Medaggie said:
I finally jumped into Tsla Stock after thinking about 2 yrs ago when they were around $100 presplit or $20 currently. What pushed me into buying their stock was when I bought my first Tesla.
Everything everyone says about the QC/fit/finish is correct. My car definitely has gap issues and other QC issues. Didn't notice any big paint issues but I am sure if I took it under bright lights I would. But to 99% of the people who looks at my car, they would not see any paint/gap issues.
I will tell you that when I drove my tesla(I would speculate the majority of people), it was by far the best/handling car compared to my two previous BMWs. It is not even comparable for essentially the same price. I will never go back to an ICE car again for my daily driving.
Tesla is like the Iphone. Initially people doubted the iphone compared to the flip phone. Everyone thought they were over valued. They couldn't figure out how they could make $$$ to justify valuation. Apple obviously is not valued just b/c it makes computers or iphones. It is valued b/c of the other tentacles they have and the ecosystem they have created. Tesla is no different. Once I got an Iphone, I never left. Same with Tesla. I see my Tesla as much as a tech device as a car.
Also, I am riding Tesla in the long term. It has nothing to do with them making a better care. Their value has nothing to do with this. It is the Tentacles that they are starting to develop. Just like Apple, People can try to copy the Iphone and even make a better phone, but they just do not have Apple's Ecosystem. Tesla's Supercharging network alone creates an ecosystem barrier that most other EV makers will never get over. The value of their growing supercharger network is underestimated.
Tesla is def a tech company. Just their mountain of driving data and tech derived from this is invaluable. People may try to copy full autonomous driving but they do not have the real life data Tesla has.
If they achieve Full self driving/Robotaxi, the profit will be astronomical. Other car makers and the airlines will be decimated. Oil companies will be decimated. They will essentially be destroying a large swath of the biggest industries today.
If they achieve low cost, efficient batteries/solar, there will be alof of large industries disappear.
Just as Amaz disrupted B&M, Appl disrupting Media/entertainment/telecom. Tesla potentially could disrupt many major industries.
While I don't own a Tesla, I have family members that own multiple Teslas. First time I drove one was in 2015. Great car. At that point I knew EVs would be the future, but at the end of the day I wasn't blown away enough to run out and buy one. It's still a car. It still gets you from point A to point B, it just does so in a smoother and slicker fashion. It's far less functionally transformative as compared to what the iPhone did when it first came out. EVs will thrive because they are able to drive costs down and be eco friendly at the same time, not because they are materially making your life better in a way you never experienced before.
But I completely disagree with you that Tesla's are iPhones. They are not.
1. iPhones cost $1k or less (generally), and are upgraded every few years with high margins. Cars cost $30K, upgraded less frequently, with razor thin margins.
2. iPhones have a lot of our data stored on their cloud network, so there's more frictional costs to moving to a different provider.
3. iPhones are a device we use regularly throughout the day. Cars? I may drive once or twice at most generally, and they are for short periods of time. I want the best experience for my Phone experience, but driving an EV that's a Tesla vs. another EV in the future....? Not going to be much difference.
4. iPhones can rely on a basic set of models. There are tons of car variations in comparison, and Tesla's options are limited.
Simply put, my next vehicle will very likely be an EV, but after driving a Tesla I don't see anything they are doing that won't be a fairly similar featureset and quality as a competitor. I will likely opt on options that I want and price. I am doubtful that Tesla will be the most cost competitive EV in the market. I do not have any brand loyalty whatsoever for Cars that I do for Phones, for the reasons described above.
The ride sharing and autonomous driving goals are still far out. Sure, we may be 95% there, but the last 5% will be extremely difficult and full autonomous driving requires full confidence of a 100% reliable solution. This has regulatory hurdles, and the advantages Tesla has in big data may be required by law to be shared to other vendors in order for widely adopted autonomous driving to be safe for everyone. Tesla is at the forefront in many ways, but they will not own a monopoly on this technology, and the rollout will be over a very long time horizon.
I think concentrated investment into Tesla stock at this point is a dangerous game to play. Not worth the upside, and far more downside risk. But to each their own.
