TwoTimeAg said:
AgsMyDude said:
TwoTimeAg said:
80% is the number being pushed in Austin as what is required for herd immunity. If that is the case, I don't think we will ever get there.
Ever? Infections + those with a single dose is already at 22% (assuming no crossover) with a massive increase in vaccinated coming.
The 2.67M infections is also a massive under count and everyone agrees.
Austin is saying 80% vaccination rate is necessary for herd immunity. They have referred to that several times In this morning's press conference
Which is utter insanity, bulls***, and completely ridiculous and likely never achievable. Pure vaccination, that is. I can see getting to 60% vaccinated eventually, but even that taking half the year. But 80%. Nope. Nada, this won't happen, and they know it.
80% is simply overestimate for both vaccinations and natural immunity, let alone 80% vaccinations alone. I sincerely hope that maybe he's just trying to push more to do it, and that's fine. But we better not have any policies set with the number 80% vaccination in mind. We may never get there.
It's much more likely to be 55%, 60, 65, or at most 70% TOTAL immunity including natural immunities. Which would likely require anywhere from 20-40% vaccinations at this point, assuming some overlap in populations. 25-32% have had this thing in Texas, and then out of the 70% that haven't, I'd say anywhere from 20-40% are low risk to get and spread it(yes, presymptomatic and asymptomatic spread is possible, but not the highest driver), which is 14-36% of the total population. That's 39-68% on the aggregate, and if we get 20% vaccinated, 59-88% on the aggregate. Then, when you factor in the overlap, you could probably say anywhere from 45-65% total with 20% vaccinations. Then 52-68% with 30%. And then about 60-75% with 40% vaccinated. Again, depending on a few factors such as the overlap percentage, the amount who has had it which ranges depending on the graph you look at, and the amount that are unlikely to get a severe case and/or unlikely to spread it.
There really is no reason why 40% vaccinations shouldn't turn this thing into basically nothing.
When you factor in that many will continue to live with modified behavior the next couple of years, that number is likely even lower than your normal, traditional herd immunity value which is why I throw 55% as necessary. For those that want to live 100% as normal, there's no reason that shouldn't be allowed even around 20-30% vaccinations in any state. As we can see in Texas, we are already moving towards it with what, 13% single vaccinated and 8% double vaccinated?
