

Are they responsible for the results of their views? No. Hell, even the politicians aren't when you boil it down.

---

You have zero credibility. Your argument is "WAHHHHHHHHHH, life has changed! NOT FAIR!"

---

Thanks for bringing your tactful insight to the discussion.

---

I have tried tact... Look at my any number of responses. It's not good enough for you. You just stick your head further into the sand.

---

You sure are convinced it's not your head in the sand.

Where have you and I traded discussion?

---

This whole thread. The difference is, you are going based off of your gut and against the math and professionals.

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Ok, sure. If this was one professional in an isolated part of the internet. There are literally hundreds if not thousands of professionals telling you otherwise.

You are choosing ignorance.

---

You're choosing to ride the high horse and not even conceive you just might be wrong. I bet you're that way with most things in life. Am I right?

Right there with you doc. Trying to help everyone else arrive into last month's level of awareness of what was going on around us.

k2aggie07 said:

---

I don't know, you asked me if I was a numbers guy. What was your point?

---

Trying to find out if you were a numbers guy? Thought I was pretty clear but I guess not

Rattler12 said:

---

k2aggie07 said:

---

I'm a - I don't watch the MSM or generally follow the news, and have been reading published papers in big-time journals like Science and Nature guy. What are you?

---

A guy with a smattering of book learning but a whole helluva lot life experience and common sense. I'm a guy that's 70 years old and knows that there are a lot folks out there that will try to pee down your neck and tell you it's raining. What's your point?

---

Mine would be that you aren't actually offering anything useful to the board besides "You a numbers guy?" type insults.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

k2aggie07 said:

---

Right now what's playing out in Italy and the US is identical observed CFR to that in China. The disease is progressing at a rate comparable to what we saw in China. At some point you have to get an 80% solution with the information you have at hand.

All available information is telling us this disease is at least as infectious as influenza. It is at least as severe as influenza.

So baseline - H1N1 as a novel influenza A strain? 60M Americans infected because there was no intervention. This should be your "at least" number if you don't know anything else. Yes?

---

This is more infectious than the flu and the overall mortality, using the lowest possible estimate, is 25x higher than H1N1 was.

---

It's only by allowing limited and at least slightly tainted data into the equations that your statement can be made with certainty. If you look at trending, it's very possible that they will be statistically similar when it's over.

Quote:

---

It's only by allowing limited and at least slightly tainted data into the equations that your statement can be made with certainty. If you look at trending, it's very possible that they will be statistically similar when it's over.

---

Show your work.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

policywonk98 said:

---

New cases or cases that have been identified by testing?

There is a big difference.

---

The number of actual US cases is almost certainly over 100k already.

---

And as they test more people and announce more of that 100k number, those who already have it, you will post every time an announcement is made.

Not going to speak for Infection_Ag11, but I think it's hilarious that you're telling a doctor on the front lines that he can't tell the difference between COVID-19 and the flu.

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

FriendlyAg said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

Troutslime said:

---

Quote:

---

We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

---

Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

---

Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

---

What would you expect "experts" to say? They have no skin in the game.

Are they responsible for the results of their views? No. Hell, even the politicians aren't when you boil it down.

---

You have zero credibility. Your argument is "WAHHHHHHHHHH, life has changed! NOT FAIR!"

---

Thanks for bringing your tactful insight to the discussion.

---

I have tried tact... Look at my any number of responses. It's not good enough for you. You just stick your head further into the sand.

---

You sure are convinced it's not your head in the sand.

Where have you and I traded discussion?

---

This whole thread. The difference is, you are going based off of your gut and against the math and professionals.

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Ok, sure. If this was one professional in an isolated part of the internet. There are literally hundreds if not thousands of professionals telling you otherwise.

You are choosing ignorance.

---

You're choosing to ride the high horse and not even conceive you just might be wrong. I bet you're that way with most things in life. Am I right?

---

Don't play the victim card when you have a choice to inform yourself. I thought this was stupid too until I read about the risks not only for people who are infected but the strain on our systems - healthcare and financial. I chose to take a different opinion than when this started because I decided that education and facts were more important than what I was feeling.

I am not choosing to ride the high horse, as you say, but I am choosing to follow the numbers and what thousands of Doctors have said. People who do this for a living. They prepare for terrible scenarios.

I will give you an example because I think you like to learn and teach in stories.

If you were a new recruit into the military and you were getting shot at for the first time and several more veteran guys and officers told you to do something that might save your life, would you yield to them because you realize that your gut and experience has zero clue how to actually react or would stay stubborn because one time someone of authority did you wrong?

k2aggie07 said:

---

Quote:

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Right, becoming an MD / PhD is *totally comparable* to an auto mechanic.

This forum gets better every day.

---

So you're saying an MD/PHD can never be wrong ? Then why is there even such a thing as malpractice insurance? If they can never be wrong why would they need it? Why does a MD/PHD take their vehicle to a lowly auto mechanic when it needs fixing?

k2aggie07 said:

---

But no one is going to be convinced by someone else saying there are no firebreaks. People have to come to terms with that fact. What stops it?

---

It does not stop. That's why we have the annual flu. H1N1 comes to mind.

Philip J Fry said:

---

Rattler12 said:

---

k2aggie07 said:

---

I'm a - I don't watch the MSM or generally follow the news, and have been reading published papers in big-time journals like Science and Nature guy. What are you?

---

A guy with a smattering of book learning but a whole helluva lot life experience and common sense. I'm a guy that's 70 years old and knows that there are a lot folks out there that will try to pee down your neck and tell you it's raining. What's your point?

---

Mine would be that you aren't actually offering anything useful to the board besides "You a numbers guy?" type insults.

---

And you are? Adding anything useful that is.

Did you change position? I thought you were one of the doom and gloomers...

30wedge said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

policywonk98 said:

---

New cases or cases that have been identified by testing?

There is a big difference.

---

The number of actual US cases is almost certainly over 100k already.

---

And as they test more people and announce more of that 100k number, those who already have it, you will post every time an announcement is made.

---

Why do you guys think he is happy about this? Why do you think some of us are sitting on here arguing with you guys? Sure, it is because I am bored, but it's also because we have some how some commonality that we use an Aggie message board for entertainment, but it's also because we feel the need to make you think differently. To have the numbers and data to make decisions. You might shut your phone or computer off tonight and not believe anyone that thinks differently than you, but that doesn't mean you are correct.

He's posting the numbers because you guys are not taking it seriously.

I meant forum.

No, that's actually not what I was saying. I wasn't even implying it.

I'm saying that the road to becoming an MD and a PhD is very different than an automechanic. Anyone with some time to spare, a fair degree of cleverness and diligence can learn how a car works and learn to repair on themselves with a pair of tools.

The average Joe can't become an MD or a PhD in a field like epidemiology.

That doesn't make them immune to making mistakes. It does mean comparing modeling an epidemic outbreak to fixing a water pump is not a great comparison.

Just because you have a degree doesn't mean you are good at your job.

I'm living in reality. You're the one relating a 50 cent pump O-Ring to a pandemic that's effecting 144 countries.

Worst case, yep. It becomes endemic. Best case we get it shut down and it goes away.

But even if it becomes endemic over time it'll most likely become less severe / we'll become more immune.

Quote:

---

Just because you have a degree doesn't mean you are good at your job.

---

Great, we're back to posting irrelevant facts again?

A litter of kittens is also known as a "kindle."

That's not what the models show sir.

k2aggie07 said:

---

No, that's actually not what I was saying. I wasn't even implying it.

I'm saying that the road to becoming an MD and a PhD is very different than an automechanic. Anyone with some time to spare, a fair degree of cleverness and diligence can learn how a car works and learn to repair on themselves with a pair of tools.

The average Joe can't become an MD or a PhD in a field like epidemiology.

That doesn't make them immune to making mistakes. It does mean comparing modeling an epidemic outbreak to fixing a water pump is not a great comparison.

---

It also doesn't adjust for the fact that we are not talking about 1 mechanic or 1 epidemiologist. We are talking about THOUSANDS of them. They have all looked at the data and have agreed there is a problem.

So tell us, Social Distance, Troutslime, Rattler, are they all wrong? ALL of them?

They are just in this together out to trick the whole world into economic collapse, but thankfully Texags has these defenders of liberties and the truth posting here! Heros!

Doom and gloomers make me laugh

Rattler12 said:

---

k2aggie07 said:

---

Quote:

---

I had a "professional" tell me my son's Ford PU truck needed a $400 water pump repair. It needed a 50 cent O ring. Forgive my reluctance to take professionals 100 % seriously.

---

Right, becoming an MD / PhD is *totally comparable* to an auto mechanic.

This forum gets better every day.

---

So you're saying an MD/PHD can never be wrong ? Then why is there even such a thing as malpractice insurance? If they can never be wrong why would they need it? Why does a MD/PHD take their vehicle to a lowly auto mechanic when it needs fixing?

---

In this case you've taken your truck to every mechanic on the entire globe and they are all saying the same thing. This is a consensus across the globe with doctors and infectious disease experts. The debate is not, is this bad, but on how bad it could be. Even the lowest estimates make the flu comparison irrelevant. Now tell us why we should all believe you vs. the experts with skin in the game?

Troutslime said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

k2aggie07 said:

---

Right now what's playing out in Italy and the US is identical observed CFR to that in China. The disease is progressing at a rate comparable to what we saw in China. At some point you have to get an 80% solution with the information you have at hand.

All available information is telling us this disease is at least as infectious as influenza. It is at least as severe as influenza.

So baseline - H1N1 as a novel influenza A strain? 60M Americans infected because there was no intervention. This should be your "at least" number if you don't know anything else. Yes?

---

This is more infectious than the flu and the overall mortality, using the lowest possible estimate, is 25x higher than H1N1 was.

---

It's only by allowing limited and at least slightly tainted data into the equations that your statement can be made with certainty. If you look at trending, it's very possible that they will be statistically similar when it's over.

---

There is no chance the mortality of this comes close to being as low as the 0.02% mortality for H1N1. It won't even come within an order of magnitude of that.

Even if we make a ton of optimistic assumptions, the mortality across the whole population is very unlike to drop below 0.5%. It may be closer to 1% in reality.