The stock price/market cap are absolutely insane. Right now Tesla vehicles are cool, but the stock is cooler. Investors are having FOMO. Musk tweeted the price was too high when it was less than 50% of what it is now.

But if you don't buy now it may keep going up!

I don't think you can take that tweet seriously, he was trolling short sellers that have been suppressing the stock value for a long time. He was playing into that narrative and within a week the stock price was actually up, not down.

ETA: I think you're also seeing a shift in investment strategy for certain companies where individuals are now betting on long term outlooks of a company based upon what they want to happen, rather than the underlying financials of the company. I don't think Tesla is a $300 billion company as it sits today, but in 4-5 years it absolutely could be generating revenues/profits that justify a $1 trillion market cap if things go well.

12thmanfootball said:

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701 shares bought at an average price of $400 back in Dec of 2019.......Tesla has made me a millionaire. I think between Cybertruck, Model Y, and self driving revenue the stock has got a lot of room to run over the next 5 /10 years! Elon has the visn, leadership, and huevos to make it happen!

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Congrats on the risk and being a millionaire!

What profit taking will you be taking short term? Really feels likes bubble territory now as it's gone exponential. I do not have the cojones to get in now even with the massive gains.

Congrats again!

hph6203 said:

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I don't think you can take that tweet seriously, he was trolling short sellers that have been suppressing the stock value for a long time. He was playing into that narrative and within a week the stock price was actually up, not down.

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lol really? is that the spin you've convinced yourself of? The share price dropped over 10% the day he sent that tweet (which by all accounts should be a violation of his SEC probation). I have no idea how the meme momentum rescued the share price out of that stall but it sure as hell wasn't about "trolling the short sellers."

Quote:

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ETA: I think you're also seeing a shift in investment strategy for certain companies where individuals are now betting on long term outlooks of a company based upon what they want to happen, rather than the underlying financials of the company. I don't think Tesla is a $300 billion company as it sits today, but in 4-5 years it absolutely could be generating revenues/profits that justify a $1 trillion market cap if things go well.

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Ok so lets say Tesla achieves that $1t valuation, is the stock price going to keep pace with that expectation? Are we talking about a $10k+ share price for a primarily auto manufacturing company?

It's all baffling.

Things like that happen in bubbles though...

TxAG#2011 said:

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Things like that happen in bubbles though...

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100%. Nearly every tech stock is overvalued and who knows how long this bubble will rise, but of all the bubble stocks which one has the most room to fall after the burst? Like I said, kudos to anyone brave enough to strap in on the TSLA ride. As for me, AMZN has my heart (and my wallet lol).

M.C. Swag said:

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hph6203 said:

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ETA: I think you're also seeing a shift in investment strategy for certain companies where individuals are now betting on long term outlooks of a company based upon what they want to happen, rather than the underlying financials of the company. I don't think Tesla is a $300 billion company as it sits today, but in 4-5 years it absolutely could be generating revenues/profits that justify a $1 trillion market cap if things go well.

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Ok so lets say Tesla achieves that $1t valuation, is the stock price going to keep pace with that expectation? Are we talking about a $10k+ share price for a primarily auto manufacturing company?

It's all baffling.

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I think a lot that valuation is based on the idea of them not being primarily an auto manufacturing company as they continue to develop. Just like Amazon is now a lot more than a company that sells stuff.

fig96 said:

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M.C. Swag said:

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hph6203 said:

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ETA: I think you're also seeing a shift in investment strategy for certain companies where individuals are now betting on long term outlooks of a company based upon what they want to happen, rather than the underlying financials of the company. I don't think Tesla is a $300 billion company as it sits today, but in 4-5 years it absolutely could be generating revenues/profits that justify a $1 trillion market cap if things go well.

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Ok so lets say Tesla achieves that $1t valuation, is the stock price going to keep pace with that expectation? Are we talking about a $10k+ share price for a primarily auto manufacturing company?

It's all baffling.

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I think a lot that valuation is based on the idea of them not being primarily an auto manufacturing company as they continue to develop. Just like Amazon is now a lot more than a company that sells stuff.

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Right, but that's been TSLA's schtick for a while now. Elon comes out with some new presentation about neural links, or space cars, or whatever and it just hypes the stock up. The actual realization of all these "plans/ideas" have what kind of fruition chance? They got a like a $100m grant from the state of California to make a battery swap terminal. Where you just pull in with your car swap batteries then roll out. Had exactly 1 presentation and then no one ever saw it again.

Amazon doesn't do any of that type of stuff. They're monsters of developing their own capital and acquiring businesses that would accommodate whatever market they're trying to capture. It's apples and oranges comparing the two imo.

I'm not saying it was a smart thing to tweet, but he has a history of trolling short sellers. I don't really have to convince myself of anything. The stock was up 2% from pre-tweet value within a week of that tweet and is up 220% since to date, so clearly the market believed it was a troll rather than a real impression of the stock price.. I think the price will come down, it's just not going to happen in the near term as there's too much upward pressure.

The company is primarily an auto manufacturer today, but they've already begun electric operations in Australia and the UK and anticipate them moving into that more heavily in the US in short order. $1t market cap represents a 27-35% annual return over the course of 5 years.

I check this stuff every day and I certainly could be in the distortion field, but I think anyone that thinks the stock price should be valued as nothing more than a growth auto company is missing the goals of the company. Whether they'll ultimately achieve those goals is up for debate, but as it stand they have plenty of opportunity to raise funds and the pathway is certainly achievable. They're operating at a profit currently (even if they have to gain that profit off of regulatory requirements of other manufacturers), which means they've got way more time than was originally projected by short sellers.

No one is making a vehicle that compares on price and capability in the EV market right now, and none of the other auto manufacturers are expanding into other business sectors.


As an aside, like I said, I don't own the stock I'm just riding the upward pressure through a call option and it's done better than anything I've ever owned.

I'm going to leave this right here.

Tesla is on a tear. Is this over speculation of being added to the S&P500?

I bought and sold many times. Last sold at $480 something. Ugh.

Just announced next gigafactory will be near Austin.

eta:

Tesla is just a completely untradeable stock, unless you want the casino experience without having to travel to Vegas.

Revenue has completely flatlined, even with all-time high regulatory credit sales, which should decrease as competitors meet emission standards and have less of a need to purchase them. Their core business of auto sales is unprofitable without them, and hugely so.

Elon has been saying Tesla Energy/Solar will be bigger than its automotive business someday, and yet their own quarterly filings show fewer and fewer MW installed. The Solar Roof was announced in 2016, at which point they had just over 200 MW installed, down from an all time high of over 250 MW in 2015. Per the Q2 2020 filing, they have 27 MW installed currently., down from 35 MW in Q1 2020 and 54 MW in Q4 2019. If anything, since they tout that their solar panels cost 33% that of the industry average, you'd think their deployed solar MW would be going through the roof.

Tesla is priced like the Amazon of today, but without the financials to justify it. Love him or hate him, Elon has captured the spotlight, and that's clearly reflected in their stock price. I'd love to see someone model out how Tesla is worth roughly the same market cap as Toyota. And GM. And Volkswagen. And Ford. Combined. I get that growth is the story, but the numbers just don't support that narrative.

Last time I asked same question (when market cap was half of current) I was told autonomous driving. For the Vegas experience, I then bought some puts (maybe could only afford one or two, lol) and thankfully chickened out for a small gain. This is a hard bubble to predict. To match the other companies you list in production, it seems Tesla would have to build hundreds of factories. So bizarre.

So when the TSLA bubble pops and it is in the S&P it's going to bomb the whole index.

The numbers don't have to make sense in a bubble. There have been stocks in tbe past (Qualcom) that have gone on similar runs. Which means Tesla could go a heck of a lot higher.

I really hope not many took advice of OP and a few of his followers

LCE said:

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I really hope not many took advice of OP and a few of his followers

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All depends on when you buy. Down $200 a share since Tuesday.

Carlo4 said:

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LCE said:

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I really hope not many took advice of OP and a few of his followers

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All depends on when you buy. Down $200 a share since Tuesday.

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I actually made a lot of money on puts last week.

Problem solved.

As someone who has never bought a stock and is looking to spend a little money to start things up...should I buy two shares of TSLA before the split or wait until after?

so that was basically his way of announcing a split

I wouldn't be considering when to buy based upon the split, there's really no telling how it will effect the stock price. It may be an opportunity for long time holders to offload shares they weren't interested in offloading at 1500/share or it may be increased demand from people that held off buying, because 1500/share was anxiety inducing.

Tesla's got a lot of potential good on the horizon, and analysts are starting to come around on the stock. There's certainly plenty of naysayers still out there, but eyes are opening more and more.

-August 31st is the first trading day after the split.
-September 18th is the S&P committee meeting and I'd expect Tesla to be added sometime between now and then.
-September 22nd is Battery Day. Might be some truly game changing announcements that sets them up to reduce the price of their cars to where it becomes comparable to ICE vehicles on sticker price (with much lower cost of ownership), and I'm hoping added utility (vehicle to grid technology).
-Beginning of October you'll get definitive delivery numbers, which should be the highest deliveries in the company's history.
-End of October you'll get earnings announced. I may be optimistic, but I could see them announcing profit even excluding their ZEV credits, which is really the last major criticism the doubters have left and why the price fell after last quarter's earnings. If they do that after announcing a roadmap to substantially reduce the cost of their vehicles then I think the stock will go even crazier than it's already been doing.

Also the potential that autopilots largest update in a long time will be released between now and earnings (but more likely by year end) that Musk has stated allows him to go from home to work with very few if any disengagements.

You should be looking to buy and hold for the next 10 years, so what happens around the split isn't going to substantially impact that purchase.

Current TSLA PE is 834. MSFT and AAPL PE is 36.

TSLA could capture 25% of the worlds EV market, seeing as though every vehicle in the world will eventually be an EV and assuming Tesla continues costs declines in manufacturing these cars on their historical rate, the profit down the road could be astronomical (and this is just the vehicle side of their business).

I love Tesla fans. The projected profits chart I posted earlier as a joke really is their reality.

It's so weird that nobody posted things like this about Nissan when the Leaf led the way with EVs and had ~50% market share.

The Leaf had a range of what? 90 miles? It was a commuter car for eco-warriors that in no way could be the only car for the majority of households. The average owner probably had a Leaf and a Prius in their driveway. Their cost was about the same as a Tesla new, lower range, bad battery that was negatively impacted by cold weather (degradation of the leaf battery occurred much much quicker) and they lost their value like crazy. You can snag one for about $6k now. Teslas on the other hand maintain their value, lowest range is 240 miles and still cost about the same.

Compare an Audi E-Tron to a Model Y. The E-Tron gets 222 miles of range, goes 0-60 in 5.5 seconds and caps out for charging at 150 kW. A similarly priced (within $500) Model Y gets 292 miles of range, 0-60 in 3.4 seconds and charges at 250 kW. That's typical of their competition right now, and the main difference is at that price Tesla is making a profit on each car sold and Audi is probably losing money as they have to pay substantially more for their battery packs.

That's on the same size battery pack by the way. That's how much more efficient the Tesla vehicles are than their competition. Audi is where Tesla was 8 years ago. Basically at the same spot where Nissan was with the Leaf when they stopped trying to innovate.


There are companies that can compete on price, but not specs. There are companies that can compete on specs, but not price. There's no one that competes on both. That's the difference between the Leaf and Tesla. The Leaf had the market share they had, because hardly anyone else was trying at that price point, because it had to be a niche product at that time, now other companies are releasing cars and they don't compare.


I don't know if Tesla will maintain its market share or not, but so far the competition is underwhelming and years behind on tech, and on battery acquisition, which is the most important differentiator. We'll see how far behind they are on September 22nd when Tesla reveals their redesigned Model S.

Wouldn't be surprised to see another price cut for the Model 3 and Y within the next year to get a more clearly defined stack of products as their cost to manufacture drops. There will be more stories about demand problems when that happens. They'll keep selling the vehicles they manufacture and they'll open another factory in China and Europe (UK). Then expand into Australia and Northeastern US.

Expecting in the next month their cash on hand is going to go from around 8 billion to between 15 and 30 billion, which should allow rapid expansion of their manufacturing capabilities. We shall see.

Just FYI. The statement of lowest range of 240 miles isn't very real world. I have a car rated for 330 miles of range but rarely get in excess of 240. To get the full range you have to be in a scenario where you will be near a quick charger or your house when you Get near zero. Most of the time you end up filling up when you get below 100 miles because unless you are traveling cross country it's difficult to predict the where you'll be when you need to charge. There aren't enough quick chargers around To allow you to go under 100 miles without worrying.

In addition if you are heading somewhere for the day that doesn't have a quick charger... Say Houston to Somerville and back, you better have a full charge when you leave because there is nowhere along the route to get a quick fill up. Tesla really should be putting super chargers everywhere ASAP. Whomever saturates the quick charge market first will win.

Ok, Elon.

It's all a marketing hype game. Tesla is more sexy than Nissan.

Teslas dominance will decline as other luxury brands enter the space.

Where Tesla wins for the foreseeable future is that Tesla is the "electric" car in the mind of consumers who are shopping for electric.

Tesla is definitely in the lead because of their charger network and autopilot. Those two combined make it a great road trip car, however it's very much in the infant stage. There are several places that are difficult or impossible to get to in a Tesla. Recently spent a month in Wyoming and was constantly having to sacrifice where and when I would travel to accommodate the very limited charging options.

Tesla might be in the lead now, but the door is open if someone else standardized and deployed a rapid charger network.

Tesla is light years ahead on autonomous driving based on real time data they have collected. Billions of miles ahead.