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hph6203
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In reply to jamaggie06 • 9:47p, 5/14/20
AG
There's a roadmap that I see in my head for this company and so far they've done a pretty good job of following it, and grid scale storage is hardly high up on that list.

-Announce million mile battery/new battery production methods.
-As part of million mile battery announcement reveal vehicle to grid capabilities (for whole home battery back up/energy consumption optimization)
-Announce Giga Texas factory for battery production/Cybertruck manufacturing
-Ramp Model Y Production in Fremont
-Ramp Model 3 Production in Shanghai with new battery chemistry/production methods
-Ramp Model Y production in Shanghai with new battery chemistry/production methods
-Complete Giga Berlin and begin Model 3/Y production with new battery chemistry/production methods
-Complete Giga Texas factory and begin manufacturing of Cybertruck with new battery technology
-Shift previous battery production lines to grid scale storage
-Begin Production on Semi
-Reveal final Roadster design and announce $25,000 Model 2 commuter car
-Announce battery repurposing program that allows customers to exchange their battery pack for new pack with new batteries at profit sustaining discounted rate. Repurpose those batteries and warranty claim batteries as energy storage devices.

I don't have problems with them raising funds to increase production. Right now they're the market leader for electric vehicles despite infrastructure issues where they have to ship vehicles to meet the demands of foreign purchases. If I thought they were raising funds because they won't be able to produce their vehicles profitably between all their revenue channels for their vehicles I'd be concerned, but I don't believe that's the case. I've been hearing peak demand for a awhile now or that subsidy reductions would reduce demand, but I haven't seen that happen yet.

ETA: Autonomy isn't even on my radar in the near term, their Auto Pilot suite as an ever improving driver assist system is enough of a value add to the car to drive purchases, then add the additional utility of a vehicle that can help you save on your electric bill/make you more comfortable during a blackout and I think it's best if they don't drop prices as battery costs decrease.
.
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Fizban
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In reply to hph6203 • 9:00a, 5/15/20
hph6203 said:
There's a roadmap that I see in my head for this company and so far they've done a pretty good job of following it, and grid scale storage is hardly high up on that list.

-Announce million mile battery/new battery production methods.
-As part of million mile battery announcement reveal vehicle to grid capabilities (for whole home battery back up/energy consumption optimization)
-Announce Giga Texas factory for battery production/Cybertruck manufacturing
-Ramp Model Y Production in Fremont
-Ramp Model 3 Production in Shanghai with new battery chemistry/production methods
-Ramp Model Y production in Shanghai with new battery chemistry/production methods
-Complete Giga Berlin and begin Model 3/Y production with new battery chemistry/production methods
-Complete Giga Texas factory and begin manufacturing of Cybertruck with new battery technology
-Shift previous battery production lines to grid scale storage
-Begin Production on Semi
-Reveal final Roadster design and announce $25,000 Model 2 commuter car
-Announce battery repurposing program that allows customers to exchange their battery pack for new pack with new batteries at profit sustaining discounted rate. Repurpose those batteries and warranty claim batteries as energy storage devices.

I don't have problems with them raising funds to increase production. Right now they're the market leader for electric vehicles despite infrastructure issues where they have to ship vehicles to meet the demands of foreign purchases. If I thought they were raising funds because they won't be able to produce their vehicles profitably between all their revenue channels for their vehicles I'd be concerned, but I don't believe that's the case. I've been hearing peak demand for a awhile now or that subsidy reductions would reduce demand, but I haven't seen that happen yet.

ETA: Autonomy isn't even on my radar in the near term, their Auto Pilot suite as an ever improving driver assist system is enough of a value add to the car to drive purchases, then add the additional utility of a vehicle that can help you save on your electric bill/make you more comfortable during a blackout and I think it's best if they don't drop prices as battery costs decrease.

Good roadmap and very much in line with what I have been expecting.

The main thing I would throw in is that the grid/energy business has the potential to be as big or bigger than the automotive part. (Elon Musk himself has predicted as much and I see no reason to doubt him here.)
https://techcrunch.com/2019/10/23/elon-musk-predicts-tesla-energy-could-be-bigger-than-its-ev-business/

Basically imagine Tesla's existing software for grid optimization/electricity buying/selling:
https://www.tesla.com/support/autobidder

Combined with its "virtual powerplant" concept:
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/08/tesla-virtual-power-plant-in-australia-outperforms-expectations/

...only using some amount of the battery capacity in Tesla's fleet of cars. (presumably the new ones with the million+ mile batteries)

The concept would be that the cars charge from the grid when prices are low late at night and in the early morning hours. Most owners would drive to work during much of the day, but when they return at the end of the day it is right around the time electricity hits its peak pricing. At that point the cars could return some of the cheap power to the grid, in accordance with parameters set by the owner.

Even if we assume they were only using 20-35% of the battery's capacity that would be an immense amount of power. (A Model 3/Y has a ~75kwh battery so 1/3 would be 25kwh. Now multiply that by 100,000 Tesla sales in the US per year.)

In the space of a year or two Tesla would be positioned to dominate a chunk of the US/global electricity market.


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hph6203
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In reply to Fizban • 10:10a, 5/15/20
AG
Don't think they have to wait for vehicles to have to million mile battery, as the degradation from grid storage is substantial, but not to the extent it would be inconvenient to the customer or wildly expensive to Tesla. Replacing current packs with current packs could be a problem, but as long as you have the million mile battery as a backstop I think you can launch with current fleet vehicles.
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CivilAg10
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3:07p, 5/15/20
AG
Just saw where kxan is citing a report that Tesla will build a new factory in Austin

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/report-tesla-to-build-next-factory-in-austin/
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hph6203
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In reply to CivilAg10 • 3:47p, 5/15/20
AG
Original article: https://electrek.co/2020/05/15/tesla-factory-austin-texas/

End of the year seems absolutely insane even for general assembly. Then I assume they'd build manufacturing lines around the factory to begin making batteries/drivetrains.

Gonna be a tough juggling act and may end up seeing some difficulties like they had with Model 3. It'll be interesting, hope it's something they announce when they discuss the battery so we can have more detail on the plans.
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12thmanfootball
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3:34p, 5/16/20
AG
The battery and investor day (somewhere between May and August) will quickly drive Tesla's share price over $1000...........buy your shares now, they may never be in the 3 digits again!!!

If they build the "TeraFactory" in Austin, I would venture to guess that they'd build on the East side of Austin near the N/S Toll Road, Elon will probably build it next to the Formula One Track LOL!!!
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bmks270
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4:44p, 5/16/20
AG
Nothing turns out the way Musk describes it, not to say they don't happen, but they typically change drastically in that the scope is less than Musk's original idea and the timeline is delayed at least a year beyond Musk's original projection.
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12thmanfootball
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7:24a, 5/23/20
AG
Quote:
Nothing turns out the way Musk describes it, not to say they don't happen, but they typically change drastically in that the scope is less than Musk's original idea and the timeline is delayed at least a year beyond Musk's original projection.

But he does usually get them done. And if you look at all of the things he and his companies have completed between SpaceEX, Tesla, the Boring Company, etc., it is utterly amazing.
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jamaggie06
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In reply to 12thmanfootball • 8:14a, 5/23/20
AG
But he hasn't figure out how to "get them done" while making any money; you know, kind of the whole point of a business. And given all the insane subsidies they've been provided and that their competitors have to literally pay them every time they sell one of their own products , its mind boggling that they cant make any money for the better part of 15 years.
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Fizban
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In reply to jamaggie06 • 12:59p, 5/23/20
jamaggie06 said:
But he hasn't figure out how to "get them done" while making any money; you know, kind of the whole point of a business. And given all the insane subsidies they've been provided and that their competitors have to literally pay them every time they sell one of their own products , its mind boggling that they cant make any money for the better part of 15 years.


Profitable the last three quarters.... and they are still getting their feet under themselves. It isn't reasonable to expect a company to enter a hugely capital intensive industry and be profitable from day 1.
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hph6203
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In reply to jamaggie06 • 1:04p, 5/23/20
AG
Profitability is nice, expansion in this situation is more important. They have a lead in EV manufacturing and maintaining that is more important than short term profits. If they aren't regularly profitable once they've begun manufacturing Cybertruck and European Model 3/Y at scale then that's when I'd start to worry.
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Ulrich
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In reply to hph6203 • 1:15p, 5/23/20
hph6203 said:
Profitability is nice, expansion in this situation is more important. They have a lead in EV manufacturing and maintaining that is more important than short term profits. If they aren't regularly profitable once they've begun manufacturing Cybertruck and European Model 3/Y at scale then that's when I'd start to worry.
I thought we were supposed to start worrying if the 3 didn't get them over the hump?

Setting aside questions about their financial position/performance, it's interesting to me that I still see more model S than model 3 around town. Maybe that's just because it's so much harder to sell cars into Texas, it's worth it to negotiate those difficulties to buy and sell an S but not for a 3.
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jamaggie06
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In reply to hph6203 • 2:42p, 5/23/20
AG
hph6203 said:
Profitability is nice, expansion in this situation is more important. They have a lead in EV manufacturing and maintaining that is more important than short term profits. If they aren't regularly profitable once they've begun manufacturing Cybertruck and European Model 3/Y at scale then that's when I'd start to worry.



I love it! And when that fails to happen, the story will change once again, lest you forget, that's what was said about the S & X; the 3! Just wait till the 3 is up and running and selling at scale! Profits will come then! Um, can we have $2 billion more in capital please?

Or Tesla Energy (was going to be bigger and more profitable than Tesla Auto by 2020). "Can we have another $2 billion in capital please?"

The story always expands, always changes, and profitability never comes.

In the end, this is a business. And while I get that the stock has absurdly produced great returns for any investors who bought in early, it has done so on the same basis as a ponzi scheme; future investors want in on all the amazing promises, future growth, etc. but nowhere are investors actually making money via the company. They make money via the next group of fools to buy into the narrative.

I mean, go back to 2015. Every analyst price target for the future was based on outlandish assumptions and growth by 2020. Literally zero of those things have been met; robo taxis, solar roofs on a million homes, a million model 3's at 25% margin, etc. and what was the discounted value estimated to be Back then? Like $350 to $500. Well, its 2020 and none of those things have come true, no profits were ever made, and now, bc there's newer and more fools to buy the newer and grander promises, the stock is basically double what analysts thought it would be worth, Assuming they actually reached all the milestones set forth in their pricing.

That said, people like the cars. If you like them, buy one. I think there nice. My objections to the company are based soley on the business and operational side of things. My objection to the stock price is merely an observation about how disconnected it is from any type of fundamental analysis. But I dont short it. I play the volatility with options (both ways) now and again, but I have no stake in the game.

And I will add, it does irk me that we all paid taxes so that rich people could buy high end status luxury cars at a discount they didnt need, while the rest of us who may want a more affordable version, get no such benefit. Its ass backward. Blame the gov't (which I do).
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WoMD
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In reply to Ulrich • 4:16p, 5/23/20
Ulrich said:
hph6203 said:
Profitability is nice, expansion in this situation is more important. They have a lead in EV manufacturing and maintaining that is more important than short term profits. If they aren't regularly profitable once they've begun manufacturing Cybertruck and European Model 3/Y at scale then that's when I'd start to worry.
I thought we were supposed to start worrying if the 3 didn't get them over the hump?

Setting aside questions about their financial position/performance, it's interesting to me that I still see more model S than model 3 around town. Maybe that's just because it's so much harder to sell cars into Texas, it's worth it to negotiate those difficulties to buy and sell an S but not for a 3.

Weird. Up and down California, I see more 3s than Ss, probably 5-10 to 1, depending on area. Even in SF they're probably about even, if anything. Here in central coastal California the ratio is probably 10x.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to WoMD • 4:56p, 5/23/20
AG
WoMD said:
Ulrich said:
hph6203 said:
Profitability is nice, expansion in this situation is more important. They have a lead in EV manufacturing and maintaining that is more important than short term profits. If they aren't regularly profitable once they've begun manufacturing Cybertruck and European Model 3/Y at scale then that's when I'd start to worry.
I thought we were supposed to start worrying if the 3 didn't get them over the hump?

Setting aside questions about their financial position/performance, it's interesting to me that I still see more model S than model 3 around town. Maybe that's just because it's so much harder to sell cars into Texas, it's worth it to negotiate those difficulties to buy and sell an S but not for a 3.

Weird. Up and down California, I see more 3s than Ss, probably 5-10 to 1, depending on area. Even in SF they're probably about even, if anything. Here in central coastal California the ratio is probably 10x.


California isn't like the rest of the country though. I don't think I've ever seen a 3 in SA, but I've seen a fair number of S's
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hph6203
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6:00p, 5/23/20
AG
I see way, way more 3's in Dallas than S's.
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Ulrich
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 6:21p, 5/23/20
ABATTBQ11 said:
WoMD said:
Ulrich said:
hph6203 said:
Profitability is nice, expansion in this situation is more important. They have a lead in EV manufacturing and maintaining that is more important than short term profits. If they aren't regularly profitable once they've begun manufacturing Cybertruck and European Model 3/Y at scale then that's when I'd start to worry.
I thought we were supposed to start worrying if the 3 didn't get them over the hump?

Setting aside questions about their financial position/performance, it's interesting to me that I still see more model S than model 3 around town. Maybe that's just because it's so much harder to sell cars into Texas, it's worth it to negotiate those difficulties to buy and sell an S but not for a 3.

Weird. Up and down California, I see more 3s than Ss, probably 5-10 to 1, depending on area. Even in SF they're probably about even, if anything. Here in central coastal California the ratio is probably 10x.


California isn't like the rest of the country though. I don't think I've ever seen a 3 in SA, but I've seen a fair number of S's
I'm also in San Antonio. Definitely see a model 3 from time to time, but it's rare. Of course, they don't stand out the way a Model S does.
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LostInLA07
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9:07p, 5/23/20
AG
I'm in The Woodlands and there are Teslas everywhere. Mostly Model S and X but quite a few 3s as well. You'd be challenged to find a parking lot without a Tesla here.
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fig96
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In reply to hph6203 • 12:02a, 5/25/20
AG
hph6203 said:
I see way, way more 3's in Dallas than S's.
Same in Austin.
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12thmanfootball
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10:51p, 5/25/20
AG
Quote:
But he hasn't figure out how to "get them done" while making any money; you know, kind of the whole point of a business. And given all the insane subsidies they've been provided and that their competitors have to literally pay them every time they sell one of their own products , its mind boggling that they cant make any money for the better part of 15 years.
Look at 3 outta the last 4 quarters at Tesla and tell me Elon hasn't made any money...........look at Amazon's first ten years, they weren't turning a profit either, just growing incredible fast and outrunning the competition just like Tesla.
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tremble
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In reply to 12thmanfootball • 1:42p, 5/26/20
AG
12thmanfootball said:
Quote:
But he hasn't figure out how to "get them done" while making any money; you know, kind of the whole point of a business. And given all the insane subsidies they've been provided and that their competitors have to literally pay them every time they sell one of their own products , its mind boggling that they cant make any money for the better part of 15 years.
Look at 3 outta the last 4 quarters at Tesla and tell me Elon hasn't made any money...........look at Amazon's first ten years, they weren't turning a profit either, just growing incredible fast and outrunning the competition just like Tesla.
The idea that a modern "tech" centric company must follow the business model of the titans of yesteryear is so odd to me. I get that Tesla is primarily manufacturing things, but they've already done for EVs and batteries what others considered impossible.

Amazon, Netflix, FB, etc. "lost" money for years but plowed so much of their revenue back into R&D that it has never mattered.

With SpaceX essentially turning into a golden goose, and it being run entirely by Musk with the USG, I don't see anyway he does not quickly rival Bezos for net wealth. Are you going to be against that guy? Hell, just off a percentage of what I see SpaceX doing he could probably fund Tesla in the future.
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fig96
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In reply to tremble • 2:00p, 5/26/20
AG
I mean, the whole first page of this thread is about how the stock is about to tank from a little over two years ago...when it somewhere around $260.

For their sake I hope those folks didn't sell.
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jamaggie06
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2:10p, 5/26/20
AG
Quote:
Amazon, Netflix, FB, etc. "lost" money for years but plowed so much of their revenue back into R&D that it has never mattere

Well, Netflix did struggle with cash flow, but Amazon was putting its cash back into the business. The same cannot be said for Tesla; it has continuously put external capital into its business to stay afloat and promote growth. What will the next capital raise be? Number six? Number seven? Not to mention the billions in subsidies it has received.

In addition, they are a manufacturing company that runs a HUGE negative working capital. In essence, they have borrowed additional billions from their suppliers. At some point, that working capital has to flip, unless you believe Tesla has found a new business paradigm where others pay you to operate your business.
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12thmanfootball
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4:40p, 5/26/20
AG
Quote:
Well, Netflix did struggle with cash flow, but Amazon was putting its cash back into the business. The same cannot be said for Tesla; it has continuously put external capital into its business to stay afloat and promote growth. What will the next capital raise be? Number six? Number seven? Not to mention the billions in subsidies it has received.

In addition, they are a manufacturing company that runs a HUGE negative working capital. In essence, they have borrowed additional billions from their suppliers. At some point, that working capital has to flip, unless you believe Tesla has found a new business paradigm where others pay you to operate your business.
[url=https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2942482/0][/url][url=https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2942482/0][/url]



You need to do some research. When Tesla expands their Auto Insurance Business (already have started this in California), their V2G (Vehicle to Grid with their new "Autobidder" software), New and Superior dry-electrode batteries, new Tesla Giga and Tera Factories (producing gross margins of 30% or more on vehicles), Cybertruck and Tesla Semi, this company and the stock will go nuclear. Go ahead keep trying to find holes in the company. In the end, you will see this is another Amazon with very few legitimate competitors.
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jamaggie06
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In reply to 12thmanfootball • 6:21p, 5/26/20
AG
12thmanfootball said:
Quote:
Well, Netflix did struggle with cash flow, but Amazon was putting its cash back into the business. The same cannot be said for Tesla; it has continuously put external capital into its business to stay afloat and promote growth. What will the next capital raise be? Number six? Number seven? Not to mention the billions in subsidies it has received.

In addition, they are a manufacturing company that runs a HUGE negative working capital. In essence, they have borrowed additional billions from their suppliers. At some point, that working capital has to flip, unless you believe Tesla has found a new business paradigm where others pay you to operate your business.
[url=https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2942482/0][/url][url=https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2942482/0][/url]



You need to do some research. When Tesla expands their Auto Insurance Business (already have started this in California), their V2G (Vehicle to Grid with their new "Autobidder" software), New and Superior dry-electrode batteries, new Tesla Giga and Tera Factories (producing gross margins of 30% or more on vehicles), Cybertruck and Tesla Semi, this company and the stock will go nuclear. Go ahead keep trying to find holes in the company. In the end, you will see this is another Amazon with very few legitimate competitors.


LoLoL

And then Tesla Finance is gonna replace Goldmansachs and JP Morgan. And Tesla Online will replace Amazon! Tesla literally gonna be the king of everything!

Yet, they can't make a dime w/o their competitors being forced to pay them for every product their competition sells, or billions in gov't subsidies.

And all that **** you mention is probably the biggest problem with Tesla. If they focused on the auto business, they probably could have it be profitable. Instead, there's always the next story to hype so they can justify raising more capital. Trucks, semis, roofs, insurance, powerpack, robo taxis, SUVs, etc.


Still glad all us middle class schmucks got to pay $7,500 towards rich people's luxury status symbols for years on end before any reasonably affordable versions were ever offered.
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DeLaHonta
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In reply to jamaggie06 • 7:52p, 5/26/20
AG


What about this Tesla projected profits chart do you not understand? Elon said it's going to happen, so there is literally no chance that it won't happen exactly as planned.
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hph6203
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In reply to jamaggie06 • 9:04p, 5/26/20
AG
jamaggie06 said:
12thmanfootball said:
Quote:
Well, Netflix did struggle with cash flow, but Amazon was putting its cash back into the business. The same cannot be said for Tesla; it has continuously put external capital into its business to stay afloat and promote growth. What will the next capital raise be? Number six? Number seven? Not to mention the billions in subsidies it has received.

In addition, they are a manufacturing company that runs a HUGE negative working capital. In essence, they have borrowed additional billions from their suppliers. At some point, that working capital has to flip, unless you believe Tesla has found a new business paradigm where others pay you to operate your business.
[url=https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2942482/0][/url][url=https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2942482/0][/url]



You need to do some research. When Tesla expands their Auto Insurance Business (already have started this in California), their V2G (Vehicle to Grid with their new "Autobidder" software), New and Superior dry-electrode batteries, new Tesla Giga and Tera Factories (producing gross margins of 30% or more on vehicles), Cybertruck and Tesla Semi, this company and the stock will go nuclear. Go ahead keep trying to find holes in the company. In the end, you will see this is another Amazon with very few legitimate competitors.


LoLoL

And then Tesla Finance is gonna replace Goldmansachs and JP Morgan. And Tesla Online will replace Amazon! Tesla literally gonna be the king of everything!

Yet, they can't make a dime w/o their competitors being forced to pay them for every product their competition sells, or billions in gov't subsidies.

And all that **** you mention is probably the biggest problem with Tesla. If they focused on the auto business, they probably could have it be profitable. Instead, there's always the next story to hype so they can justify raising more capital. Trucks, semis, roofs, insurance, powerpack, robo taxis, SUVs, etc.


Still glad all us middle class schmucks got to pay $7,500 towards rich people's luxury status symbols for years on end before any reasonably affordable versions were ever offered.
You paid a couple of dollars over the course of a decade to help create a new technology that in the long run will benefit you. In reality it was largely rich people funding other rich people's tax refunds.

I also think your obsession with profitability is short sighted. Yes, they absolutely could be profitable if they just focused on making the Model 3, didn't diversify their product offerings and just deked them out every quarter. Rather than do that they're building more factories, which lets them diversify their product offerings, gain market share and simplify their deliveries so they don't have to stick a car on a ship and send it across an ocean, which improves their global profitability.

The auto industry is going to go zero emission by mandate, they can either be the market leader in that by expanding as quickly as they can, or they can be an also ran if the legacy auto companies can re-work their production lines and engineer a vehicle they can sell profitably to the mass market.


You also like to keep harping on fleet credits that they're selling as if that's a negative, but you're missing the point. These automakers are so far behind in developing reasonable low emission/"zero emission" vehicles that they'd rather pay Tesla to fleet pool than develop their own vehicles at a loss with incentives to limit losses. They're helping Tesla fund their growth and gain in market share. Tesla's auto business operates profitably, their losses are due to expansion. That's not a bad thing.


As an aside, I'd drop the "lol" from your posts. It kills people's willingness to take your posts seriously and you're not making terrible points. Your views are about what Tesla is, and people that are optimistic about Tesla is about what it can be.
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Chipotlemonger
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In reply to hph6203 • 1:33p, 5/27/20
AG
Good points.

It's easier for some just to hate on TSLA and Musk. I think we've all been hearing from some that TSLA is going out of business in 6 months...for years and years. It has gotten very 'bipartisan' like.
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bmks270
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In reply to DeLaHonta • 9:39p, 5/28/20
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DeLaHonta said:


What about this Tesla projected profits chart do you not understand? Elon said it's going to happen, so there is literally no chance that it won't happen exactly as planned.


It's pretty hilarious to look at Tesla profitability timeline predictions From 5+ years ago.

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jamaggie06
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In reply to bmks270 • 9:36a, 5/29/20
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And remember, TSLA stock is MORE valuable TODAY than any of the price targets & financial models used by analysts five years ago that assumed by TODAY, Tesla would be manufacturing millions of vehicles a year, FSD would be ubiquitous, the Model 3 was a $35,000 "everyman" car, Tesla energy would be bigger than Tesla auto, a million solar roofs, etc. All of that was assumed to have happened by now, and all of that revenue, growth, profit, etc. was estimated to be worth about $350 to $400 a share... five years ago. It is TODAY, and literally none of that has happened. Small bits of some of it has happened... and the stock is worth $800 a share.

Perhaps Musk has found a new paradigm in business; just keep promising newer, better, and BIGGER things. Sell the story. Don't worry about financial results, or whether any of the predictions or stories every materialize in any meaningful way. Oh wait, it's not new. It's been done throughout history and every time... the results are not good for those who invest in such companies.

Tesla is the only company I've seen where reducing the relative equity of every investor somehow creates value and increases the total value of the company. But it happens a lot with Tesla (they've done, what? Six secondary stock offerings, and several times, the stock rose on the news that all investors equity stake was being diluted).

??? That's why I don't invest and do limited trading with options. Volatility is great for options trading. Trying to go long or short Tesla as an investment.... Yikes. Don't have the stomach for that.

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fig96
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In reply to jamaggie06 • 9:45a, 5/29/20
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jamaggie06 said:
And remember, TSLA stock is MORE valuable TODAY than any of the price targets & financial models used by analysts five years ago that assumed by TODAY, Tesla would be manufacturing millions of vehicles a year, FSD would be ubiquitous, the Model 3 was a $35,000 "everyman" car, Tesla energy would be bigger than Tesla auto, a million solar roofs, etc. All of that was assumed to have happened by now, and all of that revenue, growth, profit, etc. was estimated to be worth about $350 to $400 a share... five years ago. It is TODAY, and literally none of that has happened. Small bits of some of it has happened... and the stock is worth $800 a share.
Probably worth noting that the Model 3 is inside the top 20 models sold in the US for 2020 and was in the top 30 last year.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/
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gvine07
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10:22a, 5/29/20
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Musk gets a lot of flak and it's hard to argue he doesn't deserve it when he tweets the stock price is too high, but if stock price/market cap is the name of the game he's winning.

Every big company goes through a bunch of changes, especially early. I listened to a podcast with Mark Zuckerberg from ~2007ish and he said something to the effect of "there's no intention of ever combining college Facebook and high school Facebook, there's no reason for that to ever happen..." IBM, too, has completely changed direction in recent years and sold everything they spent decades chasing after.

I'm not saying Tesla has the standing power as those companies, but it's not like new companies always nail their target timelines or product offerings. It sure seems like Tesla has more than a fighting chance to survive.
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jamaggie06
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1:52p, 6/1/20
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Quote:
You also like to keep harping on fleet credits that they're selling as if that's a negative, but you're missing the point. These automakers are so far behind in developing reasonable low emission/"zero emission" vehicles that they'd rather pay Tesla to fleet pool than develop their own vehicles at a loss with incentives to limit losses. They're helping Tesla fund their growth and gain in market share. Tesla's auto business operates profitably, their losses are due to expansion. That's not a bad thing.
But that's just government picking winners and losers. Forcing Pepsi to pay Coke every time Pepsi sells a soda can isn't a sustainable practice, and its not "amazing" when over time, Coke becomes the dominant player in the market; it's simply a mathematical reality.



Quote:
Every big company goes through a bunch of changes, especially early. I listened to a podcast with Mark Zuckerberg from ~2007ish and he said something to the effect of "there's no intention of ever combining college Facebook and high school Facebook, there's no reason for that to ever happen..." IBM, too, has completely changed direction in recent years and sold everything they spent decades chasing after.
Early? Ok. How early is "early" for Tesla? It's been sixteen years since Musk took over.




And it looks like they still have quite a ways to go with Self Driving. People act like FSD and robo-taxis are around the corner: Tesla's are still plowing head first unimpeded into the broadside, or turned over side, of 18-wheelers. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/autopilot-watch-a-tesla-slam-into-an-overturned-truck-at-a-high-speed-2020-06-01?mod=home-page

All we hear about is "Tesla's insurmountable lead" in the realm of self driving, but perhaps that's simply b/c they're the only company out there willing to beta test on ts own customers? Maybe it speaks to the brand loyalty and power, but I can't imagine that if you replaced the word Tesla with Ford, or with GM, that this story wouldn't read entirely differently and that there'd be massive investigations and calls for inquiries, etc. just like any other incident these manufacturer's have dealt with over the years, from faulty airbags, to faulty ignitions, to unintended acceleration, etc.



Anyway, if you like Tesla's, by all means, buy one. I've heard they're fun to drive. I'm not here to bash the car. My issue with the company is strictly based on its business case. And sorry, it's nothing like amazon, which for the record, is only ten years older than Tesla.
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12thmanfootball
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7:51p, 6/1/20
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Quote:
LoLoL

And then Tesla Finance is gonna replace Goldmansachs and JP Morgan. And Tesla Online will replace Amazon! Tesla literally gonna be the king of everything!

Yet, they can't make a dime w/o their competitors being forced to pay them for every product their competition sells, or billions in gov't subsidies.

And all that **** you mention is probably the biggest problem with Tesla. If they focused on the auto business, they probably could have it be profitable. Instead, there's always the next story to hype so they can justify raising more capital. Trucks, semis, roofs, insurance, powerpack, robo taxis, SUVs, etc.


Still glad all us middle class schmucks got to pay $7,500 towards rich people's luxury status symbols for years on end before any reasonably affordable versions were ever offered.
$898 stock close today.
SpaceEx just sent to astronauts to the Space Station (and will reuse the rockets, again).
Tesla hasn't wasted the Billions per year that Ford and GM spend on advertising.
Musk is changing the world for the better and you are focusing on subsidies that for the most part have been discontinued in the US (on a federal level)!

Keep trying to poke holes in the business, you're doing great!!!
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hph6203
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In reply to jamaggie06 • 9:56p, 6/1/20
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jamaggie06 said:
Quote:
You also like to keep harping on fleet credits that they're selling as if that's a negative, but you're missing the point. These automakers are so far behind in developing reasonable low emission/"zero emission" vehicles that they'd rather pay Tesla to fleet pool than develop their own vehicles at a loss with incentives to limit losses. They're helping Tesla fund their growth and gain in market share. Tesla's auto business operates profitably, their losses are due to expansion. That's not a bad thing.
But that's just government picking winners and losers. Forcing Pepsi to pay Coke every time Pepsi sells a soda can isn't a sustainable practice, and its not "amazing" when over time, Coke becomes the dominant player in the market; it's simply a mathematical reality.
Fiat Chrysler had a choice, meet EU fleet regulations, pay fines, or pay to pool their fleet with another that had lower emissions. They chose the last of those options, because it was the most financially responsible thing to do. That is not the government picking winners and losers, it's a company failing to meet standards and the government allowing them to lessen their burden. That's one company benefiting from their innovations and another being punished for lagging.


jmaggie06 said:
Quote:
Every big company goes through a bunch of changes, especially early. I listened to a podcast with Mark Zuckerberg from ~2007ish and he said something to the effect of "there's no intention of ever combining college Facebook and high school Facebook, there's no reason for that to ever happen..." IBM, too, has completely changed direction in recent years and sold everything they spent decades chasing after.
Early? Ok. How early is "early" for Tesla? It's been sixteen years since Musk took over.

You have yourself said they can likely operate profitably as just an auto company, so I don't really understand what you're looking for. They're growing. That's their goal, not profitability.




jmaggie06 said:
And it looks like they still have quite a ways to go with Self Driving. People act like FSD and robo-taxis are around the corner: Tesla's are still plowing head first unimpeded into the broadside, or turned over side, of 18-wheelers. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/autopilot-watch-a-tesla-slam-into-an-overturned-truck-at-a-high-speed-2020-06-01?mod=home-page
This is not a story, because a driver assist system failed to stop a vehicle to avoid a crash. It is a story, because it was a Tesla that did it. Tesla generates clicks. It's why they don't have to pay for advertising. I'm sure there are many, many stories of a Mercedes failing to avoid an accident, but no one will click on that. I'm sure, and have seen, many videos of Teslas avoiding accidents. The system is surely not perfect, but perfect is not the goal. That driver should have been paying attention.

jmaggie06 said:
All we hear about is "Tesla's insurmountable lead" in the realm of self driving, but perhaps that's simply b/c they're the only company out there willing to beta test on ts own customers? Maybe it speaks to the brand loyalty and power, but I can't imagine that if you replaced the word Tesla with Ford, or with GM, that this story wouldn't read entirely differently and that there'd be massive investigations and calls for inquiries, etc. just like any other incident these manufacturer's have dealt with over the years, from faulty airbags, to faulty ignitions, to unintended acceleration, etc.
This is where you're showing your lack of attention on the technology. I don't think anyone that does believes that Tesla currently has the best FSD system. Currently that belongs to Waymo and Cruise. What people say about Tesla is that their approach to FSD is the best and most likely to achieve it first (there is debate on this). Tesla does not geofence their FSD system and they do not have it set up to operate solely in good weather environments.

In order to achieve FSD they need to gather and label as much data as they can, which is part of why their focus is on manufacturing and selling more cars rather than maximizing profits. They need more factories to do that, and factories cost money. As the system improves people will use it more, which means more data, and as they manufacture more vehicles they'll acquire more data.



jmaggie06 said:
Anyway, if you like Tesla's, by all means, buy one. I've heard they're fun to drive. I'm not here to bash the car. My issue with the company is strictly based on its business case. And sorry, it's nothing like amazon, which for the record, is only ten years older than Tesla.
I think you're wrong, but neither of us knows for sure. You have, in this thread, stated that you believe they could operate their auto business profitably and I believe that's pretty evident. Within 2 1/2 years (Model Y ramp, new battery technology, Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, we'll have a very very clear picture of what this company is going to be, and I think you're going to ultimately admit you were wrong.

I have a financial investment in Tesla, but it's not something I can't easily afford to lose. More than anything I think that electric vehicles, and the vision for the energy grid they propose is far better for people in the future than what we currently have. It's more efficient and ultimately will make electricity and transportation cheaper for everyone. That's without considering environmental aspects of it.
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